Saturday, April 14, 2012

Path to the Draft, 4/2


Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Charles Davis, Brian Baldinger, Mike Mayock, Michelle Beisner, Bucky Brooks

* Team news:
Patriots at 27/31: Have lost 20 sacks in free agency between Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. Davis thinks they need to fortify their defense and need to use the picks on players vs. their m.o. of trading down. Not especially brilliant here, Baldinger says they will either use the picks, trade down or trade up. Well, thanks for that. I think his suggestion was really that they acquire pass rush help if the value is there.

Bengals at 17/21: Glaring need at cornerback, but Davis argues for putting offensive help around Andy Dalton, a runner, a receiver, offensive line help. Baldinger thinks they've built around Dalton already and are close to best-player-available mode. Can see them taking a corner and a receiver.

Bears at 19: Trading for Brandon Marshall gives the Bears the opening to take BPA, but they could still take a receiver. Other needs at DE, CB, offensive line. Beat writer looking at players like Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry (who isn't?), Stephon Gilmore, Michael Floyd.



Detroit at 23: Big problem is the secondary. Gave up about a mile of passing yards their final two games to Flynn and Brees, and lost Eric Wright in free agency. Correspondent intriguingly calls Janoris Jenkins perfect for them. Can play bump and zone and would fit perfectly in their scheme.

Packers at 28: beat writer thinks they need to address pass rush. Even after they signed Anthony Hargrove? Sees Mercilus as someone who will be an effective pass rusher for a long time in the NFL. Also offers Shea McClellin and Chandler Jones as possible candidates.



Big Dead at 13: Are the Cardinals basing their plan for success in 2012 on a team handing them two games on punt returns again? Just wondering. Offensive line remains the major need area. Arizona hasn't drafted an offensive lineman anywhere in two years. Beat writer Kent Somers thinks they'd be very happy with David DeCastro. Though their specific need is a tackle, they'd bump new acquisition Adam Snyder outside. Floyd's also a possibility. They'll address pass rush later in the draft, but Somers sounds pretty high on Courtney Upshaw.

* Player news:
Panelists were asked to name the best pass rusher in this year's draft. Baldinger doesn't see anyone like Von Miller or Jason Pierre-Paul. Baldinger says Melvin Ingram doesn't really know how to rush the QB because he's never forced a fumble, but picks him. Continuing to be impressed by his unimpressive Combine, Davis picks Quinton Coples. Called him “dominant” there and at the Senior Bowl. I wasn't impressed with him at either venue. Former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist wasn't impressed with his Combine; said so on the last show.

Next question, will there be a RB picked in the first round besides Trent Richardson. Baldinger is so unimpressed with this year's RB class he says the next best RB isn't even one of Mike Mayock's top 5, picking Bernard Pierce of Temple, even though he's injured. The other backs aren't the right style of runner; they don't set up their blocks well or run well between the tackles. There are no “home run hitters” in the NFL. Huh, what was Chris Johnson in 2010? Davis calls David Wilson the second-best RB but does not project him as a first-rounder.

Mayock's updated top five OLBs:
Melvin Ingram, Shea McClellin, Whitney Mercilus, Andre Branch, Ronnell Lewis.
Represents a big jump up for McClellin. Boise State used him everywhere in the front seven and even as a nickel defender. 6'6” 250, 3-4 OLB similar to Mike Vrable. Meaning, he's Caucasian. Can rush the QB. Not elite quick-twitch athlete (meaning, he's Caucasian), but gets off the ball very well, uses his hands very well and uses his height well to gain an edge on the tackle. Great nose for the football, great instincts, good at forcing turnovers. Three years of college production vs. Whitney Mercilus' one. Great pick for a 3-4 team at the end of the first round.

Updated top five DTs:
Fletcher Cox, Jerel Worthy, Michael Brockers, Dontari Poe, Devon Still, Kendall Reyes.
Wow, this top five or six changed up quite a bit. Downgraded former #1 Poe for his average tape despite his freakish athletic skills. Will take time and nurturing to become a major contributor, so if he's drafted early, he's not going to meet expectations, so Mayock downgrades him to the part of the first round where teams can wait for a drafted player to develop. Cox is still very young, a two-year starter and his production and upside match up. I wanted to hear more about Worthy, but we're on to the next position instead.

At wide receiver, Mayock's keeping Justin Blackmon ahead of Floyd, but calls Floyd a beast. Physical, tough, great hands, great blocking WR, close to Blackmon on tape. Top-15 pick. The “great hands” remark is interesting because the show questioned his hands last week.

Some teams reportedly have Stephen Hill as a 2nd-to-3rd round pick because he is so raw as a receiver. Others see a first-round prospect because of his athleticism and ability to get in and out of breaks. They see him as a deadly weapon matched up one-on-one and making back-shoulder catches.

Brandon Weeden lost a head-to-head comparison to Ryan Tannehill decisively last week, so today he gets to take on Brock Osweiler. Weeden kills him statistically in college. Baldinger opens the debate by saying neither one of them are going to be good pros. You can't build around Weeden; he'll turn 30 in the middle of next season. Osweiler never even should have come out for the draft. Arizona State lost its last five games to teams that can't play defense. Doesn't think Osweiler has any leadership ability. Then says Weeden won't be any better than T.J. Yates. Davis thinks Weeden shows some leadership and big-game mentality. Osweiler left school because of a coaching change. Thinks Weeden would grade similarly to Tannehill if not for his age. Win goes to Weeden here.

New head-to-head: Kendall Wright vs. Stephen Hill. I like this kind of analysis; just wish the show hadn't spent a month focusing only on Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III, well after that issue had already been decided. Baldinger likes them both. Wright caught 108 passes this year. Ran right by defenses. Knows how to get open, make plays in traffic, get separation. Hill can burn but Baldinger questions how well he'll make catches in traffic. Worth a high pick for his measurables and upside. Could develop into a special receiver given his big frame. Wright did everything – slot, outside, long catches, short catches, and plays faster than his timed speed. Seems like Wright won this one.

Mayock's updated top 5 TEs: Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Orson Charles, Ladarius Green, James Hanna
Fleener should fit right into the pro passing game because he lived in the seam in college. Given his size and production, Baldinger sees the 49ers and Giants as teams that would be interested in him at the end of the first round. Yeah, too bad the 49ers don't have any good tight ends already. Davis thinks the Texans will be interested. He's a legitimate first-rounder, not just because teams need TEs and this year's class is so weak.

My worthless laptop ate the “Super Regional Combine” notes I had from the previous show, so Bucky Brooks will try to oblige me with some more deep sleeper prospects:

Chris Hart, QB, Webber International - 6'2.5”, 215, big arm, made all the throws in the pro repertoire with zip and velocity. (Webber is a NAIA school in south-central Florida.)

Taveon Rogers, WR, New Mexico State – punt return man ran a reported 4.30. Showed explosiveness and acceleration and should have upgraded himself into a late-round pick, possibly the 6th.

Ryan Broyles of Oklahoma is the NCAA's all-time receptions leader. A WR1 for the Sooners though he has an NFL slot receiver's body. Knee injury late last season, his first workout was April 12. If that went/goes well, Davis thinks he'd be a steal in the 4th round. He's a third-round talent and can also return kicks. Should be very productive in the NFL. Intelligent comparison by Burmeister to Brandon Tate, who was faster.

-$-

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