Saturday, April 21, 2012

Path to the Draft, 4/17


Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, Charlie Casserly

* Team news:
Whoa, we open with the Rams at #6. So why the hell are they asking Brian Burwell anything? He establishes the pecking order as Justin Blackmon, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and... Fletcher Cox. The Fletcher Cox train is really gaining steam in St. Louis, and I have to admit, I'm getting a little afraid of it. Barely a week before the draft, I have yet to hear anyone call Fletcher Cox a better player than any of the “Big Six,” yet, here he is. Wasn't Burwell at the front of the line for taking best player available a couple of years ago? I can maybe see passing on Claiborne for Cox, but that's about it.

Jagwires at #7: Beat writer says Jagwires are now looking to trade down, thinks Seattle could want to jump over Miami for Ryan Tannehill. More and more, their draft strategy appears to be hoping a wide receiver will fall to them. Not sure I'd want to plan my draft around that.

Dolphins at #8: Tannehill is a major possibility, but the beat writer reminds us that he was barely a first-round prospect when the draft prospect began, and Miami has plenty of other needs, including pass rushers and receivers. Melvin Ingram and Michael Floyd are top possibilities there, and the beat writer doesn't rule out drafting either over Tannehill.

I start to wonder if the teams aren't just planting these beat writer reports sometimes. Is Burwell trying to convince the Eagles to trade up for Cox? Is the Dolphins beat writer trying to convince teams they don't need to trade up for Tannehill, so they can get him at #8? What a fun, and paranoid, time of year this is.

Texans at #26: 8 of Houston's last 9 first-round picks have been on defense. 2003 was the last time they took a skill player! (Andre Johnson) Though everyone else appears to be saying receiver for the Texans, beat writer John McClain agrees with RamView that their biggest need is an offensive lineman. They averaged 27 points a game last year while Johnson was injured! But even though any receiver they pick would be the #4 guy and have to work his way up, McClain thinks that'll be the pick, Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill. But he says they'd better get some depth on the right side of their line. Davis and Casserly, the ex-Texans GM, agree the pick should be a WR. Reuben Randle could be in their mix as well. Lombardi thinks they'd better pick offensive line, though they have a good position coach who could coach up a later pick.

* Player news:
Defensive tackle talk today:
Fletcher Cox – most complete tackle in the draft. His tape matches his talent and he's a bona fide pass rusher. Solid, consistent player, good size and can get bigger. Casserly calls him the safest pick.

Lombardi says Dontari Poe has the most overall ability and wonders if teams that pass on him won't regret it like the Eagles do from a couple of years ago, passing over Jason Pierre-Paul to take Brandon Graham. Doesn't make a lot of tackles but plays the man in front of him well. Lombardi also compares Poe to Albert Haynesworth, minus the head-stomping and moving violations, I suspect. Big, fast and has unlimited upside once he gets pro coaching. May need a year to really develop. Quick and explosive, holds up against double-teams, can shed and get off blocks. Good counter moves, quickness, explosion and finishing ability as a pass rusher. Loses track of the football sometimes. Casserly sees no issue with his effort and says he'll be the best pro among this year's DT prospects.

Michael Brockers – holds his ground in the middle very well, but hasn't yet shown to be the kind of inside pass rusher teams depend on. Coming out as a redshirt sophomore, a team would be taking him making the gamble they can develop him into a pass rusher. He has all the physical tools.

Jerel Worthy – really gets your attention with his quickness off the ball, but he's inconsistent as a pass-rusher and doesn't show a secondary move after that great burst. Has all the physical tools, but if he doesn't win with quickness, he doesn't win.

Kendall Reyes – Flashed and was a consistently strong performer Senior Bowl week. Outstanding, violent hands. Some question his play-to-play consistency, but that was not an issue for him throughout the Senior Bowl process.

Brandon Thompson – big, strong, physical nose tackle. Has some explosion and quickness and can hold the point attack. Not a pass rusher at all, though.

Derek Wolfe – Casserly and Lombardi (and Mel Kiper) can see the Cincinnati DT sneaking into the first round. Can play 3-technique, 5-technique or nose, consistently plays hard. Can rush the passer and makes plays all over the place. Under the radar though he's Big East Defensive Player of the Year.

Nick Perry – Casserly doesn't believe there's a clear best pass rusher in the draft this year. Perry is quick-twitch, has a good second gear, plays with good leverage and has a good counter move. Casserly likes how well he uses his hands the most. Doesn't appear to like him much against the run.

Vinny Curry does not have prototype size or speed, but he did have 40 tackles-for-loss in Conference USA the last two seasons. Uses his hands well, has good strength and a good bull rush. Good edge quickness, range and pursuit. Plays faster than his timed speed and looks like a natural pass rusher. Solid second-round grade.

Shea McClellin – fast from the outside, has quick moves as an inside rusher, also a good blitzer. 6'3”, 260 with 4.6 speed. Has had three concussions, which hasn't come up about him before on this show.

Bruce Irvin – most explosive DE in the draft off the ball. 245 lbs with 4.4 speed. May not have a position in the pros, too small to hold up at DE, may not have the instincts to be a linebacker.

The show also gives us repetitive analysis of Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden from former scout Greg Gabriel. Beware QBs from simple spread offenses! And Gabriel becomes the latest analyst I've heard say that Matt Kalil isn't as good coming out of USC as Tyron Smith. Clearly I don't know something here... wasn't Smith stuck at right tackle there because he couldn't beat out Kalil for left tackle? Gabriel is big on Whitney Mercilus, though. Rejects the one-year wonder argument, saying that's just how college players develop. Only a junior, he hadn't gotten a lot of time on the field until now. Might have been a top-5 pick in the 2013 draft if he stayed in school AND continued to develop, so the team that drafts him could be catching him still on his way up.

Now that Brian Billick's chances of coaching in the NFL seem dormant at best, I see he's taken the opportunity to grow a Most Interesting Man in the World beard. Yeah, that doesn't look silly. I don't always draft quarterbacks. But when I do, I prefer Robert Griffin. He has Steve Young potential.

Illini o-lineman Jeff Allen is mentioned on this show for the first time, and as a player whose stock is rising. Can play either guard or either tackle position. Could start as a swing lineman for a team and eventually develop up to a left tackle. Scouts believe he can play there eventually.

-$-

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