Path to the Draft, 3/15

Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Charles Davis, Michael Lombardi, Brian Baldinger, Matt Hayes (Sporting News)

* Team news:

Buffalo at 10: Dropping $50 million guaranteed on Mario Williams frees the Bills up to go after offensive line here. Riley Reiff appears to be their likeliest pick now. The main question about him is whether he'll be limited to right tackle.

Hayes says Buffalo should try to trade up now for Ryan Tannehill. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws too many interceptions, Tannehill would start there right away. Wow, didn't Buffalo  just spend megadollars extending Fitzpatrick?

Vikings at 3: Could be bluster, but just want to note that the Vikings seem more willing to trade down than I ever thought they'd be. They can't be expecting Matt Kalil to last past #6, can they?

Colts at 34: Nose tackle is on Indy's list after Andrew Luck because they're converting to a 3-4. They're also looking to draft wide receivers, and cornerbacks, where they had a ton of injuries last year.

Texans at 26: The loss of Mario Williams in free agency takes their first-round focus off of WRs and onto pass rushers like Nick Perry or Whitney Mercilus. The depth of this year's WR class should leave them a good player there later.

Jagwires at 7: If the Rams pass on Justin Blackmon, the Jags won't. They need pass rush help, too, but aren't sure if Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples are worth the #7 pick. They also need to strengthen their offensive line if they're seriously committed to running the ball. Reiff or a defensive player will be much likelier here than a reach for Michael Floyd.

* Player news:
More on Tannehill: Hayes has no concern about Tannehill having only 19 college starts, even though Mark Sanchez is on the verge of bombing with the Jets with about that many. Mike Sherman, according to Hayes, says Tannehill knows the game, has a high football IQ, and will be a ten-year player wherever he goes. Davis said Tannehill is a better athlete than Andy Dalton.

In his mock draft, Hayes called Trent Richardson the most NFL-ready player in the draft, projecting him to Cleveland at #4.

Justin Blackmon projected to the Rams at #6. Hayes called him a less dynamic but more durable version of Dez Bryant. Davis called Hakeem Nicks a fairer comparison; Blackmon should be a lot more dependable than Bryant.

Hayes slotted Dontari Poe to the Seahawks at #12, but isn't a fan. Only 30 tackles, 8 tackles for loss and one sack his senior year should be major red flags. Playing for one of the worst teams in the country, in one of the worst conferences, he should have dominated, if he was trying hard enough. He didn't make the most of the physical skills he showed off at the Combine. Davis wasn't sure where Seattle would play Poe if they did take him (probably right over center). Baldinger repeats criticism that Poe ends up on the ground too often. He also doesn't find the ball well, or make a lot happen on the field, even against teams like Arkansas-Pine Bluff that should be ripe for the picking. Also doesn't see Poe's athletic explosiveness on the field.

Lombardi counterargues that if you trust Poe's talent, toughness, commitment and his ability to learn a system, you take him. Brandon Graham got drafted ahead of Jason Pierre-Paul because he played better on tape. How's that pick working out? Lombardi mentioned several other defensive linemen, like Eric Swann, whose tape was no indicator at all that he'd play as well as he did on the field.

Personally, I loved Lombardi's argument because I'm sensing there's a lot of "tape snobs" out there this year. Regular folks like us have so much access to so much about players now, the "insiders" are all suddenly pounding on the supreme importance of game tape vs. it being one of several valuable evaluation tools.

However, I'd countercounterargue to Lombardi that if Poe's really a slacker on the field, I don't know why I'd expect him to work any harder with the playbook.

Still, Mike Mayock's #1 defensive tackle? Poe, followed by Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers, Jerel Worthy and Kendall Reyes.

Getting away from the Poe show, consensus on Melvin Ingram continues to be that he's a player teams will be able to move all over the place defensively. In fact, you'll have to, or he'll get worn down going against a tackle all the time. Lombardi believes his best position will be as a stand-up pass rusher out of an inside position in the 3-4. Let him use his size and speed against guards.

Davis closed with negative reports on LaMichael James. Added 15 lbs. in college to get to 195, but is just a straight-line runner who doesn't pack enough punch inside. Scouts say Jacquizz Rogers was a better prospect coming out, and he had little impact for the Falcons in 2011.

Looks like I might want to re-think where to go in the third round of my mock draft.

-$-