Saturday, April 21, 2012

Path to the Draft, 4/19


Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Charles Davis, Michael Lombardi, Charlie Casserly, Mike Mayock

* Team news:
Colts at #1: It's Andrew Luck! Shocking! Casserly believes Luck will be paid about the same $22 million deal Cam Newton got. Lombardi mentions Stanford's one of the schools with that stupid rule that won't let Luck join the Colts until his college class has graduated. I swear, I am so sick of that rule – from now on, if all other things are equal enough, I would just pass on a Stanford or Ohio State player. (Although that rule would have stuck me with Rey Maualuga over James Laurinaitis three years ago.) Mayock gives a completely unnecessary scouting report on Luck.

Colts at #34, not #33: One week before the draft, and the NFL Network's main show dedicated to all things draft still thinks the Colts are picking first in the second round. No, it is the Rams. Somebody tweet this to these dummies or something. Wide receiver, tight end, and interior lineman are all offensive needs for the Colts. They'll still be in range to pick up a fine player, possibly among Stephen Hill, Coby Fleener, Kevin Zeitler or Amini Silatolu. But Chuck Pagano wants to get bigger and tougher on defense, too. Just a pick later than this show thinks.


Bills at #10: Lombardi's sources tell him the Bills are now thinking more along the lines of wide receiver or defense at #10 instead of offensive line.

Cowboys at #14: After weeks of assuming Mark Barron will be taken here, things have gotten much less simple at #14. Their correspondent lists three defensive tackles first, then Barron. They're pretty sure Fletcher Cox will be gone, and apparently, they're not sold on Dontari Poe. Interesting. So they're thinking Barron or Michael Brockers. In fact, the correspondent thinks Brockers will be the pick, though Barron would be an immediate impact starter for them. They need size in the middle of the line.

Eagles at #15: How about the Eagles drafting a cornerback after spending all that jack on corners last offseason? After their correspondent raises the dumb idea of Fletcher Cox falling, he speculates that Dre Kirkpatrick could be a dark-horse pick.

Jets at #16: Jets are staying on outside pass rushers like Courtney Upshaw or Quinton Coples, but will have an interesting decision if Michael Floyd is available.

Packers at #28: Dead last in the league in total defense last year. Might have trouble getting the OLB they want, though; chances are pretty good there will be a run at the position in front of them. They would jump for Shea McClellin if they could get him. Failing that, they could take Harrison Smith because of Nick Collins' medical problems or beef up the interior o-line with Zeitler, Silatolu or Peter Konz. Their running back situation isn't great, either.


* Player news:
Interesting draft statistics from Mayock: In the last 8 drafts, 23 quarterbacks were selected in the first round, producing 15 starters. In the other rounds combined, 83 QBs were taken, with only seven becoming starters. That's less than a 10% success rate. Of the seven, two were second-rounders (Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton), two were third-rounders (Matt Schaub, Colt McCoy) and THREE from round 7 (Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick). Mayock thinks the Browns will pass on Ryan Tannehill, who will go 7th (Jagwires trade down) or 8th, and take a hard look at Brandon Weeden at #22 or in the second round at #37.

Head-to-head: Dwayne Allen vs. Orson Charles
Lombardi says Allen will be the better pro because he's the better blocker, but pretty much all the tight ends in this draft need to improve their blocking skills. Plays with great balance and catches the ball well but lacks speed and separation ability. Still compares well to TEs like Brandon Pettigrew. Charles can be a nasty blocker, has a strong competitive streak. His size might suit him better to fullback or H-back. Catches well and plays with good effort. Davis likes Orson Charles better because of that effort. Plays to the whistle and wins a lot of battles. No one mentions Charles' DUI right after the Combine six weeks ago. Narrow win for Allen.

Mike Adams tested positive for marijuana at the NFL Combine. He was also suspended for five games last year in the Ohio State tattoo parlor scandal that felled Jim Tressel. Casserly says failing the drug test has to knock his draft stock down. He'd drop him off his board. Failing a drug test when you know it's coming means you either have a problem you can't control, you're stupid, or you don't care, and none of those are good. Mayock adds that's already strike one for Adams under the NFL drug policy. The next time he fails a test, it's a four-week suspension, then a full season. The Redskins drafted Trent Williams under similar conditions, and now he's a strike from a full-season suspension.

Time for The Most Interesting Ex-Coach in the World (Policemen give him free donuts). He doesn't always draft quarterbacks who are really tall, but when he does, he would draft Brock Osweiler the second day. He's a better athlete than he looks for being as tall as he is. Not as good as The Most Interesting Ex-Coach in the World, though (He can throw a knuckleball with his foot). Stay draft-y, my friends.

Tim Ruskell pops back on to project where on the field all of these hybrid DE/OLBs will play.
Melvin Ingram – has the instincts and plays well enough in space to ultimately play 3-4 OLB, and he adds a pass rush element from there. Isn't sure that he's a top ten player but his athleticism and productivity in college merit drafting him high.

Courtney Upshaw – should be a 4-3 DE. Ruskell calls him a cross between Hugh Douglas and Dwight Freeney. Can play either side. Size may not be ideal, but his explosiveness should put him in demand. Suspects he doesn't have the instincts, movement in space or coverage ability to do well as a 3-4 OLB. Doesn't really suit his skillset. Middle-first round pick.

Whitney Mercilus – should be perfect fit as a 4-3 DE. Perfect pass rusher, long with excellent change of direction. Better off as a RDE. Physical strength is going to be an issue. He also hasn't really been exposed to any of the things he'd have to do as a 3-4 OLB. Mid-late first round.

Shea McClellin – better fit as a 3-4 OLB. Makes plays all over the field, can rush the passer, is stout at the point of attack. Has the instincts, coverage skills and movement in space to be successful. Mayock Zone pick.

Chris Polk's draft stock has been pretty flat despite excellent college numbers. Very early on he was graded as a top-five RB but has fallen ever since the draft process started. Lacks breakaway speed and had a ton of carries in college; teams are worried there are already too many miles on him.

If the Bills pass on Riley Reiff (see team news), he could go for a pretty long slide. A team like Arizona's not going to want to draft him in the top 15 if they're not convinced he can play left tackle.

Only one more of these suckers to go!

-$-

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