Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Mock draft results

Though Accu-Draft 3.0 had the Rams' first round pick WRONG, it still was the best of my three mocks, with six direct hits: Jake Long (duh), Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston, Jonathan Stewart at 13 and Felix Jones at 22 (also a duh). It had 25 of 31 first-rounders correct, five of the misses being wide receivers, the biggest miss being Devin Thomas at 11. 2.0 and 1.0, the one that had Chris Long going to the Rams, had 4 direct hits.

I don't think that's a terrible result. For me, it actually rivals my better mock drafts from the past. It's at least as good as Sports Illustrated's, which didn't even get #1 overall right, and that was a mulligan! Dr. Z has a lot of nerve grading the team's drafts (I believe he gave the Rams a "C") when he can't even get the pick THEY GIVE YOU IN ADVANCE right!

Saturday, April 26, 2008

2008 NFL Draft, second round thoughts

I quickly learned that it's going to be impossible for me to blog the draft live and also get the Rams' player pages up. There will be a very limited amount of live blogging tomorrow, but since I have some
time here, I'll pontificate on the 2nd round.

32. Dolphins, Philip Merling. Could be a good value, was widely considered a top 20 pick.
33. Rams, Donnie Avery. I was initially shocked they took Avery as the top WR on the board, but I see a lot of positives in his game as well. If the Patriots can take Mayo at #10, the Rams can take Avery at #33.
34. Redskins trade up with Atlanta for Devin Thomas. Looks like a great pick for the Skins; kind of surprised the Falcons passed him up. The Rams, too, for that matter.
35. Chiefs, Brandon Flowers. Their solid draft continues. Pretty much replaces Ty Law.
36. Packers, Jordy Nelson. Obviously, the teams have their own favorites at WR, and they jibe nothing close to what the draft gurus think.
37. Falcons, Curtis Lofton. That's a very good LB corps in Atlanta.
38. Seahawks, John Carlson. OK?
39. Whiners, Chilo Rachal. What happened to them taking a LB? They pass on Groves and Connor?
40. Saints, Tracy Porter. Please replace Jason David.
41. Bills, James Hardy. Buffalo's my #2 draft right now after KC. Nice job filling needs and getting value.
42. Broncos, Eddie Royal. See? Some teams want speed, some want size. This is speed, of course.
43. Vikings, I think trading up, Tyrell Johnson. He + Jared Allen = superb draft day.
44. Bears, Matt Forte?????? Early candidate for WORST DRAFT. WTF are they doing? QB, WR, anyone?
45. Lions, Jordan Dizon. I don't think the Lions are getting terrific value with their picks, either. Big surprise.
46. Bengals, Jerome Simpson. Go ahead and hold out, Ocho Cinco! Actually, Chad's really screwing them up; they should be addressing defensive needs this high instead of guarding against his petulance.
47. Eggles, Trevor Laws. They may have been screwed by all the OTs that went off the board in the 1st.
48. Redskins, Fred Davis. Don't they have Chris Cooley?
49. Eggles, DeSean Jackson. Super pick for a team that was incompetent at punt returns last year.
50. Big Dead, Calais Campbell. OMG, you can have him! Lotsa luck. The Redskins employ his college line coach and passed on him twice, once to take a TE, when they have Chris Cooley! What does that tell you?
51. Redskins, Malcolm Kelly. Right now this is the steal of the draft. Till Brian Brohm goes.
52. Jagwires, Quentin Groves. Another steal. The Jags have passed Buffalo for 2nd-best draft so far.
53. Steelers, Limas Sweed. Yet another steal. They could easily have taken him with their first round pick!
54. Titans, Jason Jones. About time they took a DE. And they can probably get a decent WR in the 3rd. I still don't understand the Chris Johnson pick at all, though.
55. Ravens, Ray Rice. Good potential 3rd-down back for a team that needs to gain speed.
56. Packers, Brian Brohm. Yep, steal of the draft.
57. Dolphins, Chad Henne. Guess they're not sold on Beck, then.
58. Bucs, Dexter Jackson. Another WR going a round earlier than projected. Or are they trying to draft their former Super Bowl MVP?
59. Colts, Mike Pollak. The Colts took him; he must be good. One assumes he'll play guard; center is hardly a need there.
60. Packers, Patrick Lee. I like him; he was a 4th or 5th rounder in some drafts.
61. Cowboys, Martellus Bennett. Had no idea Dallas needed a TE.
62. Patriots, Terrance Wheatley. OK, what the fuck is New England doing? This guy was considered a 2nd-rounder nowhere I saw. He was a SIXTH rounder in some draft reviews!
63. Giants, Terrell Thomas. Darn, he would have been a nice pick for the Rams tomorrow.

Right now I'm hoping that pick is Dan Connor, who my gut says is the best player on the board
when the third round begins tomorrow. But does he get by Miami, who need to replace Zach Thomas?

Top drafts so far: 1 - KC, 2-Jax, 3-Minn, 4-Buff, 5-Giants, and they're drafting last.
Worst: 3 - Detroit, 2 - Chicago, 1 - yes, 1 - New England. What the fuck are they doing. Anybody who says they had a good day, and weren't reaching like Plasticman, needs to remove his lips from Belichick's and Pioli's asses. Patriots fans excepted, of course. But color me unimpressed.

2008 NFL Draft, first round

1. Miami, Jake Long.
2. Rams, Chris Long. Chris Long's page is up on the RamView draft page now.
3. Falcons, Matt Ryan. VERY surprised they passed on Dorsey.
4. Raiders, Darren McFadden. Quadruple RB reverses every play! Wheee!
5. Chiefs, Glenn Dorsey. The Chiefs have all those picks, and they start with Glenn Dorsey?
Wow! Early candidate for best draft in the league.
6. Jets, Vernon Gholston.
7. Saints, trading up with New England: Sedrick Ellis.

Man this thing is moving fast. I'd almost welcome the 15-minute rounds back. I don't even want to think about the 7-minute second round.

Also, NFL Network: PLEASE FIX MARSHALL'S AND MOOCH'S MICROPHONES.

8. Jacksonville, trading up with Baltimore: Derrick Harvey. Savvy move by the Jagwires.
9. Cincinnati, Keith Rivers. Not bad for the Bengals, they didn't give anything up and still got a player they wanted.
10. New England took Jerod Mayo at #10??????? That is a shock. He's PFW's #10-rated outside linebacker! I thought he'd be a likelier pick around the pick the Pats forfeited. Any other front office, you'd scream this was a reach, wouldn't you?
11. Bills, Leodis McKelvin.

The last two picks seem to guarantee the Rams are going to have a shot at one of the top WRs at #33. Dan Connor's a popular projection there; no way he gets past the Whiners. Buffalo going CB shuffles all the WRs down, and quite a bit.

12. Broncos, Ryan Clady.
13. Panthers, Jonathan Stewart. Hey, my mock draft got one! Actually, 1.0 might be doing better than 2.0 or 3.0. I'll have to check.
14. Bears, Chris Williams. Hate the pick. As PFW says, he plays too nice. I don't see him as a big help for the Bears' run game. Who knows, maybe they'll drop Grossman back 50 times a game now.
15. Chiefs trading up with Detroit, Branden Albert. Yep, the Chiefs are having an amazing draft. On the other hand, the fucking idiot Lions, who NEED a RB, just gave Rashard Mendenhall to the Big Dead. Matt Millen is such a fucking dumb shit.
16. Big Dead, DRC. A little surprising they passed on Mendenhall, but they still got a good player.
17. Lions, Gosder Cherilus. WHAAA? Good thing for Millen I like Cherilus, because this is a minor reach. But he's still a dumb shit for passing on Mendenhall.
18. Ravens, trading up with Houston: Joe Flacco. Guess they worried they wouldn't make it to where they traded down to at 26.
19. Carolina, trading up with Philly: Jeff Otah. Good value here & a need pick.

Then again, they gave up their first-rounder next year. Why doesn't anyone ever offer the Rams one of these draft-day steals?

20. Tampa, Aqib Talib. Not a good idea. It's pretty easy to score weed in South Florida, isn't it? Mike Jenkins must be thrilled the local pro team passed on him, eh?
21. Falcons trade up with Washington to take Sam Baker. Wow. Never saw him going this high, though I am really high on his prospects. OTs are definitely at a premium this year. The Rams may have to think about Anthony Collins at 33, IF he lasts that long.

Dallas gets their choice of Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Devin Thomas... Wow.

22. Jerry takes a by-Gawd Razorback, Felix Jones. Guess they already had the jerseys ready. Looks like Mendenhall is the unfortunate recipient of this year's inexplicable faller distinction.

Quick love for NFL Network: Mike Mayock is really nailing everything today - he had Mayo going to New England, Otah going to Carolina on their trade-up. I don't know how ESPN's going today, nor do I intend to, but Mayock has become The Draft Day Guru today in my eyes.

23. Pittsburgh takes Rashard Mendenhall? Reminds me of the Saints taking Deuce McAllister when they had Rickey Williams. The Steelers don't screw up draft picks, though I'd have picked a WR here.
24. The Titans, who are crying for WRs when none have been picked, and are crying for DEs with Philip Merling on the board, draft Chris Johnson? PFW's #82 player overall??? Maybe they're convinced he's the next Devin Hester. Bizarre pick.
25. Cowboys trade back up, and it's not for a WR, it's for Mike Jenkins? What is up with the WRs today?
26. Houston takes Duane Brown? At least they traded down. Anybody who claims their mock draft is holding up well after about pick #9 is lying, by the way.

The Rams need a third tackle, but this almost-crazy run on tackles in the first round means they're going to get better values at almost every other position, especially at WR. Maybe they can get a deep-sleeper in rounds 5-7.

27. San Diego, Antoine Cason.
28. Seattle, Lawrence Jackson. I like the Cason pick for San Diego, but I'm stunned at ALL the teams that are passing on WRs. Seattle couldn't use Devin Thomas?
29. Whiners, Kentwan Balmer. And now I'm shocked the Whiners passed on all the WRs, and Quentin Groves and Dan Connor. WOW.
30. The Jets trade up with Green Bay for - Dustin Keller? Seems a good value here, though.
31. Giants take Kenny Phillips as many expected.

I don't think anybody expected the round to complete without a WR being selected. Pick a plum, Rams!



Rams to take Chris Long?

Word is emerging from various sources that the Rams, who have appeared poised to take Glenn Dorsey at #2 overall, are actually going to draft Chris Long.

That flushing sound you just heard? My mock draft.

There's some concern that the Rams have flip-flopped, but Jim Thomas' original scoop was that they had Jake Long and Chris Long atop the board. It's going to be hard to accuse the Rams of indecisiveness when it may just have been the usual draft misinformation going on.

A bigger surprise is that the Rams are actually taking the player I want them to take.

The Ravens have joined the Saints and Falcons as teams rumored trying to move up to #2, and one of their officials has claimed it would cost them "their entire draft". Yeah, I'd give up #2 for somebody's entire draft.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Draft coverage disappointments

I mentioned in an earlier post my disappointment with Scout.com's printed draft guide. Instead of the comprehensive reporting we'd been getting, including full rankings of dozens of prospects at every position, scout.com cut it way back this year and only reported on its top 15 at all positions. This guide'll be disposable by the end of the third round.

But at least they bothered to rank anybody. I've been looking for two weeks for the in-depth draft coverage The Sporting News has provided in the past, and I can stop looking. It's not there. Last week, they just did a piece on a handful of the top prospects at each position. This week, all they did was run a bunch of mock drafts. Hell, any dumbass can do a mock draft. (Proof) (More proof)

Meanwhile, Sporting News provides no list of prospects, no rankings, no War Room draft board. Pretty freaking useless.

RamView's draft coverage for '08 is down to the always fine PFW guide and draft issue, the stripped-down Scout.com guide, and probably the profiles at NFL.com and Rick Gosselin's top 100 players, due out on Friday.

It's pretty criminal that one of the supposedly best sports magazine short-changes its readers on NFL draft coverage this badly.

LSU jinx?

Bernie Miklasz's column this morning endorses the Rams' likely decision to draft Glenn Dorsey Saturday. One of his reasons is that LSU has been so good at producing pro players the last 10 years. He makes a good point when he mentions players like Joseph Addai and LaRon Landry. He makes less of a good point when he mentions Josh Reed. Yeah, Reed was such a great pick, the Bills are the #30 passing offense in the league despite having Pro Bowl quality WR Lee Evans on one flank, and Buffalo's 2-to-1 to be the first team to draft a WR this year, usually projected as a long reach from their spot at #11.

Bernie goes on to mention the Rams had bad luck with Claude Wroten, like Dorsey, a LSU defensive tackle, but, much like their bad luck drafting DTs shouldn't affect this year's pick, neither should their bad luck with their one pick from LSU in ten years. Well, let's not be so sure.

Too bad Bernie arbitrarily stopped at ten years in his analysis. If he'd gone back 12 years, he would have included the Rams' legendary 1996 draft, where, in the first round, they passed on future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison to take Eddie Kennison, one of the few bad WRs to be found in one of the best WR classes ever. Eddie Kennison, from... LSU.

Do the Rams have an LSU jinx the way they have a Miami Hurricane jinx? Looks like we're all going to find out the hard way.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Mock draft 3.0

I'm switching a few things up from the mock draft that's up at the website. Two main catalysts for the changes: Minnesota gave their first-rounder to KC in the Jared Allen trade, and intelligence that Al Davis and Howie Long do not remotely get along.

This'll probably never make it up to the site because it's a LOT of work.

(Mock draft 3.1: Whoops! Let's try this again and not leave Sedrick Ellis completely out of the draft this time. Now THERE would be some draft news.)

Mock draft 4/23
1. Miami, Jake Long, T, Michigan.
2. RAMS, Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU.
3. Atlanta, Matt Ryan, QB, BC.
4. Oakland, Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas.
5. Kansas City, Chris Long, DE, Virginia. Perfect young substitute for Allen.
6. NY Jets, Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State. Will not pass on elite edge rusher with McFadden gone.
7. New England, Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. Back to DB.
8. Baltimore, Ryan Clady, T, Boise State.
9. Cincinnati, Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC.
10. New Orleans, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State. Coin-flip for top DB.
11. Buffalo, Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State.
12. Denver, Chris Williams, T, Vanderbilt.
13. Carolina, Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon.
14. Chicago, Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois.
15. Detroit, Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida.
16. Big Dead, Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida. Jenkins gets a boost; best DB or RB on the board.
17. Kansas City (from Minnesota), Jeff Otah, T, Pitt. Chiefs get their o-lineman, too.
18. Houston - Keith Rivers, LB, USC.
19. Philadelphia - Branden Albert, OL, Virginia.
20. Tampa Bay - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas.
21. Washington - James Hardy, WR, Indiana.
22. Dallas (from Cleveland) - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas.
23. Pittsburgh - Gosder Cherilus, T, BC.
24. Tennessee - Philip Merling, DE, Clemson.
25. Seattle - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami.
26. Jacksonville - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina.
27. San Diego - Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma.
28. Dallas - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma.
29. Whiners - DeSean Jackson, WR, California.
30. GB - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas.
31. NYG - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee.

Second Round
32. Miami - Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn.
33. RAMS - ANTOINE CASON, CB, Arizona. I would make Lawrence Jackson the pick here. Sam Baker would also be great. But I'll have to determine if either has visited Rams Park. All of Linehan's 1st and 2nd-rounders to date had visits here prior to being drafted. If a guy didn't come here, he's not high on the Rams' board. I know Cason's been here; I know the Rams don't trust Unca Fakhir to keep his nose clean; I know they're disappointed in Jonathan Wade's early returns, and Ron Bartell is in his walk year. They brought in a lot of WRs and I think they're expecting to take a WR here, but this mock paints a scenario that doesn't mesh with that.
34. Atlanta (from Oakland) - Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida. I can't take Bubba for the Rams because I can't understand why they went and signed his brother.
35. Kansas City - Sam Baker, T, USC. (Could move inside to guard.)
36. NYJ - Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas. Need explosive offensive players and running game is wretched.
37. Atlanta - Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue.
38. Baltimore - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville.
39. Whiners - Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue.
40. New Orleans - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State.
41. Buffalo - Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M.
42. Denver - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame.
43. Carolina - Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC.
44. Chicago - Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware.
45. Detroit - Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina.
46. Cincinnati - DaJuan Morgan, FS, North Carolina State.
47. Minnesota - Early Doucet, WR, LSU.
48. Atlanta (from Houston) - Anthony Collins, T, Kansas.
49. Philadelphia - Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt. Big boost for a WR they're known to like.
50. Big Dead - Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan. Stock has been climbing (my way of saying I've been mistakenly overlooking a player to date.)
51. Washington - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami.
52. Tampa Bay - Justin King, CB, Penn State.
53. Pittsburgh - Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina.
54. Tennessee - Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State.
55. Seattle - Dre Moore, DT, Maryland.
56. Green Bay (from Cleveland) - Chad Henne, QB, Michigan.
57. Miami (from San Diego) - Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma. Better value as Zach Thomas' replacement than previous projected pick of Pat Sims.
58. Jacksonville - Carl Nicks, T, Nebraska.
59. Indy - Xavier Adibi, OLB, Va Tech.
60. GB - Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers.
61. Dallas - Brandon Flowers, CB, Va Tech.
62. NE - Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State.
63. NYG - Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton.

64. Miami - Pat Sims, DT, Auburn. Especially if Miami can select Sims here anyway.
65. RAMS - Will Franklin, WR, Missouri. Yeah, I know, no DE, no o-line depth. But they didn't invite that many DEs in in the first place, and my 2.0 mock has them waiting till the 4th for o-line anyway. I agree I'd like the Rams' mock a lot better if they got Jackson in round 2.

The Jared Allen trade is GREAT for Minnesota, who should come away from this draft with one of the top WR prospects as well as one of the league's best pass rushers. It's also GREAT for KC, who got very good value for a player they would have lost for nothing, a second first-round pick that really lets them rebuild their o-line while also replacing Allen somewhat adequately with Long (or Gholston) with their original pick.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Schedule projections

Over/under for Scott Linehan to keep his job after 2008: 7 wins.

Prediction for Rams' record in 2008: 4-12. Keep Marty Schottenheimer on speed dial.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The schedule's out!

The NFL released the 2008 regular-season schedule a half-hour ago. The good news for the Rams:
no three-game road trips and a stretch of four home games in five weeks near the end of the season. The bad news: they have an excellent chance of starting the season 0-8 again. The first half of this schedule is KILLER. And by the time it's done, all the teams they play in the 2nd half of the season that were lousy last year will probably all be better. If Scott Linehan survives this season, he must be a zombie or something.

Other notes: no prime-time games, not surprisingly.
The Rams open at home against the Super Bowl champs with two extra days of rest? Gee, thanks, NFL! Surprised the Rams didn't open with the Bears. That and the Dallas game could very well be the only home sellouts.
But Dallas and New England back-to-back? Criminy!
And the NFL made sure that life would suck for Rams fans by making us wait until the last home game for Isaac Bruce's return and forcing us to hear the Bruuuce call from San Francisco first.
Other than the nice home/road balance, I don't think the Rams caught a break in this schedule.
I take that back: after viewing the league schedule, for the first time I can remember, the Rams will not face a team coming off a bye week this season.


Wk Date Matchup Time
1 Sept. 7 at Philadelphia Eagles 1 p.m.
2 Sept. 14 New York Giants 1 p.m.
3 Sept. 21 at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.
4 Sept. 28 Buffalo Bills 4:05 p.m.
5 Oct. 5 Bye
6 Oct. 12 at Washington Redskins 1 p.m.
7 Oct. 19 Dallas Cowboys 1 p.m.
8 Oct. 26 at New England Patriots 1 p.m.
9 Nov. 2 Arizona Cardinals 1 p.m.
10 Nov. 9 at New York Jets 1 p.m.
11 Nov. 16 at San Francisco 49ers 4:05 p.m.
12 Nov. 23 Chicago Bears 1 p.m.
13 Nov. 30 Miami Dolphins 1 p.m.
14 Dec. 7 at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.
15 Dec. 14 Seattle Seahawks 1 p.m.
16 Dec. 21 San Francisco 49ers 1 p.m.
17 Dec. 28 at Atlanta Falcons 1 p.m.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Mock draft crunching, 4/11

Miami's opening of contract talks with Jake Long has spurred a flurry of activity in the mock draft world. Maybe someday I'll even get around to mine. For instance, Clark Judge at cbssports.com has bumped Jake up to #1 overall and has Chris Long going to the Rams. No problems there. But Judge does a very curious thing at Pittsburgh's #23 pick. He says Branden Albert should be gone by then, though he isn't, has the Steelers take Jeff Otah, and then doesn't have Albert drafted in the first round at all. In the RamView war room, I would find that unbelievable luck, assuming Miami doesn't want to draft offensive linemen first and second (though I would if I were them).

RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Branden Albert (Sweed, Groves and Mayo also on the board)

Huh, looks like I'm a big UVa fan.

Also at cbssports.com, Pete Prisco's mock is identical at the top. He remembers Albert and has him drafted at #13 by Carolina. Joining Albert as first rounders: Lawrence Jackson, Brandon Flowers, Justin King. Some possibilities for the Rams' #33 pick: Groves, Dan Connor, James Hardy, Antoine Cason.

RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - I'm not a big fan, but Chris Williams is usually a mock-draft first-rounder and would be a fine value pick at #33. He or Sam Baker would be great picks here.

The same site also has the Sports Xchange 4/8 mock by Rob Rang, who makes an interesting case that Miami's talks with Jake Long are a smokescreen, and that they'll take Chris Long, making Jake a Ram. In this two-round draft, Rang selects Dan Connor for the Rams in the 2nd round. Other notables: Groves and Campbell as first-rounders; Johnathan Stewart and DeSean Jackson both going to Dallas, (wow) making this a rare mock draft with Felix Jones sliding to the second round.

RamView selections: 1 - I have been slipping off the Vernon Gholston bandwagon lately and am leaning back toward taking Jake Long if Chris Long is drafted by Miami.
2 - Having gone OL in the first, I'm almost obliged to go with Limas Sweed in the 2nd. I agree with Rang's notion that the Rams are looking at LB, though, it's just not the position I would address here. Also available: Baker, Hardy, Flowers
3 - Less than optimal situation as far as RamView is concerned, because d-line has been gutted unless you want to go with project/pass rushers like Jason Jones or Jeremy Thompson. My pick would be Auburn CB Patrick Lee. There's also DaJuan Morgan, though he appears to be a free safety, or Maryland OLB Erin Henderson.
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At nfl.com, Vic Carucci's mock is as of Monday and seems likely to change, currently with Chris Long to Miami and Jake to the Rams. Campbell, King, Flowers and Kentwan Balmer will be happy to hear they're first-rounders here. Rams would probably be looking at Groves, Connor and Cason at #33.

RamView selections: 1 - Jake Long 2 - Quentin Groves

Also at nfl.com, Pat Kirwan has Chris Long going to Miami and Glenn Dorsey to the Rams. Apparently a Chiefs fan, he has them getting Jake Long fifth. He also drafts Albert seventh! - remember, Clark Judge left Albert out of his first round? In a bad mock for the Rams, six d-linemen, including Groves, go in the first.

RamView selections: 1 - Jake Long 2 - Limas Sweed
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nfldraftcountdown appears to be in the process of being updated right now. At least it better be, or else Scott Wright has Chris Williams getting drafted twice in the first round. I'll crunch that again later.
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draftdaddy was updated last weekend, with Chris Long going first, Gholston going to the Rams at #2 and DeSean Jackson coming here at #33. I have little to no problem with that, though they vaguely mention "off-the-field concerns" for Jackson, and the Rams don't need to draft any of those. Quirks here include Matt Ryan falling out of the top ten and Cliff Avril leaping into the first round, where SEVEN DEs and seven offensive linemen are selected.

RamView selections: 1 - Jake Long 2 - DeSean Jackson, unless this rumor pans out. Otherwise, d-line is gutted again and I'd probably take Jerod Mayo, with Lee, Connor, Campbell and Hardy also on the board. 3 - In retrospect, o-line, d-line and CB have been absolutely gutted by this point in draftdaddy's mock. I should have taken a defensive player in the 2nd round and I'd have had my pick at WR here, including Doucet, Bennett and Caldwell. Draft scenarios like this one really fortify the argument for taking Vernon Gholston at #2. But since I went WR in the 2nd, the best values left in the 3rd look like LBs, so I'd be looking at Curtis Lofton or Erin Henderson.
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Finishing with a quick look at the long-range draft sites:
Walterfootball: updated 4/10
1 - Vernon Gholston, with Chris Long going first, also believing Miami's Jake Long talks are a smokescreen
2 - Dan Connor
3 - Mario Manningham HELL NO!
4 - Kirk Barton
5 - Doug Legursky (C, Marshall)

RamView selections: 1 - Jake Long, though I'm starting to like Gholston again; 2 - Lawrence Jackson; 3 - absolutely Reggie Smith if he falls here; 4 - Dexter Jackson; 5 - Bruce Davis.

Walterfootball has Campbell as a FOURTH-rounder, btw.
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Last but not least, drafttek:
1 - Chris Long
2 - Quentin Groves
3 - Charles Godfrey
4 - Will Franklin
5 - Jamar Adams (SS - Michigan)
6 - Kevin O'Connell (QB - San Diego State)
6b - Jamey Richard (C - Buffalo)
7a - Mike Gibson (T - California)
7b - Jerome Felton (FB - Furman)

RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long; 2 - Quentin Groves; 3 - Jordy Nelson; 4 - Josh Barrett; 5 - Drew Radovich; 6a - Terrence Wheatley; 6b - Kenny Iwebema; 7a - Gary Barnidge; 7b - Shannon Boatman.

Boy, drafttek and I were both terrible about offensive line...

Monday, April 7, 2008

NFL throws back Rams' throwback request

One thing Rams fans have been looking forward to, probably ever since the Rams switched to the current "millennium blue" and "new century gold" uniforms prior to the 2000 season, is a throwback uniform day where we get to see the team in the old blue and gold (er, yellow), or even cooler, the old blue and white of the Fearsome Foursome days. Chip Rosenbloom recently made a request to the league for a throwback game with the old blue and gold, as a tribute to his mother Georgia Frontiere.


The NFL smacked the request down. No matter what the reason, apparently, a YEAR of lead time is required to allow a team to have a throwback uniform game.


Which leads me to several questions.



1 - is this why the Rams never play on Thanksgiving, when everyone wears throwback uniforms? (Though I'm not certain on the new, third, night game)


2 - Was a YEAR of lead time really necessary to facilitate this abomination?

















3 - Is a year of lead time required to burn the Rams' blue and white alternate pants? 'Cause I've got plenty of lighter fluid...

Friday, April 4, 2008

Quick mock draft crunching, 4/4

Pro Football Weekly's lastest mock has Jake Long going first, Glenn Dorsey to the Rams, and Chris Long dropping all the way to New England at #7. It's another mock that pegs Calais Campbell as a first-rounder, and also makes a first-rounder out of Mario Manningham.

Wow.

PFW also takes Sam Baker, one of my usual 2nd round suspects, in the first. Given who's left, I'd be looking next at Quentin Groves, LBs like Dan Connor and Jerod Mayo, Antoine Cason and SS Kenny Philips, who I usually ignore 1 - because he's usually gone by now and 2 - the Rams' Hurricane jinx.

RamView selections: 1st - Chris Long, 2nd- Philips, who seems like a heck of a deal here, jinx be damned. My sneaking position is that the Rams would take Mayo in this scenario.

Preseason schedule is out

The Rams' preseason schedule is out, and it looks like a good one. My ideal preseason for the Rams this year would have been to play a bunch of fellow losing teams, because losing teams always try harder to win preseason games and the Rams frankly need the challenge. Plus, with the exception of the hallowed Governor's Cup game, I never want to see the Rams in a preseason game against an opponent they'll also face in the regular season. Along those lines, I was thinking Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens, Bengals for this preseason.

The Rams will in fact face two of those teams, the Chiefs and Ravens. They'll open preseason against Jeff Fisher's Titans. He always seems to take preseason more seriously than he should, so Tennessee's also a perfect preseason opponent for this year's Rams.

The one dud on the preseason schedule would appear to be the home curtain-raiser against the Chargers, who seem likely to keep as many of their starters on the bench as possible, especially LT.

But overall, this is a preseason schedule that ought to help the Rams out a lot, and give us all a good gauge of where they stand when they hit the regular season, especially if Scott Linehan has smartened up and uses the starters more this August as he's indicated he will in recent interviews.

Rams preseason schedule:
August 7-11 @ Tennessee
August 14-18 vs. San Diego
August 21-25 vs. Baltimore
August 28-29 @ Kansas City

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Rules committee: Deee-fense!

Traditionally, the NFL has made rule changes with the goal of increasing offense in mind. As the rulebook has evolved over the years, practically every change has been to help the offense and increase offensive output.

This year, though, the NFL's defenses are getting the help. A TON of help.

* The sideline forceout rule on receptions has been essentially eliminated. If you're a receiver and don't get two feet in bounds, whether or not the defender hits you, you're screwed. The defender actually has to carry the receiver out of bounds for the referee to call a foreceout. This is a massive rule change, and I'm surprised the offensively-minded NFL has gone this way. It affects every team's goal-line passing strategy, and it would appear to KILL the Linehan offense of throwing everything to the sideline. Good thing Al Saunders is here. Then again, half the time, the referees ignored the fact the defender drove the receiver out of bounds anyway, so this rule change could be negligible. Physical CBs just got that more valuable.

* The five-yard facemask penalty has been eliminated, which would appear to mean incidental facemask penalties won't get flagged at all. That would seem to save defenses a lot of automatic first downs that they would have given up in the past. I suspect the league will tighten how it calls 15-yarders, in order to maintain player safety, but this rule should still help defenses.

* A direct snap that the QB doesn't touch is now a fumble instead of a false start. Funny, I thought that play was a fumble already. It sure should be; now it is. Another chance for the defense to take away the ball.

* Though I'd prefer the radio helmet for QBs to be eliminated, because it makes crowd noise/participation irrelevant, the league has evened things up by allowing a radio helmet on defense. Seems like this will create blitz opportunities and defensive big plays while also eliminating some defensive gaffes that allow big plays on offense.

Even the Rams defense should be better next season, given the help everyone's getting from the NFL rules committee.

Mock draft crunching: Kiper, 4/3

Just got a copy of Mel Kiper's latest mock draft:

1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long, OT Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long, DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
4 Oakland Raiders *Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs *Branden Albert, OT/G Virginia
6 New York Jets *Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio St.
7 New England Patriots (from SF) *Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
8 Baltimore Ravens Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
9 Cincinnati Bengals Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
10 New Orleans Saints Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee St.
11 Buffalo Bills *Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
12 Denver Broncos Keith Rivers, LB USC
13 Carolina Panthers *Ryan Clady, OT Boise St.
14 Chicago Bears Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
15 Detroit Lions *Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
16 Arizona Cardinals Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
17 Minnesota Vikings *Phillip Merling, DE Clemson
18 Houston Texans *Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
19 Philadelphia Eagles Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
21 Washington Redskins *Devin Thomas, WR Michigan St.
22 Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) *Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
23 Pittsburgh Steelers Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina
24 Tennessee Titans *DeSean Jackson, WR California
25 Seattle Seahawks Dustin Keller, TE Purdue
26 Jacksonville Jaguars Lawrence Jackson, DE USC
27 San Diego Chargers Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College
28 Dallas Cowboys *Justin King, CB Penn St.
29 San Francisco 49ers (from IND) *Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee
30 Green Bay Packers *Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech
31 New England Patriots Forfeited pick
32 New York Giants Tyrell Johnson, S Arkansas St.

The notable thing about Kiper's mock is that he has just two WR's going in the first round - Devin Thomas and DeSean Jackson - giving the Rams pretty much whoever they want in round 2. Quentin Groves would be a logical pick for Miami at 33, but he could also be on the board, as would Sam Baker and Antoine Cason.

RamView's selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Limas Sweed

That's a helluva start if things go the way Kiper sees them.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Mock draft crunching, 4/2

At nfl.com, Pat Kirwan has Vernon Gholston going #1 overall and Chris Long to the Rams. The way his first round shakes out, I'd be between Sam Baker and Antoine Cason in the 2nd round. Thomas, Hardy and Sweed are his first round WRs, leaving me not really big right now on the remaining WR prospects in the 2nd round.
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Sam Baker, though I'm waffling

Vic Carucci goes with Chris Long to Miami, Jake Long to the Rams. Gholston goes sixth. Carucci's mock is fairly, well, let's say different, with a bizarre seven DBs going in the first round and a first round nod for Calais Campbell. Really? James Hardy's available in this scenario; unfortunately for him, he has dropped off RamView's board thanks to the knowledge that he's a woman-beater. Taking Jake Long first does work great in this mock, though, because the Rams would likely be able to choose between Philip Merling and Quentin Groves in the second round. Baker and Cason would also be available, as would a curve ball in RB Jonathan Stewart. But even if I took Long or Gholston for the Rams at #2, if the board is still that well-stacked in the second round, I'm going DE again, or trading down for a bushel of picks.
RamView selections: 1 - Vernon Gholston 2 - Philip Merling. Pass. Rush.

Scott Wright hasn't updated the mock at nfldraftcountdown since St. Patrick's Day. It's still Jake Long first, with the Rams taking Chris Long in the 1st and Mario Manningham in the 2nd.
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Baker or Cason, still waffling

draftdaddy hasn't updated its mock since 3/20. They still go with Chris Long first, Vernon Gholston to the Rams. I'll update my scenario, though:
RamView selections: 1 - Gholston 2 - Devin Thomas

Walterfootball's five-round mock as of 3/27:
1 - Gholston 2 - Anthony Collins 3 - Manningham 4 - Steve Justice 5 - Ali Highsmith
RamView selections: I'm still right on board with this draft. I haven't seen Collins quite this high before. He's probably worth it, or Baker could go there instead. I'm fine with Manningham as a third-rounder. And I'm big on drafting a center. In the 5th, I'd prefer Bruce Davis or Marcus Griffin, with Lavelle Hawkins and Steve Slaton temptingly, and surprisingly, available.

Closing with the big drafttek seven-round draft: (drafttek pretty much updates its mock daily)
1 - Chris Long 2 - Early Doucet 3 - Cliff Avril 4 - Andre Woodson 5 - Patrick Lee
6a - Caleb Campbell 6b - Fernando Velasco 7a - Spencer Larsen Mr. Irrelevant - Jerome Felton

RamView selections:
1 - Chris Long
2 - Sam Baker unless I become a big Doucet fan
3 - Earl Bennett, though I like how drafttek's going after pass rushers for the Rams.
4 - Josh Barrett (WTF, drafttek? ANDRE WOODSON?)
5 - I'd sure take Lee if he's still there; he's a 2nd or 3rd-rounder in most mocks.
6a - Tommy Blake. I've got two sixth-rounders; I'll gamble with one.
6b - Terrence Wheatley for value
7a - Malik Jackson
7b - Shannon Boatman

Hard to see the DBs shaking out like this. I also didn't get my center.

3 1/2 weeks to go!

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

The draft guides are here! The draft guides are here!

Monday was a particularly big day in the land of RamView, as the mail brought both the annual Pro Football Weekly Draft Guide and the scout.com draft guide. I've used both extensively in past draft analysis. A couple of quick observations on both, before I get myself to the business of devouring these things and stacking RamView's board:

The scout.com guide is quite disappointing this year. Instead of the comprehensive guide they've put together in the past, this year they're only breaking down the top 15 players at each position. Given the publishing time lag, this guide is worth less now than the Sporting News issue that'll come out right before the draft and will probably list more players.

Another interesting item is that scout.com ranked Vernon Gholston #THIRTY-SIX overall, and ranked him fifth-best at DE, behind Quentin Groves and Philip Merling. Yet their mock still had him going #2 overall to the Rams, with the Dolphins taking Chris Long. Their top players are Darren McFadden and Glenn Dorsey.

PFW bizarrely has the Dolphins taking Matt Ryan, followed by the Rams taking... Jake Long. I just cannot see the Rams leaving Chris Long AND Vernon Gholston on the board after they pick. Interestingly, PFW has Ryan ranked as THE top player in the draft, with a 7.00 ranking (9 = top rating = "once-in-a-lifetime player"), matching Jake Long and Dorsey. That's the first suggestion I've seen anywhere that Ryan is the best player. I don't even think Ryan's mother's mock draft has him going higher than 3. They also agree with Scott Wright that Jeff Otah's going 5th. Huh. Those 7's seem awful low as the high ratings compared to past drafts, but I'll have to go back and research that.

Mr. Irrelevant will be a Ram

The NFL awarded supplementary draft picks yesterday. Four picks were added to the end of the third round, so it'll be that much harder for the Rams to land a player they want early in the 4th round. They were awarded a pick in the 7th - the very last pick of the draft, in fact. The lucky player drafted with that pick will become "Mr. Irrelevant" and have a parade thrown in his honor in some hick California town. No, I'm not making that up.

What the Rams should do is put together a list of high-character players worth honoring with a parade, whether or not they're position needs or even capable of making the Rams' roster, and take the best one at #252.

Why not? Why not use the opportunity to honor a student for heroism or community service? I doubt Mr. Irrelevants have a great track record of making their teams anyway - why not treat that pick like you're looking for the best person to give an honor to, and if he can actually play, it's all the better?

Training for success

I don't get to say Scott Linehan is doing something right very often, but after reading the Post-Dispatch's recent article on the changes the Rams are making in their training routine, there may still be reason to believe the coach still gets it.

Some of the team's new training techniques include bringing in a special speed trainer and a hand-to-hand combat trainer. First off, I thought most teams already had these trainers, so it's smart (and overdue) for the Rams to follow suit. See if these moves don't pay off in an improved pass rush next season.

They're also adding some special exercises to prevent injuries, which were epidemic last year on a team you'd have to argue was pretty poorly trained. They've added exercises designed to cut down on labrum and rotator cuff injuries, a must insurance policy for an offense that's relying heavily on Orlando Pace to bounce back from a couple of injury-filled seasons. (Ironically, now that he shows up for training camp on time, he's hurt frequently in the regular season.) And trying to cut down on high ankle sprains, they're adding a sand pit for running drills to strengthen ankles.

Excellent preventative, toughening, strengthening and technique-improving measures. Major credit to Linehan for innovating in the training program and using it to attack where the team has weaknesses. Linehan also deserves major credit for listening to his players, because the sand pit idea came from Brett Romberg, who ran in one at The U.

I'm not a fan of the impending training camp move, but Linehan is taking positive steps toward putting a fitter and more focused team on the field in 2008.

Recent history of the #2 pick

I went over to drafthistory.com and put together this list, the second player taken in the first three rounds for the last 20 years.

2007 Calvin Johnson, Paul Posluszny, Usama Young
2006 Reggie Bush, D'Qwell Jackson, Eric Winston
2005 Ronnie Brown, Brodney Pool, OJ Atogwe
2004 Robert Gallery, Chris Snee, Nate Kaeding
2003 Charles Rogers, Boss Bailey, Corey Redding
2002 Julius Peppers, DeShaun Foster, Matt Schobel
2001 Leonard Davis, Quincy Morgan, Adrian Wilson
2000 LaVar Arrington, Darren Howard, Lloyd Harrison
1999 Donovan McNabb, Charles Fisher, Doug Brzezinski
1998 Ryan Leaf, Jerome Pathon, Jon Ritchie
1997 Darrell Russell, Nathan Davis, Troy Davis
1996 Kevin Hardy, Leeland McElroy, Aaron Beasley
1995 Tony Boselli, Terrance Shaw, William Henderson
1994 Marshall Faulk, Tre Johnson, Jason Mathews
1993 Rick Mirer, Chris Slade, Billy Joe Hobert
1992 Quentin Coryatt, Steve Israel, Clayton Holmes
1991 Eric Turner, Ed King, James Jones
1990 Blair Thomas, Darian Conner, Oliver Barnett
1989 Tony Mandarich, John Ford, Matt Brock
1988 Neil Smith, Chris Spielman, Kevin Walker

What can we take away from this? There are a TON of busts taken #2 overall. QB is a bust position, with McNabb overwhelmed by Leaf and Mirer. At tackle, Boselli is badly outnumbered by Mandarich, Gallery and Davis, who busted with the Big Dead but has become a force at OG in Dallas. LB is a major bust with Hardy and Coryatt washing out Arrington.

On the plus side, RB is pretty safe. Faulk may be the only Hall of Famer in this bunch; he, Brown and Bush more than make up for Blair Thomas. The safest position is -ahem- defensive end. They may not be HoFers, but Julius Peppers and Neil Smith have both been dominating DEs, and Russell was an almost immediate Pro Bowler on a great career path until drugs took him down.

It's eye-opening how few impact players are selected with the second pick in the second round. WRs Morgan and Pathon aren't really distinguished. The offensive line contingent of King, Johnson and Snee is decent, though hardly world-beating. The best positions seem to be LB and DE, though they don't come without their share of busts. Darren Howard's probably the best player taken in that slot the last 20 years, though Jackson is quickly on his way up.

Usama Young, Atogwe, Wilson and Beasley all make very good cases for grabbing a DB in the third round, especially when the 2nd round CBs are pretty bust-y. Outside of d-backs, and bizarrely, fullbacks and kickers, the slot's a total crapshoot, with emphasis on the first syllable.

The best position to draft at #2 in the 4th round is arguably guard (John Welbourne, Hunter Goodwin, Max Jean-Gilles), though Derrick Mason was drafted in that slot in 1997. DB and DT would be the positions to tend to avoid.

If we're to use the history of the #2 pick as a guide, the Rams would be better served to draft a DE in the first round, an o-lineman, LB or DE in the 2nd and a DB in the third.

I swear the eerie similarities between this analysis and my thoughts on who the Rams should draft in 2008 are coincidental.


Reche Caldwell signed

Clearing out a couple of items from last week:

The DC pipeline is flowing freely with the arrival of Al Saunders from the Redskins. Following Al and David Macklin to Rams Park is WR Reche Caldwell. He's ostensibly the replacement for Isaac Bruce, though he's had one season of more catches (61) than Isaac had last year (55). And that 61-catch 2006 season happened because he dumb-lucked his way into the #1 receiver role in New England's offense. The Patriots loved him so much, they acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kelley Washington after the 2006 season and cut Caldwell loose.

Apparently a Friend of Al, Caldwell's here after a big 15-catch half-season in Washington as the Redskins' #3 WR. At Washington, the #3 WR was more of a sixth or seventh option in a passing game that likes to throw to the backs and where TE Chris Cooley was the leading receiver.

Caldwell's in the same boat as other veterans just signed like Macklin and James Hall. The more any of these guys play, the worse off the Rams will be, because they shouldn't be anything more than depth, if they even make the roster. I'd rather draft Reche's brother Andre and have him make the team than sign Reche.

The Rams have signed veterans at WR, DE and CB the last couple of weeks while managing not to relieve their need to draft at any of the three positions.