But my reasons to pick against Atlanta are still there. Their playoff jinx. Their games against Carolina lead you to think they'll have a lot of trouble with Russell Wilson's mobility. And, I say most of all, all three of their coordinators, the OC, the DC, AND the special teams coach, have been busy during the break interviewing for other teams' head coaching jobs. I have never seen anything like that. All three coordinators? Good luck to the Falcons, but you know none of those coaches have been fully devoted to beating the Seahawks this week.
Really? Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick are Fox's #2 team? OK, here we go, then.
FIRST QUARTER
Atlanta wins the coin toss and elects to receive. Jacquizz Rodgers starts them at the 25. Fox lists him as the starting RB today, which especially raises my eyebrow when we clearly see Michael Turner in the opening backfield. Richard Sherman breaks up an opening long sideline pass for Julio Jones, but Turner breaks about five tackles on a 15-yard run up the middle. Turner sweeps right, a curious play choice, and is too slow to hit a gaping hole for more than 2 yards. Seahawks starting out poorly on run defense again. Pick on Kam Chancellor gets Tony Gonzalez open for 8 on a sideline screen, to midfield. Pitch right to Rodgers gets 7 more. We'll give the key block to Peter Konz there. They try to run Rodgers at Red Bryant; um, that's a mismatch. 3rd-and-2. Roddy White beats Sherman on a sideline comeback route for 12, at the SEA29. Rodgers goes into the middle, disappears, and pops out for 7 yards on the other side of the line. Does the NFL have a rule against de-materializing? Much slower and easier to find, especially when you're stupidly running him outside, Turner fails to gain on the outer left edge. 3rd-3. Play-action. Bruce Irvin leaps and discourages Ryan from throwing a screen. Ryan looks downfield and has White all alone in the end zone on a post route, but Sherman closes like the wind to knock the pass down. Atlanta has to settle for Matt Bryant's 39-yard FG. Falcons 3, Seahawks 0
Don't look now, but the Seahawks are off to a better start than they had last week.
Billick says Ryan was actually faking that screen. That's a dumb play, then. Took too long to develop. Lynch, also not an edge rusher, gets stopped by John Abraham and has to cut back inside for 2. Option read goes to Lynch on 2nd down but he's immediately stuffed by the Falcon LBs. 3rd-and-6, Russell Wilson gets lots of time and has Sidney Rice open on an out in front of two Falcons, but overthrows him by a mile. 1-2-3-kick. Terrible punt by Jon Ryan sets up shop for Atlanta at midfield. You're in a f*cking domed stadium, kick the thing farther than 30 yards, idiot.
Zach Miller runs into the locker room, which would be a big loss for Wilson after he was such a reliable receiver for him last week. Smoke pass to Julio sets up 3rd-and-3. Rodgers picks one blitzer up well, but the other forces a quick and idiotic throw from Matt Ryan, directly to Bobby Wagner at the Seahawk 33. Handed a golden opportunity, has Ryan instead taken just 8 minutes to start crapping the bed? Some of those awesome Atlanta fans boo their QB off the field at a home playoff game.
Wilson looks for Anthony McCoy but has his short pass swatted down by Sean Weatherspoon. Kind of the Atlanta fans to yell "Mizzou" after the play in honor of Sean's alma mater. ;) Wilson gets nearly NINE seconds in the pocket the next play before he scrambles up the middle for 17 to midfield. That wasn't a contain rush by Atlanta, either; Seattle's o-line just absolutely pwned them. Lynch gets the ball on an option read and cuts back up the middle for 12, but puts the ball on the ground at the end after Spoon strips him from behind. Surprising fumble problems for Lynch here in the playoffs. Atlanta ball at the 39.
Out route to Julio, tiptoeing in for 13. Sideline bomb for White is incomplete, with Sherman right on him. Turner gets room on a sweep right for 5 behind fullback Mike Cox's block, and Wagner horse-collars him to move Atlanta down to the SEA29. The Seattle LBs make it up by stuffing Turner up the middle for 1. K.J. Wright breaks up a pass for Julio in the flat. False start now on Konz makes it 3rd-and-14. But Seattle rushes just 3 when they've been barely putting any heat on Ryan anyway, and White makes a diving catch for 17. Chase Coffman (!) makes an acrobatic overhead catch just in bounds at the 1. Ryan rolls left, lets DE Greg Scruggs run right at him, and hits Gonzalez in the very back of the end zone, staying in for inches. Looks like Ryan's bed is clean again. Falcons 10, Seahawks 0
Kam Chancellor actually uncovered Gonzalez as that TD pass was thrown. Not sure what was going on there. 3:10 before Seattle can start playing, I guess.
Zach Miller starts this drive with an awesome diving catch on a corner route for 23. Wilson beats another Falcon blitz to Miller over the middle at midfield for 8. Lynch converts the first down with a 6-yard run. Wilson has to throw away a 2nd-and-8 pass under pressure from Jonathan Babineaux despite getting an eternity on the boot, then misses Rice badly with a sideline pass. Punt will start Atlanta at the 13.
Identity theft! as Rodgers makes like Lynch for a 46-yard gain. (Quit stealing my lines, Billick!) He gets a key downblock by center Todd McClure and a cut block by tackle Tyson Clabo. Then he runs out of Red Bryant's clutches and runs OVER Earl Thomas after a massive collision before turning Chancellor inside-out at midfield to perfect the clip for his highlight reel.
First quarter can't end fast enough for Seattle.
SECOND QUARTER
Seattle was outgained 158-70 in the first quarter, a verifiable defensive meltdown. If not for Sherman breaking up deep passes, which he does again on a try to Julio, I'd already be writing the postgame show. Dumpoff to White gets only 3, so it's 3rd-7 at the SEA39. Critical stop here for the Seahawks, but they need a timeout first. Thomas can't take down the physical Julio, though, before he gains 9 on a drag route. With Chancellor all over him, Gonzalez grabs the back of the ball to set up 3rd-and-1 at the 20, which Turner grinds out behind Cox. Ryan sprints out and scrambles down to the 10 to leave Atlanta 3rd-and-2, but the line false-starts again. Looks like the extra week off has thrown off some of their timing. Ryan throws a quick screen to White against a blitz, but Brandon Browner blows it up at the 20 for a loss. Matt Bryant extends the lead from 37. Falcons 13-0
Atlanta has over a 3-to-1 edge in possession right now. Time for Seattle to do something, if they're going to do anything.
Desperate to make something happen, Leon Washington returns the kickoff from the back of his end zone and gets out to the 30. A spark, maybe? Hmm, Miller splits double-coverage down the middle for 34. Wilson gets all day to throw again and hits Golden Tate at the ATL20. Bubble screen to Lynch sets up 3rd-and-1 at the 11. With Lynch OFF THE FIELD, but Pete Carroll running onto it failing to get a timeout called, Babineux and Vance Walker clog up the middle and stuff Robert Turbin for no gain. Seattle lines up to go for it on 4th down, and try handing off to the up man, Michael Robinson, and it fails miserably. Miller opened up a hole for him, but William Moore blitzed through it to nail Robinson for a loss.
Get the ball to your best players with the game on the line, idiots. Jesus Christ. Give it to Lynch, or fake it to him and bootleg Wilson. 49ers can book their airfare east right now.
And now it's Turner gashing the Seattle run D, for 33. He gets another solid block by Cox, a double-team pancakes Brandon Mebane, and he runs through Wright and Wagner downfield. Holding on Chancellor puts Atlanta across midfield.
And this one is over. Ryan bombs away for White down the middle, Sherman slips to the turf, Chancellor is too late getting there, TD. Congratulations to the Falcons for proving a lot of folks wrong. Falcons 20-0
I'll at least get to conserve some energy recapping this game. Welcome to Trash Time Mode.
Has Wilson kept the ball yet on any of these option reads? A quick screen to Tate gets one first down, and Wilson scrambles for another to his 48 at the 2:00 warning. Wilson hits Miller wide open up the seam at the ATL35. I don't think the Falcons have covered him yet today. Sidney Rice finally gets in the game with a catch inside the 20, and it's Miller again at the 10 with 0:30 to go. Seattle gets a 1st down inside the 10 and uses their last timeout at 0:25. But not only can they not punch it in from there, they can't even get a FG. Russell Okung false starts. Tate never even makes it to the end zone on an attempted fade pass. Babineaux then whips J.R. Sweezy with a club move and sacks Wilson with 12 seconds left. Unable to spike or call a timeout, Seattle can't get the FG team out, and they can't even get a play off on 4th-and-goal.
Game, set, match, halftime.
HALFTIME SHOW
My only practical advice for the Seahawks at halftime is to start making tee times. They need Wilson running more off option reads; I don't think he's kept one yet. Passing game needs to shorten up because they're not getting open enough down field, and keep beating Atlanta's heads in with Miller.
I don't have any answers for Seattle on defense. They're undermanned without Clemons and they're not stopping the run. Just blitz your asses off until you fall four scores behind and see what happens, I guess.
For Atlanta, don't get too silly with prevent defense, and don't get too silly with risky plays with your starters while holding a big lead; you'll need them next week against San Francisco. Concentrate hard on keeping Wilson in the pocket, since you'll need to do that to beat Colin Kaepernick next week.
THIRD QUARTER
Wilson scrambles for 20 out to midfield after hitting Rice for an initial first down. He sneaks for another first down at the ATL40, but gets sacked by Vance Walker for an 8-yard loss the next play. Nice containment on that rush by the Falcon line; it was 9 seconds between the sack and Wilson going down. Seattle gets the first down the next play anyway, with Wilson hitting Miller again, wide open in the seam again, for 19 to beat a blitz. And, how do you do, Tate runs a simple fly route down the near sideline, Wilson hits him at the 6, completely miserable tackle attempt by the completely overrated Dunta Robinson, TD, Seattle. Falcons 20, Seahawks 7
A TD right out of the locker room is exactly what the Seahawks needed, but they HAVE to follow it with a stop on D.
Seahawks force an early 3rd-and-5, but Ryan hits Gonzalez for 5 to beat a blitz. Ryan gets all day and hits Julio at the 45 for another 1st. He fires a pretty sideline pass to Harry Douglas for another at the SEA44. After Douglas drops a TD bomb, Julio smokes much-too-soft coverage by Browner and Thomas for 21 on just a short slant. It just ain't gonna happen for Seattle today. Gonzalez makes a catch at the 10 even with Winston Guy draped all over him. Jason Snelling eventually scores on a 5-yard shovel pass. Sherman blocks the PAT but was well offside. Seattle jumps early again on the re-kick but Bryant hits it. I actually like that aggressiveness. I don't think teams are aggressive enough trying to block kicks in crucial situations. Falcons 27, Seahawks 7
Seattle continues to fake running Wilson on the read option without actually doing it, and they deserve major criticism for leaving one of their best weapons in the holster today. Wilson scrambles forever on 2nd down and hits Tate for a big gain at midfield. Play-action pass to Rice gets them to the ATL39. And here's Miller, wide open yet again on another corner route, all the way down to the 13, after Wilson play-fakes again. Seattle's going to need an epic fourth quarter, though.
FOURTH QUARTER
Turbin crawls to the 7 with a swing pass, then steams down to the 1 off John Moffitt's block. They try a play-action pass on 2nd-and-goal, but when Atlanta covers everyone, Wilson sprints left for a short TD to keep Seattle on the fringe of being in the game. Falcons 27, Seahawks 14
Turner turns the left corner for 9 and bangs out a first down to his 33. Dirk Koetter gets too silly, though, calling an end-around for Julio that nets a loss. Then with rare pressure in his face, Ryan throws his second TERRIBLE interception of the day, a deep floater for double-covered White that Earl Thomas snags easily near his own 40. 11:04 left. Here comes Seattle?
Rice wide open on a deep crossing pattern for 24. Lynch gets 5 up the middle as Wilson fakes the read option for the millionth time. With Moffitt coming back to make a block that saves a sack, Wilson steps up and dumps off to Turbin, who jukes Robert McClain and runs through Stephen Nicholas' awful tackle for a 30-yard gain that puts Seattle on the 3. Play action at the goal line, and look who is wide open again, Zach Miller, for the TD. Falcons 27, Seahawks 21
Ladies and gentlemen. We have ourselves a freaking ball game!
Wilson's now over 300 passing yards. They haven't really shortened up their passing game. Maybe a little, but they're killing Atlanta with play-action.
While Clabo gets away with a hold on the edge, Ryan misses White breaking open late at the sideline from his own 24. K.J. Wright, who is damn good at this, blows up a screen to Julio for a 4-yard loss. Maybe don't run that play at him! Trips right, Ryan finds Drew Davis in the short flat, but he falls and Thomas holds him well short of the first down. Three and out. Here comes Seattle!
Washington brings a poor punt back to his own 40. Atlanta might as well break out an alternate blue uniform next year in honor of their tradition of postseason choking. They are turning cyanotic right now.
Wilson dances out of pocket peril and sprints out to near midfield. Spoon stuffs Lynch at the 50, but can't prevent the 1st down. Thomas DeCoud breaks up a deep ball for Rice that was right there. The Falcon D blows up a screen on 2nd down, leaving 3rd-and-10. Rice blows a catch that would have been a first down, but Max Unger chop-blocked Babineaux to keep him from running Wilson down. Seahawks punt with 5:40 left, but it's a touchback. Jon Ryan has been poor this week.
Turner bounces outside right for 12, and Seattle better lock this down right now. Red Bryant holds Rogers to a yard up the middle. Browner then spins Rogers down for no gain on a pitch left. 3rd-and-8. With Seattle running a risky delay blitz over LT, Ryan's throw for White running an out route isn't good enough, and White fails to come up with it. Washington brings another poor punt back to his 40 with 3:00 left.
Lynch up the middle for 3. The ends collapse the pocket on Wilson but he squirts forward and hits Lynch in the flat for 7 at the 2:00 warning. Play-action again, Wilson steps up into a big throwing lane and hits Tate at the Atlanta 32. He steps up again and runs for 5 more. Seattle not in a big hurry here, there's only 50 seconds left when they run the next play, an end zone pass McCoy can't get anywhere near. 3rd-5. Spoon blitzes and nearly takes Wilson down, but he wheels away, and there's Lynch all alone in the flat for a dumpoff. Marshawn charges down to the 4-yard line. 34 seconds left. The choking Falcons put too many men on the field on 1st-and-goal; set the Seahawks up at the 2. They have all three timeouts left and can do anything they want to.
Lynch takes an inside handoff, twists, and gets the ball blasted loose by Moore at the goal line. It bounces right to Unger, who gets help from Breno Giacomini to cradle the ball safely into the end zone. It will be Seattle's ball, but not a TD, if Walt Anderson rules a fumble, because we're at the point of the game where Lynch is the only person who can advance it. But it looks like Lynch broke the plane to me. And to Mike Pereira. Anderson doesn't need a long time under the hood.
Holy sweet baby Jesus, touchdown, Seattle! Substitute kicker Ryan Longwell hits the extra point. Seahawks 28, Falcons 27
The Atlanta Falcons have 31 seconds to prevent one of the all-time, epic playoff chokes.
Rogers returns the kick to the 28. 0:25 left for Ryan.Whoa, Ryan hits Douglas on a deep out at midfield with a pretty pass. 19 seconds left. They're another good pass away from FG range. Seattle blitzes, but little Rogers picks it up and Ryan hits Tony Gonzalez, desperately hoping to win a playoff game for the first time in his career, at the 31. 13 seconds left. They're definitely in Matt Bryant's range. They use their final timeout and bring Bryant straight out.
Let me first amend what I was saying earlier. 49 yards is hard enough to make that I don't want my defense jumping offside and making it easier. But your season is on the line and you do have to be aggressive. If this were like a 29-yarder, I wouldn't be afraid to tell the FG unit not to worry so much about being offside. Do whatever you can to get the jump. Longer kick, let's concentrate more on getting tall in the middle.
And now things get bizarre. Pete Carroll calls timeout to freeze Bryant, then acts like he didn't call one, even though replay shows him calling it right in the linesman's ear. Then, with whistles clearly blowing, Bryant launches the kick anyway, and it's wide right. I don't know what Carroll's going on about, and I don't know why Bryant went ahead and kicked it. Phew.
So, let's line up and try this again. Good snap, good hold, Bryant drills it right down the middle. Falcons 30, Seahawks 28.
Eight seconds left, though Carroll has thrown off all his equipment like the game is over.
It just now dawned on me that Billick is calling a game coached by his brother-in-law, Mike Smith.
Holy f*cking cats. Atlanta's attempt at a squib kick is basically an onside kick, and Seattle falls on it AROUND MIDFIELD! There's enough time for them to get a completion and a FG attempt of their own!
Make it the Seattle 45. Wilson hits Doug Baldwin at the Atlanta 48, which would leave a 65-yard FG. Can you imagine if the Rams were in this situation? Jeff Fisher would be sending Greg Zuerlein in! I don't think Longwell has the leg to get this, though. I wonder if injured kicker Steven Hauschka would have.
Big Ben time for Seattle. Golden Tate does not get to elbow a defensive back to the ground without a flag this time. Seattle's receivers never really get into the end zone for the ball before Julio Jones - yes, Julio Jones, leaps and highpoints Wilson's throw for what I assume is his first career interception.
What an awesome game.
Final score: Atlanta 30, Seattle 28
Hey, congratulations to Tony Gonzalez for finally getting his first career playoff win. The romantic in me says to pick him for POTG, so I'll do it. He co-led the Falcons in receptions, had the difficult TD catch, and made the catch to set up the game-winning FG. POTG could easily have gone to an o-lineman - I was thinking Tyson Clabo - as Atlanta won this game most decisively in the trenches. They ran very well and Clabo kept Bruce Irwin from doing much of anything all game.
My gambling account takes a hit straight-up, but I got the over (which is 7-for-7 now this postseason), and Seattle got me the cover. So I'm 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U. Making fictional money!
I hate, hate, hate to say this, because the two things I want most to avoid are a Super Bowl with the two franchises I despise the most, or a Harbaugh Bowl. But the 49ers should whip the Falcons next week. Atlanta was so poor at containing Wilson (which they never did), they'll never contain Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Greg Roman will, unlike Seattle's OC, have the brain to use that read option weapon and attack that weakness. I'll root for Atlanta, but I'm picking San Francisco all the way here.
Seattle will enter the 2013 considered one of the top Super Bowl contenders, and they look strong or up-and-coming in almost every aspect of the game. Knowing that Chris Clemons is not likely to be healthy to start the season, they can start working now on strengthening their pass rush. I wouldn't be afraid to beef up at DT, either, in their shoes. Theirs didn't do much today.
OK, off to close out the weekend in Foxborough.
-$-
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