Sunday, January 20, 2013

NFC Championship: San Francisco 28, Atlanta 24

Has it been a week already? It must be, here we are for the NFC title match between the 49ers and Falcons. I've got the Rams' NFC West rivals in this one. The Falcons did nothing against Russell Wilson last week that makes me think Colin Kaepernick won't run wild on them. And Matt Ryan played a pretty iffy game for a QB getting almost no pass rush in his face. The 49ers will get after him a lot better than the injured Seahawks did, unless Justin Smith doesn't hold up.

Buck and Aikman, of course, with the call for Fox.

FIRST QUARTER
Anyone out there who prefers an outdoor stadium to a dome: did you SEE Erin Matthews finally dump the Gore-Tex Michelin Man coat in favor of skin-tight leather pants? That is now permanently etched into every list of the benefits of a domed stadium.

49ers win the coin toss, defer, and kick out the back of the end zone to start things off. Julio Jones beats Tarell Brown across the 35, but NaVarro Bowman stuffs Michael Turner to get 2nd-and-long. The Falcons spread the field but Brown, maybe getting there a little early, breaks up a slant to Roddy White. The 4-man rush does not get there at all on 3rd down, though, and Matt Ryan hits White across midfield for about 16. Jacquizz Rodgers gets stuffed on 1st down, but that doesn't prevent the 49ers from biting hideously on play-action on 2nd-down, and Julio Jones streaks past Dashon Goldson for a 46-yard TD. That quickly, it's Atlanta 7, San Francisco 0, and so much for a good gambling weekend, though San Fran's sure making the over look good again.

That choice to defer sure worked out GREAT, btw, Harbaugh.

Everyone wondering how Colin Kaepernick will do when he can't hear himself think is feeling pretty darn smart right about now. And wow, this is an inspired offensive game plan for the ages: a one-yard screen to Michael Crabtree followed by Frank Gore running straight into the pile for nothing. Thomas DeCoud breaks up a pass over the middle for Vernon Davis, dances like a spastic ass, and 49ers fans have to be feeling GREAT with how this game is starting.

Just checked, and yes, Erin Andrews' pants are trending worldwide.

Ryan looks off a screen to Rodgers and hits Julio for 8 more. Is San Francisco even interested in covering him today? Turner gets 3 and the first at the 29. 4-man rush collapses the pocket on Ryan but he still finds Julio for 7. Quick slant to Tony Gonzalez for 4 and another first. 49ers, you do NOT want to fall behind 14-0 here. White gets 10 on a pass in the flat with the 49ers covering softer than than a baby's butt, with a pass rush to match. Bowman, apparently the only 49er defender with a pulse, drills Turner at a midfield to make it 2nd-10. Brown defends a sideline pass to Julio, who takes out a security guard but it's still 3rd-and-10. The game has to be stopped briefly to take care of the guard.

Huge play by Jones AGAIN, beating Goldson in zone coverage on a deep dig for 27. Goldson was an inch from picking that off. Julio already has 100 yards. Rodgers gets buried by Willis, and Atlanta might as well stop trying to run, which they can't do at all, and just pass every play, which the 49ers can't stop at all. Ryan hits Gonzalez inside the 20; 3rd-and-4. 49ers steadfastly refuse to blitz but Bowman makes a clutch deflection of a pass for Rodgers that would have been a TD. Matt Bryant from 36 to extend the lead. Falcons 10, 49ers 0

Seahawks fans are all laughing at the slow start the 49ers are off to, as 49ers fans thank God the ground can't cause a fumble on LaMichael James' kickoff return. The Falcons rush TWO on first down and Kaepernick fires one at DT Corey Peters dropping back in coverage anyway. Incomplete. Joe Staley and Alex Boone clear a lane to get Gore 6. Play of the game right now for SF, with 3:00 left in the 1st quarter. Peters whips Iupati off the snap, steamrolls over Kaepernick, and the Falcons have the Super Bowl in their grasp right now. Way to show up, 49ers.

Poor punt by Andy Lee in a freaking dome starts Atlanta at their 43. And now the 49ers can't stop the run, either, as Peter Konz drives Ray McDonald into next week and Tyson Clabo ties up Bowman to get Turner an easy 10. Play-action to White for 23 to the SF20. The 49ers have put almost no rush on Ryan and have no clue how to even slow down the Falcon passing game. Didn't this same team whip Aaron Rodgers' ass last week? What a difference an offensive line makes. Absent another colossal choke - which is ALWAYS a strong possibility with them - Atlanta's on their way to New Orleans.

SECOND QUARTER
After one quarter, the 49ers have been outgained 182 to minus-2. Make that 202 to minus-2, and 17-0 in points, as Ryan hits Julio in the back of the end zone for a TD with a perfect throw, and despite good coverage by Brown, a perfect catch by Jones and perfect footwork to stay in bounds. 17-0 Atlanta

POSTGAME SHOW
Just kidding.



Just like the Seahawks last week... it's like these idiot OCs want to prove they can beat the Atlanta D without having to resort to having their QBs run the ball. Get Kaepernick on the move! Open the field up! You know he's going to have to pass 60 times now.

Gore slices up the middle for 9, with Anthony Davis tying Cliff Matthews in knots. Gore barely gets across the 30 for the first. On 2nd-7, Kaepernick audibles to a 4th-straight handoff to Gore, who cuts back inside John Abraham's overpursuit for another first down. Matthews injured on the play. With Boone clearly false-starting, Kaepernick hits Randy Moss on the sideline for 8. Screen to Crabtree gets another first down at the ATL45. Same thing to the other side of the field, almost a big play but Dunta Robinson grabs Crabtree's ankle and holds him to 3. Falcons are all over a screen to James but he makes a late move to gain 5. 3rd-and-2. Atlanta's fans make a big play, as their overwhelming crowd noise creates a delay-of-game. Kaepernick was running on that play, finally. The 49ers overcome the penalty, though, with the rarely-heard-from Vernon Davis grabbing a cross, breaking a DeCoud tackle and getting all the way down to the 15. Believe that's 32 yards. Crabtree just misses staying in bounds on an end zone fade pass. But a read option works like a charm the next play. Kaepernick hands to James, but steps up to freeze Kroy Biermann on the edge, letting James whiz by him and LB Stephen Nicholas for a 15-yard TD. Falcons 17, 49ers 7.

Of course, right after I say the 49ers are going to have to pass 60 times, they get back into it with their ground game.

49ers D obviously badly needs a stop here. Aldon Smith grabs Ryan as he throws but it's still complete to White for 14. Ryan has already thrown to 196 yards. Turner drags the Niners D like little kids on his back for 6. Ryan misses Rodgers in the flat, well-covered by Bowman. Crucial play for SF here. 3rd-and-4. A very rare blitz, bringing both Willis and Bowman, coaxes a quick throw in the flat to Rodgers, and like many things, it's too high for him.

I'd argue it's now the Falcons who are in need of a big stop. 49ers at their 18. A fake option gets Davis wide open downfield for 26, but Mike Iupati, who has been pretty bad so far today, holds to kill it. James gets a couple off tackle before running into Sean Weatherspoon. You know, if it is Falcons-Patriots in SB47, I'll bet there is at least one instance where the Falcons make a play but the Patriots run the next two while the goof who made the play is celebrating his routine tackle. Wow, Kaepernick, again faking the option, throws a spear to Davis for a first down at the 31. Huge play on 2nd-and-16. Like Seattle last week, the 49ers keep faking the option and NOT RUNNING IT. No gain for Gore up the middle. Kaepernick gets all day in the pocket on 2nd-10 and scrambles for 23 across midfield. Nicholas yanks Garrett Celek to the ground after a Gore run to move SF inside the ATL30. What was that weird sound I just heard? Sounded like someone choking. Actually, it sounded like a whole lot of people choking. Atlanta barely even bothers with Davis coming out into the flat, and he rolls downfield for a 25-yard completion inside the 5. I don't blame the Falcons for glossing over Vernon Davis in this week's game prep. I think he's already matched his fantasy total for the regular season today. 2:00 warning.

Lesson not learned by the Falcons. Lined up inside Delanie Walker, Davis is ignored by both Nicholas and a barely-even-jogging Will Moore for a wide-open 4-yard TD pass in the flat. That Falcon red is indeed starting to look a little purplish from here. Are you OK? Can you speak? Falcons 17, 49ers 14

Falcons start at their 20, 1:55 left. With McDonald bearing down on him, Ryan beats White in front of soft zone for 14. Two plays later, he beats a rare blitz and hits Gonzalez for 16 across midfield. Illegal contact by Chris Culliver on White for 5 more. With Bowman blitzing, another 14 to White on the sideline at the SF31. The Niners aren't strictly in prevent here, but they're not preventing anything, either. 15 more to Jones at the 16, and Atlanta hasn't even had to use a timeout. It's the 49ers calling timeout with 0:37 left!

Ryan has to be on pace for a 500-yard game by now. Yes, he is. He already has more yards, 255, than he did last week. 5 to Gonzalez at the 11, then, slant at the goal line for a TD. Emphatic answer there by the Falcons, who are breathing a little again. Falcons 24, 49ers 14

0:25 left. 49ers run out the half despite I believe having all three timeouts. Yet no criticism for Jim Harbaugh like John Fox got last week in Denver. Allow RamView, then. That was plenty of time to try to get within range for a long field goal.

Photo - ESPN.com


HALFTIME SHOW 
Hell, yeah, Erin's pants are making the halftime show. The 49ers are similarly going to have to tighten up their pass coverage in the 2nd half. They've played it very low-risk, and it has paid off not a bit. They have nothing to lose by uncorking some heavy blitzing at Ryan in the 2nd half and going tight on the Falcon receivers. Hey, it's not like what they're doing now, candy zone coverage with little blitzing, is working. The Falcon offensive line has had a strong first half and a strong postseason, and did pretty well against SF's late first-half blitzing. They'll have to stay ready for it. I do not recommend Atlanta take much of the air out of the ball, though, not until SF proves they can come even close to stopping them. Hasn't been in evidence yet.



 
The Falcon defense, though, has been completely unready for Vernon Davis, though probably because they've devoted extra attention to Crabtree. They should probably change their focus. And it's ridiculous that for the second straight week, a read-option offense has REFUSED to run the QB against the Falcons. It's there. Take it, for crying out loud.

THIRD QUARTER
Michael Strahan put it well at halftime: the Falcons have to play to win in the 2nd half; they can't play not to lose. They are kicking off to start the half, though. Robert James stuffs the return, wait a minute, here's Erin's pants again. OK, where was I? 49ers at their 18, Randy Moss wide open on a comeback route at the 33, gets to the 39. 49er-soft coverage by the Falcons there. Gore follows Boone on the pull for 6. They've run that play twice and it's worked well both times. Maybe run it more? Gore right up the middle for another 10 to the ATL 45. Big block again by Boone, with Kaepernick again faking the option. Spoon holds Gore to 2 off left tackle. Kaepernick drills Walker for 22 over the middle, down to the 21, beating Spoon. Robinson was injured on the tackle.

Moss is now wide open at the 5, as the Falcons have apparently adopted SF's first-half "strategy" to never cover a receiver ever. And Gore walks in from there, following strong blocks off the right side by Anthony Davis and Bruce Miller. Magnificent drive for Kaepernick out of halftime. Falcons 24, 49ers 21

The San Francisco 49ers welcome back Randy Moss to the game plan.

The 49er 4-man rush continues to put on no pressure at all, giving Ryan 5 seconds to hit Gonzalez at the 37. Ryan has to waste a timeout two plays later due to formation issues. Ryan beats a zone blitz with a 14-yard pass to Gonzalez across midfield. Aikman is correct, but half a quarter late, in saying the 49ers need to bring more pressure. Just as I say that, the first 49ers sack, by NT Isaac Sopoaga, who gets a coverage sack by stopping Ryan attempting to scramble.

And, BIG PLAY ALERT: the very minute the 49ers get any pressure on Ryan at all, he throws an interception. Well, because Roddy White slipped and Chris Culliver jumped the route. SF ball all the same.

What's that coughing noise? Are you all right? Can you take a breath?

Hack, hack, as Davis torches Nicholas, who is having a TERRIBLE game, for 30+ on a corner route down to the ATL25, as the Falcons' strategy continues to be not covering receivers. There wasn't a safety within 20 yards. After waiting 37+ minutes for a designed QB run, I finally get one, and Kaepernick loses two. Thanks for making me look so smart, there. The surprisingly-physical James bangs out 7 on a toss-sweep left, though. 3rd-5. James empties the backfield, the Falcons still only rush three, and Moore nearly jumps a quick pass to somebody named Chad Hall to break up the pass.

A big play, as David Akers amazingly BLOWS a 38-yard chip shot, striking the top of the left upright. Harbaugh must feel smart for cutting Billy Cundiff earlier in the week, huh? In fact, that's the roster spot Chad Hall filled. Kicker tryouts in San Francisco Monday!

Rodgers cuts back right for a nice 7-yard run to the 35. Jason Snelling's first carry gets a big 12 as a couple of 49ers dive and miss, as we learn for the first time that Turner is down with an ankle injury. Great timely reporting there, Fox. Where are Erin's pants when we need them?

Where is the 49er run defense when they need it? More terrible tackling as Rodgers weaves for 9 off left tackle across midfield. Carlos Rogers blankets White on a 1st-down end zone bomb. Sopoaga and Donte Whitner then spin Snelling down for no gain. 3rd-10 at the SF42; critical play here. Julio gets away with a borderline push-off and beats Tarell Brown for 13. Yeah, stick with that pudding-soft coverage, 49ers; you're doing so well with it.

The 49ers put some pudding pop in the next play, though, blitzing heavy and getting Ryan to take his eye off the shotgun snap he bungles away for a fumble. Cough. Cough. Are you OK over there? 49ers at their 37, 1:00 left in the 3rd.

Aldon Smith recovered the fumble by Ryan. Kaepernick misses Walker down the seam, leaving 3rd-7 at 0:10 of the 3rd. He misses Vernon Davis on 3rd down, but Matthews didn't miss hitting him in the face mask on the rush for a CRUCIAL 15-yard penalty. And I have no idea why Aikman thinks that's barely a penalty. Matthews nearly ripped Kaepernick's face mask off. Gore up the middle for 2 to end the quarter.

The NFL has put on yet another excellent playoff game today.

FOURTH QUARTER
2nd-8 at the ATL43. Off an option fake to Gore, Crabtree makes an impressive catch of a laser from Kaepernick and works all the way down to the 10. Robert McClain was like a fingernail from tipping that pass away, but the 49ers have 1st-and-goal instead. Gore up the middle for 5 between Boone and Anthony Davis.

Possible big play alert, as Crabtree can't field a slant cleanly and has it ripped out by Robinson at the goal line. That will obviously be reviewed, but I think it will stand. Shame for Crabtree and the Niners; excellent clutch play by Robinson. Also, fine call by the referees, and Nicholas gets some redemption by fighting and winning the recovery.

Hey, did they even review it? Atlanta's taking off from their 1. The snap barely gets to Ryan and his attempted slant is swatted down by Bowman. Up-handoff to fullback Mike Cox (!) for 4. Must-stop here for SF. Ryan gets an eternity to throw, and finds Gonzalez on an out route, but Carlos Rogers holds him short; Rogers' second big play of the half. Ted Ginn gets all the way inside the ATL40 with the punt return.

Gore runs through Akeem Dent for 7 down to the 31. Dent stops him a foot short on 2nd down. I'll express some doubt here that the 49ers are in Akers' FG range. They may have to get inside the 10 for that. Anthony Dixon plows off right tackle for 5 with his first carry, with Iupati and Vernon Davis getting blocks. James sweeps left for 8, running through Jonathan Babineaux's arm tackle. Crabtree takes a quick screen inside the 10, not played very well by Assante Samuel, but Kaepernick took advantage of Atlanta laying way off. And Gore, on first-and-goal, with the Falcon secondary laying eight yards off of everyone, runs for an easy TD off a fantastic block by Anthony Davis and a strong one by Bruce Miller. Hey, you're looking a little blue over there, are you all right? 49ers 28, Falcons 24

Now we'll get to see if Captain Comeback Ryan can make Gore look stupid for doing the premature Dirty Bird to mock the Atlanta fans after his TD. That is extremely, extremely bad juju, Frank, and you should know that. In fact, that was stupid. But thanks for cracking the over, which is now 9-0 this postseason and is probably the only fictional money I'll fictionally make off this game.

Programming note with 8:24 left: I'm probably going to have to join the AFC game in progress. I tried to have it both ways last week and my DVR ate half the shows I wanted to save. And the postgame show for this game probably won't be up for this game right away.

Kaepernick picks up a cup of Gatorade on the bench, looks on it like somebody left an eyeball in it... and puts it back on the table?

Aikman gives a nice demonstration of how the Falcons' attempts to contain Kaepernick is hurting the rest of their run defense.

Ryan back-pedals and hits White for 9. Rogers gets the first down with a short run. Julio is wide open for a first down bomb, but Goldson closes to break up the pass affected by Aldon Smith's rare pressure today. Quick out to Douglas for 6, uncomfortably close to a pick. Ryan overthrew that. 3rd-4, critical play now for Atlanta. Bowman blitzes and hits Ryan as he throws, but he hits Julio on the sideline in front of Culliver for 5. Man, other than Carlos Rogers, the 49er secondary has been rotten today. Ahmad Brooks flushes Ryan for 3. 5:30 to play. Strong 4-man rush, but Ryan buys extra time well and hits Julio at midfield for 5. 3rd-2. Ryan continuing to flirt with the INT. Bizarre play next, but it's going to count. Harry Douglas breaks wide open downfield after yanking Rogers down by his collar, but stumbles and falls while catching the ball at the SF28. Should have been a penalty; should have been a TD; ends up somewhere in the middle.

And this play, which the 49ers challenge, shouldn't even count, and it's not even the Bert Emmanuel rule. It clearly hits the ground and is moving without Douglas ever controlling it. Not that I'm remotely a 49er fan, but he didn't deserve the catch anyway. If Terry MacAulay agrees, Atlanta's facing 4th-and-2.

WHAT? IT'S A CATCH? MacAulay and Fox's Mike Pereira agree that Douglas didn't lose possession, which is ludicrous. He lost possession far more than Calvin Johnson did that time in Chicago. Douglas knocks it out of his left hand with his right hand and It. Hits. The. Ground! How in the world is that possession?

The National Football League f*cking needs to f*cking clear up this f*cking rule.

Atlanta still has work to do, though, at the SF28. Rodgers delightfully drags the much larger McDonald for 9. Hitch to Douglas for a first down at the 16. Willis stuffs Jacquizz on first down at the 2:00 warning. It's here already? Wow.

Ryan barely avoids a sack by Brooks and hits Snelling over the middle at the 10. Ryan appears to have been injured on the play. He taps his left shoulder and is kind of limping around. Ryan rolls right on 3rd-and-4, but there's Brooks again, elevating to bat down the pass. Season on the line now for Atlanta.

Play action to Rodgers, but Bowman flashes his hand in to break up a pass to Roddy White. That contact's fine; it's within five yards and the ball isn't in the air yet. (I said that before Aikman did, btw.) Fine play by Bowman, who has been the 49ers' best defensive player all day, no offense to Brooks' late surge.

And the Falcons have choked in the playoffs yet again!

Gore up the middle as Atlanta uses their second timeout at 1:04. That, though, is followed by an actual delay of game on San Francisco. I know it's loud there, but how the f*ck do you do that? Vance Walker drops Gore at the 5, and Atlanta uses their last TO with 1:00 left.

Kaepernick has to be keeping it here. No, it's a handoff to Gore, who plows off left tackle for 10. There will be about 13 seconds left when Andy Lee punts, and on 4th-and-5, it's going to be hard for Atlanta to sell out for the block. Lee gets it off, and Douglas gets swallowed up at the ATL 43.

Six seconds left for Ryan, but if anybody's got the receivers to pull a Hail Mary off... but Ryan's continuing to cradle his left arm like something's broken on that side. And, WTF? Just a deep slant to Julio Jones, and it's over the middle where the clock can't stop? Was he supposed to hook-and-trailer it and couldn't? In any event, the 49ers are on top of Julio for the first time all day and tackle him around the SF40 to end the game.

Rams fans have been guaranteed a Super Bowl we're going to hate. What's going to suck less, 49ers-Patriots, or the Freaking Harbaugh Bowl? Sigh.

Final score: 49ers 28, Falcons 24

 
POSTGAME SHOW
Player of the Game award is Gore's, for 90 yards and 2 TDs, and with Atlanta effectively bottling Kaepernick up as a rushing weapon, his ability to keep the 49er offense going on the ground was critical. Half that production would have won me a FFL championship back in week 16, btw; thanks a lot, Frank.



If this were a hockey game, I'd also award a star to Bowman and one to right tackle Anthony Davis, who I thought had an excellent game blocking.

Gambling-wise, the 49ers failed to cover by a freaking half-point, so I have to settle for the straight-up and the over. That makes me 6-3 at everything this postseason: SU, ATS, and O/U.

I think the 49ers are the Patriots' nightmare opponent, despite New England's furious comeback in Foxborough that fell short. The only NFC West team the Patriots played well this season were the Rams in European vacation mode. San Francisco's too physical for them, though there will be something to be said for New England's vast experience advantage in the Big Game. The hypothetical Harbaugh Bowl is a coin flip to me. Baltimore has not been a strong run defense, and I suspect that's their fatal flaw when they have to make adjustments to contain Kaepernick. The 49ers may not be favored to win Super Bowl XLVII, but I'm leaning their way against either AFC opponent.

Atlanta's going to have to improve their pass rush in the offseason if they're going to get over the hump to the Super Bowl. There's nobody in the middle of that line to scare you. They got nothing in the playoffs with John Abraham hurt, and he's old anyway. Time to get that part of the game shored up.

-$-




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