Sunday, January 13, 2013

AFC Divisional Playoff: New England 41, Houston 28

The non-brilliant scheduling folks at NFL headquarters save the least compelling matchup of the weekend for last, a re-match of a game New England won 42-14 in the regular season. I didn't see anything from Houston last week to make me think that's going to change much. The Patriots have done weirder things at this stage of the playoffs, though.

Nantz and Simms to call it for CBS.

FIRST QUARTER
So much for a repeat of the regular season. Danieal Manning takes the opening kickoff 5 yards deep, gets a perfect seam to hit around the 20, with James Casey making a couple of key blocks, loses Stephen Gostkowski, and appears to be gone, but loses more steam than Lance Kendricks after he gets to about the Patriot 25, and Devin McCourty tracks him down from behind. Still a 93-yard return, to the NE12. Way for those awesomely-coached Patriots to start the game, huh?

After Arian Foster gains 3, Casey totally drops a TD pass at the goal line. On 3rd down, Matt Schaub's pass for Andre Johnson wide open in the back of the end zone is terrible. High and out the back of the end zone. WTF, Schaub? Texans are choking already. Texans 3, Patriots 0

McCourty saved the Patriots 4 points.

J.J. Watt stuffs a handoff to Danny Woodhead at the 19. Tom Brady hits Wes Welker for 8. No-huddling, of course, Brady fires a poor sideline pass incomplete for former Ram Brandon Lloyd. Watt put on late pressure, and Houston can celebrate an opening 3-and-out.

Owen Daniels open over the middle for 10. Andre Johnson wheels around Aqib Talib for 10 more. (Don't make his mother mad.) Way-too-fancy screen to Foster still gains 13 after Steve Gregory misses a tackle. New England finally slows them down by stuffing a Foster run at midfield. Johnson doesn't get turned for an incomplete sideline out, complaining that Talib is holding him. 3rd-10. Schaub settles for a dumpoff to Daniels with a Patriot blitz coming, and it gains only 5. Donnie Jones time! He kills it at the 11; if he were still a Ram, he would have "pinned" the Patriots at the 25 there.

4 to Aaron Hernandez on a drag out of the slot. They connect for 7 more as Hernandez runs through a Manning tackle. Connor Barwin stuffs Shane Vereen for a loss. Brady goes deep up the sideline for Rob Gronkowski with a blitz coming but Gronk can't keep it in bounds. Welker withstands a huge hit from Kareem Jackson to get the first down on an out route. Watt, though, has little trouble beating Sebastian Vollmer on first down to sack Brady. Brooks Reed got there pretty easily, too. 2nd-19, but the Patriots get 11 back on a smoke route to Welker. Texans bring the house on 3rd-8, and Brady finds Welker open over the middle, but he DROPS it. Keyshawn Martin returns the punt to the 20.

Gronkowski left the game after the only throw to him. Re-injured his foot. Woodhead is also down.

Back-shoulder throw to Johnson for 14. Foster gains a couple after cutting back and avoiding Rob Ninkovich. Talib hits Johnson well early on a quick hitch but will get credit for a pass defense. 3rd-8. Foster motions into the slot and gets open over the middle on Jerrod Mayo, but drops the pass. Awful punt by Jones travels only 29 yards. Way to represent your ex-Rams brethren there.

Not the game I was expecting at all so far; early on, you'd have to say it's being played at the most likely Houston could win at.

Stevan Ridley off right tackle for 15 off a big pull block by Nate Solder.  Bradie James stuffs Ridley for a loss at midfield, but Ridley gets it back by circling out of midfield and taking a dumpoff 13 yards to the HOU40. Good matchup for New England, with Vereen split right across from James, and they take advantage. He runs a short hitch, makes the catch, wheels by James and over Manning for a 25-yard gain. Hernandez runs what I'd have to call a down-and-in and dives down inside the 1. The Patriots hustle the play on 1st-and-goal, and Vereen scores easily around left end. Patriots 7, Texans 3

Play-action to Foster, and Johnson makes a full-extension grab for 16. He's off to a red-hot start. But Foster gets nowhere around right end, with Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork shutting down the edge. Swing pass to Foster gets Houston another first down as the first quarter ends.

SECOND QUARTER
Texans at their 47. Wilfork blows up another Foster run, up the middle this time. He then nearly gets to Schaub on 2nd down as Matt overthrows everybody. On 3rd-and-10, Ninkovich flushes Schaub, and he can't hit Daniels at the sideline. Jones forces a Welker fair catch at the 15.

Brady misses Welker open on the sideline on 2nd-and-8 but hits him for about 30 on a little slant on 3rd down, beating Glover Quin, with Hernandez running a clearout. Vereen takes off for another 22 down to the HOU30, with Watt and Shiloh Keo missing tackles. Big block at the point of attack by, hoo boy, Michael Hoomanawanui. Wish he hadn't waited to become a Patriot before he learned how to block. Vereen fires up the middle for 8 more, and jukes Barwin in the backfield on a pitch left and dives down to the 16 for another first down. Brady one-hops a pass to Lloyd, who loses 15 by throwing the ball at the official after the play. What the hell is he thinking there? Bubble screen to Vereen gets most of the penalty yardage back, but on 3rd-13, Brady overthrows Hernandez behind double-coverage in the end zone. Gostkowski is perfect from 37 to extend the lead. Patriots 10, Texans 3

Seeing the Patriot cheerleaders in short shorts with temperatures in the mid-40s, I find myself wondering what kind of heavy coat Erin Andrews is going to wear next week while she's covering the sidelines indoors at the NFC Championship.

Johnson beats Talib again with a curl for 14. Foster gets something going for the first time tonight, bouncing outside left for 7 off of Duane Brown's block. Holding on Derek Newton sends the Texans backwards the next play, though. No matter; Schaub hits Devier Posey on a deep post for 24. 1st down at the NE46. Gregory knocks down an out pass for Daniels. Dont'a Hightower, he of the Klingon-spelled first name, blows up a screen to Posey for a loss. 3rd-12, the Patriot blitz again forces Schaub to dump off, and Gregory holds Garrett Graham well short.

There have been more punts in this game already than in all three other games this weekend, I think. Wasn't really expecting this one to be this boring. New England has to use a timeout with not enough men on the field. Welker fools Houston's punt coverage into letting the ball roll into the end zone.

Watt opens up this drive by stuffing Ridley for a loss, and Kareem Jackson breaks up a quick hitter for Welker. But on 3rd-11, Welker beats Brandon Harris for a first down. Houston's been blitzing pretty heavy here. 7 to Lloyd on the sideline, then Ridley up the middle for 5. 1st down at the 40. Brady bombs for Welker down the sideline, even though Jackson's blanketing him. Jackson slips just as the ball arrives, though, and Welker's got it for 47. Yeah, I thought a pushoff had to be involved there. Nice non-call, Referee Looking Right At It. As they often do, the Patriots cash in on having the referees in their pockets with a screen to Vereen, left all alone, for an 8-yard TD. Patriots 17, Texans 3

Manning gets the edge on the kick return this time, gets out to the 39, and is horse-collared by Gostkowski. Houston will start across midfield with 3:30 to go. Gostkowski appears to have injured himself on the illegal tackle. Possibly his back? A fake end-around opens up the field for a 22-yard run by Foster. Add a strong block by Newton. Foster blasts off the right side for another 18, down to the 8. Center Ben Jones with the key block that time, though Foster showed he does not need a lot of room. Houston has to have a TD here. Foster gets stopped for 2 at the 2:00 warning. He worms down to the 1, where it will be 3rd-and-goal. He appears to power in behind Wade Smith for the TD, but it'll be reviewed.

Score it, though now I'm not so sure Foster got it across the line. He got sat down inside the 1. Patriots 17, Texans 10

Let's see what Brady can do with the last 1:15. Handoff to Vereen up the middle? New England not in the no-huddle for the first time today? Timeout now by Belichick on 3rd-and-6? Can't say I agree with Belichick's confusing approach here. Watt splits a double-team and hits Brady as he throws for an incomplete at 0:27. Phil Simms will gush how brilliant Belichick was to burn those 45 seconds off the clock, though.

Zoltan the Not-Magnificent Mesko flubs a 32-yard punt with Keo flying at him and nearly running into him. Schaub hits Casey at the 49 with 0:18 left. Timeout. First down to Daniels at the NE42, and another timeout. 0:11 to go. Schaub either way overthrows Daniels, or way underthrows the guy in row A. I have no idea where that was supposed to go. :07 left. Schaub hits Daniels at the 37, and referee Tony Corrente does not let the Patriots pull the Super Bowl XXXVI time-keeping stunt, granting Houston's last timeout and putting :02 back on the clock. Shayne Graham will get a crack from 55.

And he strokes it.

Patriots 17, Texans 13 at halftime

HALFTIME SHOW
The way neither team's really pressuring the passer so far, we could be in for a lot of passing in the 2nd half. I'd like to see Houston run some blitzes away from Watt's side since he's drawing so many double-teams. On offense, I think New England could stand to get Hernandez involved more. Welker's winning his one-on-one battles, but Brady's looking for him a ton, as usual; a little more diversity would open the field up for everybody.


Houston's going to be tempted to get all pass-wacky after their success late in the half, but they need to make sure to keep getting the ball to Foster. The Patriots really aren't covering anybody, though. Johnson's been beating Talib with regularity, and the tight ends are open any time Schaub looks for one. I think we'll see Belichick blitz more; he got Schaub panicky any time a blitzer even got close in the first half. All of which should make play-action deadly, and Foster deadly out of the backfield.

Houston's got to be happy they're close at halftime, but they need to slow this game down. Looks great for the over yet again, but the game's really being played at New England's pace. Use good balance, dictate your tempo, and you may yet pull off the biggest upset of the playoffs.

THIRD QUARTER
During the halftime show, Dan Marino went for the mis-pronounced name of the weekend by calling a TD by "Shane Ravine", but the awful Donovan McNabb already locked that award down Friday night on Playbook, somehow managing to mangle Breno Giacomini's last name into "MacGuffie". Because that's what he is able to do.

Jackie Slater's kid Matthew returns a short kick across the 30. Brady overthrows Lloyd badly to start the half. Welker wins again out of the slot for 7, though, and Hernandez gets 4 on a quick dig. Screen to Welker away from a blitz for 6 gets New England out to midfield. Who was the unusually perceptive analyst who said Brady needed to go to Hernandez more at halftime? He plows Quin to the ground in the slot to get wide open and prances all the way down to the 12, turning a short pass into a 40-yard gain. Ridley bumps off RT inside the 10, and he's into the end zone with ease the next play from the 8. Mauling block by Logan Mankins to open the hole for Ridley. Patriots 24, Texans 13

Houston ain't going to beat the Patriots by not rushing Brady and not covering anybody.

On 2nd-and-4, Casey loses the ball on a TE screen that never would have worked anyway but is bailed out by an amazingly-fast whistle. Belichick must not have paid the refs at halftime like he promised to. Schaub eludes blitz pressure on 3rd-and-5 but has to throw it away. Where's Andre Johnson been? Not great timing at all for Houston to three-and-out. I doubt they can let Brady score here and stay alive.

The Texan D gets a much needed 3-and-out after Jackson breaks up a drag to Welker on 2nd-and-5, and though Brady gets nearly 6 seconds to throw on 3rd down, no one ever comes open. Mesko the Magnificent nails the punt out of bounds at the 10.

Make it the 5 for Houston after a false start. But a swing pass to Foster along the goal line beats a blitz for 26. Wilfork nearly sacks Schaub on 2nd-7, then scrambling away, he loses it off his leg for a loss of 10. But there's Andre Johnson! making a tough low catch at midfield for a first down. A quick screen to Casey gets them another 1st at the NE40. Three plays later, though, a terrible play by Schaub, lobbing an pass right to Ninkovich for an INT. Patriots were fully expecting the TE pass there and fooled Schaub with a zone blitz.

Ridley gains 9 off blocks by Vollmer and Hoomanawanui out to the NE46. Slant to Hernandez for 13. 7 to Lloyd, then Ridley rumbles inside the 30 for 5. More strong blocking by Mankins, Hooman and Dan Connolly. When Houston can't get lined up on time the next play, Mankins really takes it to Watt and Solder bulls a LB into next week to blow open a big hole again for Ridley, who gains 23 down to the 5. And it's a postseason TD for Brandon Lloyd, who jukes Jonathan Joseph after catching a quick screen. Joseph was in the end zone when the ball was snapped. Patriots 31-13

Foster appears to come up short on a 3rd-and-1 run as the 3rd quarter runs out. Welcome to Trash Time.

FOURTH QUARTER
Houston goes for it on 4th down deep in their own end. TMQ would be proud. Foster gets undercut by Talib on a pitch left but manages to fall for the first down at the 24. Belichick challenges the spot, and there's not a bad case to say Foster didn't make it, but not enough for the overturn. Kevin Walter comes up just short on a slant, and Schaub fires wild on 4th down with another blitz in his face, as Belichick has indeed been bringing it here in the 2nd half.

Patriots take over at Houston's 33. They get Vereen isolated split left on Barrett Ruud, and Brady fires a perfect sideline bomb to him for a TD. Good night, Houston.

Gary Kubiak really botched things for the Texans at the end of their last position. He should have challenged the spot on the Walter play, as he probably actually had the 1st down, and why are you going deep on 4th-and-1?

I'm going to need an Atlanta win next weekend to avoid either of my two nightmare Super Bowls. 49ers-Patriots would be the two franchises I hate the most. 49ers-Ravens would be the freaking Harbaugh Bowl, and I dislike both of those guys.

Manning gets another huge lane on the kickoff return, and would have returned for a TD if not for an illegal intentional trip by Gostkowski, which was NOT CALLED even though it happened way out in the open where everyone could see it. It'll be a 67-yard return, and don't tell me John Harbaugh and Jacoby Jones aren't going to love this game tape. Then again, Harbaugh's boys didn't exactly slow Trindon Holliday down yesterday.

Texans at the NE37. Houston continues to show no big-play capacity and gets caught 4th-and-1 again, but Foster converts it. Posey botches what should have been an easy TD pass badly, but may actually have ended up catching it. He juggles it twice while diving at the goal line, then, as he falls and flips over in the end zone, it lands on his chest and he secures it while sliding out of bounds. My guess would be no, as it would take Emil Zapruder to figure out all the moving parts on this play.

Hooray for Zapruder! Stop motion shows Posey possessed it for the TD, and Corrente confirms it. Patriots 38, Texans 20

Brady fires an incompletion in traffic as Antonio Smith nearly sacks him. How about running it here, Belichick? No chance. 5 to Lloyd. 3rd-5, Hernandez gets another big gain after knocking over a Houston DB and gets a flag for it this time. That's not legal within 5 yards? It would be if the roles were reversed. A rare strong 4-man rush flushes Brady on 3rd-15 and he overthrows Lloyd over the middle by a mile. 64-yard punt by Mesko the Magnificent after a 20-yard roll to the HOU21.

Too much short passing, Houston. 3 to Johnson. 6 to Daniels. Walter hangs on for 5 and a first down and absorbs a shot to the head from Gregory. The penalty puts ouston across midfield. Foster leaks out for a 9-yard catch. Foster then loses 1 as Schaub dumps off to him to avoid a sack by Justin Francis. Like me, Simms is begging for Houston to make a big play instead of all these dinks. Daniels finally obliges, gaining 22 on a post down to the 16. Daniels again, down to the 5 on an out route. Foster down to the 2, then, with Foster wide open in the flat, Schaub throws through the back of the end zone. Houston gets it at the 1 after Francis jumps offside.

Posey went down in the end zone on the last play and had to be carted off. Nantz also reports that Gronkowski may have re-injured the arm that put him out for a good part of the regular season and may need more surgery. Alfonzo Dennard stops a quick screen to Johnson short to force another 4th down, but Foster splits left and makes the catch on a slant at the goal line for the TD. Coaches would normally wait, but Kubiak goes for two here, and Schaub rolls and hits Johnson near the right pylon for the conversion. Johnson hauls down the pass with a strong move with Talib hanging on his back. Patriots 38, Texans 28

That was a fine drive, if only it hadn't taken nearly five minutes. There's only 5:08 left. And oh, those Patriot special teams. They botch recovering the onside kick initially, but Ninkovich grabs it after it ricochets off a couple of Texans.

Two Ridley runs leave the Patriots 3rd-and-2 as Houston uses its first timeout, and Brady's pass is knocked down at the line, but Jackson hands them a first down by holding Welker. Houston uses the last of their timeouts after two more Ridley runs. 3rd-and-2 again, 4:02 left at the HOU26. Slant to Lloyd for 8. That first down lets Ridley bang it down to the 2:00 warning. Brady takes a knee to run the clock down to 1:18. Gostkowski comes in to knock one through from 38. Patriots 41-28

1:14 left, no timeouts for Houston. I would, however, advise Gostkowski to hit his squib kick better than Matt Bryant did. Up-man Casey ends up returning the pooch kick.

Schaub gets hit by Ninkovich on the 1st down throw, incomplete. 16 to Johnson over the middle. Another short pass, run by Casey for 15 down to the NE41. Incompletion stops the clock at 0:17. Over the middle and short AGAIN, to Daniels for 9, runs out the clock.

Final score: Patriots 41, Texans 28

POSTGAME SHOW
Heck, flip a coin for POTG, or roll a Dungeons and Dragons die; there's enough New England candidates. Me, I'm giving it to Logan Mankins. Made a lot of strong blocks, Brady was only sacked once, the Pats ran for over 5 yards a carry, and they really owned Houston on the line of scrimmage. Why not? Otherwise, it was going to Brady, and I can't stand him.

The over is now 8-0 this offseason. This game's a triple winner for RamView, with the Patriots to cover and the over, so I'm now at 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U. Nice!

Ravens-Patriots next week? I really have no idea. It could be the highest scoring game in NFL history as both teams return kickoffs for TDs back and forth. I'm betting the over all next weekend again to be sure. The Ravens proved they could beat the Broncos in their place, at their pace. Can they do it to New England, too? I wouldn't put it past them. The Ray Lewis factor seems to carry serious mojo. I am leaning 51-49% toward the Patriots, for now, but easily could be leaning toward the Harbaugh Bowl by the time Sunday rolls around. The Ravens' deep passing game will be a major test for a Patriot secondary that's been pretty bad. Oh, the hell with it. I'm going to roll with both Harbaugh brothers on the road. And good luck with that.

A Houston Texans helmet becomes the latest that Mike Wallace would look good in. They have no credible WR threat outside of Andre Johnson, and he's getting up there. They can also upgrade their run-stuffing at DT and should add at least one LB with speed who can cover a lot of ground. Also, Wade Phillips is going to have to figure out how to attack New England's fast-break offense, or the Texans are never going to make it to the next level.

Back to whatever Rams stuff that may pop up tomorrow. And hopefully much, much shorter posts.

-$-




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