Sunday, January 20, 2013

AFC Championship: Baltimore 28, New England 13

Photo - ESPN.com
Hey, I actually got here in time for the opening kickoff! The NFL really needs to put more than a half-hour between the conference championship games, though. I'm expecting another back-and-forth game here. The Ravens can play this game at the Patriots' pace, and Joe Flacco can definitely beat them deep, though Steve Tasker's reporting there may be a significant wind factor. And, needless to say, Ray Lewis is jacked to go.

FIRST QUARTER
The Ravens win the coin toss, and are ballsy, or stupid, enough to defer to Tom Brady to start the game. Believe that also lets John Harbaugh pick the wind, though, which CBS is really playing up as a factor. (Beats me; I just got here.) Tom Brady will be going into the wind from his 20. Stevan Ridley gets 4 on a counter run. Brady to Aaron Hernandez on a drag for 10. Ridley cuts back left this time for 3 more. Ridley left for 5 more, and he's sure getting a lot of cruising room right off the snap. New England has come out blowing the Ravens off the ball. Brady buys himself a lot of time to throw on 3rd-and-2, but just overthrows Wes Welker on a deep corner route. That's definitely a win for the Ravens.

The Patriots do a wacky shift on the punt - they had backup QB Ryan Mallett as the up man, and he shifted behind center - but the Ravens foil that with a timeout. If New England hadn't had a lineman report ridiculously late, they might have pulled it off; the Ravens were definitely confused. Straightforward punt after that is fair-caught by Jacoby Jones at the 13.

Ray Rice runs right for two, then up the middle for 4. That's not the attack I was expecting. Swing pass to Rice on 3rd down is dropped and would have been eaten alive by Rob Ninkovich anyway. That was an uninspiring start. Ball back to the Patriots at their 21 after TWO holds on the punt return.

Slant to ex-Ram Brandon Lloyd off play-action for 8. Ridley dives right for the first down. Little hitch to Hernandez in front of Bernard Pollard for another 8. Bizarre misdirection back-screen to Welker fails completely for an incompletion. Three-man rush gives Brady forever; with the Ravens jumping all the short routes, he hits Lloyd over the middle across midfield. Gains 14. Nothing open on 1st down as Brady throws it away to avoid a sack by Dannell Ellerbe. Hernandez, though, breaks a tackle behind the line and gains 11 on a screen. Blown tackle by Chykie Brown, I doubt his last. Terrell Suggs does not blow the tackle the next play, stuffing Ridley at the 36. But Brady gets all day the next snap and hits Lloyd at the 20 with one of his classic diving catches. The Patriots are moving too quickly here for me to edit anything down. Or finish the NFC post. End-around to Hernandez down to the 12, but Corey Graham stuffs Ridley for a loss on a 3rd-and-2 run blitz. Bill Belichick meekly sends Stephen Gostkowski in for the chippie. Patriots 3, Ravens 0

I'd say the Ravens need to get the ball moving next to prevent a start like the 49ers', but we saw how that went.

Illegal block on the kickoff backs Baltimore up at their 10, but the Patriots leave Vonta Leach wide open in the flat and he gains 17. Rice up the middle for 3, followed by a long ball well past Anquan Boldin, who's blanketed by Aqib Talib. Delayed but correct false start call by Bill Leavy makes it 3rd-13. A lineman clearly flinched, but they caught Rice. Solid 3rd-down pocket for Flacco, but he settles for a drag to Boldin, but Talib has man coverage on him and breaks it up. In the first game, that would have been a 20-yard gain for either team; hats off to the Patriots for daring to play tight on the receivers. Talib may have tweaked a hammy on the play, though.

Talib hobbles to the locker room as the Patriots start at their 33. Shane Vereen cuts back left for 7 with Ryan Wendell clearing some nice room for him. Haloti Ngata, though, defeats a double team and stuffs Vereen on 2nd down. Hernandez splits wide and catches a slant at the 48 for a first down. Big hit by Lewis, but give him 15 for a helmet-to-helmet hit. Another misdirection screen leaves Hernandez wide open in the right flat, but Brady overthrows him under pressure from Arthur Jones. Pollard closes quickly to hold Vereen to a 2-yard gain around right end. Lloyd just fails to come up with another diving catch on 3rd-and-8. As he did often in St. Louis, Lloyd slipped on his route or he probably gets the first down. Patriots punt again and Mesko the Magnificent pins the Ravens at the 8.

I'd sure like Jim Nantz not to be a yard off on every spot tonight, btw. Bernard Pierce in now for the Ravens, and he wends around left end and off a strong block by Matt Birk for 12. No, 11; thanks again, Nantz. Pierce gets 3 more, which sets up a nice play-action pass that Ed Dickson DROPS. Flacco goes deep for Dennis Pitta up the sideline on 3rd-7, and he's open by five yards, but Flacco just misses him long. Welker returns the punt almost 30 yards, out across his 45. Really lackluster start by Baltimore, but they've managed so far to keep the Patriots at bay.

Brady has to throw the ball away on first down and survive an idiotic attempt by Leavy to call grounding. What are you even thinking there, ref? The Ravens' answer to covering Hernandez continues to be "Nevermore," as he gains yet another 8. Carey Williams, though, bats away an attempted slant to Lloyd, with Paul Kruger nearly coming up with the long ricochet. New England has to settle with pinning the Ravens at the 10 with a punt again. The over, for once, is looking like a big fat loser tonight.

SECOND QUARTER
The break between quarters gave me a chance to finish the NFC recap. Leach is open in the flat again for 5, but Jerrod Mayo makes a nice strip to save the Patriots a couple of yards. No matter, as Pitta's wide open at the 20 on 3rd-and-short and runs out to the 33. Jim Caldwell patiently stays with the running game; Rice up the middle for 2. Rice then beats Brandon Spikes on a circle route for 9. Swing to Pierce gets another first as he gains 5 keeping his balance after contact. Almost a late hit as Pierce gains 4 off the right side. Alfonzo Dennard really blasted him right as the sideline as he was letting up. Lesson? Don't let up. Flacco just beats a hit from Vince Wilfork and hits Torrey Smith for the first time tonight, on a deep slant at the NE15. Rice up the middle for another 8, behind Bryant McKinnie's block. And he cuts back again and squirts down to the 2. Kelechi Osemele absolutely flattened a Patriot with a cut block. Can't express how much I hate the fade pass to Pitta on 1st-and-goal; it's incomplete. Rice breaks two tackles in the backfield, though, bouncing outside for a Baltimore TD. Ravens 7, Patriots 3

Patrick Chung was injured on the TD, so the Patriots are dealing with some injuries in their secondary. Ellerbe gets a personal foul for retaliating at a late shove by Wendell. We get to hear how the Rams were the most penalized team in the league this year. Um, Jeff Fisher? That would be something to FIX. Wendell continues to block well, leading Ridley up the middle across midfield for 7. With Brady audibling and clearly showing he's picked up on a blitz by Carey Williams, and calling "Ricky Ricky" (audibles with R's often mean to focus attention to the right), the Ravens do not counter-adjust, Williams blitzes anyway, and the throwback screen to Welker works for 24 yards down to the 16. Ed Reed's blown tackle probably added 15 yards to that play. Ridley up the middle for 8, behind Logan Mankins mauling Ray Lewis. This is often quick-screen territory, but Brady hits Hernandez on a slant at the 2. The way Baltimore has not covered the TE tonight, imagine what Brady'd be doing if he had Gronkowski. Ravens read pass all the way on 1st-and-goal, and Pollard knocks the pass down. Why didn't Brady switch to a run there? All the Ravens were standing up and would have been cake to knock off the LOS. Arthur Jones stuffs Ridley on 2nd-and-goal, but Welker is wide open on a simple quick out for an easy TD. Graham tried to signal to Chykie Brown to switch off, but he didn't. Patriots 10, Ravens 7

I'm already thinking about changing my Super Bowl pick if it's 49ers-Patriots. Does anybody really think in a game that's supposedly going to be refereed by the awful Jerome Boger, Belichick isn't going to get a call in his favor any time he needs one?

Field position continues to work against Baltimore as they can't get the kickoff across the 20 again. Pierce gets shut down behind the line on a sweep right, but gets 5 back on a sweep left. Getting extremely fancy doesn't help the Ravens on 3rd-5. They line Rice wide right outside of a trips bunch, but Rob Ninkovich just powers past the much-bigger McKinnie for the first sack of the night by either team.

And, oh, those Ravens special teams, as Welker gets about 15 on the punt return to stake the Patriots in Baltimore territory again. NE is completely dominating the field position battle.

Ridley behind Nate Solder for 5 as the 2:00 warning arrives. Brady has to scramble on 2nd down and has to slide after running up the umpire's back after a couple. Belichick's going to want some money back for that play. DANNY WOODHEAD is stopped short on a shotgun handoff; looks like Kruger grabbed him. 51-52 yard FG for Gostkowski would be into the wind, so NE goes for it, and gets it with ease on a direct snap to Woodhead, disguised masterfully by Brady, for 7. Solder sprung him with a pancake block. After two incompletes, the Ravens get the brilliant idea to zone-blitz on 3rd-and-10, and yes, Aaron Hernandez can beat Paul Kruger in coverage, you MORONS. 17 yards, to the 10 with 26 seconds left. Kruger flushes Brady for a couple, and when the Patriots can't get lined up quickly, they have to use their last TO and bring in the FG team. Simms is right that Belichick mismanaged that one. Harbaugh is also right that Brady would have gotten at least a yellow card with that slide if this were a soccer game. He was purposely trying to kick Ed Reed. Gostkowski with the chippie to end the half. Patriots 13-7

Photo - Patriots.com
HALFTIME SHOW 
The thing the Ravens need to do most of all in the second half is flip the field position battle. They've got to come after Brady harder early in drives and have got to toughen up against the run; quit letting N.E. string drives together. They've got to get a whole lot better result out of their kicking and coverage games. They're constantly starting drives inside their 20; the Patriots are constantly starting at midfield. Covering Aaron Hernandez sometime tonight would be a good idea, too.


You know whose name we haven't heard much tonight? Ray Lewis.

New England's offense is running with wonderful balance, and they're winning most of the battles up front; I don't see them needing to change a thing until Baltimore can show they can put on more pressure.

The Ravens need a lot more help from their passing game than they've been getting, too. I believe Smith and Boldin have combined for one catch, which is unthinkable. Flacco needs to be going downfield more. Use the tight ends and the backs more, too; Houston's gave New England fits last week. Harbaugh defiantly told Solomon Wilcots before halftime that he isn't worried about a thing for the second half. Baltimore fans better hope he's right.

THIRD QUARTER
Bill Cowher and Shannon Sharpe both all-but beg the Ravens to throw more, especially on first down, but Sharpe makes a solid point that reminds that the game's really not being played at the Patriots' pace.

Mediocre starting field position for the Ravens, their 25. It is their best of the game, though. Wilfork stuffs Rice for a yard. Flacco play-actions, but has to run away from an oncoming blitz and can't put enough on a bomb for Smith. Underthrew it. 3rd-and-9, here comes Anquan Boldin, leaping over Marquice Cole for 26 across midfield. Spikes and Mayo put the Ravens back on the other side of midfield by blitzing Rice for a loss. Dennard gets away with plenty of downfield contact to defend a sideline pass to Smith. Smith then turns in way too early on a 3rd-down pass and Flacco overthrows him by five yards. Punt inside the 10 does at least give Baltimore a chance to reverse field position.

Patriots are out of the hole quickly, with a quick hitch to Lloyd and an inside handoff to Ridley. 5 more to Hernandez, then Brady fires a laser to Welker up the seam at midfield. Add 15 more because Pollard went to Welker's head on the tackle. So much for bad field position! Brady barely misses Hernandez on an end zone bomb, then another inside handoff to Woodhead gets just 3. Ravens need a stop here, and Welker gives it to them, with a drop at the 25. Wind looks negligible at best, but Belichick again passes up a 52-yard FG attempt to punt, and the Ravens are back in their usual starting place now, their own 13.

Ha! Worthless Firefox just tried to eat my post, and failed. Suck it, Mozilla!

Dennard finally gets called for too much contact on a 15-yard DPI. Kyle Arrington breaks up a 2nd-straight pass for Tandon Doss. Then, the Ravens remember the TE, and Flacco hits Pitta right up the middle for 22. Bombs away for Smith, but well incomplete. Next, here comes that bubble screen to Rice, who fakes Steve Gregory to the ground with a nifty cut in the hole to gain 15. 5 more to Smith. Pierce breaks a couple of tackles on a draw for 8. End zone pass for Jacoby Jones is too long, but at least Baltimore is finally trying to push the ball down the field. Simms reports the wind is still "really gusty". The flags on the uprights were not even moving a minute ago when the Patriots passed up on a long FG attempt. Slant to Boldin down to the 10. The Ravens game plan welcomes back Anquan Boldin. Pitta is JACKED UP by Mayo at the 5-yard line but holds on, I have no idea how. Pitta bounces right back with a TD catch on 2nd-and-goal, beating Gregory on a pretty simple out move. Ravens 14, Patriots 13

Looks like Cowher, Sharpe and RamView all nailed the halftime adjustments for the Ravens on offense.

Well, there's no doubt of the wind factor when it blows the ball off the tee twice before the next kickoff. Devin McCourty returns it to the 25. Brady suddenly looks off now, throwing into the wind, one-hopping one to Lloyd on 2nd-2 and throwing a kamikaze duck toward Hernandez on 3rd-and-12 after a Solder hold moved them back. Jones brings the punt back to the 37, and right now, everything's coming up Ravens.

Dangerous comeback screen to Rice loses 4 as D'o'n't'a' Hightower slashes in and blows it up. Doesn't faze Baltimore at all, as Smith gets wide open on a post underneath the zone for 23. Offside puts the Ravens at the NE39. Inside handoff to Rice for 3. Flacco thows a deep ball behind Smith. CBS makes it sound like no QB in history has ever had to throw into a stiff breeze. Wind or not, Flacco's got to make better throws. Or, Pierce could break a Ninkovich tackle in the backfield on 3rd-2 and bounce outside for 8. Pierce bulls his way up the middle for 6 more. Flacco to Pitta at the 13, another first down. Play-action gets Boldin open on what I think was an arrow route at the 5. Inside handoff to Rice makes it first-and-goal at the 3 as the Harbaugh Bowl inches closer.

FOURTH QUARTER
Sweet play starts the quarter off right for Baltimore; play-action to Boldin on a slant, and he leaps over McCourty for the TD. Wonder what would happen in a game that Boldin shows up for before halftime. Ravens 21, Patriots 13.

Up seven, I've always thought it would be a good idea to try for 2. The risk seems worth the reward of taking a two-score lead. But I could be insane.


McCourty gets destroyed at the 16 on the kick return. The field position worm has turned. Ridley fights hard for 9, though, running through Pollard and Ray Lewis. Lewis and Suggs stuff him on 2nd down, but he gets a couple on 3rd down to move the sticks. Lloyd spins away from Chykie Brown to turn a quick hitch into 13. How is that name pronounced "Shockey," btw? Wrong time to wonder about that! Ridley gets hammered by a helmet-to-helmet blast by Pollard, losing the ball before he hits the ground at the 46 because he is probably unconscious.

Lordy, lordy, lordy, I forgot that head-to-head blast by Pollard was actually a LEGAL hit because Ridley was a runner, not the QB in the pocket, or a defenseless receiver. Inaccurate rant about Pollard's dangerous hit deleted. That's still something I wouldn't mind seeing the NFL clean up. Ridley's lucky to even be awake on the sideline.

And Bernard Karmell Pollard vexes Patriots Nation yet another time.

Ravens start at the NE47 with a chance to ice this one. I'm still a little disappointed not to hear Nantz or Simms have an opinion about Pollard's kill shot. Torrey Smith beats Arrington for 16 on a post; Pollard may have knocked the life out of the whole Patriots team. Flacco gets a wall of a pocket the next play and easily scrambles away for 14 more down to the NE17. Two plays later, Flacco beats a blitz and goes to Boldin, who just ran a go route out of the slot and went up over Cole for the TD. Harbaugh Bowl, here we come. Ravens 28, Patriots 13

Still 11 minutes left for Brady to pull something off. Pretty sideline catch by Lloyd at the 41. Vereen escapes a tackle after a short catch for 9. Welker gets blasted by Cary Williams after a 5-yard screen and gets up very, very slowly. Vereen comes clean out of the backfield for a completion down to the 25, but drops one in the flat two plays later to leave 3rd-and-4. 3rd-down pass for Welker at the sideline is behind him and incomplete. New England's season on the line here. Brady gets a long time in the pocket, rolls out, doesn't run for it when he could have, and half-asses a pass toward a well-covered Deion Branch in the end zone. It falls as flat as the rest of New England's game has here in the second half, and the Ravens take over.

Simms likes that Flacco stays in the shotgun here and the Ravens stay aggressive, but he takes a sack on 1st down, and run-first offense seems like a much better move to me. Throwing AGAIN, Flacco gets splattered by Spikes and throws it away a mile out of bounds. He wasn't out of the pocket; why wasn't that grounding? Doesn't matter much, as Ninkovich nearly sacks Flacco on 3rd down and he one-hops one to Boldin. GREAT decision to throw three times there, Harbaugh, SIMMS. Didn't take but a minute off the clock, didn't get Belichick to use any timeouts.

Like a minute after he praises Baltimore for coming out passing, Simms criticizes them for not running more. Just. Shut. Up.

That was the kind of clock mismanagement by Baltimore there that comes back to bite teams trying to protect leads. What say ye, Brady? How about a rope to Welker wide open down the seam for 38? And the Patriots are at the Baltimore 22. Welker turned Cary Williams inside out with a double move.

And, forget it. Brady gets his next pass tipped at the line by Pernell McPhee, and Ellerbe fields the pop-up at the 17 for Baltimore. 6:50 left, want to bet Harbaugh's running it now?

The Ravens have won this game tonight with textbook bend-but-don't-break defense.

Well, f*cking Firefox won the battle this time and ate about eight plays' worth of recap. Basically, Rice, Pierce and even Vonta Leach bang 4:30 off the clock before Belichick decides to start calling timeouts with 2:20 on the clock, while Tom Brady sits on the bench making a mad face. Timeout #2 with 2:15 left, Baltimore has 3rd-and-8 a little short of midfield. Spikes trips up Rice again with 2:11 left, so Baltimore ate up 4:39 and all three Patriot timeouts. THAT is how you protect a lead.

The punt by the Ravens barely travels 20 yards; the Patriots may have gotten a piece of it. Harbaugh, as well as I, want to know how a 10-yard out to 900-year-old Branch only took 3 seconds off the clock. Branch needs five seconds just to run that far. Ngata makes Brady pay for the free play by hitting him as he throws at the 2:00 warning. 2nd-10 at the NE40. Completions to Welker and Woodhead get them to the BAL33 at 1:40. Suggs beats Solder and hits Brady to force an incomplete. McPhee bats another pass to force 3rd-and-10. Hernandez goes through Pollard for a 1st down at the 22 at 1:13.

And that drive was full of sound and fury signifying nothing, as Cary Williams undercuts an end zone slant route by Lloyd and picks off Brady's underthrow to end the game. Adios, New England.

Final score: Ravens 28, Patriots 13

POSTGAME SHOW
Boldin had 5 catches for 60 yards and 2 TDs, all in the second half, Lewis rallied to finish with a surprising 14 tackles, and Pollard's hit on Ridley changed the game, but the lazy man's POTG here goes to the QB, Joe Flacco, who decisively outplayed Tom Brady with 3 TD passes and an 11-for-12 stretch where the Ravens rode away with the game.

Thanks to Brady sucking, though, the over lost for the first time this postseason, so I had to eat one there, but got the SU win and the cover, leaving me 7-3SU, 7-3ATS, 6-4O/U. No complaints here.

Early Super Bowl line is 49ers by 3.5, 48.5 for the over/under. One thing I would recommend for the game is that everybody bring their mouthpieces. This is going to be some old-fashioned football, not just because one of the QBs could be running the ball a lot, either. Old-fashioned typically means low-scoring, but I don't see either defense stopping the other team. The 49ers couldn't cover the Falcon WRs today to save their lives. If Boldin shows up before halftime for once, Flacco will light them up, and Rice's presence will make it hard for the 49ers to sell out against the pass or turn up blitzing heat on Flacco, which they were glacially slow to do to Ryan today. OTOH, Baltimore has not been an effective run-stopping team for a couple of years now, and Kaepernick's ability to run the option will either burn them to a crisp like Green Bay, or make Frank Gore an even more effective weapon like today. And Baltimore's lack of any clue against Aaron Hernandez may spell good things for Vernon Davis, even if they can take away Michael Crabtree, which wouldn't be a large surprise to me. The feel here is a high-scoring tossup. And Baltimore's special teams have played poorly, and David Akers probably won't be good for the 49ers beyond 30. If that. Ultimately, if the 49ers can whip up on Aaron Rodgers, they can slow down Joe Flacco. They'll pressure him into mistakes. Their running game is going to be more than the Ravens can handle, which will make life a little easier for Kaepernick when he has to throw. San Francisco and the over, please.

As for the Patriots, I think they need a more serious edge pass rush threat. Their best DB for the season was Talib, who arrived in November. They have to improve on that. Last, they're pretty old at WR, aren't they? Welker? Lloyd? Branch? Pretty clear need to get younger and faster there.

RamView doesn't live blog the Super Bowl; that is a day to go to a party, so go to one, or put one on, and enjoy the game in two Sundays. Meanwhile, I'll be tossing up lots of college all-star nonsense here, with a couple of games to recap from this weekend and Senior Bowl practices starting tomorrow.

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