Saturday, January 10, 2015

NFC Divisional Playoff: Seattle 31, Carolina 17

ESPN.com / Getty
Bad gambling advice for this game: It's hard to like both the 13-point spread and the under (40). I have difficulty at times seeing either team even score 13 points. I think the Star Lotuleilei injury is huge for Carolina, and I expect the 3-headed Seahawk running attack to eat them alive. Seattle can probably win this game without Russell Wilson throwing a pass. But 13 points just seems way too high in a game I'm expecting to be low-scoring. And why is Seattle favored by more over the Panthers than they were over the Rams week 17? The Panthers are clearly better than the Rams, aren't they? OK, I'll bite on another sucker bet. Panthers cover but that's about it. 24-13 Seattle. Place your bets accordingly.

Terry McAulay at flagman, and Kevin Burkhardt and John Lynch are the #2 team for Fox? Really?

FIRST QUARTER
Carolina won the toss and elected to receive, which may be their first mistake of the night. Jonathan Stewart takes a slow-developing screen for 7, gets the ball hacked out of his hands by K.J. Wright and ends up getting only 4 when the ball goes out of bounds. Stewart bounces past Tony McDaniel for another 4 on 2nd down. It is raining in Seattle, so for the 2nd straight week, we're on Cam Newton Wet Hands Watch. Muff. Is. Jer(r)icho on 3rd down as Cotchery lets a hot pass go through his hands and off his helmet. Should have kicked off, Riverboat Ron.

Good field position exchange for Seattle, who start at their 36 following the punt. Bubble screen to Doug F. Baldwin for 11 behind TEs Luke Willson and Cooper Helfet. An 8-yard pass to Willson allows Seattle fans to bellow LUUUKE for themselves. Marshawn Lynch only gets 1 off left tackle. On 3rd-and-1, Kawann Short makes a big play to trip Lynch up in the backfield before he can even get started. That was Aaron Donald-quick penetration. Seattle punts and flips field position, pinning Carolina at their 11.

Stewart gets 4 off a read option. Newton keeps the next one for another 4. Well, you'd think if one team would know how to defend that play, it's Seattle. On 3rd down, Carolina inexplicably leaves Cliff Avril completely unblocked. His rush forces Newton into clearly grounding the ball. He threw out of bounds, not across the line of scrimmage and wasn't remotely out of the pocket. No call by McAulay and crew.

Seattle was set up at their 45 after the punt but Jeremy Lane took his man down well out of bounds to cost them 15. Special teams buffoonery has slowed down divisional weekend but it hasn't stopped.

Luke Kuechly stops Lynch for 1, and so far, Carolina not missing Lotuleilei much at all. Wilson tried to throw off read option on 2nd down but blitz pressure got to him and he threw it away. False start, J.R. Sweezy. The offenses so far are as crisp as a bag of wet liver and the under is looking quite good. Seattle actually runs a we-give-up handoff to Lynch on 3rd down. Is it too early to guess this game will be scoreless going into overtime?

After last week's misadventures Brenton Bursin does his best to screw up another fair catch tonight by going to his knees. Great special teams coaching, there, Carolina. Panthers held anyway and get pushed back to their 13. I agree totally with Lynch that Carolina has to put somebody who knows what the hell he's doing back to return punts.

Newton options right for 3 straight out of the old college playbook. Seriously, do that many colleges even run option any more? I don't think we'll see much Monday night, for instance. Newton goes short to Kelvin Benjamin for 3, then goes deep for Philly Brown, who's covered by guess who, Richard Sherman. Sherman turns Newton's bad idea into a pretty routine INT, though it probably worked out as well as a punt would have for the Panthers.

Seattle at their 38. Robert Turbin drops a swing pass. Bubble screen to Lynch split wide is creative but blown up by Colin Jones and Kuechly, and do I hear the great 12th man BOOING its defending world champions and return #1 playoff seed? Talk about what have you done for me lately. Seattle goes 5-wide again on 3rd-12, Russell Wilson gets forever to throw and Jermaine F. Kearse breaks wide open downfield for 34. Kearse got behind Jones there. Wilson muffs the snap and has to fall on it for a loss. Wilson spaz-throws the 2nd-down pass into the ground. I think that was a failed pump-fake. Something the Rams rarely do in off-coverage... Bene Benwikere closes fast on Ricardo Lockette to stop him short on 3rd down. Not only that, Lockette gets a penalty for throwing the ball at Benwikere that puts Seattle out of FG position. The Seahawks pin Carolina at their 11 again and wish Ricardo Lockette the best in his future endeavors.

Stewart runs through O'Brien Schofield's hit in the backfield for 2. Another short out route to Benjamin for 4. That's his go-to route with pressure coming from his left and is eventually going to get jumped. Bruce Irvin collapses that side on 3rd down, but Newton backhands a throw to Mike Tolbert, who's off for a 14-yard rumble. McAulay and crew ignore a Seahawk ripping his helmet off at the end of the play. That was an easy 15-yard penalty. Wake up down there. Big opportunity missed on 1st down - Cotchery drew coverage from Irvin on a play-action pass and was wide open but Newton missed him badly.

Carolina pays for that immediately when Newton and Stewart blow a read option handoff, largely because Michael Bennett is there immediately to blow it up, and McDaniel pounces on it immediately for the first game-turning play of the night.

Slant from Wilson to Baldwin gets Seattle in the red zone. Lynch runs into Thomas Davis in the backfield and gets only 1. Carolina has been all over the run so far. Helfet drops a play-action pass in the flat; not sure he would have gotten much. Kind of predictably, Carolina blitzes hard on 3rd-and-long, Wilson throws a jump ball for Baldwin and Tre Boston plays it like a complete idiot to give up the TD. When you are a safety, you cannot let a WR RUN AROUND YOU to get to a TD pass. Good grief. 7-0 Seattle

Newton will try to right the ship from his 22. Stewart cuts back after a read option handoff, picks up an outside block by Greg Olsen and sprints for 15. Newton stares down Brown on a comeback route at midfield but doesn't pay for it as the quarter ends.

SECOND QUARTER
Newton takes off for 9 on a designed draw play. Wagner prevents Stewart from converting on 2nd-and-1 but Newton gets across on 3rd down. DeAngelo Williams cuts back for 6 as Andrew Norwell really blows Kevin Williams off the ball at guard. Sherman jumps a slant for Brown and probably should have picked it off. 3rd-4 at the SEA33, a pancake block by Trai Turner on the right side gives Newton plenty of time to hit Brown on the sideline for 10. DeAngelo cuts back for 8 off kind of a counter sweep, off another strong block outside by Olsen. Stewart gets crunched by McDaniel up the middle after 1, but Tolbert bashes down to the 11 for another 1st. They're attacking Seattle the way you have to. Slug, slug, slug. And keep slugging. Irvin and Wagner string out a Stewart sweep right for 1.  Stewart breaks a couple of tackles trying to take a draw outside for 3. 3rd-and-6, Newton fires a laser at Benjamin on a slant at the goal line for a game-tying TD. Quite the drive there by Newton and his RBs. Seahawks 7, Panthers 7

Seattle will have to earn a drive now from their 22. Inside handoff to Lynch, who runs through Kuechly for 7. Kuechly got the tackle, though, so I'm sure they're LUUUKing in Charlotte. Lynch pounds out the first down. Davis makes yet another backfield hit on Lynch, though, to set up 2nd-10. Dwan Edwards nearly pushes Sweezy over Wilson and forces him to dump to Lynch for 3.


On 3rd-and-7, Carolina runs an idiot delayed blitz, and more Rams-quality secondary play gives up a 63-yard TD to Kearse, who got behind Benikwere laughably trying to track Wilson's lob over his shoulder and failing, while Kearse hauled it in one-handed, ran away and dived late for the pylon to beat the safety. Under actually looking like a bad play here. 14-7 Seahawks

4:54 left for a Carolina answer, which they need because they kick off the 2nd half. Kam Chancellor blows up a screen to DeAngelo at the 21. Newton's throwing again but can't hit Olsen in the left seam. He does hit Cotchery with a fast ball for 13 to keep the drive alive. 11 to Bersin, and Newton appears to have stopped trying to throw at Sherman. Stewart up the middle for 4 more, and McDaniel tacks on 15 by trying to rip his helmet off by the facemask. Short read option run by Newton to the 35 at the 2:00 warning.

Good protection lets Newton fire for Benjamin in the back of the end zone, beating Sherman, but he comes about a foot away from getting his back foot in. 3rd-and-9 is an eventful play; Newton steps up from a blitz, shoves one of his linemen to the ground and takes off. Schofield chases him down and knocks the ball out of his hand about a yard short of the first down. It goes out of bounds, but in the last 2:00 of the half, it returns to the spot of the fumble. 4th down, Carolina, after Schofield's clutch play.  Riverboat Ron will gamble here? No, Panthers timeout at 1:02. And now a Seattle timeout as Lynch steals my NBA joke from the first game.

Newton lunges for the first down at the SEA25 at 0:53. Chancellor holds DeAngelo to a couple on a screen that had beat a blitz. Carolina lets the clock tick down to 0:23 before calling timeout. It's just the playoffs; no rush.

Seattle's blitz wins the day the next play. Newton's grabbed by Avril but tries to power through for an end zone pass anyway. Bad idea. Underthrows into double coverage typically don't work out well; Earl Thomas picks off the pass intended for Benjamin inside the 5.

So, wait. Newton had a receiver double-teamed by Earl Thomas AND Richard Sherman and tried to force it in there anyway. That's too dumb to explain.

So, wait further. Thomas didn't intercept the ball. He didn't "complete the process". The ball squirts out of his hands and drags along the ground. That's an incomplete pass. Under the hood we go.

Yes. Incomplete pass. Give Benjamin credit for grabbing Thomas' arm on the way down; that helped break up the catch. Tolbert draws down to the 15 on 3rd-and-8 to bring in the FG team. Gano's first attempt goes through but comes back due to a false start. Chancellor jumped over the A gap, nearly blocked the kick (should have), and Burkhardt and Lynch act like that play has never happened in the history of the NFL. Daren Bates did it two weeks ago, guys. And blocked the kick. In Seattle. Great game prep, guys. Seattle stole that play from John Fassel!

The first half that WILL NEVER END keeps going. Chancellor pulls off the Bates Bounce a second time, which I guess makes Gano duck-hook the 40-yard attempt so badly it doesn't even touch him, and he gets 5 yards for running into the kicker. We'll try again from 35. Seattle finally calls off the Bates Bounce play and Gano hits it, but looked shaky. Seattle may well be in Gano's head; file that away for later. Seattle 14, Carolina 10

HALFTIME SHOW
Seahawks.com
EVERY team in the NFL throws away from Richard Sherman's side of the field. Newton has thrown an INT and a near-INT trying it, and the Panthers will assuredly lose if he keeps trying. Furthermore, Byron Maxwell is out of the game on the other side of the field; THAT's where Newton should be throwing. Carolina has also done criminally little with Olsen in the passing game. They do deserve credit for calling an excellent running game. I think that can be even bigger for them in the 2nd half because Seattle's likely to turn up the blitzes. The Panthers have a lot of ways of staying in this game if they quit playing with fire.


The big surprise to me so far is how poorly the Seahawks have run. The passing game and Carolina's comical secondary have made it moot so far. Where's Turbin? Where's Christine Michael? I'd get Wilson on the move more in the 2nd half, too; try to spread things out to open that running game back up. I have to recommend Carolina not blitz as much in the 2nd half. They'll expose that secondary, give Wilson room for big plays, and their front four's doing well enough to make it unnecessary. Carolina can play their way out of this game, but they're also one big defensive play away from the upset of the season. This game's already higher-scoring than I half-thought it would be and the 2nd half should be much more exciting than I was expecting, too.

THIRD QUARTER
Lynch goes up the middle twice, losing the ball the second time, but Wilson fell on it. Wilson then threw a 3rd-and-3 dart to Paul Richardson, who took off with it between two Panthers all the way out to midfield. Panthers laid at least 8 yards off him at the snap. Wilson goes deep next for Richardson, but Benikwere breaks it up. Richardson stays down with an apparent hamstring injury. Lynch can't stiffarm Kuechly off him on a run that gains only 2. Carolina rushes only 4 on 3rd-and-7 but pull off a stunt on the right side to perfection, with someone named Mario Addison getting on top of Wilson with ludicrous speed for a sack.

The punt pins Carolina at the 12 as we resume the field position battle of the first half. A fake handoff to Stewart would have lost three, which makes the no-gain option pitch to Cotchery sound not all that bad. Stewart draws for 6 with Norwell and Ryan Kalil getting out well. Newton beats a 3rd-down blitz with a 6-yard out to Benjamin, though. Good time for Newton lets him hit Olsen on a post for 18. Weird pass to Cotchery that doesn't look like a legal forward pass gains 3. Avril and Bennett collapse the pocket on 2nd down but Newton steps up and hits Ed Dickson all alone in the flat for 14, to the SEA41. Panthers not flinching at all here, to their credit. Well, now they can flinch a little; Avril casts Byron Bell aside at LT, brushes off Norwell and drops Newton for a sack at the 50. That, surprisingly, was Seattle's first sack. Irvin and Avril collapse the pocket again and Newton overthrows everyone. Schofield is the only Seahawk to get close to Newton on 3rd-18 but he fires a poor pass incomplete.

Seattle's turn to start a drive at their 12. They've been held to 29 yards rushing, so Wilson drops back to pass, then scrambles and weaves for a 14-yard gain. Jones breaks up a short pass to Helfet. Short jumps offside, then here's Turbin, surging off right guard for 4. Wilson to Willson on the naked bootleg for 6 and a first at the 41. And, uh-oh, here comes Beast Mode. Lynch runs through Kuechly in the hole and Davis downfield and about 3 other Panthers down to the 20, but is incorrectly ruled out of bounds at the 34 and has to settle for a 25-yard run. Wilson keeps it on read-option and slides for 4. Josh Norman neatly breaks up an underthrown long ball for Kearse, but holding on Roman Harper costs them a 1st down at the CAR25. Turbin runs through an arm tackle and fights for 4. Wilson keeps it again, breaks Addison's tackle and scrambles for 7 more. Davis meets Turbin in the backfield and holds him to 2. Lynch runs through Wes Horton while Max Unger wipes Davis out to help him get 5. 3rd-3 at the 7. Davis avenges that last play by blitzing in untouched and sacking Wilson back at the 20. This looked like it was supposed to be a gimmicky screen to Kearse, but he and Lynch ran into one another trying to set up the misdirection. Looks like Steven Hauschka will come out to start the 4th quarter...

FOURTH QUARTER
...and hits from 37 to extend Seattle's lead. Seahawks 17-10

Illegal use of hands by former Ram practice squad lineman Mike Remmers moves the Panthers back to their 10. Carolina three-and-outs from there at a bad time, with Tolbert dropping a 3rd-down pass that would have moved the sticks.

Seattle wins the field position battle again and will start at their 43. Turbin gets stuffed by Mizzou's Kony Ealy on 1st down, but on 3rd down, Willson catches a short pass, collides with Benikwere, appearing to injure him, and takes off and carries about 4 more Panthers down to the 25. Melvin White breaks up an end zone pass to Lockette. Ealy steps up again and stuffs Lynch for no gain.  The Wilson-Willson ticket runs wild on third down, though. White's a mile off the line, Willson's all alone in the seam for a short catch, White whiffs, Addison apparently had goofy zone blitz responsibility, and Willson cruised for a 25-yard TD almost unchallenged. Seattle 24-10 In related news, RamView still hates zone blitzes.

That may do it for Carolina. They'd sure better score now. But it's Irvin sacking Newton for a 8-yard loss instead. Beat Bell again with little problem. Stewart gets most of the loss back on a delay handoff, but it's still 3rd-and-13. Newton gets a lot of time, though, and finds Dickson for a 19-yard catch-and-run. Newton scrambles for 2 and then hits rarely-heard-from Benjamin at midfield for another first. Tharold Simon has complained about getting pushed on every play. Olson makes a sweet grab of a Newton line drive down the right seam for 31. Panthers appear to be in business at the SEA 19. Newton shoves Olsen to the ground and bounces outside for 6 on an option run.

(Ctrl-C) Another short out route to Benjamin for 4. That's his go-to route with pressure coming from his left and is eventually going to get jumped.(Ctrl-V) The pressure was coming from the right, but it was a short out, for Dickson, and Chancellor jumped it for a back-breaking, cover-breaking, under-breaking 89-yard pick-six. No one to blame there but Newton. Seattle 31-10

Bah, I knew the game would never stay under if Seattle covered. I stupidly counted on it to stay under instead of counting on Seattle to cover and came up a cropper. RamView will have to settle for 4-for-6 on today's bets.

Stewart takes off for 17 as Carolina continues to run well. Olsen makes a tough sideline grab for 5. Thomas breaks up a deep pass for Cotchery down the left seam. Newton converts the 3rd down, though, spearing Benjamin in a crowd. He takes off for about 28 after Wagner and Simon both went for the INT and missed instead of trying to tackle him. Seattle called a timeout to reset their defense they honestly didn't have to. You're up three TDs. About half the Seattle defense jumps offsides coming out of the timeout. Short pass to Olsen at the 25. Inside handoff to Fozzy Bear Whitaker gets 1 and the 1st, but the Panthers need to move more quickly than this. Newton half-rolls away from Schofield and hits Cotchery at the 15. A perfect toss in the end zone for Benjamin, also perfectly misplayed by Simon, scores Carolina a TD with 2:34 left. Seattle 31-17

Carolina put together a lot of nice drives on the Seahawks tonight. No one on that o-line besides Kalil has much of a reputation. Olsen's their only receiver with much of a reputation. Newton's turnovers just destroyed them. Aaron Rodgers may not be as generous a week from now. (Tony Romo probably would be.)

Seattle recovers an onside kick attempt, gets a long run from Turbin, then a big loss from Turbin, so for some reason they go deep at the 2:00 warning and Wilson hits Kearse, running wide open down the right seam, inside the 10. Um, you're up by 3 TDs? Victory formation from there, though, and Seattle will host the NFC Championship for the 2nd straight year. Final score: Seattle 31, Carolina 17

ESPN.com / Getty
POSTGAME SHOW
Turnovers won this game, and Chancellor had the biggest one, plus 11 tackles, four of them stops for two yards or less; he will take home the POTG hardware even though he's the main person who cost me on the under bet. Carolina still moved the ball well enough to think either Dallas or Green Bay has a fighter's chance up there next weekend. More on that tomorrow.

Carolina has plenty to work on for a playoff team. Of course, they're also a 7-8-1 team, so that shouldn't be too big a surprise. I don't think you can start Byron Bell at LT and a Rams practice squad castoff at RT and be taken seriously, so I'd start at tackle, but they should also look for receivers and defensive backs.

I'll try to post quick previews for tomorrow's games before shutting it down for the night.

-$-

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