Sunday, January 18, 2015

AFC Championship:: New England 45, Indianapolis 7

ESPN.com / Getty
And now for the rest of today's bad gambling advice. Are the Colts a team of destiny? Was that a changing of the guard we saw last week in Denver, with Andrew Luck winning and Peyton Manning humbled? Are we in for another today? I can't rule it out. New England's supposed to be able to run on the Colts, but Indy hasn't been run on this postseason. If the Colt secondary can shut down Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders, they can sure shut down Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. That leaves Tom Brady looking around hoping to find Gronk or a receiver out of the backfield. But I will say this, those are much more viable options for Brady than Manning had last week. Peyton has no backs to throw to, and I assume Julius Thomas was never 100% going back to his original ankle injury here in St. Louis. That may be enough to get Brady by. Luck still seems good for a couple of dumb turnovers tonight and the Colt running game still fails to impress me. However, I think T.Y. Hilton presents the Patriots a serious challenge. Revis Island was not a very impressive destination last week. The Colt offensive line is playing as well as it has in a couple of years. The pieces are falling into place for a Colts return to the Super Bowl.

I just feel like they're still missing a piece, and it will probably still have to do with establishing the run or defending the run. It'll be closer than the 7-point spread, but Brady will find a way. And, yes, reverse psychology, Brady vs. Luck OBVIOUSLY means to play the under (51.5), right? Indy was under in their two playoff games so far. Patriots 24, Colts 20 Once again, bet accordingly. Actually, never bet on football.

Nantz and Simms announcing for CBS with Walt Anderson as flagmaster of ceremonies.


FIRST QUARTER
Oh man, am I drained from that first game (and starting this game about two hours late). Not to encourage Goodell or anything, but what would be wrong with putting these conference championship games on different days? Just a thought. I need the rest!

Hokey smokes, is the rain ever coming down in Foxborough. The national anthem is performed by Pat Monahan, who should be brought up for crimes against humanity for a couple of Train's annoying songs. Arthur Jones is bawling like a baby on the sideline just thinking about "Hey S*** S******".

I assume the Colts won the toss and start at their 21. Andrew Luck does not start sharp, missing Dwayne Allen on an out with an A-gap blitz coming at him and missing Reggie Wayne very badly under pressure on a slant to the sideline.

Julian Edelman gets a HUGE block from Darius Fleming, who knocked a Colt flying, and returns the punt 21 yards to the NE44. The Colts look about as ready for this game as the Seahawks did for the first game. Shane Vereen empties the backfield on first down and curls in for a 6-yard catch. Jerrell Freeman and Josh Chapman stuff LeGarrette Blount on 2nd. Tom Brady has Edelman wide open up the seam on 3rd-and-3 but overthrows him. Well, the under's looking good so far.

NOPE, it's MORE SPECIAL TEAMS HIJINKS, from an unexpected source, as veteran Josh Cribbs lets a poor, short punt clang off his face. Fleming is on the spot again for the recovery and his second big special teams play, a daily double, if you will.

Patriots at the IND26 now. Quick out to Edelman for 5. Blount makes a nifty cut a 250-pound man shouldn't be able to make and runs through arm tackles for 9. After a 2nd down quick out to Edelman leaves 3rd-and-inches at the 3, I appreciate Nantz and Simms trying to stay on top of Belichick possibly benefiting from poor calls as they suggest the spot of the ball is off a couple of yards, but they're completely wrong. Based on the position of the ball when Edelman's knee was down, the crew pretty much nailed the spot. All I know for sure is, DON'T ASK MIKE CAREY. One play later, they try to give Blount a TD on a play where he is CLEARLY down inside the 1. It'll be first-and-goal once they get this whole mess cleared up. Which they do, then Blount drives in for the TD the next play. Patriots 7, Colts 0

Hee, New England has already outrushed their total from last week. Boom Herron takes a pitch left for 12 off good blocks from Allen and Anthony Castonzo. Jamie Collins fights off an Allen block to lower the Boom for 1 the next play, then Rod Ninkovich gets Luck scrambling for about 6. Darrelle Revis has to come out after the play with a knee injury, which bears watching. His backfield partner Brandon Browner holds on 3rd down to give the Colts a freebie. Indy picks up a blitz as Luck hits Allen for 6. Jack Mewhort and Khaled Holmes give Herron a nice line to cut into for a first down across midfield. Herron up the middle for 5 more; Lance Louis opened up a big hole. The Colts aren't supposed to be able to do this, are they? So, of course, Indy stops running and Ninkovich tips away a bootleg pass. Ninkovich makes Luck step up on 3rd-and-5, but he hits Coby Fleener at the NE33. "Hands of Stone" Herron drops a short pass on 1st down and blows another on a deep route where he would have beaten Collins for a TD. Wayne can't get turned for a throw behind him on 3rd down, sending in He Who Shall Not Be Named. His kick is so not good at all that I'm pretty sure the man in the middle got a hand on it.

Jet sweep to Edelman gets 11 across midfield and a couple more when he fumbles forward out of bounds. Now it's the infamous 4-lineman formation, with what I'll have to call quads left and Indy not guarding Hoomanawanui in the right slot because they know he's ineligible. Talk about much ado about nothing. Gronk motions over to lead a bubble screen to LaFell with Illini Mike, but LaFell blows the catch. I guess you don't have to announce an ineligible receiver; Anderson didn't do it here, just like Bill Vinovich last week. (A big reason to doubt Vinovich made a mistake there: he has been assigned to work the Super Bowl.) 2nd-10, Shane Vereen splits wide left, beats Freeman down the sideline decisively, gets run over by Freeman thanks to a bad Brady underthrow, and still makes the catch inside the 20. That should have been a TD, though, Brady. Don't know how no flag there, but it hardly matters. Montori Hughes and Ricky Jean-Francois stuff Blount up the middle. Then, a RamView favorite, Indy blowing a T.O. on defense. A slant pass for Edelman goes off his hands inside the 10.  Indy then leaves him wide open in the middle of the field on 3rd-and-9, and he wriggles down inside the 5 to make it 1st-and-goal. Blount powers down to the 1 behind Josh Kline and Dan Connelly. The Patriots distract the Colts (and me) on 2nd-and-goal by motioning the blocking TE, then leak out fullback James F. Develin, who ran through D'Qwell Jackson for a 1-yard TD catch. Patriots 14-0

The Colts are off to the same start as Seattle today, but I suspect a similar comeback will be a lot harder on the road. While the vomit rises in my throat, I'll have to opine that Josh McDaniels has them completely off balance right now in what's been an advanced offensive clinic, with ridiculous amounts of motion and misdirection.

Luck, in need of some, starts out at his 20. Read-option-looking handoff to Herron for 4. Herron catches another one out of the backfield for 9. Ninkovich bats down a pass, nearly picked it off. Luck well overthrows Hakeem Nicks deep to end what has felt like a very long (sorry) first quarter.

SECOND QUARTER
Luck gets pressure off both edges on 3rd-and-10 and throws well behind Hilton to send the punter back in. Castonzo is not matching his previous excellent play so far this preseason at all.


Oof, Luck has started 3-for-12. From his 30, Brady misses Gronk between 3 Colts, flirting with a turnover. DANNY AMENDOLA weaves for 8 off a quick hitch. Brady beats a heavy blitz on 3rd down with a 4-yard quick out to Edelman. Blount cuts back twice, embarrassing Shaun Phillips and then Darius Butler, for 10 across midfield. He's 50 lbs. too big for those kind of moves! He then runs up Ryan Wendell's back but pushes off through a big hole made by Connolly for 8 more. Another cutback, another 4 yards, another first down. Four more up the middle, exactly the way a lot of us last week thought the Patriots would take it to the Colts. Illini Mike catches a comeback at the IND29, leaving 3rd-and-1. After a Patriot timeout, Blount runs into Jean-Francois behind the line, but cuts back yet again, gets stopped a second time but keeps driving for about 3. Should the Colts really need to be reminded to play to the whistle in a conference championship game?

D'Qwell Jackson doesn't; he covers Gronk nicely and reacts even more nicely to a poor Brady throw behind Gronk, picking it off and returning it to the Colt 7. The weather's not favorable, but Brady's downfield throws haven't looked like much of anything so far and the Colts need to leverage that.

Luck hits Allen for 9, but a dumpoff to Jack Doyle loses 5, but Vince Wilfork earns a 15-yard penalty for going to Doyle's head late. Colts to their 31. Luck is still way off; he gets time on 1st down and misses Hilton badly on an intermediate route. Hilton responds with an impressive catch on 3rd down, half-diving, half-kneeling his way out of bounds and keeping his feet in on a 38-yard corner route. Luck scrambles for 3, then Devin McCourty breaks up a deep middle pass for Hilton. Jamie Collins hands them a first down with an illegal contact flag. An A-gap blitz by Collins forces a poor throw from Luck for an open Zurlon Tipton. Ninkovich beats RT Joe Reitz for the millionth time tonight, but Luck scrambles away and hits Fleener at the 12. New England next rushes TWO and delay blitzes Ninkovich, too cute by half as Luck hits Fleener uncovered over the middle and down inside the 1. Yep, 8 in coverage and they still left a man wide open. Ball came out as he reached for the goal line, but his knee was already down. That would have been a TD anyway for breaking the plane, Pats fans. The Colts rush the next play and Tipton burrows off an Allen block on the right end for their first score. Patriots 14, Colts 7 Aaaand the field mike picks up Luck dropping a huge F-bomb on national TV, hee.

Pats at their 32 with 4:48 left in the half. Brady beats a 3rd-and-6 blitz with a pass to Edelman on a drag route out to midfield. Blount breezes for 5 off a Develin block. He fakes out two Colts with a cutback and runs through another two for 8 more, and this is just getting silly. Another 9 through another huge hole behind Develin. Pats are in makeable FG range at the 2:00 warning. Brady gets a Bush Push from Develin for 2 and a 1st down at the IND27. Freeman blitzes and hits Brady, lowering his head and hitting him in the chest, which Mike Carey assures us is a penalty every time. God has the NFL gotten soft. Now at the 13, Arthur Jones stops Blount cold, and we have a soccer game breaking out now, as Jones flops like a very large fish after Blount takes a gratuitous shot at him. No flag for roughing or a yellow card for simulation. Brady goes for Gronk in the back of the end zone with 1:00 to go but Gronk can't keep both feet in. The Colts use their 2nd timeout at 0:53 due to defensive confusion. Brady steps up from rare pressure on 3rd-10 and scrambles, but careens down a little short of the first down at the 4. Sebastian Vollmer went down on the play like he'd been shot. I think Develin hammered him in the ribs trying to help out on pass pro. Also, Edelman is barking at the referee about the spot on the play in a manner that should get him unsportsmanlike conduct.

On 4th-and-about-two-inches, proving he's no Mike McCarthy (McCarthy would need to be an inch and three-quarters closer), Belichick goes for it. No, he takes a timeout to think about it. Don't be a McCarthyite, Bill.

He isn't. Brady is stopped a yard behind the line on a sneak attempt but gets another Bush Push from Develin down to the 3. 0:23 to go. The Pats use their last timeout, then Butler probably interferes with a classic Amendola out route at the goal line, but gets away with it. Vontae Davis makes a very nice play at the goal line to break up a slant to Gronk. A lot of contact there, too. The Pacers now use their last timeout and the Celtic will have to throw it back in from under their own basket. Whahuh? This isn't an NBA game? Freeman makes Indy's 3rd straight clutch pass defense by breaking up an out route for Vereen at the goal line. New England settles for 3 from Stephen Gostkowski. Patriots 17-7

HALFTIME SHOW
Patriots.com
Oh no, I think I have to agree with Phil Simms. New England has dominated this game so far and it feels like the Colts should be down farther than they are. They're putting little pressure on Brady and getting gouged in the running game; I think they have to load the box in the 2nd half, trust the secondary that had such an excellent game last week and make Brady prove he can beat them with his deep ball. Gronk would logically be a big part of New England's answer to that, pretty crazy he hasn't been very involved yet.

The Colt offense better figure out a way to stop Rod Ninkovich before the end of halftime. They may need to start giving Castonzo some help over there. They're not showing very good tempo on offense, either, and their WRs are barely even involved in the offense. OK, coverage is likely a lot of that, but especially with Hilton's speed, they need to get the ball into his hands. Let's run more quick-hitting stuff in the 2nd half instead of going for so much downfield.

Huh, that sounds something like the adjustments I told Seattle to make at halftime today. Worked for them!

THIRD QUARTER
Amendola gets swamped at the 13 with the return to open the half. Edelman gets them out of trouble with a 23-yard catch on 3rd-and-2, embarrassing Greg Toler with a juke to get about half of it. We now return you to your regularly-scheduled program - The LeGarrette Blount Show. He gets 9 on two carries and then blasts for another 22 off blocks by Nate Solder and Cameron Fleming, who I think was the jumbo tight end. And another 9 down to the Colt 16, a patient run off a Gronk block. Blount gets stuffed on 2nd down, and then on 3rd down, YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. Yes, it's a TD pass from Brady to... NATE SOLDER. More alignment chicanery turns Solder into an eligible receiver - we hear no announcement of this at home, but he's eligible because both wideouts are offset a yard back, and the Colts have no idea. He releases the DE, rolls a yard off the line, plucks Brady's pass outside his frame like he's been doing it his whole life, puts the ball away, takes off and runs over Toler at the goal line. An athletic Big Guy play to make all Big Guys proud. And set up a Super Bowl From Hell for Rams fans. Patriots 24-7

Simms says, of course Solder reported eligible, and the Colt defense was informed about it. B.S. How does he know? We got no announcement of it over the P.A. and on the play, the Colts sure didn't act like they knew Solder was eligible. I'm not accusing New England of cheating here, even though it is an important part of their recent history; they didn't, but I sure need a hell of a lot more proof that the Colts knew what was going on than Simms' word.

Anyway, the Colt defense has failed to adjust to getting run over all the first half; now the offense has failed to adjust to slow down Ninkovich, who hits Luck as he throws to force an incomplete. What were you clown coaches doing at halftime, playing Twister? OK, now Nantz insists Solder was announced as eligible. Why the hell aren't we hearing these announcements on TV?

More fun, that's two TDs by offensive linemen so far today vs. two by wide receivers. Less fun, Luck can't find anything open at all on 3rd-and-8 and throws out of bounds in Hilton's general vicinity. Pep Hamilton's made Brian Schottenheimer-quality adjustments here in the 2nd half.

Brady to a wide-open Gronkowski across midfield for 16 and surprisingly his first catch. And maybe we've heard the last from the f*cking 4-lineman formation as Cory Redding beats it and sacks Brady. If so, I nominate Redding for a Nobel Prize. It's now raining Wildcats and red dogs but Brady still hits LaFell for 9. 3rd-7, Gronk gets under zone coverage for the first down. Nantz now says that Anderson announced Fleming an eligible receiver. We didn't hear a thing on TV. Edelman slips out of the left slot all alone, with LaRon Landry biting horribly on play-action, to catch a Brady lob at the 14; 22 yards. I throw up in my mouth yet again and say that Josh McDaniels is putting on a show here tonight. The Colt defense simply doesn't have a clue. Blount all but skips for another 9 behind Wendell and Connolly. Brady then sneaks it all the way down to the 1. Huh, Anderson flagged Solder for not reporting eligible. Back to the 10, Blount hammers out another 5. Brady sneak again? No, he stays in shotgun and fires a slant to Gronk for a TD, beating Toler. Pretty much time to start hitting fast-forward, gang. Patriots 31-7

Indy has to try to make their comeback while it's raining in sheets. Quick slant from Luck to Nicks for 15 anyway. Another 4 to Allen with a delay blitz coming. Looked like Nicks dropped the 2nd-down pass on about a 25-yard corner route.


And, good night, everybody. The Stupid Luck Turnover we were probably overdue for hits here as he underthrows Hilton slanting toward the sideline. Revis had gotten caught up in the double rub routes that got Hilton open in the first place, but got clear in time for a leaping catch and return inside the 15. Super Bowl XHELLIX is on the way.

Blount scores from the 13 with little resistance; thanks for packing it in early, Indy. Patriots 38-7 The Colts, and especially their coaching staff, shot their wad beating Denver last week.

A DPI gets Indy one first down, but Revis defends a long first down pass, Collins flushes Luck to force a throwaway and Ninkovich burns Reitz with a spin move to rush a bad screen pass from Luck. It's between Revis, Ninkovich and Blount for POTG at this point, ASSUMING THE THIRD QUARTER EVER ENDS.

Edelman fields the punt at his 9, gets a MASSIVE block from Brandon Bolden at the 20 and motors upfield to the IND45. Second time tonight a Patriot has sent a Colt flying while blocking a kick return. Turns out that Studebakers can fly, and Andy Studebaker stayed down after that blast. A couple of short plays grind out a third quarter that feels like it took all night!

FOURTH QUARTER
Gronk drops a wide open quick slant on 3rd-and-4, and of course the classy Belichick is going for it up 38-7, and Edelman beats Jackson for 7 yards. Blount up the middle - nothing fancy here - for 7 behind Kline. Completions to LaFell and Edelman get New England inside the 5, and Blount surges in pretty easily from there. Screw you, Patriots, screw you, Colts, there goes the under. By a HALF FREAKING POINT. RamView loses 2 out of 3 bets on this game. Patriots 45-7

Oh well, at least I guessed the Colts would have trouble stopping the run. I just expected a lot better from Greg Manusky than we got. The Colts drive back across midfield before we do in fact get our second Dumb Luck Play, an interception in the flat essentially thrown right to Collins. Could it be Jimmy Garoppalo time?

No, of course Belichick leaves Brady in, though Blount is out in favor of Jonas Gray. AND OF COURSE classy Belichick has Brady going deep on 3rd-and-9. Which he badly underthrows. SEE, COLTS? I TOLD YOU! MAKE HIM BEAT YOU DEEP! Good on Redding for going at Brady's knees after the throw. Pats punt it back with 5:45 to go.

The Colts just try to chew clock with two handoffs and a screen and can only gain 4 yards doing that. Well, they worked off two minutes.

And here's Brady again, for one handoff and then a curtain call. Allow me to also draw the curtain on this ludicrous spectacle.

POSTGAME SHOW
ESPN.com / Getty
 I think he only had half the fantasy points he did in New England's last playoff romp over the Colts, but Blount still takes home the POTG: 148 and 3 TDs on 30 carries. Honorable mentions to the Patriot offensive line just bullying the Colts up front all night, Revis and Kyle Arrington for shutdown work on Hilton and Wayne, and (retch) Josh (hack) McDaniels (heave) for a masterful attack (BARF SPEW PROJECTILE VOMIT).

I've already complained about my 1-for-3 gambling game. Thanks for keeping it close, Indy! I'll still take the winning weekend and my legend status for nailing the NFC game.

The Colts were the stereotype of a dome team outdoors in the playoffs, weren't they? Nowhere near tough enough to hang with a punishing ground game. There will be good RBs available for them to take late in the 1st round of the draft; after that, every pick should probably just be the biggest defensive tackle they can find, or offensive line depth.

The line I saw on the Super Bowl was Seattle by 1, but it's wavering back and forth. As am I. Last year I was too foolish to remember defense wins championships and made a foolish pick. Russell Wilson is famously 10-0 now against Super Bowl-winning QBs, which is very hard to bet against. I expect a tight game all the way because every one of New England's Super Bowls has come down to the wire. If I put any bet on the game, it would be on an RB to be the game MVP. Warning to all that I believe the over (48.5) is 4-0 this postseason in Seattle and New England games. I can't see Seattle winning from behind like they have been, especially when I think their o-line is at least a level below New England's. While Richard Sherman's elbow replaces Aaron Rodgers' calf as America's most talked-about body part for two weeks, I also see Revis dying of boredom toying with Seahawk receivers for whom "pedestrian" status might as well be "Usain Bolt". I guess I'll go with the stupid Pats. The upside is that if (when) I'm wrong, they're the team I'd rather see lose. Pats go into the 4th up 24-10, Seattle ties it late with another Russell Rally but gives Brady too much time to set up Gostkowski for the winner, and oh crap, that sounds a lot like the end of SB XXXVI. RETCH BARF PROJECTILE VOMIT HEAVE MORE PROJECTIVE VOMIT

Programming note that I still don't live-blog the Super Bowl. I know as Rams fans watching the Patriots and Seahawks in Arizona's stadium, we'd just as soon see a Superdome-style blackout, all the grass dying and all the toilets backing up. Enjoy the party, try to enjoy the game, and please don't be a corporate tool and pay undying attention to the damn commercials.

-$-

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