Sunday, January 11, 2015

AFC Divisional Playoff: Indianapolis 24, Denver 13

ESPN.com/Getty
More bad gambling advice: knowing this will be the warmest game of the weekend, with temps in the 40s, makes me like Denver a little more since the Peyton Manning Cold Weather Jinx will be out of the way. I also like them more because I'm expecting Julius
Thomas back 100%. Their offensive balance should be a factor. They learned about six weeks ago they had to have a better running game to get anywhere. They have that to fall back on, while Indy doesn't, and Denver has pass rush and a secondary much better than Cincinnati's last week to make the Colts wish they had a running game of their own they could fall back on. For me, it all adds up to The Broncos covering and the game going over the 53.5 mark. 34-24, Denver.

Nantz and Simms on the call for CBS with Bill Leavy pledging the flags.

FIRST QUARTER
The Colts start on offense after Denver defers. Interesting. Andrew Luck drops a screen to Boom Herron for 8. Luck overthrows Coby Fleener's quick out route on 2nd down. 3rd-and-2, and that was quick, Demarcus Ware fell off Anthony Castonzo, grabbed Luck by an ankle and held him to a yard trying to step up and scramble. Pat McAfee should be able to hit the end zone from here at Denver's altitude, but shanks a 39-yard kick instead. More special teams brilliance.


Here's Peyton at his 32. C.J. Anderson burrows up the middle for 5. Corey Redding blows up the 2nd-down handoff, and Josh Chapman finishes Anderson off for no gain. Manning nearly ran the next play before noticing Anderson had taken a knee behind him with some kind of injury. Arthur Jones bails out the Broncos with a late hit on Manning that the Packers got away with at least twice in the first game. Good call, though, putting Denver at the IND45. Anderson's back and gets a big hole up the middle behind Virgil Green for 9. Anderson up the middle for 3 more. Off play-action, Julius Thomas kills LaRon Landry on an out-and-up and is wide open down the sideline for a catch inside the 5. 32 yards. Perfect throw by Peyton. Demaryius Thomas beats Landry with little trouble on a fade route two plays later for the opening TD. Broncos 7, Colts 0 This does not look good for the Colts at all.

Furthermore, the Broncos learned their lesson from the Rams well. Their loss in St. Louis was a wakeup call that they needed to develop a better (i.e. existent) running game; look at how all the Anderson carries set up play-action here. Perfect opening drive.

The Bronco tackles nearly bury Luck on 1st down but he steps up and dumps off to Herron for 4. Fleener breaks a tackle on a screen but is still held to 3. Luck beats a blitz by hitting Dwayne Allen on an 18-yard out. The Colts continue to not even pretend to run, though Herron gets knocked out of the game on a hard shot after a dumpoff. Hakeem Nicks snares a pass at the DEN45 for a 1st. Misdirection screen to Herron doesn't fool Brandon Marshall, who brings him down for a 2-yard loss. Confusion on a bubble screen leads to an incomplete on 3rd down. Pat McAfee's punt pins Denver at the 4, though.

Denver's just destroying the Colts at the line out of the gate. Tight end Green pushes DE Jones 10 yards off the ball as Anderson cuts back for 22. Erik Walden burns Green the next play, though, and drops Anderson in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. The Colts cover the next two passes well, both incomplete, and I guess we'll get to see Luck try a bunch of throwing again.

An actual handoff to Herron gains 1 after he breaks a tackle in the backfield. Aqib Talib blows a jam badly in the slot and T.Y. Hilton burns him for 20 out to midfield. Herron up the middle for 3, so the Colts didn't forget it's legal to run the ball. Fleener continues to get open and burns David Bruton Jr. for 17. A screen to Allen loses 3 but Hilton beats Talib deep over the middle for 23, down to the DEN15. Herron cuts back behind Castonzo for 6. The Colts will end the first quarter trailing, but they're close to tying things back up.

SECOND QUARTER
Herron bangs down to the 6, leaving 3rd-and-1. Herron and Luck appear to mess up that exchange, but Herron bounces out and around a magnificent seal by Allen for a 6-yard TD. Broncos 7, Colts 7 See? Good things happen when you can run.

Emmanuel Sanders turns a middle dumpoff into 14 yards and a first down at the DEN35. Ronnie Hillman drives across midfield for 10 behind Orlando Franklin's blocking. But Darius Butler strings out a sweep for a loss and Landry perfectly cuts off another go route for Julius on 2nd-12. And, quite unexpectedly, the Colts get to Manning with a blitz for a big play. Jonathan Newsome beats LT Ryan Clady badly around the edge and hammers Peyton from the blind side, with Jerrell Freeman falling on the loose ball at the DEN41.

A flea-flicker didn't open up anything deep, so Luck dumps off to Jack Doyle for 3. A slant to Herron, who was split wide, gets 10. The Colts false-start trying to catch Ware offside. Herron runs right into Marshall on an inside handoff for 3. The Colts continue to work over the Bronco secondary, with Donte Moncrief beating Chris Harris for 22 on an in-and-out route. That will put the Colts back inside the 10. Luck fired that on a dime, too, while about to get buried by a Pot Roast. Derek Wolfe almost sacks Luck on 2nd-and-goal, but he barely steps out of it and throws the ball away. Luck hangs super-tough in the pocket on 3rd down, just dodging a flying Pot Roast, and rolls out and fires for Hilton at the pylon, drawing a holding penalty on Talib. Talib held well before Luck threw. 1st-goal at the 3. Luck rolls right again and tosses it away with no one open. 2nd-goal, Luck fires a bullet for Allen at the goal line between three Broncos to put the Colts in a surprising lead. Colts 14-7 This is all happening because I changed my mind and decided Denver would win and cover. Or because Denver can never put that last bit of pressure they need on Luck and probably need to get their blitz going.

Denver beats a blitz and Sanders beats Greg Toler deep but Manning overthrows him. D'Qwell Jackson stuffs a pretty predictable 2nd-down run to make it 3rd-9. Indy brings a heavy blitz again and Sanders beats Toler deep again, and Manning overthrows it again. That was some pretty screwy play-calling by Manning/Gase, and not only that, Josh Cribbs sets the Colts up at midfield after a terrible punt. How do you punt it only 39 yards in Denver? You should be able to kick it 40 yards off your knee at that altitude.

Luck scrambles away from a 4-man rush for *20*, and tack on another 5 for holding on Talib. Herron breaks a tackle and chugs for 6 to the DEN25, but it's 3rd-and-4 after he falls down in the backfield on 2nd down.  Fleener's well-covered by T.J. Ward and Luck throws that direction but out-of-bounds to send in He Who Shall Not Be Named. And HWSNBN misses from 44! Reprieve for Denver there.

The whole Denver offense expertly fakes a bubble screen to Sanders and Anderson takes off with an inside handoff for 14. He goes up the middle for 5 more, and very smart here of Denver to get back to the running game. 3 more for Anderson, stopped by Jackson. 3rd-2. Peyton stands tall in the pocket, overthrows the increasingly questionable deep slot pass, for Wes Welker this time, but the Colts got caught holding. First down at the IND39. ANOTHER deep go sees Vontae Davis blanketing Demaryius; do the Broncos HAVE another route in their playbook today? Yes, but Demaryius drops a quick screen. 3rd-and-10, ANOTHER GO ROUTE FOR SANDERS, nowhere close, and Denver is punting. Adam Gase interviewed for at least four different jobs during the bye week, and it's showing in this awful game-planning here. Not to excuse what increasingly looks like poor decision-making by Manning, either. All the Broncos get out of it all is a field position win, pinning Indy at their 3.

2:32 left in the half and Luck is throwing from his end zone. 3 to Herron, who's thumped immediately. 2:00 to go. Luck appears to check to a run; Von Miller dives and misses Herron on the edge and he bounces outside for 7 and a first. Todd Davis drove Herron down very hard out of bounds and gets an audible "Damn, man!" out of him. Herron is really gutting it out here; he's been playing with a shoulder injury since the second series. Holding on Castonzo the next play puts the Colts back on the 7. Luck throws a dangerous screen pass for Reggie Wayne incomplete into a crowd. Wasn't out of the question for Ward to pick-six that. Herron gets most of the penalty yardage back. The Broncos' timeout on 3rd-12 pays off when Luck scrambles around wildly and throws a terrible pass that Bradley Roby picks off. Roby appeared to be the intended receiver; he had Hilton blanketed deep that well, and I don't know what Luck was thinking. Throw it out of bounds and let McAfee hit a moon shot for the punt.

No, Denver at midfield instead. Lots of time, too, 1:28. ANOTHER DROPPED BUBBLE SCREEN BY DEMARYIUS. DENVER. RUN. ANOTHER. PLAY! Anderson up the middle for 6 off another fake quick throw. The Colts blitz on 3rd-and-4 but Sanders gets open underneath the zone for 17 at the IND28. Manning only gets 2 to Anderson on 1st down and throws too far out of bounds on, I think, ANOTHER GO ROUTE to Julius. 3rd-and-8, ANOTHER GO ROUTE?!?!?!? Davis runs the route for Demaryius and nearly picks it off in the end zone, and would have had Manning made a better throw. The Denver game plan so far today defies rational explanation. Connor Barth hits from 45 to save Denver a little face on the way back into the locker room, while Nantz and Simms are now talking about Seattle's FG block jumps at the end of the first half last night LIKE THEY INVENTED IT, WHEN THE RAMS WERE THE TEAM THAT USED THAT PLAY AGAINST THEM TO ACTUALLY BLOCK A FG. GRRRR.

And, of course, the defensive game last night, Carolina-Seattle went over, while today's Romo-Rodgers game stayed under and Manning-Luck isn't even close to going over. I freaking fall for this crap EVERY TIME!

HALFTIME SHOW
Broncos.com
Denver's recommended halftime adjustments: 1 - a new offensive coordinator, or 2 - a QB with a decent deep ball. How's about you two geniuses play to your strengths and get the quick passing game fired up that had you running away from the whole league the first half of this season? There's no reason that can't be mixed around the strong running game of the first half. Sanders and Welker are especially seeing criminally little of the ball. The Indy D is right on the edge for the taking. Their blitzes are not getting home but Denver's doing nothing but picking stupid ways to try and beat it. Geez, Brian Schottenheimer should have waited before he took the Georgia job.


And the Broncos are going to have to start bringing some blitzes in the 2nd half. Their 4-man rush simply is not getting to Luck. He moves too well to get caught by it. Blitz him into some more mistakes and see if you can't get Talib's head pulled out of his butt while you're at it. Indy's answer should be more quick stuff to Hilton; especially against a blitz, that could break off a big play. I think they're already telegraphing they really don't plan to run much in the 2nd half, either, which could come back to bite them. Again, though, that could be where Hilton helps them with something big off an end-around or a jet sweep.

In the first game today, both teams' answer was to commit further to pounding the ball, which wouldn't hurt either team in this game. Might work better for Denver.

THIRD QUARTER
Denver starts the half with Anderson only getting 1, stopped by Jones. Quick out to Green gets 4. Big pressure and overrun by Walden leaves the right side of the field wide open for Manning; he rolls and forces a sideline throw for Sanders that he can't keep in bounds, thanks in part to Toler. Crowd actually booing Manning for not running there, and they have a point. He would have gotten at least the first down. 3-and-out instead.


Out route to Allen gets 12 out to the 40. While Denver continues to not get there with a 4-man rush, it's a crossing route to Zurlon Tipton out of the backfield for another 12. Draw to Herron for 4; the Colts are doing on offense exactly what the Broncos SHOULD be doing. Luck fires high and wild for Wayne, who fell anyway. Denver does blitz on 3rd-and-6, but Luck fires a brilliant throw to Moncrief on a 16-yard slant. Another 4 to Herron out of the backfield. Ball through Nicks' hands on 2nd-and-6, plus illegal use of hands on Herron moves the Colts back. Now Phil Simms is stealing my halftime adjustments. Hilton drops what would have been a nice gain on a comeback. 3rd-16, and Coby F. Fleener beats Davis down the right seem on a stop-and-go, all the way inside the 10. Holding takes back a Luck TD run off a clever fake shovel pass. Pep Hamilton is coaching Adam Gase under the table. Screen to Herron only gets a couple.

Luck's brilliance then gets the Colts six. The Broncos continue to do nothing with their 4-man rush, and Luck shuffles a little in the pocket and fires a B.B. to Nicks in the end zone, in front of Roby. Colts 21, Broncos 10

Anyone else think we're seeing a changing of the guard among NFL QBs tonight?

Quick out to Sanders only for 3, and Anderson gets stuffed by Jones up the middle to a chorus of Rocky Mountain Boos. Peyton Manning, all 600 career TDs and HoF resume of him, gets booed off the field as a Colt blitz induces a poor throw behind Welker on 3rd down.

And, undeservingly, Denver catches a huge break thanks to, yes, MORE SPECIAL TEAMS IDIOCY. Dewey McDonald rides Omar Bolden into Josh Cribbs trying to fair-catch the punt, wiping him out completely, and Andre Caldwell jumps on the ball that's lying next to Cribbs on the ground because he has no idea where he is at the moment, let alone the ball.

OH MY GOD THEY ARE RULING CRIBBS DOWN BY CONTACT. Colts ball at the 30. This after CBS' Mike Carey stammered for two minutes said they should confirm the fumble. Does Carey ever get one of these calls right?

Needless to say Denver needs a stop here. Here's my end-around to Hilton, which would have got 16 had they called the horse-collar tackle. 1 instead. Hilton answers by beating Talib on the sideline for 11. Pitch right to Herron, but Miller blows it completely up for a 3-yard loss. Luck tries for Moncrief on another out route, but threw it before he was out of his break. 3rd-13, Luck rolls right and throws deep into a crowd. Moncrief and Hilton are both back there, but Rahim Moore steps in front of Moncrief to pick off Luck's second highly-questionable deep throw of the game. Spark of life for Denver.

Indy blows up a bubble screen to Sanders, holding him to only 1. Dump off to Julius in the flat only gets 4 thanks to Toler's solid open-field tackling. Franklin jumps out of his stance to catch Shaun Phillips in the neutral zone. That was Denver's best offensive play all half. Third-and-inches. Anderson crashes off right tackle for Denver's FIRST first down of the half. 6 to Julius with Jackson draped all over him. 4 more to Julius, this time with Landry draped all over him. That loosens up the Colt D for a 10-yard out to Demaryius at the IND45. Jackson holds Anderson to only 1. Green drops a flare route that would have been lucky to gain anything anyway. 3rd-9. Manning catches Indy blitzing with a hard count, and hits Demaryius with a quick pass, but he didn't make the marker on his route, leaving 4th-and-1, and boy, does Anderson pull Denver's ass out of the fire. Cory Redding shot through the line and had him dead to rights for a 6-yard loss, but he got away from that, eluded an also-unblocked Bjoern Werner, ran through a Landry tackle well behind the line and dashed outside for 13 yards. Another awful play call, spun into gold at the end of the quarter.

FOURTH QUARTER
Anderson draw for 1 and another short pass to Sanders leaves Denver another critical third down, but more importantly, did Andrew Luck just spit on himself on the sideline? Hee. Sanders has the first down on a short out, but Butler is there to break up the pass. Denver settles for a Barth 41-yarder. So, are they going to stop Luck on defense? Colts 21, Broncos 13

Denver zone blitzes, and Moncrief had it burned, except Harris broke up the pass. Delay blitz this time, doesn't get there, and Luck fires a perfect pass, but Talib gets away with a hold on Hilton and breaks up that pass. Look for the TEs here. Oh, Denver was, and they were blitzing again, with Ward breaking up the pass downfield for Fleener. Luck didn't throw that one very well under pressure. I'll now have to ask Denver, WHERE HAS THIS BEEN ALL GAME?

Vontae Davis returns the favor by breaking up a 12-yard out for Sanders for our fifth straight play with a pass breakup. Colts continue to jump all over the quick screens, with Landry holding Sanders to a couple. This wouldn't be a problem if the Rams had a QB with a more reliable deep ball than Shaun Hill. Um. Wait a minute. 3rd-7, Davis knocks down a wobbler intended for Sanders downfield. Are we SURE that isn't Shaun Hill at QB? Denver punts to another chorus of boos.

Indy at their 33; time to burn off some clock. If they can. Herron cuts back but Steven Johnson makes a nice tackle on the edge, held him to 1. Denver fails to get Luck with an all-out blitz and Talib leaves Hilton wide open across midfield for 18. Herron knocks out another six behind Castonzo, Doyle and Jack Mewhort. TIPTON bangs out another 5, actually dragging the Pot Roast. What a drive this is for Indy as Tipton blasts out another 9 between Mewhort and Khaled Holmes. They're in FG range already. Herron pushes across the 25 for another 1st down. Doyle catches a tipped screen, gets hit by Ward, staggers, still gains 8. Wolfe shuts Herron down up the middle, leaving 3rd-and-2. Herron converts that, running right over Pot Roast. More like Pot Toast. Luck checks to another handoff to Herron to the 12. Tick tock, Denver. Luck rolls right and dumps off to Doyle, who makes the 9. More importantly, the clock will be under 5:00 when Indy snaps on 3rd-6. Miller blows up Herron's attempt to bounce outside for a loss, sending in HWSNBN, who puts Indy back up by 11 and appears set to take on his old team in Foxborough next week. Colts 24-13 If only the Rams would listen to me like the Colts do. I say "time to burn off some clock", they go on an EIGHT minute scoring drive! That's the stuff champions are made of. Don't know if I should have seen that coming, but I certainly am an idiot for trusting Denver.

4:06 left in the Broncos' season. Quick out to Julius to 4, then Denver FINALLY burns a Colt blitz with a Welker slant for 20. Short pass to Anderson for 2 thanks to pressure by Walden off an excellent jump. Vontae Davis jumps a slant to Andre Caldwell perfectly but blows the catch. 3rd-8. Manning nearly gets sacks and throws incomplete behind a pretty clueless Demaryius.

And, season over. Manning throws a 5-yard pass to Anderson on 4th-and-EIGHT. C.J. does his damnedest, jump-cutting, going down to a hand, trying to drive through three Colts, but he's a half-yard short. That's a perfect spot by the far official; it should be short. It is. Denver obviously has to challenge the call, but it should fail. It does. Send the Colts to New England and send RamView yet another postseason 0-for-3.

The Bronco D manages a rare stop of the Colts and gets the ball back, burning up their timeouts, but Manning continued to get them nowhere in the final 2:00. He got sacked by Walden, whipping Clady again, on the first-to-last play, and the Broncos end the season getting booed off the field by their own fans. Final score: Indianapolis 24, Denver 13

ESPN.com / Getty
POSTGAME SHOW
I-L-L, I-N-I... Vontae Davis best represents the Colt secondary's outright suffocation of the Bronco receivers today, and he will claim the final POTG of the weekend. Denver went to the short passing game in the 2nd half like I advised, but the Colts just locked it down, and Manning's terrible deep balls in the 1st half doomed Denver to getting smothered kind of the way the Rams did to Oakland back in November.

Can the Colts repeat this performance against the Patriots next week? Why not? They can shut down Edelman and Amendola if they can shut down Sanders and Welker. They can certainly shut down Brandon LaFell, given that they just shut down Demaryius Thomas. The big question will be Gronk, because I'm not convinced Julius Thomas was very close to 100%. And is Brady's deep ball going to be all that much better than Manning's? Guess we'll find out. I think New England's best approach will be to try to bash it out with the Colts on the ground. Luck, Andrew, that is, is obviously another key; his defense let him get away with some dumb mistakes tonight he won't get away with against the Patriots. I still do not expect anything like last year's Colts-Patriots divisional playoff, though. The Colts look like a young team that's just grown up and is ready to do big things. You know, like we've been waiting on the Rams to do the past ten years or so. For now, for both conference championships, I'm on the home team to win, the road team, whom I'll be rooting for, to cover, and I'm going with the under.

Surprising amount of soul-searching coming up this offseason in Denver, because one of their biggest limiting factors today appeared to be Manning. They might get another deep run out of him, though, if they can do a major shore-up job on the o-line.

Good night and good luck.

-$-






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