Sunday, January 4, 2015

AFC Wild Card Playoff: Indianapolis 26, Cincinnati 10

ESPN.com
Bengals fans, you just got the great news you've been waiting for: I'm switching my pick to the Colts. I made the mistake(s) of backing teams yesterday missing key players on offense and will try to correct that stupid trend today by picking against Cincinnati since they'll be missing A.J. Green. I probably just gave them license to run all over the Colts like I thought they were going to do in the first place, but Andy Dalton has been useless when he hasn't had Green to go to. Colts and the over.

With the late money in Vegas no doubt coming down hard on the Bengals and the under now, on to the game. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call for CBS, with Carl Cheffers refereeing.

RIP Stuart Scott.

FIRST QUARTER
The Bengals will be without their TWO top receivers - TE Jermaine Gresham was a late scratch. The Colts win the toss and Josh Cribbs is out to the 29 with the opening kickoff. Good pressure on Andrew Luck by Carlos Dunlap off RT on first down, his pass for Boom Herron in the flat isn't very good, and Herron drops it. Plenty of time on 2nd down, and Herron gets behind the 2nd level on a circle route for 18. Luck hard-counts Geno Atkins offside and the Colts cross midfield. Here comes the Boom again, 7 more on a drag route. Luck gets FOREVER to throw off play-action, and Terence Newman gets turned around even worse than Janoris Jenkins ever has, but T.Y. Hilton can't make a clean catch of the underthrown bomb. Never mind, the Colts are obviously a running team anyway, lowering the Boom with a 27-yard sweep left. Anthony Costanzo and Jack Mewhort deliver big lead blocks. Boom up the middle for 3 more to the CIN10. Dunlap gets decent pressure on 2nd down and Luck nearly throws a pick behind Hilton. Luck makes up for that the next play by hitting Dwayne Allen between two defenders at the 2. Herron lowers the Boom on Vincent Rey, who was also blocked well by Mewhort, for the TD.

Indy's up 7-0 in not even four minutes. The Bengals had better have an answer. I hope they are not afraid to run or this will be a long game. Colts 7, Bengals 0

Pac-Man and Atkins yell at one another on the way to the sideline. How the hell is Pac-Man still in the league? The Bengals start with an end-around to... Gio Bernard? Jeremy Hill? Mohammed Sanu? NO, TRY REX BURKHEAD. Talk about unexpected. It's good for 23. Erik Walden drops Hill for no gain, but Hill cuts back left and beats a run blitz for 9. Hill pushes across the IND46 with another 1st down. Blitz pressure by LaRon Landry forces a poor screen pass for Bernard incomplete. Hill skips up the middle for 2. The 3rd-and-long play, I think Dalton checked to it, was a quick slant to Burkhead stopped well short. The Colts won that down with their blitz look.

Crucial stop needed for Cincinnati already. They're simply not built for a shootout. They get the 3-and-out they badly need when Luck and Hilton are not on the same page on 2nd down and Luck barely overthrows him on a deep corner on 3rd. Pat McAfee gets the Colts out of field position trouble with a 59-yard blast.

Bengals at their 26. Quick slant to Sanu in a crowd for 11. Arthur Jones blows up the backfield on a draw for Hill; that loses 1. Dalton hits a tough out route to Sanu for 10. Had Walden in his face. The Bengals get away with running outside on 3rd-and-short. Indy nearly strings it out for nothing but Kevin Zeitler got the corner sealed and Hill popped outside left for 18. A 6-yard run by Bernard, and then it's REX F. BURKHEAD again, wide open on a post for 27 down to the 4, beating Darius Butler. Who needs A.J. Green when you have R.F. Burkhead? Hill bowls over Jerrell Freeman down to the 1-foot line. Make that the 6-inch line after Indy gets caught with 12 on the field. Hill leaps in to tie the game. Great drive by Cincinnati. Bengals 7, Colts 7

Somebody named Zurlon Tipton idiotically fights his teammate Cribbs for the kickoff at the goal line, they muff it and can only return it out to the 9. What the hell is Tipton thinking there? Luck and Hilton fail again to combine on a bomb, and Hilton leaves the game rubbing his lower back. Luck scrambles for about 20 to convert 3rd-and-4, continuing to get excellent protection. Luck then has Coby Fleener open deep up the seam but Leon Hall breaks that up. Colts not even pretending they're going to run as the first quarter runs out.

SECOND QUARTER
On 3rd-10, Hilton's back and Luck hits him with a perfect sideline throw over Pac-Man for 16 at midfield. Hilton then turns an innocent-looking 5-yard cross into a big play by turning the corner and speeding down the sideline for a 30-yard gain. Another play this weekend that the Rams need to steal and run for Tavon Austin next season. Allen's second false start of the series pushes Indy back into another 3rd-and-long, and though he's gotten outstanding protection, Luck's end zone pass is broken up by Dre Kirkpatrick and the Colts settle for a FG by He Who Shall Not Be Named. Colts 10, Bengals 7

Looks like the Bengal D will be without Rey Maualuga due to a hamstring injury. The Colt D rises up here, with Montori Hughes stuffing Bernard on 2nd down and really? Mike Adams? blanketing Greg Little on a 3rd-and-5 bomb attempt. 123-out for the Bengals; not a very inspired possession.

Cribbs gets the punt return out to the 36. 2nd-and-8, Luck once again gets forever to throw and goes long for really? Hakeem Nicks? who makes a classic Hakeem Nicks play and goes up and over George Iloka for the catch at the 17. 45-yard gain. Bengals got no pressure there even blitzing a corner. I enjoy Simms saying the Cotes are not going to hode back. 3rd-and-4 at the 11, a perfectly-timed blitz forces a quick throw, and Luck and Hilton again miss connections, this time a flatout drop by Hilton on the sideline. Hilton not exactly matching his wild card game of last season. Three more points for HWSNBN. Colts 13, Bengals 7 Cincinnati's hanging in but needs a productive drive here.

And we have a soccer game breaking out at Lucas Oil Field, as Shawn Williams takes a dive to make Arjen Robben proud after Andrew Jackson stupidly grabbed his facemask, and of course it draws a yellow card, er, 15-yard penalty. Bengals at their 32. Jones and Ricky-Jean Francois stuff Hill on 1st down, but Bernard runs through Greg Toler at the end of a screen for the 1st. Walden is all over a woeful read option attempt by Dalton for a 2-yard loss. Dalton completes a ginger connection to Ryan Hewitt to get it back to 3rd-and-4. He gets time but overthrows Sanu down the sideline.

Colts ball at their 9, 5:00 till halftime. Domata Peko hushes Boom for a loss. Hilton gets 9 on a quick screen, though, AND CAN'T TAVON AUSTIN RUN THAT PLAY? Indy picks up a 3rd-and-2 blitz with ease and Luck hits Hicks for 3, beating Pac-Man for 3, and he immediately jumps up and complains at the sideline. Luck hits Allen for 10, and Hilton, who has been toying with Newman, for another 25. Apparent confusion at the CIN44 leads to Luck getting sacked for a big loss. Mewhort pulled and Atkins ran right through that hole untouched to Luck. Mewhort or Costanzo got something wrong there. 2nd-and-18 at the 2:00 warning.

Herron appears to create a big momentum swing by converting that 1st down on a screen, but rookie Darqueze Dennard drops the boom on him by stripping the ball out at the end. Recovery by Reggie Nelson. Golden chance for the Bengals here. (They also get the 2nd-half kickoff.)

After a hold on Toler, the Bengals draw Bernard into a blitz, and he's stuffed by Jones and Freeman. 1:00 left as Dalton has to scramble to avoid a blitz and throw a pass away. 3rd-11 at the CIN45. Hewitt breaks off the line wide open and gingerly gets across the marker for the 1st. Vontae Davis blows up a screen to Bernard for a big loss. The 3-yard loss was a generous spot there. Dumpoff to Bernard gets about 7 back. Bengals are at the IND40, 0:19 left, 3rd-and-6. Cincy's first attempt is aborted by the referees giving Chuck Pagano a timeout, seemingly after the snap. Take Two, Landry pushes Bernard out of bounds on a screen that gets maybe two. Mike Nugent's in to try a career long 57-yard attempt. He caroms it in off the left upright! Indianapolis 13, Cincinnati 10 at halftime

HALFTIME SHOW
Colts.com
The Bengal defense is playing a successful game of bend-but-don't-break so far, but they're not going to get away with the light pressure they've put on Luck so far for long. And even bending they've been getting beaten deep. They're going to have to get the 4-man rush going but Indy has that pretty locked down. I'm bracing for Luck to burn a blitz with a big play, and Hilton's going to get something big done against Newman. They're inevitable.

Cincinnati moved the ball much better with Hill at RB than Bernard. You can beat the Colts by hitting them in the mouth and Cincy succeded doing it in the first quarter. Get back to that. They have protected Dalton pretty well; it's up to Andy to sharpen up and start hitting Sanu on some of the open opportunities he's getting. Loosen them up with Hill and set up a big play-action pass.

THIRD QUARTER
The Bengals start the second half with a much-unneeded 3-and-out. They try to bang with Hill but get only 2; Brandon Tate fails to pull down a quick slant; Dalton gets fooled by a zone blitz on 3rd-8 and nearly throws a pick to Walden. That wasn't a promising start.

Then again, Indy starts their first possession with a hold. Allen gets 12 back, then Costanzo gets called for hands to the face. Dumpoffs to Tipton and Herron don't make up for that and the bend-but-don't-break Bengals continue to make it work.

Cincinnati gets pushed back to the 10 after a Dennard personal foul on the punt. Hill gets 4 on 1st down but Freeman makes a strong open-field stop and stuff on 2nd. Vontae Davis makes a big blitz stand up on 3rd down by swatting down a crossing route pass for Tate.

Suddenly both teams have adopted the Rockettes Offense. 123-kick, 123-kick, 123-kick. Colts at their 39. More ironclad protection for Luck and a first down to Donte Moncrief across midfield. Emmanuel Lamur stops a Herron run cold that looked like it was about to break big. Herron shakes Lamur after the catch the next play for 12, though. That was Herron's 8th catch, a receiving boom. Two plays later - CALLED IT! The Bengals blitz Nelson, he nearly gets there, but Luck steps past him, through Atkins and hits Moncrief in the end zone behind a double-team for a 36-yard TD.  Moncrief beat Iloka and Dennard, and that play may be telling us that the Bengals aren't winning today. They're sure not going to stop Luck. Colts 20, Bengals 10

The Bengals open the next drive with a flea flicker, but Toler knocks away Dalton's deep pass for Tate. Bernard speeds off with a screen across midfield, but it gets called back for a hold. Cory Redding blasts away a pass at the line. 3rd-14. Indy fakes a blitz, Dalton gets all day but has to settle for a dumpoff to Bernard, and Freeman wins the race to hold him to five. This game is right at the tipping point; the Bengals need a stop right now.

Colts at their 43. Luck checks to a handoff and Herron blasts through a big hole from Mewhort and Doyle for 9. Herron pops out around left end and runs through Nelson for another 9. If the Lucas Oil roof was open, buzzards would be circling the Bengal sideline. Hilton's wide open inside the 20 for another first down while Pac-Man complains about a pushoff I agree with Simms never happened. A TD screen to Fleener comes back for an illegal block in the back. Colts still make the 10. Lamur offsets that penalty the next play with a hold. 1st-goal at the 5. The Bengals stuff a Herron run on 2nd down and a shovel pass on 3rd down to send HWSNBN back in for another 3. Colts 23, Bengals 10

Bengals are limiting Indy to FGs in the red zone, now their offense has to come up with a play. Stupid decision by Pac-Man to return starts them only at the 13. If you catch the kick behind the whole team logo in the end zone, take a damn knee. Dalton goes deep for Tate, who gets bowled over by Adams, ruled incidental, and BOY does Dalton miss Green on these plays. Hill limps off after getting stuffed on 2nd down. Freeman and Jean-Francois get to Dalton on a 3rd-down blitz for Indy's first sack. The third quarter's done, and so too are the Bengals.


FOURTH QUARTER
For the Colts, Josh McNary actually flinches away from a punt he should have blocked. What the hell are you doing? A Bengal penalty starts Indy across midfield anyway. Luck beats a 2nd-down blitz with an 8-yard out to Hilton at the 35. Herron loses the ball on the next run, but, Bengal luck, center Khaled Holmes falls on it. Tipton comes in and gets stuffed. Hilarious how Trent Richardson can't even get into this game. Tipton breaks a tackle in the backfield on 3rd-long and makes the 35, close enough to send in HWSNBN. It's good from 53 and probably would have been good from 63. Colts 26-10

Still nothing doing for the Bengals. Dalton makes one completion, then sandwiches a Sanu drop with having to eat the ball twice. Think we'll accelerate the finish from here.

Indy gets backed up at their 6 after a penalty on the punt, but Tipton busts up the middle for 12 anyway, with Castonzo stoning a guy in the hole. 3 plays later, Reggie Wayne gets his first catch of the day, beating Dennard on a slant across the 35. Tipton slams out another 8. And sweeps right for another 8 behind Castonzo and Mehort. Iloka stops him on 3rd-and-4 to bring Pat McAfee out with 4:30 to play, but not after the Colts waste all our time trying to get the Bengals to jump offside.

Now or never for the Bengals from their 20. Dalton has a pass deflected and a pass broken up before scrambling to beat a blitz for 17. Ginger ball to Hewitt at midfield. Couple of plays later, though, he gets blindsided by Freeman on a blitz for a sack/fumble and Hughes alertly gets the loose ball with 2:49 left. Start the bus, Marvin. Actually, it should be quite warmed up by now. Actually actually, you probably should have just left it running after everybody got out this morning.

Final score: Indianapolis 26, Cincinnati 10

POSTGAME SHOW
ESPN.com
Luck gets the picture, and he threw for over 350, and Freeman had 15 tackles and 1.5 sacks, but neither wins RamView's POTG, and it sure as hell isn't going to He Who Shall Not Be Named. It goes to LT Anthony Castonzo. Luck had airtight protection all game. Castonzo was dominant on his side, blew open big holes in the running game, and had the best game I've seen him have as a pro.

Timely switch for RamView gets me the cover and the outright win; I missed the over/under because I didn't want to pull the trigger also switching that. I'm still very happy with 2-of-3 here.

I like Denver over the Colts next week because they should be able to generate a much better pass rush, and they'll still be able to cover Hilton. What's encouraging about Indy next week is how well their defense played and they'll be running into a Denver offense that's suffered an identity crisis ever since a certain St. Louis team beat them up in week 10. Think I'll be going for sucker cover bets on both the AFC games next weekend.

I said it about both of yesterday's losers, and the Bengals are in the same boat. They're already loaded for another deep run next season. Hitting the playoffs without your top two receivers and your top two LBs is a lot of bad luck. I tell them to add another speed receiver every year. Someone like that sure would have come in handy today. Also, maybe think like the Rams and overload on defensive line, really improve a pass rush that was kind of missing today. A nickel back under 50 years old would be good, too.

On to Dallas.

-$-

No comments: