Saturday, August 4, 2012

Updated rookie free agent odds

After a week of practice and today's team scrimmage, I thought I'd update the odds I put on the various rookie free agents' chances of making the roster. Unsurprisingly, many players have made big leaps, in both directions, from where I unscientifically rated them coming into camp:

Todd Anderson, 15%, down from 20%
I don't see that he's even getting on the field. May be injured.

Sammy Brown, 50% and holding
Has some flash as a pass rusher but must get serious about run

Jeremy Caldwell, 0%, down from 40%
Yeah, I know.

Jamie Childers, 40%, up from 25%
Athleticism shows and he's getting a good number of reps. Looking good for practice squad.

Matt Conrath, 90%, up from 55%
Getting a ton of work with the first unit. Hard to see him not making the main roster at this point.

Matt Daniels, 30%, down from 55%
Injury really hurt his chances. Can't get off bottom of depth chart and being outplayed by McLeod.

Austin Davis, 75%, up from 50%
Tom Brandstater's hardly even getting on the field.

Corey Harkey, 60%, up from 45%
Contributing in team drills. Looks good for the practice squad.

T-Bob Hebert, 20%, down from 40%.
Looks overwhelmed and the Rams have clearly better backup center and guard candidates.

Johnny Hekker, 95%, up from 90%
Not being challenged by Tom Malone at all. Looks at least as good as Donnie Jones did last year.

Alex Hoffman-Ellis, 70%, up from 60%
Excellent athleticism, playing 2nd-unit Mike and nickel LB and looks comfortable

Jamar Jarrett, 35%, up from 15%
Had excellent scrimmage today. Could compete with Scott Smith to steal a 5th DE spot on the roster.

Nick Johnson, 10% and holding
Might have to flash big in the first couple of games.

Noah Keller, 40% and holding
Hasn't gotten past 3rd unit, but has made some plays. Needs some big special teams play.

Joe Long, 60%, up from 40%
Should make practice squad from what I've seen, and could easily be outplaying Barry Richardson and Kevin Hughes by the end of camp.

Rodney McLeod, 65%, up from 45%
Think he's well ahead of Daniels for the last safety spot now, but I'm expecting the Rams to throw a wrench into the works here, pick up a veteran and defer McLeod to the PS.

Calvin Middleton, 30% and holding
Showing some ability but has a lot of good competition ahead of him. PS dark horse.

DeAngelo Peterson, 45% and holding
Camp reporters like him, but he really got injured at the wrong time. Probably him or Childers for a PS slot.

Quinton Pointer, 0.5%, down from 5%
Sadly, he is who I thought he was.

Nick Schwieger, 10% and holding
Getting no RB reps, will have to cut it as a returner, and isn't seeing much time there, either.

Scott Smith, 55%, up from 15%
Becoming dominant edge rusher against the scrub o-line. Based on this week, solid shot at the practice squad and could even sneak onto the main roster.

Travis Tripucka, 10%, down from 30%
Pretty much needs Jake McQuaide to get hurt, and even then, isn't consistent enough for a job that demands "five nines" quality.

-$-

Photo: St. Louis Rams

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