Thursday, March 8, 2012

Free agency preview: wide receiver


Wide receiver

Top 10 UFA WRs:
1 – Vincent Jackson: elite big man and field-stretcher the Rams desperately need, but his price could be way out of their range. And is still one misstep away from a one-year suspension by the league. (signed by Buccaneers 3/14)
2 - Pierre Garcon: just 25, his career is still peaking, and he knows he can get paid for it. Wants the 5 years, $35 million Stevie Johnson just got, at least. (signed by Redskins 3/14)
3 – Marques Colston: big target up for big bucks, but lacks elite speed and elite hands, and has had a lot of injuries. (re-signed by Saints)
4 - Brandon Lloyd: top-15 quality wide receiver with a flair for making tough catches. (signed by Patriots 3/20)
5 - Reggie Wayne: future Hall-of-Famer had 75 catches last year for a very bad team. Is likely to follow Peyton Manning to his next stop. (re-signed by Colts 3/14)
6 - Plaxico Burress: from prison to difficult-to-stop red zone target.
7 - Early Doucet: young, effective possession receiver with upside. (re-signed by Big Dead 3/21)
8 - Mario Manningham: Super Bowl hero definitely wants teams to pay him a Super Bowl premium. Is he worth it? (signed by 49ers)
9 - Robert Meachem: great speed and size, a big play waiting to happen. Also a dropped pass waiting to happen. (signed by Chargers 3/15)
10 – Laurent Freaking Robinson: 47 catches, 511 yards, 3 TDs in two years as a Ram; 54 catches, 858 yards, 11 TDs last year for Dallas. Maybe his broken leg from '09 really did take that long to heal. (signed by Jagwires 3/15)

Sleepers: Meachem doesn't have the world's greatest hands, but is a legitimate field-stretcher whom many scouts reportedly prefer to Colston. You'll get him a lot cheaper. Jackie Slater's son Matt is a lightly-used wide receiver but also a Pro Bowl special teams player. Of the many young third-WR types on this list, Harry Douglas was drafted by Les Snead and mainly lost his shot to be Atlanta's #2 (pre-Julio Jones) because he couldn't stay healthy. (all three were signed by 3/15)

Wild card: No wide receiver discussion is ever complete without mentioning Randy Moss. Moss reportedly had a super workout with the Saints last week. And though he stunk up the joint with the Titans two years ago, Jeff Fisher doesn't have a bad thing to say about him. That may not be rolling out the welcome mat, but it's not bolting the door shut, either.

Tag you're it: Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker. Mike Wallace is prominently mentioned as a target of the 49ers, but he is a restricted free agent. RFAs move so rarely I don't list them unless their team has already announced they're not going to be tendered, such as Kevin Ogletree.

Out of the running: Domenik Hixon (re-signed by Giants); Stevie Johnson (re-signed by Bills); Ruvell Freaking Martin (re-signed by Bills), Hines Ward (retired)

Voting present: Jacoby Jones (cut by Texans 5/2, signed by Ravens 5/9), Matt Slater (re-signed by Patriots 3/15), Ted Ginn Jr. (re-signed by 49ers 3/22), Harry Douglas (re-signed by Falcons), Andre Caldwell (signed by Broncos 3/21), Jabar Gaffney (cut by Redskins 5/1), Deion Branch (re-signed by Patriots 3/22), Patrick Crayton, Devin Thomas (signed by Bears 3/29), Eric Weems (signed by Bears 3/15), Eddie Royal (signed by Chargers 3/16), Chaz Schilens (signed by Jets 3/17), Josh Morgan, Donte Stallworth (signed by Patriots 3/20), Jerricho Cotchery (signed by Steelers 4/11), Courtney Roby (re-signed with Saints 4/16), Micheal Spurlock (signed by Chargers 4/7), Derek Hagan (re-signed by Bills 3/19), Kevin Ogletree (re-signed by Cowboys 3/21), Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Rashied Davis, Lee Evans (signing with Jagwires 4/16), Kassim Osgood (cut by Jagwires 3/13), Donnie Avery (signed by Colts 3/23), Greg Camarillo, Chansi Stuckey (cut 3/17); Maurice Stovall, Brett Swain (re-signed by 49ers 4/6), Jerheme Urban, David Anderson

The doctor will see you now: Mark Clayton, Michael Clayton, Anthony Gonzalez (signed by Patriots 3/17, cut by Patriots 5/29), Roscoe Parrish (signed by Chargers 4/3), Steve Smith (not the Carolina one, signed by Rams 3/26), Blair White (knee, cut by Colts 4/14)

Gawd no: Devin Aromashodu (re-signed by Vikings 3/24), Legedu Naanee (signed by Dolphins 4/17), Jerome Simpson (signed by Vikings 4/24). The first two are terrible pass-catchers; Aromashodu's catch rate last season was 33.3%. Simpson is getting two months in jail (cut back to 15 days) and at least four weeks from the league for marijuana possession. It just dawned on me that Mike Sims-Walker is also a free agent. It'd be a crime not to list him here as well.

RamView’s moves: The Ram receiving corps has been a disaster ever since the brilliant Linehan plan to replace Isaac Bruce with Drew Bennett. Even with Brandon Lloyd, last year's group was one of the worst in the league and needs drastic improvement in free agency, and the draft, this year. Period. They are not getting by with what they have.

Justin Blackmon is almost certainly going to be their first-round pick. They traded their 5th-round pick this year to get Brandon Lloyd, who stepped right in and was mostly effective. He would certainly thrive with Blackmon present to draw coverage away from him. But Lloyd could be a difficult sign. He'll want big money, but he's 31, and he'd probably rather go to New England and play for Josh McDaniels. If the Rams can get him for 3 years in the $12-15 million range, they'll have made a good deal. If they can't get him, they need to turn their focus quickly to someone like Meachem, with the inherent threat that he turns out to be Alvin Harper.

Healthy again, Danny Amendola, who lost all of last season to a dislocated elbow, should continue to thrive in the slot, especially with capable receivers around to leave him single-covered most of the time. Greg Salas, who should be back from a broken leg, looked like he was really catching on to that role last year. My preference is to keep him, though he has not been much of a special teams contributor.

Then there's Danario Alexander. I wish I could quit Danario Alexander. He's had major knee issues. He can't stay on the field consistently, drops too many passes, can't get open in the short area of the field. There's no way you can go into the season relying on him as the #2. But his ability to get deep and make the big play is still tantalizing. He should at least be in the mix for #2. I keep thinking the Rams should make him a tight end; he's a better blocker than any TE they had last year. But I doubt he could stand that pounding. He'll be risky enough to put on special teams, but he can contribute there.

Trying to keep several of last year's wideouts doesn't mean the Rams' turnover at the position won't be fierce. My assumption on Mark Clayton is that he is done. He'll be 30 and coming off two seasons lost to injury. Brandon Gibson's a try-hard guy but has had plenty of opportunity to prove he's more than just a guy. With Amendola back to return punts, I see little need to keep either of the league substance-rule violators. Certainly not Nick Miller. The funny thing, though, is that this year, there should be little risk in the Rams dropping Austin Pettis to the practice squad. Who'll want him? Except I don't think they can, so good-bye to one of Billy Devaney's bigger draft misses. Dominique Curry will be one of the trickier decisions in training camp. To me, he really needs to show progress as a receiver if he's going to tie up a roster spot. He will be cheap to keep, which is a consideration. For now, I'm going after a veteran like Michael Spurlock, with more receiving ability, and also kickoff-return ability, with Jerious Norwood not likely at all to be back.

Here's what I come up with:
WR1 - Blackmon
WR2 - free agent (Lloyd/Meachem)
WR3 - Amendola
WR4 - Salas
WR5 - Alexander
WR6 - free agent (Spurlock)

Shoot the moon: The only receivers I can justify spending big money on are Vincent Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Either would be incredible lined up with Blackmon on the other side and Amendola working the slot. Fisher should certainly be familiar with Garcon's ability. To make the offense exciting enough again to put a charge in the fan base, they almost have to make that kind of move. It's just an idea that'll never get off the drawing board, though.

Prediction: I don't fault him, but I don't think Lloyd's staying, and my guess is the Rams end up with Blackmon and a bunch of slot receivers. My gut feeling is also that Alexander's a coin flip at best. They'll expect a lot from Blackmon early, sign someone like Harry Douglas or Early Doucet to compete with Salas for #2, and use WR5 and WR6 on special teams, which could preserve spots for Pettis and Curry.

-$-

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