Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Free agency preview: quarterback

Let's see. RamView will be on vacation when free agency starts this year. That means I've got three days, several hundred NFL free agents to look up, at least twelve free agency previews to write, a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and I'm wearing sunglasses.

Hit it.


Quarterback

Top 10 UFA QBs:
1 - Alex Smith: nearly led 49ers to Super Bowl in his best season as a pro. (re-signed by 49ers 3/21)
2 - Matt Flynn: shows major upside by lighting up bad secondaries like Detroit's and New England's. What happens against good defenses? (signed by Seahawks 3/21)
3 - Chad Henne: did not turn out to be Miami's savior but there's a lot of places where he could push the current starter. (signed by Jagwires 3/15)
4 - Kyle Orton: not far off his career-high numbers in K.C. last year. Can still deliver if he can get settled in somewhere. (signed by Cowboys 3/15)
5 - Vince Young: two huge tasks for the inevitable coach who believes he can salvage VY: get his head on straight, cut down on the interceptions.(Signed by Bills, 5/11)
6 - Jason Campbell: it's never all going to come together for Campbell, but he's got good tools and could provide a spark off the bench. (signed by Bears 3/16)
7 - Luke McCown: savvy veteran with strong arm and excellent mobility.(signed by Saints, June)
8 - David Garrard: with his arm and mobility, hard to believe he won't get a chance in a training camp somewhere after Jack del Rio screwed him last September. (signed by Dolphins 3/20)
9 - Byron Leftwich: missed almost all of 2011 with a broken arm but is an established capable backup. (Re-signed by Steelers 4/30)
10 - Josh Johnson: only 25, strong-armed, mobile QB in an era that's evolving to favor his style of play. (Signed by 49ers 3/22)

Sleepers: I probably should flip Johnson and Young. Johnson's youth is definitely in his favor, and he's the mobile, strong-armed type of QB that the league is looking for more and more. I can see Seattle taking a good, hard look at him, or Philadelphia, to back up Michael Vick, or Denver, to back up Tim Tebow. Young has always had Pro Bowl potential, but a youth league head, and his expiration date might be about up. But picture him in Oakland as a cheap backup to push Carson Palmer. With little pressure on him at the beginning, maybe he steps right in at a high level when Palmer busts out of the league in October. Dennis Dixon's potential may have been drained by a career full of injuries, but look out if he can stay healthy somewhere.

Wild card: Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, how can Peyton Manning not be at the top of my list? Simply because I have no idea right now about the condition of his neck. If I could have waited 2-3 more weeks, I'd likely have Peyton on the top. Or on the doctor's list. We'll see if Miami or Washington take the plunge.

Tag you're it: Drew Brees

Out of the running: Kerry Collins (retired), Jake Delhomme (says he's likely to retire), Jon Kitna (retired), Chris Redman (re-signed with Falcons)

Voting present: Dennis Dixon, Kevin O'Connell, Sage Rosenfels (re-signed with Vikings, 3/14), Kellen Clemens (re-signed by Rams), Shaun Hill (re-signed by Lions 3/17), Billy Volek (cut by Chargers 3/17), Charlie Whitehurst (signed by Chargers 3/20), Josh McCown (re-signed by Bears 3/19), Drew Stanton (signed by Jets 3/17), Brady Quinn (signed by Chiefs 3/18), Caleb Hanie (signed by Broncos 3/24), Charlie Batch (re-signed by Steelers 4/17), Chris Griesen, A.J. Feeley, J.P. Losman, Mark Brunell, Jeff Garcia

Gawd no: Derek Anderson (signed by Panthers 3/20), Kyle Boller, David Carr (re-signed by Giants 3/17), Rex Grossman (re-signed by Redskins 3/21), Dan Orlovsky (signed by Buccaneers 3/15), Curtis Painter (cut by Colts 3/9, signed by Ravens 4/20), Troy Smith (cut by Steelers in late June), Matt Leinart (cut by Texans 3/13, signed by Raiders 5/2). I doubt any explanations are necessary here. 

RamView’s moves: The most sensible thing for the Rams to do at quarterback is to stay put. Sam Bradford is still the future of the franchise; Jeff Fisher and Les Snead came here thinking so. He's one of the biggest reasons they're in St. Louis. Let's get a better system and better players around Sam instead of doing something radical like starting over with Robert Griffin III, trading Sam and taking a monster salary cap hit. Stability also makes eminent sense at second-string. Kellen Clemens took less than a week here to show he can at least manage the offense. He's more durable, and better all-around, than A.J. Feeley, who I'd feel free to let go. Feeley at his best can be a manager of the offense but gets hurt almost instantly once you get him on the field. The Rams need better durability than that. Plus, Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has already worked with Clemens and likes him. There are many QBs out there better than Clemens, but Bradford doesn't need to be pushed; he needs a vet who'll have his back. I prefer to keep 3 QBs on the roster - the Rams did go through four last season - but cannot justify spending any draft pick on a backup QB given all the Rams' needs. The Rams can keep Tom Brandstater pretty cheaply, and he's got a decided experience advantage over any rookie you'd bring in. I'd keep him, and for camp competition, bring in a rookie free agent along the lines of G.J. Kinne (Tulsa) or Bo Levi Mitchell (E. Washington).

Shoot the moon: Between Steve McNair and Vince Young, Fisher's almost always had a mobile QB on his roster. That's not to say he was uncomfortable with pure dropback guys like Kerry Collins. But, if things fall through with Clemens, I can see the Rams going after someone like Luke McCown, who's provided a spark off the bench in several different places. I can't see the Rams drafting a QB, even with a late pick, but if someone like Austin Davis or Russell Wilson becomes a ridiculous value, I'd have a hard time complaining.

Prediction: Clemens puts a line out in the market, doesn't get many hits and stays with the good situation he should have here in St. Louis. The Rams stay with Brandstater as #3. Tweaking things at QB is just about the least of their many worries.

-$-

Free agent list from Pro Football Weekly, with cross-checking on Rotoworld and scouting assistance from SBNation and ProFootballReference.

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