Draft buzz, week 6

* The instability at pick #14 of the first round continues. First, Julio Jones sailed well out of the Rams' draft range at the Combine. That switched Rams Nation’s focus to Missouri DE Aldon Smith. But as Da’Quan Bowers’ stock has sunk like Enron’s, and 3-4 teams have pricked up their ears and gotten interested in (I believe misusing) Smith as an OLB, it’s looking harder and harder to see Smith getting past Houston and Minnesota. That switched focus, certainly RamView’s, to Illinois DT Corey Liuget. But with Nick Fairley’s stock wavering due to attitude and “one-year wonder” doubts, Liuget’s starting to climb boards, and a fair share of mock drafts now have him going to Minnesota. Chances are strengthening, then, that Rams Nation is going to find its three favorite prospects off the board if the Rams stay at #14.

Say, have y’all met Marvin Austin?

* Wisdom of Mike Mayock. The day Mike Lombardi said teams have now gone into “liar mode,” NFL Network’s lead draft analyst Mike Mayock went into idiot mode. He says something like this every year…

“I would rather draft Dante Moch in the 3rd round than Justin Houston or Akeem Ayers in the 1st.”

“I would rather draft Marcus Gilchrist in the 3rd-4th round than Rahim Moore in the 1st-2nd (Mayock Zone).”

“I would rather draft Danny Watkins in (the Mayock Zone) than Gabe Carimi or Nate Solder or Derek Sherrod earlier.”

Mayock drives me nuts with this nonsense. Why don’t you have the players you would “rather” draft RANKED HIGHER THAN THE OTHER PLAYERS THEN? Is Moch that underrated? Are Houston and Ayers overrated? What?

Mayock disappeared from the air shortly after this, so I would like to make it clear here that I had nothing to do with his disappearance. That I would admit to in court.

Position by position:

* Wide receiver. As mentioned in this spot earlier, Kenny Britt’s arrest in New Jersey – he apparently tried to evade police trying to pull him over for speeding – now adds Tennessee to the list of teams in the top ten that will be interested in Julio Jones. Oh well, the #8 jersey is taken here anyway. Jones won’t be able to practice full-speed until summer; medical re-check revealed his foot fracture was worse than Michael Crabtree’s last year. Among current players, Jones compares to Dwayne Bowe on the good side, Legedu Naanee on the bad side.

Mike Lombardi floated a theory that Carolina would draft A.J. Green first overall because he’s (supposedly) a can’t-miss player, which they want to make sure they get, but that theory sank faster than a Cam Newton 12-yard sideline pass, 5 rows into the seats. Charley Casserly called Green the 3rd-best WR prospect this decade, behind only Andre and Calvin Johnson. Then again, he ranked Dez Bryant AHEAD of Larry Fitzgerald. Note to self: do not trust Casserly’s judgment on wide receivers.

More prospects:

Randall Cobb – Strong inside receiver and fearless over the middle. Mayock upgraded him to a top five prospect. Can return kicks. Needs to improve route-running.

Jernell Jurnigan – Troy WR had a huge game against Ohio State, so he can perform on the big stage. All-conference receiver and returner. Handled a lot of bubble screens. Threat to score every time he gets the ball.

* Defensive line. Da’Quan Bowers’ medical re-check revealed his surgically-repaired knee swelled up after his workout and that he has arthritis in his knee that could necessitate future surgery. He has an old man’s knee in a young man’s body. His practice time may need to be carefully managed, and he could have just a 2-to-5 year career. Casserly says that drops Bowers completely out of the FIRST ROUND on some teams’ boards, certainly his. Questions about Bowers’ effort are starting to crop up, too.

Buffalo HC Chan Gailey loves him some Von Miller, calling him an extremely talented player with a knack for rushing the passer, with amazing speed, explosion and quickness.

Aldon Smith – one of the quickest pass rushers off the ball in this draft; could be a dominating RDE if he puts on another 15 pounds. As mentioned at the top, 3-4 teams really getting interested in him as an OLB.

Robert Quinn may not have that problem. 3-4 teams might see him as a rush LB, but he hasn’t looked comfortable there. He’s an ideal 4-3 end with natural pass rush ability and elite ability to get to the QB. Don’t mess with what’s working, people. Quinn’s quicker off the ball than Bowers and definitely ahead of him on draft boards now.

Allen Bailey – 6’3” 285 with a great physique, and can play inside and out. His problems are that he gets stuck on blocks and doesn’t have great instincts.

Bowers isn’t alone with injury issues on the defensive line. Steven Paea had knee issues from college resurface at the Senior Bowl that have dropped his stock. His practice schedule may have to be limited. Jabaal Sheard’s coming off elbow surgery. His Pitt teammate Greg Romeus tore his Achilles last season; teams will have to wait A YEAR on him.

NFL Net’s love for Cameron Heyward really started showing this week. The Ohio State 5-tech dominated Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl and should end up with a 3-4 team drafting in the Mayock Zone. They like Adrian Clayborn, too, a lot more than RamView does. Heyward’s draft status is not affected in their eyes by off-season Tommy John surgery, nor is Clayborn’s by the birth defect that crippled his right shoulder. Caucasians Ryan Kerrigan and Brooks Reed continue to be described as “underrated athletes” with “great motors,” players with “passion” and “effort.” Mayock did compare Kerrigan to Ray Edwards at one point, but they fixed that by comparing him to Mike Vrabel later. Reed was compared to, of course, Clay Matthews.

* Running backs. Mikel Leshoure’s stock continues to soar. Big, physical back with first-round ability who can knock people backwards. Had a number of long runs despite lack of great outside speed. Natural comparison: Steven Jackson.

Mark Ingram’s stock, not so much, with rumors of knee problems similar to Bowers’ making the rounds. “Arthritic changes” within his knee have reportedly knocked him off some teams’ first rounds. Hell, Mayock’s not sure he’s a first-round pick fully healthy, though I don’t know where that slam came from. Deep left field, that’s for sure. He says he’s not a special back defenses have to devote extra attention to, while simultaneously saying he could rack up 1,500 yards in an offensive system like Denver’s. WHICH IS IT?!?!?!?

Demarco Murray is the leading all-purpose yardage gainer in Oklahoma’s history, and, hint, hint, Rams, is currently working out with SAM BRADFORD. Models his game after LaDainian Tomlinson and describes himself as a big game player.

Delone Carter – highly productive when healthy. Better feet than expected for his size. Big back with small-back skills.

Casserly calls Jacquizz Rodgers the next Warrick Dunn. Cal’s defense couldn’t catch him. He can play Wildcat, is a good receiver, and as a runner, can make people miss and finishes his runs. Pac-10 Player of the Year as a freshman.

Path to the Draft teased Taiwan Jones’ workout for weeks, then can only report his official 40 time as being in the “4.35-4.45 range.” Oh, come on. Jones, like his non-relative Julio, ran that 40 with an unhealed fracture in his foot. He may also need elbow surgery. Jones is fast and plays fast, a darter who can find the seam, deadly weapon on draw plays. Has to be broken of habit to want to bounce every play outside. Catches well but has a long way to go on pass protection. Grades as a third-rounder.

* Linebacker. Bruce Carter won’t be able to work out before the draft and likely won’t be able to play to start the season; he could well miss the upcoming season completely. A shame, because had he not blown the ACL, the Rams would be considering him seriously at #14 right now. Natural 4-3 Will backer with special ability if you let him run to the football.

* Secondary. Aaron Williams doesn’t seem to hate the safety tag like most cornerback prospects do. His size and speed are better fits for safety, and his cornerback skills will benefit him at the safety position. He moves best in nickel, covering the slot, and has great range for covering the middle of the field. He can blitz, support the run, and make plays on the ball. A lot of versatility. Compares to Malcolm Jenkins.

Mayock says Jimmy Smith is clearly one of the top 3 corners in the draft, and a top TEN talent, but suggests Four Pillars teams won’t be able to take him. Teams are worried he’ll implode off the field, and the team that drafts him ought to be one with a veteran locker room and should manage him carefully. That sounds like Philadelphia to me. Smith’s reported personal motto, btw: “Live fast, die young.” Niiiiice.

Buster Skrine, Josh Thomas and Justin Rogers got brief mentions as sleeper picks at corner, mostly because they run fast.

* Tight end. The gap at tight end after Kyle Rudolph is huge because he’s about the only guy this year who can catch AND block. Some prospects behind him:

Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin – Receiving TE; catches well, less of a blocker. Good effort blocker with balance. Not a big guy, converted from WR at Wisconsin. Lacks good separation.

Rob Housler, Florida Atlantic – Runs good routes, can get downfield, catches well. Had big TD play against Texas. Needs a lot of work on blocking, as does Virgil Green of Nevada.

* Offensive line. Not much o-line talk this week. The NFL medical re-check revealed back, knee and foot “issues” for Anthony Costanzo, though nothing apparently serious. Tyron Smith is also flagged, for swelling in his surgically-repaired knee, but apparently nothing as serious as Bowers’ problems. This has still raised the question of whether or not he can participate in a full practice schedule. Rodney Hudson was praised again, for his quick hands – “gets his hands on you and it’s over” – and was compared favorably to Ryan Kalil.

* Quarterback. I don’t know when or how Path to the Draft decided that Christian Ponder vs. Andy Dalton was THE burning question of this year’s draft, but they sure can’t stop comparing the two in depth. I’ll spare a non-caring Rams Nation a ton of analysis and just say they rate Ponder as a 2nd-rounder, Dalton as a 3rd-rounder, although there appears to be little doubt Dalton actually won’t last past the Mayock Zone. Ponder gets the edge for experience in a pro-style offense. They both (wisely) get the edge over Jake Locker.

Charles Davis continues to beat the drum for Ryan Mallett going 12 to the Vikings or 15 to the Dolphins. For his part, Mallett says his (drug) record at Arkansas is clean, and he’s past talking about it. Kind of like Mark McGwire.

* More mockery. Not content to simply butcher the top ten in their mock drafts, the NFL Net analysts are now branching out into picks 11-20. Charley Casserly has Corey Liuget going to Minnesota at 12, but has Aldon Smith lasting to the Rams at 14. He dumps Bowers out of the top 20 due to the knee report but leaves Mark Ingram at 15. More to come next post.

* Around the league. Path to the Draft gets the top 5 on the clock, starting with the Big Dead and their website contributor Darren Urban. Urban believes Arizona would pass on Blaine Gabbert at #5 and take a defensive player, and mentions the answer to their QB situation would be… MARC BULGER. He’d take Von Miller if he falls to 5. RamView thinks the Big Dead, who managed to rank 18th in sacks last season while being one of the worst quarterbacked teams ever, would be nuts to pass on Gabbert at that spot.

Solomon Wilcots says Bengals GM Mike Brown will not trade Carson Palmer, not wanting to set a precedent of letting players dictate their own free agency with the retirement gambit. Then again, Palmer has earned some $75-odd million from the Bengals and could easily be ready to quit, and Wilcots takes him seriously, too. Marvin Lewis claims to like Cam Newton a lot, but Wilcots smells smoke there and has the Bengals going after one of the top defensive linemen. Lombardi thinks Cincy will go WR first, then QB early in the 2nd round.

Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com says they’re very confident that RYAN FITZPATRICK can lead them to the playoffs. Cam Newton has leadership ability, Blaine Gabbert would learn the offense quickly, but he has Buffalo's preferences as Marcel Dareus one, Von Miller two, and get a quarterback in the 2nd round.

I am telling you, the Rams’ first round pick is getting more and more valuable with all these teams thinking they’re going to get a QB in the 30s.

Brian Billick pops up out of nowhere to analyze the Broncos’ needs at #2. He earns a paycheck by saying they could use Miller or Dareus or Patrick Peterson, seemingly with an edge toward Miller, surprisingly. They have four picks in the top 100 and should use them all on defense.

Finally, it’s Carolina on the clock, and again we get a NFL Net guy for analysis instead of someone who covers the team closely. Steve Wyche calls for Cam Newton, a “dynamic” player with “sizzle” and “it” factor, unlike anybody the franchise has ever had at QB, someone who can put a face on the franchise. Blaine Gabbert would seem to be denied any of these traits due to his Caucasian-ness. In RamView’s opinion, Carolina can draft all the “sizzle” they like, but in Cam Newton, they’re more likely getting chopped liver than steak. Wyche also suggests the Panthers could get a SECOND round pick for Steve Smith. That weird sound you all might have heard several counties away was me scoffing. I’d give you a FIFTH rounder for Steve Smith, tops. The Panthers are also planning to move on without DeAngelo Williams. And, it would appear, a QB who can throw with any accuracy.

Off the clock:

Dallas is reportedly interested in Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith or Mike Pouncey in the 1st.

If the Jets trade up to draft a player, get that guy on your fantasy team pronto. They’ve gotten Darrell Revis, Mark Sanchez, David Harris, Dustin Keller and Shonn Greene all on trade-ups, a pretty damn impressive track record. OK, Greene sucked fantasy ass last year. Could be targeting Phil Taylor, Akeem Ayers or Allen Watkins this year.

New England will look for linemen, offensive or defensive, if they keep their picks.

It’s been four years since Philadelphia stayed put at their first-round pick. A trade up or down seems almost inevitable from them. Jimmy Smith could be a first-round target but they’re also looking at interior o-linemen. Mike Kafka will keep them from missing Kevin Kolb too much, as will the first-rounder in 2012 they’ll likely get for him.

Buzz is increasing that the Colts could indeed shock the world and take a QB in the first round as Peyton Manning’s heir. They’d bring him up slowly like Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit could try to trade up for a corner, targeting Prince Amukamara. They’re also not as pegged to taking a tackle in the first round as most mock drafts say they are/should be.

The Bears are looking for offensive line and 3-technique DT. Charles Davis says Marvin Austin would be perfect for them (Shhh!). Casserly says if they drafted Titus Young, he’d be the most talented WR they have.

The Packers will look for a LT, WR, bookend LB or DE. Names tossed out included Cameron Heyward, Mark Ingram and Derek Sherrod. The show started covering draft needs by division with the NFC North teams, but in classic Path to the Draft fashion, never followed up from there.

Where the lockout is concerned, teams won’t be able to negotiate with their draft picks until there is an agreement. About all they can do is bring them to town for their introductory press conference. Teams won’t be able to talk to any undrafted free agents, either, and anybody who gets caught recruiting UFAs to their team is supposedly going to get fired for it. (Guess that’s worse than public urination, then.)

* Notable workouts:

Whiners – Von Miller and Daniel Thomas
Browns – Von Miller, 2 days, Da’Quan Bowers, 2 days, A.J. Green, Jimmy Smith, and… Cam Newton?
Redskins – Mark Ingram, Cam Newton, Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith, Nate Solder, Tyron Smith
Dolphins – Ryan Mallett, 2 days, and Daniel Thomas
Saints – Jimmy Smith
Raiders – Jimmy Smith, Marcus Gilchrist
Bucs – Mark Ingram, Tyron Smith
Bengals – Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas
Broncos – Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Daniel Thomas
Titans – Von Miller, Jake Locker
Cowboys – Von Miller
Jets – Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith, Tyron Smith
Chargers – Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith
Falcons – Kyle Rudolph (really?) and Marcus Gilchrist
Vikings – Jake Locker.
Eagles – Daniel Thomas and JAKE LOCKER?!?!?!?
Patriots – Tyron Smith

* Wisdom of RamView. It’s getting clearer and clearer to the truly delusional person writing this that the NFL Network guys are taking cues from RamView. Mayock has dumped Torrey Smith to #5 in his WR rankings and bumped up Titus Young and Jonathan Baldwin. RamView makes little secret of not liking Smith’s prospects. Asked to name a surprise pick in the first round, Casserly says, Chicago drafting defense. Huh, RamView has Chicago drafting defense! RamView was well ahead of Path to the Draft on the Marvin Austin and Rodney Hudson bandwagons, and in calling Julio Jones a T.O. clone.

Call me, Stacey Dales!

* Bust factor. Path to the Draft did an unusually informative and insightful analysis of why wide receivers and defensive backs bust. WRs who bust tend to be the ones who can’t separate, haven’t been able to get open against tight coverage. Young receivers’ biggest struggle is beating consistent bump-and-run coverage, and having size can work against them there, because they’re a bigger target to hit and re-route.

A DB will struggle early until he realizes he’s going to get beaten in the pros a lot more often than he did in college, and he’ll struggle until he falls back on good technique. New DBs have to learn veteran WRs’ moves, and use good technique against them. Receivers will use a DB’s athleticism against him otherwise and get him moving in the wrong direction.

Good stuff from this show, for a change.

* Crystal football. Casserly revived Johnny Carson’s old “Carnak the Magnificent” bit and predicted what past pro certain draft prospects will be the most like in 5 years. His choices:

Cam Newton: Vince Young. (RamView sticks with Daunte Culpepper)
Ryan Mallett: Jeff George. (RamView: Scott Mitchell)
Jake Locker: Kyle Boller. (RamView: Nice pick, Charnak. I’ll have to settle for Brodie Croyle)

This was good stuff, too, btw. Free “Charnak!”

Casserly also predicted in a separate segment that Mikel Leshoure would be drafted before Mark Ingram.

Mayock predicted the “big surprise” of the first round would be that the Eagles stay put at #23. Once again, I had nothing to do with his disappearance.

RamView thinks we’ll all be surprised how high Marvin Austin is drafted.

How about #14?

-$-