* Bad omens. It’s only 9 a.m., eight hours before the draft, and already NFL.com is performing like crap. It’s OK, guys, I’m sure nobody’s going to be hitting your website tonight or anything. Also, reverse congratulations to Peyton Hillis, who, of all people, has been voted to be this year’s Madden Football cover boy, and therefore, Madden Jinx recipient. Hillis getting the Madden Jinx has to kill Pat Shurmur, whose offense is likely going to rely on slamming him straight up the middle into stacked defenses 25 times a game.
* The big reveal. I believe it was the great Roddy Piper who said, “Just when you think know the answers, I change the questions.” Mike Mayock, I believe the first person ever to have a 30-minute televised special devoted to his mock draft, did that to yours truly on NFL Network last night, mock-drafting Corey Liuget to the Rams with Cameron Jordan still on the board. (Aldon Smith, and of course the top two WRs, were already off.)
Mayock said he loves Liuget, a prototype 3-technique, who gets up the field, has discipline to stop the run, and is a winner. The Rams have a “huge” defensive line need because Fred Robbins just turned 34. I’m fine with the Rams picking Liuget, but I thought Jordan was this all-world lineman who could play anywhere and fit in any system, and I know he’s a better athlete than most of the first-round DE prospects. No, when Mayock projected Jordan to New England, he called him the best 3-4 5-technique in the draft and gave no hint the guy even could play in a 4-3. So now I’m as confused as ever. Liuget? Jordan? Jordan? Liuget? Bueller? Anybody?
Other interesting entries in the Mayock mock:
Arizona by-passing Blaine Gabbert at 5 to take Patrick Peterson (Gabbert goes to the Whiners at 7), which in Mayock’s eyes makes the Big Dead THE FAVORITES in the NFC West, assuming they pick up a free agent QB.
Prince Amukamara to Washington at 10 with all kinds of defensive linemen on the board. Mayock says their secondary's getting old.
Robert Quinn, who sounds like a terrible 3-4 OLB prospect, to Houston at 11 instead of Aldon Smith, who went 12th.
Mayock’s boy Anthony Costanzo to Detroit at 13. That explosion you heard was the TV in Brian Baldinger’s dressing room.
JAKE LOCKER OF COURSE being drafted in the first round, at 28, and Andy Dalton going 32nd, ahead of Christian Ponder. (Both on projected trades, but not projected teams.)
And NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Marvin Austin to Seattle NOOOOOOOOOOO
* Labor pains. I really need "NFL Lockout for Dummies”. Here’s what I think happened yesterday. Judge Nelson refused to grant the owners their requested stay of her order to lift the lockout, saying the owners haven’t proven they would be irreparably harmed. So it’s supposed to be business as usual while the two sides try to work out a new agreement. Nelson kicked the can back to the league as far as deciding what business as usual really means, making a cutesy remark that league business can resume whenever the owners decide, as long as they don't violate antitrust law. That’s as confusing as a David Lynch movie; I thought the NFL was exempt from antitrust law.
The owners will appeal Nelson’s decision – hey! – right here in St. Louis, in the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. The way NFL Network’s legal correspondent (there’s a sign of the apocalypse right there, the NFL Network needs legal correspondents) put it, if the 8th Circuit rules against the owners, the league year HAS to start, meaning free agency, trades, etc. are all in play, at least until the time the league has its case for reinstating the lockout heard. There therefore could be a 6-7 week “league year” while the case is waiting to be heard. The players have requested the owners file a BILLION dollar bond to stay the order, btw.
Like Charlie Casserly said, chaos.
* Team rumors. Path to the Draft discovered a couple of other teams in the league besides Dallas and New England, but not many.
Carolina – Still on course to take Cam Newton at #1. Mayock points out that Newton’s scrambling ability should help the Panther running game, as he’ll force weakside defenders to stay home.
Denver – Really, really, really likes Von Miller at #2. The lovely reporter reporting on “Broncos Cam” even indicated Miller can play all FOUR downs. What, he punts? Jamie Dukes argued that Miller would be a poor fit for Denver’s new system and that they need the big man, Marcel Dareus.
Buffalo – Go Fitz! QB’s not likely in the cards at #3. Dareus would be an insta-pick. Their next preferences are Miller, then Peterson, though the LSU CB is making a move. Dukes then steals from my mock draft, saying Buffalo would be unwise to pass on Gabbert for the same reason I thought they should take A.J. Green. They need to inject some excitement into their franchise.
Cincinnati – likely still looking at A.J. Green, then Dalton or Ponder in the 2nd round, though good luck getting either to fall that far with the air filled with the scent of panic from teams that don’t have a decent QB.
I say this will go either one of two ways. Either there will be no flurry of QBs at all and Cincy gets Ryan Mallett, or they’ll make make Colin Kaepernick the SEVENTH QB off the board at #35.
Arizona – HC Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t come across as being very enthusiastic about the possibility of drafting Gabbert, saying there’s not as much tape on him as there was of Sam Bradford. HUH? Sounds like they’re homing in on Patrick Peterson. Mike Lombardi’s scoop is that they want to trade down if they can’t get Von Miller or- A.J. Green? Who’s supposed to be throwing for the Big Dead next year?
You guessed it… Lombardi says, MARC BULGER.
And in disturbing news, I don’t know how it happened, but Randy Moss has turned into an old white guy. At least that explains why his career declined so rapidly the last two years.
Tennessee – still believed to have serious interest in Jake Locker at #8. Casserly now says he’ll be shocked if Locker lasts past #12, a notion he called “an Inspector Gadget reach” JUST LAST NIGHT. A second after that, he joked that his predictions are as accurate as Locker’s arm. Hoo boy.
Of course this show can’t go five minutes without talking about Dallas – HC Jason Garrett says he doesn’t want to be pigeonholed by needs, and wants to draft on talent. Oh, shut up, you’re going to take whoever Jerry wants to jam up your ass. More telegraphing from the Cowboys about trading down because they don’t have to be at #9 to get a decent OT or 5-technique.
Washington – ton of options for Shanahan, the latest rumor being a trade up to #2 to take Gabbert. Shanahan is staying very tight-lipped. Casserly thinks Washington may be the team that takes Cameron Jordan, who’d be a perfect fit there.
Miami – still believed to have serious interest in Ryan Mallett. Dukes adds to the speculation that somebody’s going to trade into the top ten to take him.
* Player rumors.
Late risers – Rob Housler, Florida Atlantic. 4.5 40, vertical threat at TE whose workout went so well it jumped him from about the 5th round to the late 2nd-early 3rd.
Brooks Reed – Clay Matthews-lite pass rusher with a Caucasian motor, still expected to go somewhere in the Mayock Zone.
Late fallers – Marcus Cannon, who was just diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but has an 80-90% chance for a full recovery; Da’Quan Bowers and Mark Ingram for their infamous knee problems. The declining importance of RBs in a pass-first league is also holding Ingram down. Adrian Clayborn, a former top-15 prospect, has fallen into the early 2nd round. Casserly teased for an upcoming show that Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn could fall out of the top ten, but left it at that.
* Playing the percentages. Casserly calls this year’s draft one of the weakest he has EVER seen. These are the historical success rates for drafting starters by round:
1st – 75%
2nd – 50%. Casserly says he’ll be shocked if this year’s 2nd round does this well.
3rd – 30%
4th – 25%
5th – 25%
6th-7th – 9%
Casserly uses these low success rates to make the case for trading picks away. The success rates in rounds 3-5 may also shoot a hole in the theory that teams can pick up starting RBs in those rounds this year. Most starters are first rounders.
So after eight weeks of draft coverage, NFL Network tells us most draft picks are essentially useless.
Think I’ll watch tonight anyway.
-$-
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