Friday, February 13, 2009

FA running back preview

UFA RBs as of 02/13/2009 (from kffl.com)
RamView's Top 5 RBs: 1 - Brandon Jacobs 2 - Derrick Ward 3 - Darren Sproles 4 - Correll Buckhalter 5 - Dominic Rhodes
Fullbacks: 1 - Leonard Weaver 2 - Terrelle Smith 3 - Heath Evans 4 - Lorenzo Neal 5 - Tony Richardson

Sleeper: J.J. Arrington

Gawd No: Ahman Green, RICHARD OWENS

Rams FAs: Travis Minor is a UFA. Samkon Gado signed a 1-year deal January 29.

Rams analysis: Steven Jackson is supposed to be the man the Ram offense revolves around, but since his monster 2006 season, he has disappointingly fit the NFL's definition of a non-durable good. He broke 1,000 yards rushing in 2007 and 2008, but also missed four full games each year. The Rams went 0-8 in those games, by the way. The Rams need Jackson to be able to stay on the field, but can't trust him to do it. Truly the horns of a dilemma, which the Rams make, well, hornier, by, as at QB, failing to have capable backups. There's no true RB2 to spell Jackson or fill his shoes when he's injured. Antonio Pittman never got untracked after starting last season injured. His speed never seems to translate to rushing success on a consistent basis, he drops WAY too many passes, and he got in trouble for skipping a practice late last season. Brian Leonard's career peaked when he leaped over that Raider in preseason his rookie year. Since then he's proven too slow-footed to take the load from Jackson and too small to be an effective NFL fullback, while incredibly proving even less durable than Jackson. At least Kenneth Darby looked like a "keeper" down the stretch in 2008 as an effective receiver and an elusive inside runner. He fumbled the ball WAY too much, though. The Rams' clear needs at RB are to come up with a real fullback and a RB2 who can credibly spell Jackson during games and step in as a part-time starter those weeks Steven is inevitably injured.

Viewing the field: No doubt the Giants have big decisions to make this offseason. Jacobs pounded for 5 yards a rush last year, scored 15 TDs, and ran for 1,089 yards. And he almost wasn't the best RB on the team, as Ward also ran for over 1,000 yards on a ridiculous 5.6 yards a carry, and 9.4 a reception on top of that. Both RBs are in their primes: Jacobs is 26, Ward's 28. Can the Giants possibly afford to keep both? San Diego has a similar dilemma. They're paying LaDainian Tomlinson a lot, but he's hitting the dreaded 30-year-old mark and is showing a lot of wear and tear. What do they do with Sproles? He's coming off his best season and is in line for big bucks, but at 5'6", 181, should he be considered anything other than a change of pace to a physical RB? He did have over 100 combined yards in San Diego's last three games, all of which were win-or-go-home. Buckhalter and Rhodes have both been effective in supporting roles, but both are over 30. Buckhalter's missed three full seasons his career with injuries, and Rhodes has a substance abuse policy suspension on his record. Since I'm picking lots of holes in my top 5, you can see I don't care a lot for the depth of this FA class at RB. The Rams can definitely pass on Green, who's lost all the speed of his early career but kept the propensity to fumble. I locked onto Aaron Stecker early on as a cheap fill-in, but he missed almost all of last year with a hamstring injury. A possible diamond in the rough is Arrington, who's young and talented enough to make you wonder how he'd fare behind a better offensive line on a team much more dedicated to the run. His special teams experience gives him additional value.

At fullback, Neal and Richardson are oldies-but-goodies, though the unfortunate emphasis is on OLD. The Cardinals' Smith reminds me a lot of James Hodgins. Weaver is a punishing blocker, an effective offensive weapon with 4.4 career yards per rush and 9.1 a catch, and he's only 26. As for Owens, one can only assume he's already shopping for homes in the Detroit metropolitan area.

RamView's move: If I could trust Buckhalter's or Stecker's health, I might make a move for one of those guys. But the last thing the Rams need to add to their RB corps is more guys who can't stay on the field. I support the move the Rams are rumored to be considering strongly here...

What the Rams could do: which is to make a play for Weaver. He gives them a true fullback, which they obviously don't have, with skills as a runner and receiver on top of it. He'd be their main fullback and #2 RB. Spagnuolo obviously knows the value of having a RB like Ward, but the big money he'll be looking for won't be a good deal for a 28-year old who wouldn't be the starter here. There aren't any draft prospects who excite me. The Rams would have to have someone fall to them in the later rounds to really justify taking a back from a fairly weak class.

Prediction: The Rams sign Weaver and keep Darby as the 3rd-down back. No way Spagnuolo is getting rid of a Rutgers guy, so Leonard will stay. He'll likely be a better special teams player than either Pittman or Gado. Pittman has the talent to stay around, but I suspect his attitude gets him run out of camp. Minor will find another home somewhere as a special teams specialist.

More FA RB previews: Nick Wagoner

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