Tuesday, February 24, 2009

FA defensive line preview

UFA DL as of 02/24/2009 (from kffl.com)
RamView's Top 5 DEs: 1 - Bertran Berry 2 - Igor Olshansky 3 - Chauncy Davis 4 - Ebenezer Ekuban 5 - Kalimba Edwards
Top 5 DTs: 1 - Albert Haynesworth 2 - Antonio Smith 3 - Rocky Bernard 4 - Colin Cole 5 - Jonathan Babineaux

Sleepers: Davis, Cole

Gawd No: John Engelberger, Jimmy Kennedy

Rams FAs: Victor Adeyanju is a restricted free agent, while Eric Moore is unrestricted. La'Roi Glover is unrestricted from retiring.

Rams analysis: The Rams have to do SOMETHING with this defensive line, don't they? They were 29th in the NFL against the run, allowing over 150 yards a game, while tying for 16th in the league in sacks with 30. The sack total sounds a lot more respectable than the Rams' pass rush was. Leonard Little, who the team has announced will be back in 2009, played hurt all season and nearly led the team in sacks, with 6. James Hall, whose bad play far surpasses his bursts of good play, led the Rams with 6.5. Chris Long had 4 before appearing to hit the rookie wall late in the season, though the #2 overall pick from last year has plenty of promise and should pick up some of his teammates' slack this year. Victor Adeyanju posed no threat as a pass rusher despite playing a lot, while a serviceable-at-best run defender. Moore and C.J. Ah You round out the DEs for now, though neither has been a factor in the regular season. They figure to be victims of a thorough renovation of the defensive line by Steve Spagnuolo. In the middle, that probably means the end of the road for La'Roi Glover, although that leaves naught but training camp scrubs behind Adam Carriker and Cliff Ryan, and they need help. Carriker in particular got pushed around the whole of last season. And a team that gave up so many yards on the ground definitely needs a dominating presence in the middle.

Viewing the field: Haynesworth is the premier free agent lineman available. The dominating Titans tackle had more sacks last year with 8.5 than any other FA lineman. You could argue three things very successfully about Haynesworth: 1 - he may well have been the NFL MVP last year; 2 - he may well transform any defense he goes to, including the Rams', into a very good one; and 3 - with Pace and Holt likely off the payroll, the Rams can afford him. I'm not sure I'm buying, though. His reputation is that he'll put it in cruise control once he gets the big money. And he wants enough to buy a small nation. The Rams have played Arizona enough times to know what a pain in the ass Antonio Smith is. He's the kind of player you love, when he's on your team. He's 28 and peaking, with 80+ tackles and 9 sacks the last two years. Smith's overlooked by the general football public as a playmaker and would look great here in Glover's spot. As far as big, sloppy run-stoppers, the Rams could go after Grady Jackson, the very definition of big and sloppy, or look to others younger than the 36-year-old planetoid. Green Bay's switching to the 3-4 and are said to believe 6'1", 330-lb 29-year-older Colin Cole isn't what they're looking for at nose tackle. Cole's a lunch-bucket guy who was buried in the Packer d-line rotation till last year. He pushed the pocket well enough for a career-high 11.5 QB pressures, and he's big and physical unlike anyone the Rams have up front. Bernard is smaller by 20 pounds but has better potential to get to the QB while coming off a career high season with 55 tackles. He's another pain in the ass the Rams would love not to face twice a year, but he's also got a strike from the league (and society) for a domestic violence incident last April. Babineaux is smaller than what the Rams would be looking for at 6'2" 284, but he's just 27 and is still peaking as a playmaker and a pass rusher. Kennedy certainly has the size the Rams need in the middle, if only he could play.

As in most years, the UFA market at defensive end isn't going to yield an elite pass rusher. There's no DE on this year's list who had more than five sacks last year. Then again, that would have been good for third on the Rams. Berry is the elite pass rusher of this group, with threatening speed off the edge even at age 34, but he's nothing a healthy Little couldn't be. Olshansky's one of the league's strongest players and has been a dominant run-stopper but is strictly a 3-4 DE. Davis didn't get onto the field as much as Jamaal Anderson in Atlanta but has been a more productive player. His 4 sacks and 38 tackles last year were career highs. He also recovered three fumbles, and posed a good enough pass rush risk to take offensive attention away from John Abraham. Davis is only 26 and may just reach his real peak with his next team. Ekuban has averaged 6 sacks a season since 2004 but his tackle totals are dropping steadily. Edwards has always weirdly intrigued me, though he was a draft bust for Detroit. He's still young at 29 and had a career-high 48 tackles and near-CH 5 sacks for Oakland last year. And it won't cost a thing to pick him up; he is a free agent in the same way Jim Haslett is right now. Unemployed. The Raiders cut him to make room for Nnamdi Asomugha's ridiculous contract. Engelberger used to haunt the Rams a lot, but he's 32, maybe 260, and has 3 sacks since 2005. Don't be fooled by the past there.

RamView's moves: They've gotta get pass rushers on the edge and run stuffers in the middle. RamView would go after Chauncey Davis. He'll be an overall improvement over Hall: younger and around the ball more. Statistically, you could consider Hall a legitimate pass-rusher. I tend not to consider him legitimate at much of anything. Edwards can come in for you off the waiver wire and contribute just as much statistically as Hall as a 4th DE. I'd also go full-bore after Antonio Smith. He'd be perfect in the Glover role and you'd weaken a division rival without hiring a woman-beater like Bernard. Arizona got rid of their DC, so Smith might be more amenable to a move. That still leaves a need for Mr. Big and Sloppy, and since I'm going offensive line 1-2, he'll need to be a free agent as well.

RamView's 2009 defensive line:
DE: Little, Long, Chauncey Davis, Kalimba Edwards vs. Adeyanju in training camp for DE4
DT: Antonio Smith, Ryan, Carriker, Colin Cole

What the Rams could do: B.J. Raji of Boston College is becoming an increasing factor in the Rams' thought process for the #2 pick overall, not only because he's a needed big run stopper, but because Spagnuolo comes from a franchise that's had great success with B.C.'s players. Right now, though, it looks like they are hurting far too much on the offensive line to address the defensive line that early. Don't look for former Spagnuolo players to be factors, either. The main one available is William Joseph, who's a stiff. With a lot of money available with the presumed cuts of Pace and Holt to come, though, they HAVE to come away with veterans to work into the mix at DE and DT right away.

Prediction: If I'm right that Davis is worth going after, former Falcon assistant GM Billy Devaney will do it. So I'll predict myself to be right. :) But they'll also keep Hall and try moving Adeyanju inside. And if they sign a free-agent center as I've predicted, they're free to take Raji's DT partner Ron Brace with their second-round pick. And yep, he's big and sloppy.

Rams projection:
DE: Little, Long, Hall, Davis
DT: Ryan, Carriker, Brace, Adeyanju

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