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| ESPN.com / Getty |
Today's bad gambling advice: I ultimately don't like Aaron Rodgers' chances if he can't move, not with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril coming after him. The Packer offense labored against Dallas last week with Jordy Nelson contributing very little. Now they're on the road, against a tougher defense, and assuming Nelson draws Richard Sherman in coverage all day, I wouldn't count on much from him, either. The Packers do have the weapons to get it done. Carolina ran on Seattle last week, so Eddie Lacy sure can. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will have to be key contributors again. Seattle dominated the first meeting back on opening night, but I don't expect the same thing here. For one, you can remove 100 yards of Percy Harvin total offense from the first meeting. The Packer offensive line should be more settled than it was opening night, though the 12th Man will surely make it hard to run their offense. And, for world champs, the Seahawks will let you stay in a game, at least until the 4th quarter. The 12th Man was booing their team early in last week's game.
My script has the Packers carrying a surprising lead into the 4th until Russell Wilson bails Seattle out with another legendary comeback. No Fail Mary this time, though, please. Seattle wins, Green Bay covers the silly-high 8.5, and I'm finally resorting to reverse psychology and going with the over (45) despite Seattle's defensive reputation. Place your bets accordingly. Seattle 28, Green Bay 24
Joe and Troy calling the game for Fox, with Tony Corrente officiating a conference championship for the second straight year.
FIRST QUARTER
Seahawks won the toss and deferred. We appear to have a little rain and gusting winds as Aaron Rodgers pilots the Packers from their 20. Michael Bennett nearly gets to him on first down - and Rodgers is rooted in the pocket like a post - and Rodgers settles for a 3-yard pass to John KUUUHN outside. Kevin Williams stuffs Eddie Lacy on 2nd down. 3rd-7, Bennett jumps offside. Lacy converts 3rd down easily, going off the left side for 13 while Bruce Irvin brutally overshoots the play. Lacy goes left again for a couple. Hurry-up offense for Green Bay caught an extra Seahawk on the field. Put the Packers at midfield. Nice catch by Davante Adams on a quick slant for 6 and a 1st. Rodgers threw that way behind him. Randall Cobb gets 13 out of a quick out from the slot. Corrente calls hands to the face on Cliff Avril, which gets a HUGE negative reaction from the home crowd. I have no idea why. Maybe they were expecting a pick call, but there was no pick. Packers at the SEA30. Rodgers goes after Richard Sherman with a quick slant to Adams, threw it away, and Sherman of course makes sure to let the world hear about it. Byron Maxwell is in the lineup this week, which I find out when he blankets Nelson on a long sideline streak. 3rd-10. Irvin almost gets there on a 3-man rush. Rodgers looks pretty nimble in the pocket, maybe not as much mentally, though, as he goes after Sherman in the end zone, but Sherman undercuts Adams' route perfectly and picks it off. And the asshole makes sure to yell in Adams' earhole about THAT. How 'bout a taunting penalty for some of this B.S.? Great play by Sherman, dumb play by Rodgers to end a promising drive. Don't know if they would have tried for a 47-yard FG; Fox needs to give us a better idea about the wind conditions.
From the 20, Marshawn Lynch, offset right, gains a couple. Seattle tries a tricky screen on 2nd down but Clay Matthews covers Lynch perfectly and forces Russell Wilson to chuck it out of bounds.
And, on 3rd, down, HA-HA! A perfect slant pass goes off Jermaine Kearse's hands, bounces high and goes into Hasean Clinton-Dix's for a near-pick-six. The Packers will take over inside the Seattle five. Woof about that, Sherman.
Oh, BULLSHIT. A Packer d-lineman got into a Seattle o-lineman's face out of bounds after the play, and NOW the ref is throwing taunting flags. You could have flagged Sherman twice already. You should have flagged Sherman twice already. The Packers are playing 11-on-18.
The Packers start at the Seattle 19 by... calling timeout. Quick pass to Richard Rodgers, wide open over the middle, gets them to the 7. Aikman takes the words out of my mouth about Seattle giving up plays to tight ends. Lacy cuts back and churns down to the 1. Green Bay goes jumbo and sends KUUUHN right up the middle. It's initially called a TD, but he got undercut and Bobby Wagner stopped him inside the 1. Corrente changes the call and it's 3rd-and-goal. And, wow. Lacy appears to have a big hole off the left side, but somebody called Brock Coyle fired in and put a shoulder on him, along with Earl Thomas. That play lost yardage. Green Bay meekly brings in the field goal unit after letting Brock F. Coyle stop them on the goal line. That's not exactly Seattle beating you with their best guy, you know. 3-0 Packers I'll call it now; congratulations to the Seahawks on their second straight Super Bowl trip.
OR NOT. Doug Baldwin returns the kick from deep in his end zone and Brad Jones knocks it out of his hand across the 20. GREEN BAY BALL. Worth noting that Paul Richardson, the regular KR, tore his ACL last week.
Seattle has almost as many turnovers right now as offensive plays. Lacy can't find running room right until Corey Linsley opens up a big hole with a late push, and ends up getting 7. Linsley and Josh Sitton open up a big hole on the left side to get Lacy another 9, down to the 7. Tony McDaniel stuffs Lacy up the middle on 1st-goal. Nelson gets open on an out route in the end zone but can only get one hand on a barely-overthrown pass. 3rd-goal. Quick slant to Cobb is stopped by Sherman and Cobb at the 2, and of course, this is MUCH FARTHER OUT than the last 4th down, so here comes Mason Crosby again. 6-0 Packers The Seahawks are behind 6 points, getting dominated, are treating the ball like it's a takeout container and they still have to feel like they're winning.
Lynch cuts back left for 3 on 1st down, but Julius Peppers tosses the right tackle like he's, well, a takeout container, and sacks Wilson for a small loss. Who is Alvin Bailey, and what is he doing at RT in the NFC Championship? NOW I see that Justin Britt is inactive with a knee injury, sorry. Um, Green Bay's going to win that matchup every play. Bailey gets chip block help from Luke Willson on 3rd down, but Wilson well overthrows Willson on the leakout. 123-kick, with a sack, two turnovers, not exactly an inspiring start by the favorites. Two straight plays, Julius Peppers, who turns 35 today, put a Seahawk lineman on his back.
Green Bay tries to muff the punt away but keeps it at their 44. Rodgers hits Nelson on the sideline for 15, but Nelson drops a comeback the next play. Maxwell should have gotten any number of penalties that play: facemask, illegal hands to face, illegal contact... got nothing. Lacy pounds out 9, though, behind strong downblocking and Kam Chancellor whiffing. 3rd-and-a-half-yard, so the Packers will have to gain at least a foot for Mike McCarthy to even consider going for it. KUUUHN gets the 1st down up the middle on an inside handoff. Rodgers-to-Rodgers beats a blitz for another 11 up the middle. Lacy does well to get 5 on a draw Demarcus Dobbs had pretty clogged up.
On the last play of the quarter, O'Brien Schofield jumped offside, and Rodgers pounced on the free play opportunity for a 13-yard TD in the back of the end zone to Cobb. Sherman may be good, but he can't cover two guys; crossing routes got two DBs to run into each other at the goal line to free Cobb up. Packers 13-0
After one, Green Bay has held the ball roughly 13 minutes to Seattle's two, outgained them roughly 120 yards to 3, and Rodgers' calf injury is barely slowing him at all this week. I still say Seattle's not dead until the 4th quarter, but they'd better get on the stick a little here.
SECOND QUARTER
Hey, now Sherman's yelling at his own guys on the sideline. There's karma for ya. And now Seattle false starts. Lynch gets out on the left wing but Micah Hyde makes an open-field stop for 4. Lynch cuts back for another 4; Packers appeared to have a blitz on. Seattle HAD to have this 3rd-and-7, but he throws too high for Baldwin on the sideline and they're 1-2-3-kicking again, to a smattering of BOOS from those great, loyal, not at all front-runner bandwagon fans at Randomly-Named Telecommunications Company Field.
Hyde returns a bad Jon Ryan punt 30 yards with almost no resistance, and we're looking at a serious beating. I'm talking Mike Tyson vs. Stephen Hawking. Seattle has flatout not shown up for the biggest game of their season in any phase of the game.
Packers at the SEA33. Rodgers gets FOREVER off play-action but Lacy drops a goofy 2-foot dumpoff attempt. Now it's McDaniel jumping offside. This is a very Sack City game Seattle is having. Michael Bennett jumps a handoff to Lacy for a big loss, though. 3rd-8, Brian Bulaga false starts. 3rd-13, Rodgers again gets all day, bypasses Lacy all alone in the flat but gets Cobb all alone over the middle inside the 20. Except he drops it. Except Cliff Avril gets his SECOND illegal hands flag for forearming Bulaga in the throat. First down, Packers. Seattle may have more penalties than total yards. They do hold Lacy on 3rd-and-2 to send Crosby back out. 16-0 Packers It's going to be time to quit wondering if it's hurting Green Bay to settle for all these FGs soon.
Wilson still looking for his first 1st down. The sun has come out; is that a good omen for Seattle?
HA-HA! NO! Wilson throws a simply dumb deep ball - his receiver was double-covered and not remotely open - and Clinton-Dix makes a one-handed over-the-shoulder catch for Seattle's THIRD turnover. Wilson took a pretty good knock during the return, too.
Packers at the SEA33 AGAIN. No, the GB44. Somehow I saw only the first part of the hit on Wilson and not the part where Clay Matthews drilled him helmet-to-helmet. Also, Earl Thomas is out of the game at last word. Other than all that, the Seahawks are having a great game!
Russell Wilson is 0-for-5 for 0 yards with 2 interceptions. Does the NFL give out negative QB ratings?
Slant to Nelson for 23 puts the ball, guess where, the SEA33. Now it's raining pretty good, and maybe that's the omen Rain City needed. Rodgers and Nelson don't appear to be on the same page the next play and Rodgers throws right to Maxwell for an INT.
Lynch bangs for 4 on an handoff Wilson barely got off. He's lucky to get another 4 up the middle after Datone Jones blew up the pocket initially. And, ALERT THE MEDIA! FIRST DOWN SEATTLE! Lynch cruises for 14 off Russell Okung's block at LT. Ball at the GB38. Another sloppy handoff, but Robert Turbin gets 5 after surviving a bobble. Ricardo Lockette gets 4 on an end-around that Matthews should have stopped for a ten-yard loss. Another terrible snap and near-blown handoff don't stop Lynch from grinding out a yard for another 1st. The rain is gone, but Earl Thomas is back. Another incomplete makes Wilson 0-for-6, then Turbin goes left for 3. I have no clue why Green Bay's blitzing on 3rd-down, but Wilson hits Lockette at the GB20 for his FIRST completion. Wilson scrambles for a couple. Lynch up the middle, but Josh Boyd and Mike Daniels are having none of it. 3rd-and-long for Seattle at the 2:00 warning.
Everyone please go vote for Philip Rivers for the Never Say Never Moment of the Year. Damned if I want the Rams giving that one up.
Wilson needs a Never Say Never Moment, but after the warning, it's another Never Do That, Moron, Moment, a throw for Kearse at the pylon when he's completely blanketed by Sam Shields, who plays it like a back-shoulder throw better than Kearse for Green Bay's THIRD INT of Wilson. So that's one completion for Wilson to his own guys, three to the other guys. I think that just broke the NFL passer rating calculator. I'm scoring Wilson a negative NaN for the first half. Might be nice, of course, if Wilson had a better main target than Jermaine F. Kearse, but Wilson'd also better double-check that lucky horseshoe up his butt at halftime. May be time for a new one.
Neither team does much with their final possession before the half.
HALFTIME SHOW
The Seattle offense has been a shocking cluster, um, bomb to make Shaun Hill look like Peyton Manning in comparison. They are getting nothing open downfield. Kearse is about the only guy Wilson is throwing to, and he hasn't been open on any of those throws. Justin Britt is like Ryan Tucker was to the 2001 Rams. He's no Pro Bowler, but you really miss him when he can't be there for the big game. Seattle's only adjustment can be to throw quick stuff, and of course, the Packer secondary will be all over that. Let's keep banging Lynch, which isn't going too poorly, and try to use that to set up quick slants and screens to the backs. Use that screen play from a few weeks ago where Lynch was split wide. And please find Luke Willson, who really should be Wilson's go-to guy.
If Seattle can survive the 3rd quarter no worse than where they are right now, I will give Wilson a respectable chance at making a miracle comeback. But the champs are very close to teetering off the edge.
THIRD QUARTER
Interesting suggestion by the Fox crew at halftime that Wilson has been feeling the effects of that shot by Matthews on the pick. That may have knocked that lucky horseshoe loose.
Seattle went to Lynch three straight times out of the break, which I think was the right call, but he came up barely short on 3rd-and-3 to send out the punting unit. UNDERSTATEMENT ALERT: they needed a better start than that.
Green Bay also starts with a 3-and-out, though, opening with two Lacy runs and not coming out as aggressive as I'd thought they might. I get that, but you may not want to let Wilson hang around too much longer.
My eternal thanks to my browser for trashing my work and forcing me to re-recap this drive. It's a doozy. Wilson throws a lob to Will Tukuafu - called it! - for 8. Lynch crashes for 11 off the left side. Fox has made great points several times about the absence of read option from Seattle's game plan today. It's not as if Green Bay has a really great record stopping that. Quick hitch to Baldwin for 7 - called that. J.R. Sweezy and Bailey unleash the Beast for another 14. He also ran through Daniels at the line. So what does Seattle do next? Try a pass, and Matthews whips Okung with an inside swim move and sacks Wilson for a SIXTEEN yard loss. I think we have a POTG candidate. Except on 3rd-and-19, Green Bay rushes only three, giving Wilson EIGHT seconds to throw and find Baldwin, somehow left wide open anyway at the 20. Nick Perry makes two big plays to stuff Lynch there, though, and though Wilson drops a lob down the sideline right into Lynch's breadbasket - called that, too - Sam Barrington prevents the catch to send in the field goal team.
I'm honestly wondering how good a move that is with less than 20 minutes left to play when Pete Carroll unleashed his inner Jeff Fisher. They fake the kick, Ryan the holder sprints left and flicks a floater into the end zone, and...
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| IT'S |
And, what did I say? Green Bay's letting Seattle back into it. They've passed on stepping on their necks on a number of occasions; time to find that killer instinct and put them away. Also, my apologies to Jon Ryan for calling him "Pat" earlier. You're still no Johnny Hekker, though.
Rodgers hits Nelson over the middle for 12, but two plays later, his calf injury appears to re-aggravate on a blown 2nd-and-long screen to Lacy. Rodgers went down untouched. He then looks slow trying to get away from a stunting Avril, who chops him down for a sack. Seattle gets the ball at their 34 after the punt, with momentum swinging like it's Leonardo diCaprio.
Wilson bungles a shotgun snap and loses 5 when Morgan Burnett gets to him. When did Seattle trade for Scott Wells, btw? A majority of their snaps today have been off. About a 3-yard quick slant to Baldwin and a dropped quick out by Willson that would have gotten two at most ship the ball back to the Packers.
#12 at his 13. KUUUHN opens up a big hole for Lacy for 5. Bennett misses Lacy in the backfield and lets him get away for 7.
But, the 4th quarter is here, and I know two things. I'm going to lose yet another f*cking over/under bet, and Seattle has us all right where they want us. The fourth quarter is usually theirs.
FOURTH QUARTER
Holy crap, what a start to this quarter. James Starks (!) takes off for 32 yards on his first touch of the game, cutting back crossfield and running through a couple of tackles. Not only that, but Sherman is down after colliding with Chancellor at the end of the play. The replay has me thinking possible hyperextended elbow. Sherman runs back out to play one-armed. He's a jackass, but he's a tough jackass. Rodgers tweaked his ankle earlier, not his calf. Richard Rodgers makes another key catch over the middle for a first down. Certain teams with Gronkowskis on their rosters might be thinking ahead and hoping the Seahawks make a comeback. Starks beat K.J. Wright down the sideline for a possible TD, but Rodgers overthrew him on the move. 3rd-7, Rodgers has to ditch it out of bounds under pressure from Bennett. Crosby squeezes it in from 48, despite a high snap, for three big Packer points. 19-7 Packers
Baldwin continues to fail to distinguish himself as a kick returner by getting swarmed at the 13. Willson muffs a catch on a crossing route. Wilson hits him in the flat for only 3 on 2nd down. Lockette makes a BIG play to catch a poorly-thrown slant route and gain 12. Seattle went 5-wide, trips left, but threw away from it. Mike Neal whiffs at the line and lets the Beast loose for 12 more. Wilson actually runs now, scrambling for 4. That was not a designed run. Baldwin drops a screen pass that probably would have gotten the 1st, but who needs that when you have Beast Mode? Inside handoff to Lynch on 3rd-and-6, he runs through Neal again, gets to the marker, pushes a 3-man gang tackle back, and then the cavalry arrives to push the scrum forward another 5 across midfield. So, Seattle's stupidly throwing the next play, a blitz doesn't get there, Wilson gets forever to throw and STILL eats the ball when Burnett the blitzer and Perry finally get to him for a 4-yard loss. Clinton-Dix breaks up a pass over the middle that should have been his third pick. Right through his hands. Wilson's hit as he throws on 3rd down and he overthrows Baldwin. They still need two scores with 7:00 left.
The Packers are at their 13 again with the rain back in a big way. They three-and-out. Lacy stayed on the bench while Starks got a couple of carries for 5, and Wright broke up a 3rd-down quick hitch to Andrew Quarless. The punt return leaves Seattle near midfield and with life with 5:13 left.
AND THAT SHOULD DO IT. Perfectly good pass by Wilson goes off Kearse's useless hands and pops to Burnett for an INT. Kearse's second muff for an INT of the game! We have a LVP, that is for sure.
Seattle starts burning timeouts after Bennett blows up the backfield for a 4-yard Lacy loss. Deja vu as Bennett does it again. Should Green Bay really be trying to block him with a TE at this stage of the game? Lacy gets only a couple more, and Seattle gets the ball back at their 31 after a pretty lousy punt with 3:51 left.
Now or never, Russell. Lynch rumbles off left guard for 14. Baldwin's open for 13 and gets another 7 after Casey Heyward falls. That's already FG position for Steven Hauschka. Wilson goes deep for Kearse but Tramon Williams has him blanketed perfectly. Should have been OPI on Kearse, even.
AND NOW THE WHEEL ROUTE. Lynch, well, wheels out of the backfield on 2nd-10, Barrington loses him immediately, and Sam Shields appears to make a big mistake not picking him up. Wilson rainbows a ball to him at the 10, and Lynch runs through Burnett and a late-arriving Barrington to do the rest. Those last two may have let up thinking Lynch stepped out of bounds. They thought right. It's originally called a TD but should come back out to the 12. Looked like even Lynch suspected it during the play.
Still 26 yards. Ball at the GB9 with 2:57 to go. Peppers grabs Lynch but he still grinds down to the 5. Wilson makes a good decision to run on 2nd-goal but Clinton-Dix stops him at the 1, along with Barrington. Wilson then runs a perfect fake to Lynch, letting Clinton-Dix blindly chase him into the right A gap while keeping the ball himself for a 1-yard TD. Was that the first read-option run of the game? Green Bay 19, Seattle 14
2:10 to play, so if the onside kick fails, Seattle should still be able to stop the clock twice.
SEATTLE GETS THE ONSIDE KICK! Brandon Bostick blows his attempt to high-point the high bounce at the 45, but somebody named Chris Matthews is playing hardball, and he grabs the carom at midfield to electrify the home crowd. Bostick whiffed on the ball and it hit him in the face. Then his coach screamed at him on the sideline on national TV. Bad day to be Brandon Bostick. Hang in there, kid.
Here comes Russell. What did I say, what did I say? Wilson takes off for 15 on a keeper, and the 2:00 warning can not come soon enough for Green Bay. Lynch bounces to the GB32 as we reach the warning. Seattle even still has a T.O. left.
Wilson hits Willson between two Packers, whom the TE runs over for a first down at the 24. Then, HOLY CATS. Lynch goes off LT, where Okung mauls Perry, James Carpenter gets a perfect interior seal, Baldwin picks off Hyde, and the Beast skittles his way for a 24-yard TD. Seattle has their first lead of the game with 1:25 to play - did they leave Rodgers too much time? - and will go for two.
Which they get, after Wilson weaves around drunkenly under heavy pressure to his right and then blindly flings a ridiculous lob to the other side of the field, and Clinton-Dix makes a Rodney McLeod-worthy play to let Willson in front of him at the goal line for the 2-point fair catch. That was such a smart play by Wilson - just chuck it! There's no downside like an INT on a 2-point try. Seahawks 22-19
Here we go. Green Bay at their 22, 1:19 left. They're going to need 45 yards to get Crosby in decent FG range. Packers also have all three timeouts. Skinny post to Nelson, beating Maxwell at the GB36. Cobb over the middle to the SEA48 - boy, that was quick - with Seattle once again getting little pressure on Rodgers. I'm a little surprised no timeout here. Avril flushes Rodgers but he "scrambles" slowly down to the SEA37. So there's 40 yards. 35 seconds to go. Yes, Seattle left Rodgers too much time. Nothing open the next play for Rodgers, and Lacy turned and went just as Rodgers tried to dump off to him. Incomplete at 0:30. Anybody for a reverse Fail Mary? Seattle blitzes and R.Rodgers can't get turned on a sideline streak. 3rd-10 at 0:26. Gotta look for something short for Cobb here, don't you? Seattle blitzes again - these are some ballsy calls by Dan Quinn - and while Sitton gets away with a blatant hold that kept Rodgers from getting sacked, the QB stepped up and hit Nelson at the 31 on an out route. Short of the first but within FG range. One-armed tackle by Sherman on the play, btw. He's earned the goofy Willis Reed tribute Buck tried to bestow on Rodgers last week. Crosby comes on for a 48-yard attempt with 0:18 to play. He hits it. 22-22 Over bettors (45) celebrate everywhere! Game can't end in a tie!
I really, really hope my TiVo has enough room to record the AFC game. It may not, which could make that recap pretty, um, interesting. Seattle kneels out regulation. Matt Hasselbeck will take the ball, and he's going to score! Dammit, Fox beat me to it!
OVERTIME
Seattle does win the toss and takes the ball. Baldwin's terrible return day continues as Chris Banjo strums him at the SEA13. Lynch up the middle for 3. Lob to Baldwin off a read option for 10. Packers showing some weakness to that play. 4 for Lynch heading left off a read option. So Carroll was saving it for overtime? Nothing open for Wilson off play-action; Peppers stops his scramble for no gain. 3rd-6. Baldwin beats Heyward downfield out of trips right formation and Wilson lobs him a 35-yard bomb down the sideline. Seattle's in FG range at the GB35.
AND THEY'RE IN SUPER BOWL RANGE WITH A GAME WINNING OVERTIME TD. Wilson gets the most solid pocket he's gotten all day. Kearse immediately beats Tramon Williams off the line with inside leverage and is running to the post. Heyward does not drop back in coverage until very, very late; he either blew the coverage or his assignment on the play was to spy Wilson. That leaves the middle of the field wide open, Wilson's pass is perfect, and Kearse pulls it in over his shoulder to go from goat of the game to permanent Seattle sports legend.
That was Kearse's first catch of the game.
Final score: Seattle 28, Green Bay 22 (OT)
POSTGAME SHOW
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| ESPN.com / Getty |
Speaking (ahem) of legends: (Ctrl-C) My script has the Packers carrying a surprising lead into the 4th until Russell Wilson bails Seattle out with another legendary comeback. No Fail Mary this time, though, please. Seattle wins, Green Bay covers the silly-high 8.5, and I'm finally resorting to reverse psychology and going with the over (45) despite Seattle's defensive reputation. Place your bets accordingly. Seattle 28, Green Bay 24 (Ctrl-V) I hit the trifecta for this game and am officially a gambling god.
I also freaking nailed Seattle's halftime adjustments. Packers fans can spend a bitter offseason blaming Brandon Bostick for muffing an onside kick, but the real culprit today was Mike McCarthy, who showed the killer instinct of Mister Rogers, and if I can see what's coming in the second half and a professional football coaching staff doesn't, it doesn't say a whole lot for them. This offseason I'd advise the Packers to beef up the lines. Peppers had a pretty quiet second half, and they need more out of their pass rush than just Matthews. On the o-line, Bulaga is always an injury waiting to happen, and they obviously need to place high priority on keeping Rodgers upright.
Phew. Super Bowl speculation after the second game, if I'm even getting it, and at this rate, it'll probably be about 2 in the morning when I get there. Games like this remind me why I love football, though.
-$-
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