The team with the hot hand and four straight wins vs. the reeling team with two straight pretty ugly losses: who's the one to pick for a playoff win? Of course. Dummy here is picking the Packers. Washington's got a lot of Houston's vibe. Not that I expect them to lose 30-0. But a lot of the reason they're here is their terrible division and a pretty darn easy schedule. I don't see many games against winning teams on the Redskin schedule, or any wins over one. There's also the experience factor. Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have been here before. Cousins and Jay Gruden haven't. The Packers could easily continue to play like garbage, but I'll go with the horse that has the big-race pedigree. Outright upset for the Packers (+1), and I'll take the under for now. I do get to change this pick any time up to gametime. Packers 24, Redskins 20
Joe and Troy calling the game for Fox, Gene Steratore and most of Walt Anderson's crew calling the game for the league.
FIRST QUARTER
I got here late and don't know who won the coin toss, but I assume the Packers did because they have the ball. Play-action and Aaron Rodgers goes sideline to James Jones for 11 in front of Brashaud Breeland. Chris Baker's unblocked the next play and flushed Rodgers into a throwaway. Eddie Lacy gets nowhere on a stretch handoff, stuffed by Mason Foster. Good edge pressure flushes Rodgers again, and Dashon Goldson tips the pass downfield to force Rodgers off the field. Poor punt rolls down to the 35. Rodgers is going to need better protection than he got the first series or the Packers are going to repeat their last two losses of the regular season.
Quick sideline pass to Jordan Reed from Kirk Cousins for 4, defended well by Clay Matthews. Alfred Morris runs into Mike Daniels for 1. Cousins gets a ton of time on 3rd down, but the pass is through Reed's hands. Quick 3-and-out for the Packer D.
Penalty during the punt return starts Green Bay back at their 8. Nothing really there as Rodgers goes deep down the far sideline for Jones. Lacy gets nothing off the left side. FedEx Field crowd noise gets J.C. Tretter to jump. That hurts when, on 3rd-13 from the 4, Rodgers holds the ball in the end zone way too long, and Preston Smith beats Tretter to hack the Packer QB down for a safety. Really dumb play-calling here. The Redskins left the middle of the field wide open but Rodgers has no one within 10 yards to check down to. This is the kind of play you're going to call from the goal line, Mike McCarthy? God help my gambling picks on this game. Redskins 2, Packers 0
Rashad Ross sweeps left with the free kick return out to the 45. Cousins rolls left off play action and hits TE (not KC QB) Alex Smith with a short pass; he breaks some bad tackling to gain 16. Morris makes a nice cut in the backfield and drives forward for 5. Boy, Green Bay better get a stop quickly before they get run off the field. Morris runs through Morgan Burnett for another 5, down to the GB29. Green Bay blitzes Hasean Clinton-Dix off LT but Cousins throws right and hits DeSean Jackson on the sideline for 3. 4-man rush, plenty of time for Cousins again, he hits Reed down to the 15. Things on the LOS are decisively in Washington's favor early. And, just like that, Jackson drags out of the left slot, beating Damarious Randall with ease and beating Clinton-Dix to the pylon. Looks like a TD, but Jackson stepped out of bounds before breaking the plane with the ball. 1st-goal inside the 1 then. Clinton-Dix and Jake Ryan stuff Morris at the 1. 2nd-goal. Matthews and Letroy Guion stuff the 2nd-goal run, Guion running over center Spencer Long. AND NOW WASHINGTON GETS A DELAY OF GAME. 3rd-goal from the 8 when they started inside the 1. Zone blitz doesn't get there, but Clinton-Dix reaches around Pierre Garcon to break up a pass at the goal line. Major bullet dodge there. Bryce Harper's bases-loaded double puts the Nationals ahead 5-0. Nationals 5, Brewers 0
Jeff Janis returns the kick to the 20. Handoff to Lacy gets maybe 2. Rodgers gets plenty of time on 2nd down but can't hit Richard Rodgers on the sideline. Randall Cobb's open on a corner route, but Rodgers back-foots the throw and can't hit him, either, so Aaron Rodgers is off to a 1-for-SIX start.
Redskins start at their 32. They play-action out of a heavy formation, but Julius Peppers smokes jumbo TE Tom Compton, and even with the heavy lineup, Matthews breaks through unblocked to drop Cousins at the 20. Cousins loses the ball and gets extremely lucky it rolls right back to him. Well-designed draw to Pierre Thomas gets 7 but leaves 3rd-15. Peppers beats Josh LeRibeus late to force an incomplete pass. Well, neither offense looks like it knows what the hell to do right now.
Will Compton and Will Blackmon string out a handoff to Cobb for a couple. Jared Abbrederis bobbles away a smoke pass. 3rd-8, Quinton Dunbar breaks up a sideline pass to Jones. Instead of shaking our heads at the incompetent Packer offense, we should probably be impressed at how far they've gotten without a decent go-to-receiver.
Jamison Crowder brings the punt back across midfield but a penalty yanks them back to the 36. Nice right off-tackle run by Morris for 7. Nick Perry pressures Cousins into a dumpoff that's off Ryan Grant's hands. 3rd-3. Reed runs an out from left end and makes a stunning 1-handed catch in traffic and rolls down to the GB37. Two Packers thought they had a pick on that play. You'll need to actually have the ball for that, guys. That draws a pretty uneventful first quarter to a close.
SECOND QUARTER
Garcon runs a quick slot out and beats Casey Hayward for 12. B.J. Raji is too quick for Kory Lichtensteiger the next play and buries Morris for a 4-yard loss. But on 3rd-10, Reed runs a simple seam route straight down the field and burns Micah Hyde for a 24-yard TD. Hopkins keeps things weird on the scoreboard by DOINKing the PAT off the right upright. Redskins 11, Packers 0
You can count on me to fall for picking the stupid Packers in the playoffs every year and getting burned. What a bunch of stiffs. Touchback for Hopkins. Foster and Kedric Golston blow up a handoff to James Starks for a loss as the Packer running game continues to get nowhere. Rodgers completes only his 2nd pass, to Jones at the 25. They quick-snap on 3rd down, catching Washington with 12 men on the field. That might have been the biggest Packer play of the game. That's superseded when Rodgers buys a lot of time from his 31 and goes deep over the middle to Jones for 34. Devante Adams shakes and bakes after a bubble screen to gain 10. Rodgers hits Starks in the far right flat for 5. Cobb dances for 8 with a jet sweep right down to the 12. He next drops a short pass intended for him. Rodgers quick-snaps to catch the Redskins with 12 men again, then dances around in the pocket to avoid Ryan Kerrigan's pressure and hits Cobb in the end zone for a 12-yard TD. Ach, there has been some sloppy play in this game. Gruden wanted a TO but didn't get it. Rodgers was at his finest on the play, though. Redskins 11, Packers 7
Touchback for Mason Crosby. Ryan trips Thomas for 2. Cousins gets time but has to settle for hitting Reed for a couple. Garcon drags right out of flat and beats LB Joe Thomas for 12. Hayward breaks up a downfield pass for Jackson. Chris Thompson breaks away on a draw for 25. Poor form by Mike Daniels there, overshooting the play while leaving his feet. Really exposed the middle. Poorer form by Cousins the following play. Mike Neal disposes of Morgan Moses with a quick swipe move, and though that's not Cousins' blind side, he's oblivious of the coming trainwreck. Sack, strip and I believe recovery, too, by Neal. Big, big play.
Packers ball at their 46, and despite the dead ball the previous play, Rodgers has to blow a TO to avoid a delay of game. Today's been so filled with sloppy delay of game situations it's a wonder some of these teams even made the playoffs. Kerrigan gets a handful of Rodgers' jersey but he escapes and sprints out right for the throwaway. Troy Aikman is also noting Rodgers' lack of intermediate receivers, but blames it on young receivers not working back to the QB vs. play design. Speaking of which, nice smoke pass to Cobb for 11, then in hurry-up, a quick slant to Jones for 9. Lacy off right tackle for 3 and another first at the WSH32. Rodgers overthrows Cobb deep behind the secondary. Richard Rodgers saved his butt with a nice blitz pickup; that deserved a better throw. Offsides on Kerrigan, then Starks breaks a tackle for 3 to set up 3rd-2. Washington looks confused on D, but Rodgers doesn't take good advantage of it, going outside for a well-covered Jones, with Dunbar breaking up the pass. Mason Crosby shaves the lead down to 1 with a 43-yard FG. Redskins 11, Packers 10
Another touchback for Crosby. Redskin ball with 2:54 to go. Morris going up the middle for 3 doesn't impress the home crowd much. GB actually uses a TO after that, their 1st. Short pass to Crowder for 4 inspires another GB TO. Crowder runs a quick out on 3rd down but Quinten Rollins makes a nice play to break it up. Washington didn't even have the ball 30 seconds there.
Packers take over at their 40 at 2:22. Rodgers to Jones over the middle for 5 at the 2:00 warning. Ball came out but Jones was down. Starks makes a tough catch of a low screen pass in a crowd and takes it across midfield. Quick hitch to TE Rodgers for 6. Quick out to him for another 5, to the WSH38. Clock's down to 1:00. They try for another quick screen to Rodgers, but it's incomplete, he wasn't expecting it. Jones makes a catch at the 30 with Breeland all over him. 3rd-2. Chris Baker's injured after the play, stopping the clock. Washington's also charged with a TO. Yet another solid pocket for Rodgers, and Adams beats Dunbar, who stuck to him well despite a double move, with an excellent sideline catch at the 10. Too late now, but Washington's got to get its pass rush going. Rodgers overthrows Cobb in the corner of the end zone at 0:33. The next play, 4-man rush only gets there late, giving Rodgers plenty of time to hit Adams for a 10-yard TD. Adams just ran a flag route out of the slot and Dashon Goldson gave him up to... no one. The Packers' hurry-up offense has really had the Redskin secondary confused at times. Too bad they didn't get a week to practice for it or anything! Packers 17, Redskins 11
That last play was really Dunbar's mistake: he should have stayed at the goal line but jumped up to cover Starks in the flat instead. Ross brings the kick only out to the 20, and Washington kneels it out from there.
Picking up the offensive pace was the pick-me-up the Packers badly needed. Washington needs to counter that by getting pass rush on Rodgers again; it completely died off in the 2nd quarter. They need to sell out against the pass in the 2nd half because Green Bay's completely one-dimensional, with no running game to speak of.
Washington could stand to go to a more aggressive approach on offense themselves. The trouble they've had protecting Cousins combined with their similar lack of a running game probably calls for a quick short-passing game to open things back up downfield.
Whichever team gets the TE going in the 2nd half seems very likely to have a leg up. Jordan Reed disappeared in the 2nd; he needs to be a big part of the offense if Washington is going to get back into gear. Richard Rodgers may be Aaron Rodgers' most reliable target; if the Redskins start re-applying heat, he's going to need that release valve.
THIRD QUARTER
Ha, Howie Long stole my point about Jordan Reed. Put that man in the Hall of Fame! Ross sweeps right out to the 28, gets taken down way out of bounds, but no flag. Luckily, no Concrete Ring of Death, either. Cousins fires deep over the middle off play-action to Garcon for 21. Morris rips up the middle for 19 behind Brandon Scherff's block and a double-team on Raji. Thomas tries to sweep left but Ryan blows that up for -4. Cousins gets a lot of time, dumps off to Thompson at the 30. 3rd-7. Peppers gets good pressure on Cousins, but he hits Crowder on a pivot route. Hayward stops him a yard short. Jay Gruden's going for it on 4th-1. Cousins rolls right and buys time for Reed to get behind most of the Packers. He catches the soft toss at the 15 and gets down to the 7. 1st-goal, Cousins overthrows Garcon in the end zone. He hits Jamison in a Crowd-er at the 3 on 2nd-goal. With GB pretty pre-occupied covering Reed, Cousins brilliantly looks over there and runs it in himself on a QB draw. What kind of alignment was that by the Packers? NO NOSE GUARD ON THIRD AND GOAL FROM THE 3? Has anybody seen Gregg Williams? Redskins 18, Packers 17
That may not have been a designed draw; Cousins may have taken freedom to run on his own once he saw that idiotic formation. Touchback Hopkins. Adams gets 9 on a bubble screen but stays down after the play clutching his knee. He got hurt by his own teammate Rodgers the TE landing on him. John KUUUUHN takes the up handoff for 2 and a 1st. Rodgers overthrows Jones on a deep go, with Dunbar having the best chance to catch it. Abbrederis spins out away from Blackmon on the sideline and gets 9. The Packers fake a handoff to Cobb; Rodgers rolls out and hits KUUUUHN coming off the end of the line for 6. Cobb's well-covered down the near sideline on another long incomplete. Pitch left to Cobb, who makes a nice cut up inside for 9. 3rd-1 at the WSH45. Up handoff to Kuhn again, but it's stuffed by Ricky Jean-Francois. Remember all the times in the NFC Championship last year when Mike McCarthy wouldn't go for it on 4th-and-short? He's going for it now, on 4th-and-1. The Packers can't catch Washington off-guard hurrying the play, then nearly run out of time on the play clock themselves. ANOTHER timeout today to avoid a delay of game. The hard count doesn't do the trick, but GB sticks with the play anyway, and Lacy goes off LT for 13. The key here is the stupid wide split by Kerrigan at RDE; the Packers ran right at that opening. Somewhere Gregg Williams nods in approval. And here goes Lacy again. He pops off the left side for 30 after KUUUUUHN's CRUSHING block in the hole takes out TWO Redskins. 1st-goal at the 4. Flip right to Starks, with Bryan Bulaga lead-blocking, and Starks is in pretty easily after cutting up inside the big man. Key block by KUUUUHN again, too. Packers 24, Redskins 18 Looks like the under is going to go down for the first time all weekend. Knew I should have switched my bet up there.
Ross takes a REALLY short kickoff at the 15 but only gets it out to the 24. Reed got behind coverage on a corner route, but Cousins overthrew him. Pitch right to Thomas for only a couple. Pretty big play for Washington here on 3rd-8. Grant appears to be open behind the secondary and Burnett, but trips over the 50 yard line. Cousins likely overthrew that one anyway. Couple of clutch throws missed by the Redskin QB.
Packers at their 24 now. Rodgers smells a blitz and audibles to a handoff to Cobb, who spins for 4. Cobb spins again for another 3 on a handoff out of pistol formation. 3rd-3. Trips left and Rodgers actually throws over there, to an open Jones on a quick out at the 38. Foster trips up Starks for a 2-yard loss. Rodgers gets plenty of time off play-action and hits Cobb crossing underneath the zone at midfield for another first down. The Redskins simply HAVE to get some pass rush going. It'll have to wait for the 4th quarter now.
FOURTH QUARTER
Starks gets a big hole up the middle for 11. Great blocks by center Corey Linsley and Richard Rodgers. Starks slips through the right side for another 7 with Bulaga and company really controlling the point of attack. Starks gets another 4 and another first down off RT. We're starting to feel Washington's desperation as Kerrigan jumps offside. 1st-5 at the WSH24. Big cutbacks have been available on almost all of Starks' carries this drive, and he gets the message here, cutting back left into wide open field while Preston Smith fails to stay home. He dives down to the 3 with a 21-yard gain. Easy-to-see hold on Abbrederis not called. Lacy follows Richard Rodgers out of fullback in a weird half-pistol formation for the TD. Aaron Rodgers does an excellent Richard Nixon impression signalling for the 2-point attempt. Washington blitzes a safety but Abbredaris beats Blackmon out of the slot easily for the deuce. Packers 32, Redskins 18 The under and Washington's playoff hopes are taking the carpool home.
Crosby's third touchback. Ugh, don't run Morris up the middle! Boo! Two yards. Short pass to Thompson for 7. Morris crashes off left tackle for 12, though. Key block by Tom Compton at jumbo TE. Soft pass rush gives Cousins plenty of time to hit Reed down the seam for 22. He's erroneously called down after rebounding off Randall on the ground, denying him another 10-15 yards. Randall's down after the play because Reed basically kneedropped him on the Achilles. Ouch. Big rush by Clay Matthews on a stunt buries Cousins back at midfield. Nick Perry got there, too. Trent Williams is a good tackle, but he's not going to block both of those guys. Spencer Long screwed up next door. 2nd-19 now at the GB47. Burnett and Randall screw each other out of an INT on a poor deep throw. 4-man rush nearly gets Cousins and he throws behind Reed in the flat. Down two TDs, near midfield, only 9:00 left, Washington still ought to be going for it here, but they punt. It's downed around the 9, but you're running out of time and chances.
Pot Roast Knighton buries Lacy for -2 on a pistol handoff. Dunbar lets GB off the hook by interfering with Rodgers down the sideline. Aikman insists the throw wasn't catchable, which just tells me he hasn't watched any other games this weekend. DPI's been called on much-less catchable balls than that one. First down at the 27. Mike Pereira agrees with me, nyah. Lacy gets a couple after spinning off Baker on the ground. Lacy left for a couple more. Dunbar stops Abbrederis a yard short on a quick slant, but the Packers got a valuable three minutes off the clock. Crowder fair-catches a good punt at the 9.
Quick hitch to Garcon for 5. Thompson open out of the backfield out to the 23. Incomplete for a well-covered Reed over the middle. Cousins looks for Reed, but he's blanketed by Micah Hyde and that's incomplete. 3rd-10. Ladarius Gunter breaks up a pass for Garcon at the 40. Gunter's in because Quinten Rollins got hurt. He was also a favorite of mine a couple of Senior Bowls ago. Nyah. Nick Perry sticks a fork in Washington's season by beating Trent Williams around the edge and sacking Cousins despite being taken down by an unflagged hold. Basically just a 3-man rush there.
Packers have it at the WSH17; Goldson trips up Starks for no gain. Buck says GB called TO, but that had to be Washington. OK, he corrects himself. Starks up the middle for maybe another 1, and another Redskin TO. He's down to the 12 on 3rd down to claim Washington's last TO and send Crosby in. He hits from 29. Packers 35, Redskins 18
Ross only gets out to the 16. Save the seconds and kneel next time, huh? Thompson sprints for 38 with a screen, with Long leading out. Big block outside by Moses. A couple of plays later, Cousins hits Garcon at the GB21 and absorbs a late hit from Datone Jones. Well, that was quick; they're already at the 11. Hyde breaks up an end zone pass for Reed; should have picked it off. Cousins hits Thompson at the 5 a split second before getting hit by Perry again. McCarthy challenges whether Thompson controlled the ball in bounds but the call stands. 3rd-4. Matthews flinches but Reed is called for a false start. Cousins to Reed again, in a crowd at the 5, to set up 4th down. Cousins tries to buy time on a roll with nobody open but eventually gets dropped by Mike Neal all the way back at the 20. Cousins has had some big losses on sacks today.
While I'm trying to get the postgame show written, stupid Lacy fumbles with 1:51 left and Green Bay doesn't even run out the clock. Redskins at their 32. Cousins to Reed again, who breaks away from a strip attempt and gets 15. Ross runs around forever on a short cross and gets a big 2. Pass to Reed is broken up in the end zone and none of four different players can grab the rebound. Perry beats Williams again and Cousins obliviously runs right into his arms. At least that was the blind side that time. But boy, has his pocket presence been bad. Thompson can't turn the 4th-17 dumpoff into a first down, and we're finally done.
Final: Packers 35, Redskins 18
POSTGAME SHOWI'm struggling to find a POTG here. Rodgers' numbers were nothing special at all: 21-36-210. The key of the game was Green Bay's move to speed up the offense late in the first half. Washington really didn't stop them again after that. Rodgers wasn't pressured much after that, either, and you barely heard from Ryan Kerrigan or Preston Smith the rest of the game. That points toward the tackles, J.C. Tretter and Bryan Bulaga. Fox gave Tretter lots of love late in the game; I'll have to pick Bulaga. Keeping Kerrigan quiet ranks as the bigger accomplishment, and Bulaga was key to Green Bay's successful 2nd-half running game.
Green Bay really struggled there for a while, though, and now return to the scene of the crime in Arizona where they got wiped out three weeks ago. Arizona will keep some flaws exposed that Washington didn't work over very well today. I don't feel this game gives the Packers enough momentum to think they're going to reverse their last very negative result in the desert. I like the Cardinals and the Patriots pretty big next weekend; still mulling over the other two games.
Washington's got some work to do, first and foremost securing Cousins to a contract. I would think they'll go high in the draft for offensive line again, which would really improve the viability of their running game. Collect a bunch of defensive talent after that.
My apologies to everyone who bet against me this weekend. That's usually the way to go, but I actually had four successful games. I was 4-0 straight up (even though this is the first time ever all four road teams won on wild card weekend), 1-2-1 ATS and 2-2 over/under, a very acceptable 7-4-1 to start the postseason. If only I hadn't gone with the stupid sucker bet in the Houston game!
I may or may not blog next week. Depends on my mood. This is shaping up as a very rough week for St. Louis football fans and I may have to opt to take up needlepoint or something for a while instead of spending hours and hours being a pissed-off blogger.
Regardless, enjoy the games and thanks for reading.
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