Mike Florio handicaps, sorta, the odds of various teams moving to Los Angeles, making the Jagwires the favorite, just ahead of the Rams. I'd also move the Vikings ahead of the Rams, given that their lease runs out 4 years before the Rams' does.
But put me down for option 10, IF the NFL goes ahead with its idea to add a 17th regular-season game. Roger Goodell's half-assed plan of giving the AFC the extra home-game one year, the NFC the next, simply does not deserve to fly, though I imagine it'll be approved by the owners whenever they get their say. A neutral-site game would be a fairer way to schedule a 17-game season. I'll complain more about Game 17 in a future post.
L.A. prize: NFL owners lining up to move?
Posted: June 11, 2008
The Jaguars have been competitive for years and now show Super Bowl promise, but they can't consistently sell out the uncovered seats in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, let alone create the demand to remove those giant tarps covering sections and sections in the building's far corners.
So, with a Los Angeles developer taking the "if they come, I will build it" approach to constructing a new pro football stadium, the Jaguars could be the favorites to fill the 14-year (and counting) void in the nation's No. 2 television market.
Suffice it to say, Los Angeles is a complex situation. And Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver isn't the only NFL owner who dreams of placing "Los Angeles" in front of his or her team's nickname.
L.A. developer Ed Roski doesn't want to own an NFL team but does want to build and operate its home stadium. He discloses on the stadium's web site that his group is talking to "teams," but he won't identify the owners. (Of course, it's also a possible bluff, and he has talked to none of the 32 NFL owners.)
Let's assume Roski is talking to several NFL owners about relocating. Let's also assume that, eventually, there will be pro football in Los Angeles. Here is a look at 10 possible scenarios for NFL games returning to L.A.:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Even though we start by examining the Jaguars' situation, it doesn't necessarily mean the team is the most likely to move to L.A. But there have been rumors for years that Weaver is willing to sell, and there has been little talk of local interests buying the team and keeping it in Jacksonville.
At some point, Weaver will realize the Jaguars won't be viable over the long haul in their current home. And when Weaver finally hangs the "for sale" sign on the franchise, Southern California interests could swoop in.
Or maybe Weaver could move the team himself, without selling the franchise. It's a possibility that rarely gets mentioned. But if Weaver's ultimate decision not to sell is driven by a desire to win a Super Bowl, moving the team into a stadium that likely would generate a lot more revenue would give him even more ammo to turn the Jaguars into a championship team before he cashes out on his investment.
2. St. Louis Rams
With former majority owner Georgia Frontiere deceased and new majority owner Chip Rosenbloom reportedly contemplating a sale of the team, the Rams could be a logical candidate to return to the city from which they bolted in 1994. But the earliest opportunity to exit St. Louis' Edward Jones Dome comes in 2015. By then, Roski's stadium will have a different tenant, or the project likely will have been abandoned.
Still, the Rams would be welcomed back in Southern California with open arms. And their return wouldn't disrupt the division alignment, because the franchise already sits to the NFC West.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Ownership has been trying for years to get a new stadium in the Twin Cities. The Metrodome lacks the bells and whistles of modern stadiums, so the Vikings lag way behind some other teams when it comes to revenue.
The locals in Minnesota haven't been keen on the idea of using taxpayer money for a new stadium, and the collapse of the I-35 bridge last summer provides a constant reminder that public money is better spent on things that the public uses more than 10 days per year.
Sooner or later, the Vikings' stadium issue will come to a head. The team's lease at the Metrodome expires after the 2011 season, which is only three years away.
4. New Orleans Saints
The NFL is unlikely to abandon New Orleans as it continues a slow recovery from the ravages of Hurricane Katrina. But, sooner or later, Saints ownership and league officials will have to face the difficult reality of running a big-league sports franchise in a city that might never return to the big leagues in terms of business or population.
We hope the Saints remain a fixture in New Orleans for as long as there's an NFL. Still, pro football is driven more by business interests than sentimentality. In the end, the dollars and cents might make the Saints a no-brainer candidate for a move.
5. Buffalo/Toronto Bills
It once was widely believed that the Bills were a prime candidate to move to Los Angeles. Owner Ralph Wilson, 89, has made it clear that his family won't keep the team after his demise. So the Bills will have a new owner, eventually. And that new owner might want to transport the franchise to a much more financially viable market.
That's probably why Wilson has been working so hard to establish a presence in Toronto. If the team is on track to, say, play a split schedule between Toronto and Buffalo, the team can be sold to local interests who won't feel compelled to make the move in order to make the money.
6. San Francisco 49ers
As the 49ers flail away in an effort to get a new home in the Bay Area, there has been some media speculation that they could be the team to move to L.A. It's unlikely at this point, but it's impossible to rule out any team unable to finagle a new stadium.
7. Oakland Raiders
In a roundabout way, a return by the Raiders to Los Angeles would make sense, considering few things the Raiders do ever make much sense. It thus would be fitting if the team that made the trek from Oakland to L.A. and back to Oakland went back to Los Angeles once more. Don't rule it out.
8. San Diego Chargers
The closest team to L.A. is the least likely to make the leap, in part because the unspoken goal seems to be adding another NFL team to the region. Still, the Chargers have yet to figure out a long-term stadium solution, and the money that could be made from a swanky new home in Los Angeles might be too good to pass up.
9. An expansion team
Though the NFL supposedly doesn't want to expand, fans in Jacksonville and Minneapolis and New Orleans and other cities that could lose their teams to L.A. think expansion is a great idea.
The problem is the league's current 32-team format -- with eight four-team divisions and a scheduling formula that brings every team to every stadium once every eight years -- is perfect. Adding just one team wouldn't make sense. At a minimum, the NFL would need to drop two new teams into the mix, just as it did in 1976 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks and in 1995 with the Jaguars and Carolina Panthers.
There has been talk of two expansion teams landing in L.A. That certainly would be the ultimate use of Roski's stadium -- instead of one team playing eight games there, two would play 16.
Still, it's unlikely that expansion would happen soon enough for the plan to dovetail with Roski's objectives.
10. The neutral-site option
I've written about this plan before. With the NFL considering expanding the regular season to 17 games per team, such a format would allow for 16 neutral-site games per year.
Four games could be sent to Europe, two to Canada, one to Mexico, one to China or Japan ... and eight games to Los Angeles.
It's the best way to solve the L.A. problem without pilfering another city's team. And it becomes a viable option after the various teams listed above have used the vacancy in Southern California to leverage new stadiums of their own.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News.
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