The problem with picking the Chiefs is their playoff history - eight straight postseason losses. Andy Reid is 0-3 in postseason since 2008, 10-10 lifetime. Their last playoff game is hard to forget, the epic choke job of losing a 38-10 lead in Indianapolis and losing the game 45-44. That makes me want to pick Houston. So does K.C.'s fairly unimpressive finish to the season. 10-3 over San Diego? 17-13 over Cleveland? 23-17 over Oakland? How strong a close is that, really?
Less than five minutes before game time, I still have no idea who'll win. K.C. won in Houston week 1 and handled a similar pass rush in Denver. Other factors that work in the Chiefs' favor for me: Alex Smith has been a pretty decent playoff QB; it's Brian Hoyer's and HC Bill O'Brien's first playoff game; I'm worried about the step up in quality of competition for Houston, though they have beaten Cincinnati and the Jets.
I'll fall for it and start the playoffs betting a game the stupidest way possible. Chiefs win, Texans cover, game stays under the line of 39.5. 19-17 Chiefs on a late Cairo Santos FG. Sorry in advance, Kansas City fans.
You can watch the game on ESPN or ABC starting at 3:20. Mike Tirico and Chucky will call the game from the booth. Ron Torbert (really?) will head a mixed officiating crew.
Buckle up for another Rams-free postseason.
FIRST QUARTER
Houston wins the toss and defers. I didn't plan to start this postseason falling way behind, or losing every over/under bet, but Knile Davis has started off the playoffs in style with a 106-yard kickoff return for a TD! Tirico was already calling Davis Gone! for the TD at the 35, that's how poorly the Texans covered this one. Won't be the last thing they don't cover today, I expect. Ahem. Houston does an awful job attacking the two-man wedge. Spencer Ware makes a PANCAKE block at the 15 that springs Davis and basically eliminates the first wave of Houston's coverage. The other spring block was by Ramik Wilson, who took out two Texans, one I'm pretty sure by accident. Demetrius Harris' block on the edge is not textbook, but he gets in the outside runner's way, and there's your seam, and Davis is gone. Hell, by the time he's at the 20 he's already passed 9 Houston defenders. I just don't know how you could cover a kickoff worse. Chiefs 7, Texans 0
Cairo Santos avoids a similar problem for the Chiefs by pinning a touchback 9 yards deep. Alfred Blue up the middle for 3. If I'd known Duane Brown was out at LT for Houston, I might have picked K.C. with more confidence. Poor 2nd-down throw by Brian Hoyer behind his receiver, and he overthrows Cecil Shorts over the middle on 3rd down. Nightmare start for the Texans.
And I'll be looking up the Houston special teams coach right about now. Fine boot by Shane Lechler goes 53, but Frankie Hammond weaves for about 30 on the return through more shoddy coverage across midfield. Holding on Jamell Fleming takes it back, though.
I thought so. The Houston special teams coach is former Rams STs coach Bob Ligashesky. Some things just don't change. I'd argue the Texans could use an early turnover as the Chiefs get going from their 13. Alex Smith hits Travis Kelce at the 20 despite tight coverage. Quick hitch to Albert Wilson gets 4 and a first. Bubble screen to Kelce for about 4. They double-teamed J.J. Watt that play AND threw away from his side. Watt goes wide LDE the next play and has just Kelce blocking him, but Smith goes up the middle with a read option for 5. Watt can't get off Donald Stephenson's block at all on 3rd down and Ware goes up the middle for a couple and a 1st. Jet sweep right to Wilson goes for 9.5. Charcandrick West gets that, just. 1st-10 at the 45. KC stupidly has Kelce blocking Watt 1-on-1 again. Ware provides great help to pick Watt up after he whips Kelce badly, but Bernardrick (oy, some of these names) McKinney came from the other side on a blitz and forced Smith up into Whitney The Mercilus for a sack. Houston needed that. Keep blocking J.J. Watt with a TE, idiots. Gruden scolds KC for not picking up the blitz. They couldn't because Ware had to save his QB from Watt. 2nd-13. I swear I'm not trying to go this long about every play. It just happens. Kelce drops a quick screen. Did I just see Jeremy Maclin about knock Watt off his pins? It looked like he knocked him back to center, which gave Smith all day to go long and just barely miss Wilson. Punt is fair-caught at the 17.
Josh Mauga trips up Blue for no gain. Blue gets only two more, stopped by Dontari Poe. 22 alignment, empty backfield, Hoyer throws AN IDIOTIC INTERCEPTION right to Eric Berry. Neither Gruden nor I have any idea what Hoyer was doing there. That ball was two yards short of his receiver. I can only assume he never saw Berry.
Chiefs at the HOU33. Ware up the middle for 4. Smith guns over the middle for Maclin, but it's behind the receiver, tipped by Kareem Jackson and picked off by Brian Cushing. Boy did the Texans dodge a bullet there.
Houston now at their 17. Great play by Mauga to cover the TE bootleg, holds it to no gain. Very predictable draw to Blue only gets a couple. DeAndre Hopkins gets 10 out of a very quick hitch as, uh-oh, Justin Houston limps off the field. Blue immediately runs at JH's left end spot and bangs out 4. Hoyer overthrows Hopkins on the sideline, but Marcus Peters gets a DPI call despite the ball being completely uncatchable. Put the Texans at the 44. Great pocket for Hoyer as he drills Hopkins on the sideline vs. Sean Smith for 11. Blue makes Frank "Walking Dead" Zombo miss in the backfield and cuts right for 2. Blue drives for another 3, then Hoyer hits TE Ryan Griffin on an out route for a 1st down at the KC33. Toss left to Blue goes nowhere thanks to Tamba Hali blowing up a TE. Blue squirts up the middle for another 3. Justin Houston back in for KC. 3rd-7, big edge rush by Dee Ford forces Hoyer to step up. Allen Bailey also collapsed the pocket for KC, and when Hoyer went to throw he lost the ball off his own blocker instead. Dontari Poe recovers for KC. QB factor is one thing I've definitely gotten right about this game. Hoyer is a hot mess.
Chiefs at their 42 and a little overdue to turn some of Houston's offensive nonsense into points. Kelce makes an excellent grab of a play-action pass for 18 to end the quarter.
SECOND QUARTER
West up the middle for 3. That's at least the 2nd time they have not blocked Watt AT ALL to get him overpenetrating upfield. Crafty. Read-option freezes Watt and West takes it for another 3. Quintin Demps holds Kelce to 3 on a quick screen. KC single-blocking Watt at left end there and throwing away from him. Santos hits from 49 to extend the KC lead. Chiefs 10, Texans 0
Another touchback for Santos. I remember when Greg Zuerlein used to do that. Hali bottles up another edge run attempt as Poe drops somebody named Akeem Hunt for a loss. Hopkins beats Sean Smith on the edge on a quick hitch and also drew illegal contact. Got 13 anyway. Jaye Howard gets an EASY sack for KC the next play, easily beating Xavier Su'a-Filo (agh, these names) in a hand fight. Shorts pass to Cecil leaves 3rd-12. Plenty of time for Hoyer to throw, but Nate Washington can't make a diving sideline catch. Hammond fields the punt at the 17 and sweeps right out to the 30.
D-line was the biggest reason to pick Houston in this game but the Chiefs are winning the LOS on both sides of the ball. Quick hitch to Maclin for 6 as we learn the Chiefs basically have three backups on the o-line right now at RG, C and RT. Smith audibles to a pass, and Ware's excellent pickup of Watt beating Stephenson gives plenty of time to hit Kelce all the way down to the HOU39. Watt finally makes a play, beating Eric Fisher and tripping Ware up for 1. Now the Chiefs don't block Watt at all again but freeze him with read-option. West up the middle for 7. Jet sweep to Wilson fails, though, after LB John Simon blows it up in the backfield. Santos pops it through with ease from 49. I remember when Greg Zuerlein used to do that, too. Chiefs 13-0
Yet another Santos touchback. I remember... oh, never mind. Hoyer gets plenty of time and Hopkins makes an impressive sideline catch for 16. Handoff to fullback Jay Prosch for maybe 1. Blue finally puts some pep in the Texans' step with a 50-yard run off a stretch handoff. He sweeps right, cuts up inside Derek Newton, runs through some of the most comically bad tackling you'll ever see, from Justin Houston, to boot, as well as Ron Parker, before Sean Smith pulls him down at the KC13. Jonathan Grimes now takes a Wildcat handoff down to the 8. Hoyer overthrows Hopkins, only covered by rookie DB Stephen Nelson, on a fade route. Some risky business near the goal line by KC there. 3rd-5, Blue takes a shotgun draw down to the 2. Here come Watt AND Vince Wilfork in the goal line package! It's a WILDCAT run for WATT! And he loses 2. Nicely blown up by Derrick Johnson there, and shame on Bill O'Brien for screwing around like that on the goal line in the playoffs. That amounts to a lost down. KC now has to use its first time out due to Parker having a helmet problem. 2nd-goal, Houston in 22 alignment, Griffin motions inside. Hoyer looks for him and goes over the middle for Blue out of the backfield instead, but, making a strong play for player of the game, Josh Mauga cuts off the throw at the goal line and returns the INT out across the 20. Another Chief defender Hoyer simply did not see, and a critical one.
O'Brien earned that karmic retribution for wasting that goal line play with Watt in Wildcat. Chiefs at their 22 with about 3:40 left. Watt burns Eric Fisher on the edge and Whitney the Merciless punks the TE to get the sack on Smith. But on 3rd-12, with Watt unable to beat essentially a triple-team, Smith steps into a 19-yard sideline throw to Wilson. It's called a good catch live but the Texans challenge it after stadium replay shows Wilson not even close to getting his second foot down. Successful challenge by O'Brien has KC punting from their 20 at 2:14. The returner has to run way up to the 40. to field a poor punt.
Grimes gets stuffed on a handoff at the 2:00 warning. This has been completely a Brian Schottenheimer running game by the Texans. Up the middle all the time. After the 2:00 warning, Hoyer goes deep for Washington, but he is not remotely open, covered by Peters and Berry, and Peters picks off the bad throw over Washington's wrong shoulder. That's Hoyer's FOURTH turnover of the half as Texans fans wistfully pine for the days of Matt Schaub.
If my calculations are right, that's minus-5 fantasy points for Hoyer this half. A penalty on Peters' return starts the Chiefs at their 10. West up the middle for 5; hoping they can get Hoyer a fifth turnover yet this half, Houston is using their timeouts. Ware bolts out across the 30, bowls Demps over and gains 23 out to the 38. That's wasted three plays later when they run a pitch to West on 3rd-and-1 but Simon blows it up. They'll have to punt at around the 0:30 mark.
Grateful for their home playoff game, Houston's fans boo Hoyer on and back off the field as they kneel with the ball to end a dreadful half. KC 13-0 at halftime
The Chiefs are one of the few teams I wouldn't trust to have this game already put away based on their playoff history. Hoyer is a complete wreck at QB, but as Gruden keeps yelling at us, the Texans don't have anyone else to go to. They also don't have a running game, which is what they really need to fix in the 2nd half. Get Blue going with some designed cutback runs like the one that worked for 50. Get to the outside more, run some stuff designed to catch the typically overaggressive Justin Houston and Tamba Hali out of position. Get Grimes involved more. Hoyer's going nowhere without a running game to carry a lot of the weight, and neither are the Texans, unless they can sign Schaub or make a trade for Case Keenum before the 2nd half starts. That would be awesome if you could do that, by the way. The Rams could rob Houston blind. Sure, we'll take a 2nd-rounder for Keenum. Of course, we'd need Star Trek transporter technology to get him to the stadium in time.
Anyway, Andy Reid has done a masterful job of neutralizing Watt. Time for the Texans to adjust. Whitney the Mercilus has made a couple of plays but really needs to step it up. I'd also like to see more blitzing on the opposite side of Watt. Make KC start accounting for that pressure and free up Watt.
Until Houston does those two things - frees up Watt and runs well enough to keep Hoyer from having to do much - I don't see their chances as being much.
Figuring I'll get there late, I'll announce now that I'm taking the Steelers to cover and the over in the 2nd game. If you've been reading me, you could have skipped ESPN's halftime show; they agreed with everything I said. Dumb goal line play to Watt, awful Houston play selection, etc.
THIRD QUARTER
Santos' 4th touchback is followed by HARD booing of Hoyer's return to the field by the home fans. Blue crashing off a LB for 4 is actually exactly what the Texans need. Sean Smith breaks up a quick out for Griffin, didn't miss a pick-six by much. Hoyer beats a blitz with a lob to Grimes in the flat, and he runs through two Chiefs for a first down. They listened to my halftime adjustments! Blue up the middle for 3 to the 35. He goes off left tackle for another 5. I would quick-slant to Hopkins here, but Hoyer needs a timeout, and the Texans fans boo him for THAT, too. Quick hitch to Washington gains 3. Play-action, Su'a-Filo barely beats back Justin Houston's rush, Hoyer breaks the pocket and nearly throws his fourth INT. 2nd-10. Blue takes a draw right out of my halftime adjustments and off right tackle for 17. Tyvon Branch and others bottle him up on 1st down at the KC44, though. Shorts bobbles a sideline pass incomplete that would have been good for 2 at best. And a quick screen to Hopkins gets only about three. At least they remembered to get the ball to Hopkins. Lechler's punt is fair caught at the 6; the Texans better do something with that flipped field. I would have considered going for it.
Whitney the Mercilus violates the neutral zone to move KC out to the 11. On 1st-5, Watt beats Fisher on the edge, but not only does Alex Smith escape that, he scrambles... and scrambles... and scrambles down the KC sideline for a ridiculous SIXTY-FOUR yards. In a possible game-turning moment, though, it's all called back for a hold on Wilson. Good call on the hold; KC gets 1 yard out of that to leave us with 1st-and-4. Jared Crick drags Ware down for 1, as, uh-oh, Watt limps off the field. Trips right, but Smith hits West leaking out into the left flat for 8 and a 1st. Watt's trying to work out a groin injury. Smith rolls right off play-action and hits Maclin at the 38. It looks like Watt's coming back after KC calls a TO on 2nd-10. Watt forces Smith to step up; he hits Maclin for 7. Watt's down after the play, though, speaking of possible game-turning moments. Maclin is also down after the play, and hoo boy, they're looking at his knee - hasn't he already had a torn ACL in his career? Big play on 3rd-3 as Smith hits Kelce on a drag down to the HOU39. Ware crashes up the middle for 11 behind a strong block at center, and the Texans better make a stop RIGHT NOW if they're ever going to. Backward screen to Kelce gets 6 down to the 21, and a dumb penalty by Brandon Dunn after the play moves them down to the 11. After Ware gets a couple more up the middle, Smith FIRES to rookie Chris Conley (in for Maclin) in the back of the end zone to put this game into screw-this mode. Start the bus, Houston. Chiefs 20-0
I know, I know, weirder things have happened in Chiefs playoff games, but I don't see Andrew Luck over on that Texans bench. Another touchbacks and more boos for Hoyer. We want Weeden! Houston starts with a drop by Washington. Where's Hopkins? There he is, as Hoyer throws one at his feet out in the flat. BOOO! 3rd-10, Hoyer's line gets him a lot of time, and he actually manages not to throw an INT, finding an open TE instead, but Husain Abdullah breaks it up with a nice play. BOOOO! More shoddy coverage on the punt, but more shoddy penalties on the blocking.
Let's see if Reid has the sense to run the ball he did not have in Indianapolis with a big lead two years ago. Chiefs at their 29. Ware runs through Cushing for 6. So much for that; the Chiefs are throwing on a running down and Smith eventually scrambles out of bounds for 4. First down, but the clock stopped. Run the ball, dummies. Simon makes a dummy out of me by jumping a handoff to Ware for -1. And, well, maybe Reid's not so dumb to be throwing after all. Smith steps away from late pressure and hits Kelce wide open over the middle. He splits two TERRIBLE tackles and gets down to the 13 with a 47-yard gain. Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson on the pathetic double-whiff there. Start thinking about how to improve at QB in the offseason, Houston fans. They run down to the 7, where Crick IDIOTICALLY gets a late hit penalty for pushing Fisher over the pile. 1st-goal at the 4 now. Complete coaching and discipline meltdown by the Texans today. And NOW we hear they're talking about putting Weeden in the game. Hoo boy. Is it possible for a team to be better off not making the playoffs?
FOURTH QUARTER
Rivaling Hoyer for goat of the game dishonors, Crick blows a tackle in the backfield and Ware runs through him for a 5-yard TD. Congratulations, Kansas City. 27-0 Let's just keep this thing under so I can start out with a satisfying gambling 2-for-3.
Hoyer stays in and his first pass goes through Griffin's hands. 15 to Griffin with the Chiefs largely calling off the dogs now. Hey, let's defend my under pick, guys. Dumpoff to the underused Grimes for 4. Inside handoff to Grimes for another 3. Chiefs rush only 3, giving Hoyer time to find Griffin in the flat for 9 with everyone else covered. DeAndre Who? Oh, here he is, catching a bomb inside the 15! And pushing off. Poor call on the OPI there, I thought. I also thought Hopkins didn't get his back foot down. 1st-20 at the HOU39. Nice sideline throw to Jaelen Strong for 17. Over the middle to Hopkins for a similar gain down to the 27. If only the Chiefs had stopped playing defense all game, the Texans could have competed! Hoyer has Griffin open in the seam inside the 5 but throws it behind him, and Griffin lets it into his body for a clanger off his shoulder. Hoyer goes up top for Hopkins in the end zone but Sean Smith is all over him. They'll go for it on 4th-7. The pocket collapses on Hoyer, though, and Bailey slaps the ball out of Hoyer's hand as he tries to step up and throw. That's Hoyer's FIFTH turnover.
Smith takes a couple of runs himself to get KC a first down across the 40. Whitney the Mercilus whips Fisher with an inside move on the next 3rd down to sack Smith and force a punt, though with only 6:30 left. That's out of bounds at the 7, a classic coffin-corner job.
TERRIBLE OVERTHROW BY HOYER goes right to Sean Smith, TURNOVER NUMBER SIX, INT #4, and Hoyer has already locked up RamView's Goat of the Postseason Dishonor, and is in the running for all-time honors. Yeah, his butt should have been pulled about a quarter ago, even if it meant direct-snapping to Hopkins the rest of the game. Or Watt. Har. J.J.'s been out ever since that play in the 3rd where he and Maclin both got hurt, btw. So, of course, has Maclin, and they fear a major knee injury for him.
From the 21, the Chiefs grind out some more clock and Santos kicks a FG. No choke job for Andy Reid today. 30-0
Hoyer continues to throw miserable incompletions, not all his fault, while being serenaded by the Chiefs fans' war chant. It's not often a playoff game is the low point of your season, but...
Chase Daniels (!) replaces Smith and the Chiefs run out the rest of the clock while I desperately look for photos from the game online. Doesn't anybody do that any more?
Final: Chiefs 30, Texans 0
POSTGAME SHOW
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| Kansascity.com |
All Houston did today is spend three hours reminding us why the Rams suck. You can have all the great defensive players you want, but it's going to be rare for a team to go as cheap and chintzy as the Texans and Rams both tried to go this season at QB and actually succeed. Arguably, neither did; the Texans were only here because the rest of their division is terrible. Houston, you have a problem. HAR! Better get the QB situation fixed in the offseason.
My thanks to the Chiefs for getting my postseason gambling off to a solid 2-1 start. If they get the Broncos next, a game like today's is very repeatable. No way they win 30-0, of course, but still very winnable. And honestly, the Patriots weren't all that down the stretch, either. But with the Chiefs' and Reid's playoff history, I'd prefer to avoid Brady and Belichick if I was a Chiefs fan.
And in Belichick's infamous words, we're on to Cincinnati.
-$-
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