With 5 days to go until the 2014 draft starts, here's a mass listing of various "expert"'s projections for the Rams' early picks:
ESPN.com:
Mel Kiper: #2, Greg Robinson; #13, Hasean Clinton-Dix
Todd McShay: #2, Greg Robinson; #13, Hasean Clinton-Dix
NFL.com:
Charles Davis: Robinson and Johnny Manziel. Pass that bowl my way!
Daniel Jeremiah: guess who, Robinson and Clinton-Dix
Brian Baldinger: Jake Matthews and Calvin Pryor. Go Baldy!
Bucky Brooks' 4-round projection:
1 - Robinson and Clinton-Dix
2 - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
3 - Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice
4 - Jimmy Garoppalo, QB, Eastern Illinois
CBSSports.com:
Pat Kirwan projects a first round I particularly like: Rams trade down to #4, still get Robinson, take Pryor at 13. Kirwan, interestingly, has Cleveland trading up for Sammy Watkins.
Rob Rang: Robinson and Pryor, the conventional way
Pete Prisco: Robinson and Bradley Roby, the troubled Ohio State CB. I can see that happening.
FoxSports.com (Peter Schrager):
1 - Robinson and Pryor
2 - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
Ourlads:
1 - Matthews and WHOA! Deone Bucannan?
2 - Jace Amaro, troubled TE, Texas Tech
Not the greatest mock draft there.
Sports Illustrated Draft Preview Issue: Matthews and Clinton-Dix
Draftcountdown.com (Scott Wright):
Texans take Blake Bortles, Rams trade down to #6, still get Robinson
#13, of course, Clinton-Dix
2nd round, they get Jason Verrett with Atlanta's pick and take Kyle Van Noy (WHAAA?) with the #44 pick
Aaron Murray in round 3, because you can never have enough QBs on your roster coming off torn ACLs. Let's just say I hate this mock and move on.
Walter Football 6-round draft:
2 - Khalil Mack. Hoo boy.
13 - Clinton-Dix
44 - Jawuan James, T, Tennessee
75 - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
110 - Brandon Linder, G, Texas
153 - Kelcy Quarles, DT, South Carolina
188 - A.C. Leonard, TE, Tennessee State
214 - Denicos Allen, LB, Michigan State
OK, that's a terrible draft. Next?
DraftTek 7-round draft:
2 - Robinson
13 - Justin Gilbert. Hooray, someone besides Clinton-Dix!
44 - David Yankey, G, Stanford
75 - Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado
110 - Tom Savage, QB, Pitt
153 - Marqueston Huff, FS, Wyoming
188 - Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton
214 - Cassius Marsh, DE, UCLA
226 - Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon. Well, we were doing great up to here.
241 - Khairi Fortt, OLB, California.
249 - Jerrick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern.
250 - Antonio Andrews, RB, Western Kentucky.
The best draft I've seen anyone project for the Rams so far.
Saturday, May 3, 2014
RamView Accu-Draft 2013: the rest of the first round
They're telegraphing this pick so badly in the Windy City that they've probably talked themselves into having to trade up.
Steelers were near the bottom of the league in sacks last year. It's actually impressive they got as close to the playoffs as they did; this has to be the least-talented Steeler roster I've seen in years.
Figure Jerrah to see those 9.5 sacks in the SEC last year and reach for need.
Zack Martin was strongly in play here, but I had a hard time seeing Baltimore let a top play-making corner get away from them.
Do you really think Rex Ryan will take an offensive player? The Jets are far from spectacularly talented at LB, and their secondary also needs a lot of help. I had Calvin Pryor here originally, but then Mosley dropped ridiculously far. He's a steal here, let alone the end of the round.
Dolphins thank me for painting a dream scenario. Their o-line was so decimated by the Richie Incognito mess that their hand is almost forced to draft o-line, and they get as versatile and as good a blocker as there is left. Speaking of Incognito, yes, he made the Pro Bowl after leaving the Rams, but dumping him is still one of the best moves the Spagvaney regime made. He's now Exhibit A reminding teams to always be careful with character risks.
OOH, I HATE THIS PICK if the Big Dead make it, because it's the last piece to what should be a hell of a team in 2014. Hopefully this idea will encourage Philadelphia to trade up to 13. About the only thing Arizona's missing heading into this season is a speedy slot receiver, a position that's almost always underperformed for them. So plug in the fastest receiver in the draft and a guy born to play the slot. Good luck covering that.
Didn't see good values at pass rush, tight end or right tackle here, but Green Bay's fearsome WR depth of recent years is thinning down pretty quickly, too.
I'll be honest, I have no idea who Philadelphia should pick. Pass rush is their biggest need imo, but the d-line values here were all DT's I didn't see faring very well with all the time Chip Kelly's offense would keep them on the field. I also didn't like any of the WRs here as replacements for DeSean Jackson that could be picked reasonably. They do look a little thin at corner, though, and if Roby's upside is as big as his rap sheet, this pick will be golden.
Because they gave up 13 catches, 224 yards and 2 TDs to ONE GUY - T.Y. Hilton - in their epic playoff choke in Indianapolis.
Value stepped in over Andy Dalton's need for another receiver here. I've seen Shazier called this year's Alec Ogletree enough times to know he shouldn't fall too much farther, and he looks like a very nice fit in the Bengal D.
Hageman, an absolute athletic freak who plays like Warren Sapp some times and Damione Lewis other times, has also been due to come off the board for a while now. For instance, he'd be another pick I'd hate the Big Dead to make. San Diego almost got pushed off the field in Denver in the playoffs, so a more traditional anchor tackle like Louis Nix also looks sensible for them.
Although we're talking Cleveland here. No way they could actually luck their way into this, is there? Knowing Cleveland, they'll screw it up and take Derek Carr, whose super-charged roar up the mock board is something for which I have no explanation.
It still surprises me how speed-deficient the Saints are on offense. And that was last year when they still had Darren Sproles. I know I'm predicting way too many receivers to be picked in the first round, but the Saints need to start stretching the field again, then maybe pick up De'Anthony Thomas or Charles Sims in a later round to field the quarter-million screen passes they're still going to throw in that offense.
The Panthers have nothing at tackle or receiver and will happily take the big 'Bama mauler here.
The Patriots' website listed two safeties on their roster. Pryor's a ridiculous value by now, mainly dropping in this mock just because he's a safety and that isn't a key need for a lot of teams. So, psst, Les Snead, I think you can trade down and still get him if you want. Also considered Nix here because New England also really got pushed around by Denver in the playoffs.
Man, I hate the 49ers. Why do I give such great picks to the Rams' division opponents? Anyway, here's the best player available, and he's a classic pick of the current 49er regime, and they can start him at guard immediately and bump Mike Iupati over to center, getting weak link Jonathan Goodwin off the field and keeping weaker link Adam Snyder off the field.
Look out, it's a run on guards! The Broncos are insanely deep at every position except guard, where Zane Beadles insanely jumped from the AFC champs to... the Jagwires?!?!?!?, but Su'a-Filo (a two-punctuation-mark name!) is a near-perfect fit.
McGill just looks like a classic pick of the John Schneider/Pete Carroll regime, doesn't he? Kiper and McShay and Mayock will all tell us what a bad draft value he is, and why are they drafting secondary anyway when they have Sherman and Thomas and Chancellor? Well, that secondary did take a couple of hits in free agency, with Brandon Browner going to the Patriots and Walter Thurmond to the Giants. McGill's a prototype Seattle DB at 6' 3.5". They'll get him to work there where he wouldn't work for a lot of other teams.
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RamView Accu-Draft 2014: Pick #13
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| NFL.com |
Tons of possibilities for the Rams at #13, including Louisville safety Calvin Pryor, who would be RamView's pick here. He'd fill a pretty big hole in the defense and his playing style is right up Jeff Fisher's and Chuck Cecil's alley.
But if I'm trying to guess who the Rams are going to pick, I'm puzzled by the lack of a report that they had any safety in at Rams Park for a pre-draft visit. They've talked primarily to offensive tackles, wide receivers, corners and defensive tackles. That tells me their priorities are on those positions.
And here's where the fingernail-chewing sort of starts, because the way this mock is breaking down, the best value is probably Aaron Donald. There's a lot about Donald I like, but would the Rams really prioritize a third DT, and an undersized one at that, over a corner, when they couldn't cover anybody last year? I say not.
If they're thinking corner, Darqueze Dennard is a better value than Verrett, but everything you read about Verrett has "Jeff Fisher DB" all over it. He's feisty. Aggressive. Tough. Competes. He's a pest. He compares to, you guessed it, Cortland Finnegan. (The Tennessee version, I hope, not the St. Louis one.) Superb athlete with excellent instincts and quickness the Rams could plug in at nickel right away.
Verrett would be a bit of a reach at #13, I think. He's small and has had a lot of injuries. Dennard is a better all-around corner, but not nearly as well-suited to nickel as Verrett would be. The Rams probably will put Trader Les to work and trade down, but I really think Verrett's their guy.
Up next: a quick rip at the rest of the first round.
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RamView Accu-Draft 2014: Picks 8-12
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| Sports Illustrated |
Premature comparisons to Fran Tarkenton aside, think Norv Turner wouldn't like a natural rollout QB? Who knows, the Rams could actually see Johnny Football on opening day. Manziel almost has to be the pick if he falls to the Vikings. How could you pass on the chance to have a Manziel/Adrian Peterson backfield? IF Manziel's even partially the real deal, that's a backfield that could take the Vikings places in a hurry.
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| CBS Sports |
I just refuse to call a grown adult football player "Ha Ha". Similarly, Buffalo usually refuses to pick who the "experts" think they should pick, with offensive line, tight end or wide receiver usually projected here. Nobody thinks they'll put a high priority on replacing departed Pro Bowler Jairus Byrd? Buffalo seems to like to take the top player at his position when they can do it, and they've never been afraid to reach a little. Or more.
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| NewsOK.com |
Shouldn't the Lions have figured out by now they're going to need to be able to cover people in the division they play in? Have they had a decent corner since Dre Bly? Get that secondary fixed, already.
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| USA Today |
I just had the Vikings bail on the failed Christian Ponder experiment, so I might as well call for the Titans to bail on Jake Locker, too. Locker doesn't strike me as Ken Whisenhunt's kind of QB at all, (and he stinks, anyway) while the big, strong-armed pocket passer Bortles does. Corner's a strong need since they lost Alterraun Verner to Tampa, but with Gilbert off the hypothetical board, Bortles is becoming too big a value to pass up.
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| Wikipedia |
Hell, I'd be thinking QB here if I drafted for the Giants; Eli Manning was that brutal last season. I'm not sure he'll even get drafted in the Manning Family Fantasy League, even by himself. Jokes aside, Eli didn't get much help from his offensive line or most of his receivers in 2013, either. Zack Martin should be in play here, but Manning really needs somebody to target besides Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks, who was dreadful last year anyway, is a Colt now and no one there sounds very thrilled with Reuben Randle as a starter. That also puts someone like Odell Beckham very in play, but the Giants also don't have a TE to speak of, and Ebron is a TE/huge WR type who's pretty far ahead of the rest of the class at his position. Eli neds the big target and clicks pretty well with his TEs when he has a decent one to throw to, which wasn't last year.
And, up next, what do you know, it's the Rams again...
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RamView Accu-Draft 2014: Picks 3-7
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| NFL.com |
Johnny Football's got to tempt the Jagwires here. Gus Bradley just left a team that won a Super Bowl with a very mobile, undersized QB. If he's going to build a team like the one he left in Seattle, he needs his Russell Wilson, right?
The Russell Wilson lesson, though, is that you can find top QBs later in the draft, rather than make ill-advised reaches for immediately-overwhelmed QBs like Blaine Gabbert whose college systems never prepared them for the NFL, and some of us (ahem) really should have seen that instead of saying Gabbert should be drafted before Cam Newton. OK, enough of that.
The Manziel opportunity, though, is an opportunity the Jagwires have passed on before. They ignored the box-office bonanza they would have gotten with Tim Tebow, and drafted a PUNTER ahead of Russell Wilson. And, very much rebuilding under a defensive-minded coach, they're not going to worry about passing on a mobile QB again. Mack was a college sack machine, there's a major drop-off at pass rusher in this draft after him, and Bradley needs his Bruce Irvin right now more than he needs his Russell Wilson.
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| ESPN.com |
Two teams picking in the top 4 last year drafted right tackles and went on to the playoffs, so I think the stigma's off taking a tackle high but not plugging him in at LT right away. So I really, really hope that works again in 2014. Like the Rams, the Browns are in a very physical division and need to be able to run. With Matthews, Joe Thomas and Alex Mack on that line, they ought to be able to dictate some terms in the AFC North.
QB would make a ton of sense here, if you think a highly-drafted QB would ever survive in Cleveland. I say take Matthews, be pretty sure he's going to play forever, and build a wall that will stand a long time that you can put a lesser QB behind.
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| Liberty Voice |
This pick's probably up for grabs. Oakland needs to amass picks this year more than they need to pick an arguably undersized receiver, at least for this high in the draft, and YES, I realize we're a whole three picks away from where the Rams took Tavon Austin last year. Many talk about Detroit trading up for Watkins even though they already have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, which I thought was one of this year's very best free-agent signings. Oakland does need a downfield threat badly, and they do love their stopwatches out there, so they could easily keep Watkins for themselves.
If Watkins were 6'4", I'd be screaming the Rams HAVE to take him #2. But he's not. He's 6'1", he didn't really wow at the Combine except for his 40, and the Sports Illustrated that was just out talks about the trouble he's going to have gaining separation in the pros. Ray Sherman isn't going to coach him (or any other WR, frankly) up out of that.
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| Detroit Free-Press |
That is, if this pick is still Atlanta's. If it's Houston, this will be Johnny Manziel. If Houston took a QB at #1, it would be a no-brainer for the Rams to trade down to here, or just take Clowney #2 if there's no decent offer. A QB going first would set some dominoes in motion, and there'd be a good chance of Matthews or even Robinson slipping to this spot, with Watkins as the consolation prize.
Lewan would be fast friends with Jake Long but isn't the mauling run blocker I expect the Rams will favor. I doubt they would take him here. At the same time, Lewan put on a Lane Johnson-like show at the Combine and comes from one of the great offensive line factories. Atlanta's most massive need is to improve their pass rush, but with the top two rushers long gone, they'll have to concentrate on their equally big need on the other side of the ball. If they stay here. Maybe it'll be the Rams trading UP with the Falcons to get this next player?
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| Baltimore Sun |
Aaron Donald's the prototypical Lovie Smith DT, but upon further review, the Bucs are young and deep at his position, while having mostly dreck at WR after Vincent Jackson. Evans is far from a reach here, and while I still can't believe the Bucs are planning to go with Josh McCown as their starter, he did thrive pretty well last year throwing to two big WRs.
Picks 8 thru 12 on the way...
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RamView Accu-Draft 2014: Pick #2: Rams
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| USA Today |
If Clowney does go off the board first, I see the Rams as kind of stuck at #2, where they'll turn the pick they STOLE from Washington in the RGIII trade for an offensive lineman. An offensive lineman? JEFF FISHER NEVER DRAFTS OFFENSIVE LINEMEN IN THE FIRST ROUND. Well, I say, if the Undertaker can lose at Wrestlemania, then Fisher can take an o-lineman in the first this year. Except I think the Rams are going to take the wrong one.
RamView's pick at #2 would be Jake Matthews, a dominating run-blocker and the most accomplished pass-blocker in this draft. He's got an NFL bloodline beyond compare. He can play any position on the line and showed often the agility and field awareness to maintain a pocket while Johnny Manziel ran around on epic scrambles. What Matthews really only lacks is Robinson's hyped upside.
Now, mind you, Robinson is 6'5" 332 with the feet of Maksim Chmerkovskiy. He's a dominant, mauling run-blocker, considered the best in the draft at it by most. Auburn's system didn't call on him to be much of a pass-blocker, but with the lightness of foot and physical skills he displayed on the field and at the Combine, he's a player most believe can be coached up into a long-term franchise left tackle.
Since Robinson's often painted as the physical mauler with major upside, and Matthews is painted more as the "technician", Robinson looks like the best fit for what the Rams want to do. They play in the most physical division in the league and have to be able to establish the run in division games. Instead, in most of last year's division games, they got dominated up front. The 2014 Rams would likely start Robinson at left guard and use him to try to steam-roll opponents, and in 2-3 seasons, kick him out to left tackle where he can live up to all that potential.
It's all well and good, and it may even work. I sure hope it does if it comes to pass. It gets highly risky, though, to put the immobile, fragile Bradford behind a lineman who doesn't know how to pass-block. Robinson has not impressed RamView as a blocker who finishes his blocks. And the Rams have taken a great athlete whose college system did not prepare him to be an NFL tackle recently: 2009, Jason Smith, also #2 overall. Too many eerie parallels there for me.
Ultimately, I feel this is a replay of the Chris Long/Glenn Dorsey debate of 2008. Long was the safe pick who was as good as he was ever going to be. Dorsey was the player with all the upside. The Rams didn't go wrong with Long then; they wouldn't go wrong with Matthews now. I hope they don't go wrong if they do pick Robinson.
Up next: picks 3 thru 7.
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RamView Accu-Draft 2014: Pick #1: Houston
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| Sports Illustrated |
I promise a strange, unpredictable draft every year, and 2014 is no exception, really, even though there's consensus what player's going to be picked first. The big question is what team is going to draft first.
Clowney is the best overall player in the draft, and he appears to have the kind of talent seen in a player only every decade or so. The Texans are justified to keep the #1 pick and take him. It looks silly - they need a QB much more than they need a pass-rusher who doesn't fit their system - but when you have the chance to get the rare player, you take the rare player. Right?
But since Clowney's not a great need fit for the Texans, they're almost as justified to trade out of this pick, which is my guess at this time. Atlanta seems the likeliest to pull this off. Detroit has also been rumored. (Clowney, Suh and Ziggy Ansah on the same d-line? Good night.) If nobody pulls it off, Houston's best move will be to take him for themselves. Either way, I don't see Clowney as a factor for the Rams.
And they're up next.
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