Sunday, January 5, 2014

NFC Wild Card Game: San Francisco 23, Green Bay 20

We'll close Wild Card Weekend in Antarctica, where the NFL's hardiest fans are going to have to prove it again in sub-zero temperatures. The weird thing, as Troy Aikman nails in the pregame, is that the 49ers are the team built to be the cold weather team. And we've seen plenty of poor Packer play in the playoffs recently at Lambeau. Let's see if being the underdog treats them better than being the favorite.

Joe Buck and Aikman on the call for Fox, and if Erin Andrews is even there, I have little doubt she'll be dressed roughly like Kenny from South Park. Close, you can see her whole face and goofy Pippi Longstocking pigtails. What the hell is with those?

FIRST QUARTER
49ers won the toss and deferred, third team to do that this weekend (K.C. took the ball). Aaron Rodgers, already trying to stomp warmth into his feet, tromps out to the 26 of Green Bay's hideous brown turf. It looks like they're playing on a glorified sandlot. I guess afraid to warm up Rodgers at all, the Packers bizarrely run three straight times, and the 3rd-and-3 handoff is to John KUUUUUUUHN, who not only doesn't get it, he almost fumbles to ball away. CRAIG DAHL nearly blocks the punt that sets S.F. up at their 27.

Frank Gore behind Anthony Davis for 7 to start the Niners off. Colin Kaepernick beats a dog blitz with a short pass to Michael Crabtree, who wheels away from Morgan Burnett's woeful coverage and runs for 14. Sam Shields injured on the play. Got his left ankle rolled up from the side. Designed option run for Kaepernick only gets 1. Nice job by Mike Daniels to string it out. Kaepernick tries a quick hitch to Crabtree against another blitz, but Tramon Williams breaks it up. Plenty of time for Kaepernick against a 4-man rush on 3rd-down, though, and he hits Crabtree on the sideline for 13. Crabtree fumbled it but out of bounds. 49ers try to sweep from the GB39, but RYAN PICKETT beats center Jonathan Goodwin badly to blow it up for a 5-yard loss. Kaepernick goes to Crabtree AGAIN, beating Davon House for 13 on a back-shoulder throw. 49ers have to spend a timeout from the bench to save a delay of game as Kaepernick wasn't aware of the play clock. Jeff Fisher would let the Rams get flagged on that every time. As often happens, the play after the timeout is less than brilliant; Kaepernick and Gore cross wires on the handoff and the Packers stuff Kaepernick for a big loss. Jim Harbaugh goes for it on 4th-and-6, the Packers make the questionable choice to blitz, and guess what, IT'S CRABTREE way behind Micah Hyde in coverage all the way down to the 4. A 31-yard play. Are the Packers even aware they're playing against Michael Crabtree today? It sure doesn't look it. The 49ers spend their second timeout of the drive on 1st-and-goal. Rolling right and making little secret he's looking only for Vernon Davis, Kaepernick throws a pass into the end zone Williams should have intercepted. Good coverage forces a throwaway. After getting burned by him for 200 yards week 1, the Packers are making sure to cover Anquan Boldin so far. Of course, they're going to give up 400 to Crabtree, but they are stopping the old, slow guy. House breaks up a fade route to Crabtree to send Phil Dawson in. He chips it through. 49ers 3, Packers 0

OK, it'll take longer to read that paragraph than the drive actually took, I'll try to be more concise. ANOTHER handoff to Eddie Lacy gets Green Bay a big yard. Too bad they don't have a Super Bowl MVP all-Pro QB back there or anything. Who, of course, to make me look especially brilliant, gets sacked on 2nd down as every Packer lineman loses his matchup. Ray McDonald and Justin Smith get the sack after Ahmad Brooks' push started things. A false start gets Packer fans booing their home team halfway into the first quarter. Nothing open at all for Rodgers on 3rd down and he ends up throwing a bad pass at Jarrett Boykin. 6-and-out definitely not the start the Packers were hoping for.


Terrible punt doesn't even cross midfield. I'll just write myself down for my third loss of the weekend now. Continuing to look more dazed than Walking Dead extras, the Packers let Gore run through them for 9, then up the middle for an easy 5. Smoke route to Boldin gets 9.5 on 2nd-10. Gore for 4 from there down to the GB25. Boldin beats Hyde down to the 11 on 2nd-10 again. The Packers do hold there, stuffing Gore on 1st down and House getting away with holding Crabtree at the goal line when Kaepernick attempts an end zone slant to him. Another chippie for Dawson. 6-0

49ers have kept Randall Cobb from doing much on kick returns so far. Green Bay will start from their 23 here. And right now, it doesn't look like the Packers will score on the 49ers if you give them a week. Brooks beats woeful blocking by RT Don Barclay, who throws himself on the ground, and T.J. Lang to hit Rodgers and force a fumble Lang luckily recovers. Justin Smith nearly buries Rodgers to blow up a screen on 2nd down, and they actually run the we-give-up draw to make it 9-and-out as those great Packers fans loudly boo their offense off the field.

Green Bay's blocking is bad, their offensive game plan is bad and looking for nothing downfield, and yep, I fell for it from the Packers again. In my defense, I thought the 49ers could do this, but I thought Rodgers' return would pump a lot of life into them. Not happening. At all.

SECOND QUARTER
Have to correct a refereeing comment I made earlier - Ed Hochuli is refereeing this game. I thought I recognized Jerome Boger's number but I was way off.

Kaepernick ended the 1st quarter with a scramble up the middle for 7.  Gore plunges across midfield for a first down, then Kaepernick gets all night and Boldin beats House at the sideline for another 17. Gore dives for 4 down to the GB28. Then, whoops, Kaepernick floats one too much for Vernon Davis and Williams beats him out for the ball and the INT. He winds crossfield and out to the 30 with the return, making sure to jack Kaepernick helmet-to-helmet at the end. Green Bay certainly needed the spark.

Lacy up the middle for 3, then a toss for a couple more. Rodgers MUST make something happen here. He hard-counts the 49ers into showing where their blitzes are coming from three times and hits KUUUUUHN over the middle for 8. Comeback to James Jones for 8 more across midfield as the Packers go no-huddle. Lacy grinds out another 1st down. 7-yard comeback to Jordy Nelson off play-action. Lacy takes a stretch handoff for another first down at the SF32. Rodgers steps away from Aldon Smith and hits TE Andrew Quarless over the middle for 8 more. Rodgers hangs tough and hits Nelson again at the 13. Toss right to Lacy for another 1st down at the 9. End zone pass for Jones broken up by Perrish Cox. Lacy plows down to the 5. Third and goal, and it's Rodgers just being Rodgers, rolling right and throwing a bullet to Nelson, beating Tramaine Brock this time for the TD. Packers 7, 49ers 6

The Packers actually double-teamed Brooks a lot of that drive because of the early trouble he'd given them and it worked. David Bakhtiari has held his own against Aldon Smith. I also think the Packers were at least trying to push their routes further downfield, but no one at Fox is interested in giving us a clue about that.

5:44 till halftime. LaMichael James brings the kick across the 30. Gore off LT for 3. Davis wide open for 10 on a comeback vs. soft zone coverage. Kaepernick has to scramble from his 45 and breaks off a 42 yard run. He caught Green Bay in deep man coverage and got a perfectly-timed block downfield from Gore at midfield. Pitch right to Kendall Hunter to the 10, but Gore comes back in and punches it in from there. Green Bay lined up with a big gap across from LG, which is exactly where Gore ran, dragging M.D. Jennings the last three yards. LB Andy Mulumba also played it terribly, way overpursuing from the start of the play to leave the edge wide open. 49ers 13, Packers 7

Packers at their 24 with 2:42 till the half. Draw to Lacy looked like a big play until Donte Whitner closed on it lightning quick and held it to 3. With the pocket collapsing on him, Rodgers escapes and scrambles to the 37 at the 2:00 warning. Rodgers gets a terrible pass picked off but it was a free play because Brooks jumped offside. He fires to Nelson at the SF39, over the middle, for 20. On 2nd-8, Rodgers looks deep, dances back and forth, then sprints out and hits James Starks on the far sideline for 15. Packers have to take a timeout to save a delay of game. 6 to Nelson with the clock still running. At 0:33, a catch by Nelson that would have gone down to the 5 is lost by hands to the face on Bakhtiari. OUCH. Sends them back to the 29. Comeback to Jones for 8, and a throw at Starks' feet is a good thing, stopping the clock at :04. Harbaugh calls a timeout to freeze Mason Crosby, which is physically possible tonight, but he still hits from 35 at the gun. 13-10

New York Daily News
HALFTIME

My eternal thanks to Google's useless piece-of-shit Blogger platform for locking me up trying to download a simple picture and forcing me to rewrite the halftime recap.


First note: next year, bet the under wild card weekend, the over the rest of the way.





When Packers have ball in 2nd half: 49ers need to answer Packers changing their protections to put more attention on Brooks. Aldon Smith has to start making them pay for double-teaming on the other side. Also shocking how little we've heard NaVarro Bowman's or Patrick Willis' names. Rodgers got a lot more comfortable in the pocket in the 2nd, and S.F. isn't likely to adjust back with any blitzing, so their big names need to step up.

When 49ers have the ball: they're gashing the Packer D but aren't making them pay with TDs. G.B. did adjust coverage to quit allowing Crabtree to run wild, so Kaepernick has to rely on the guys he's relied on all season, Boldin and Davis, and take care of the ball. Packer pass rush is hurting bad without Clay Matthews, and with all the trouble Kaepernick has had with blitzing this year, I'd bring it harder at him in the 2nd half, and it seems upside down that Dom Capers would have to be told by anybody to blitz more.

I'm expecting a tight one down to the wire.

THIRD QUARTER
After James' kick return is only to the 18, Kaepernick unbelievably has to waste a timeout before the half even starts! Especially with a mobile guy like him, why not keep it, run around and see what you get? As always, the play after the timeout is poor, Kaepernick missing Crabtree wildly at the sideline while under pressure. Boldin is blanketed by House on a deep route and Kaepernick overthrows him by 5 yards. Kaepernick tries to scramble on 3rd down but Daniels drags him down from behind for a sack. Just a 4-man rush there. 49ers fans had to be hoping for a much more composed start to the half than this. What did the coaching staff do at halftime, play craps?


Packers start from their 44, swing pass to Lacy for 3. Hey, there's Bowman, blowing up a run for Lacy that Justin Smith finishes off for a loss. Amoeba defense by the Niners, Rodgers steps up the rush and fires deep to Jones inside the 5, where he comes back for the ball against a double-team and then completely misplays it. Missed big-play opportunity for Green Bay becomes a 3-and-out instead.

49ers at their 18 again. Kaepernick takes a designed draw out to the 34. Defying all physical and medical logic, Aldon Smith is questionable the rest of the game due to cramps. Shouldn't that happen when it's about 80 degrees warmer? Play-action on 2nd-6 and Kaepernick hits Crabtree open in front of House for 22. Bad coverage and tackling there. Anthony Dixon's wide open in the flat for a 10-yard catch. Josh Boyd stuffs Quinton Patton for a loss on an attempted end-around. 3rd-and-5 at the GB34, Kaepernick uses another timeout. You know you don't have six of those, right? As usual, the play after the timeout is a major failure. The Packers bring at least a couple extra rushers and Nick Perry sacks Kaepernick for a big loss.

Fair catch puts the Packers at their 16. Starks bounces outside for 6. Aldon Smith has overcome his cramps in Green Bay's oppressive heat and is back in the game. But Sparks belts out another 8. The 49ers answer by sacking Rodgers for a big loss. Single-blocked Brooks closed down the pocket and Aldon cramped Rodgers' style after he pulled the ball down. Looked like he had a couple of open receivers, too. The 49ers bring Willis on a rare blitz and sack Rodgers again. Brooks gets the sack; he is just abusing Barclay 1-on-1 and the Packers are idiotically leaving him out there with no help again. Rodgers launches very deep for Nelson on 3rd-and-a-mile but Tarell Brown breaks it up.

49ers start near midfield. Kaepernick one-hops a quick out for Crabtree. Datone Jones is in for G.B. after a knee injury to Mulumba and sets the edge perfectly on an attempted Hunter sweep; he gets stuffed for no gain. Jarrett Bush holds Crabtree to 5 on a crossing route for the 3-and-out.

Punt just barely sneaks into the end zone. Lacy up the middle for 8 off center Evan Dietrich-Smith's block, with Bowman preventing a really big run. Lacy keeps his roll going by blasting through Whitner for 6. Another 7 for Lacy on a pitch left. No surprise Lacy gets it again; he bounces off Tony Jerod-Eddie for another first down. Quick screen to Nelson for 6 across midfield off a run-fake. Nice. Starks fires up the middle for 10 off a strong block by Josh Sitton at the line and Dietrich-Smith getting downfield to pick off a LB. Packers have certainly fooled me with their dedication to establishing the run this half.

FOURTH QUARTER
Jones badly misplays another deep ball down the sideline that should have been a 35-yard back-shoulder catch inside the 5. He actually swatted at the ball like he was afraid it was going to hit him in the face. Tight coverage by Brock, but Jones has been far from clutch tonight. Starks cuts back for 6. THEY HAND OFF TO STARKS ON THIRD AND FOUR? That's stopped handily by McDonald. The Packers go for it on 4th-and-2 instead of trying a 48-yard FG. Rodgers and blind Ed Hochuli turn a near-disaster into gold. Rodgers is about to get buried by McDonald for a sack, but Dietrich-Smith, beaten badly on the play, gets away with a massive hold to keep McDonald from finishing Rodgers off. Aaron barely escapes and hits Cobb for 26 down inside the 5. Rodgers also slapped McDonald's hand away to help avoid the sack. Still impossible without the hold. Lacy cuts back and drives inside the 1. TD KUUUUUUHN on the up handoff to put the Packers on top. Packers 17, 49ers 13 Never saw this coming after that first quarter.

Nice directional kick by Mason Crosby but James fires up the sideline all the way out to the 37 anyway. Crosby has to make the tackle. House breaks up a 2nd-and-4 bomb for Davis, but Kaepernick scrambles for 23 on 3rd down, with Daniels getting way out of his gap. I'm starting to get the bad feeling I'm not going to get all of this game on the DVR. Only set it for 3 and a half hours. House gets called for holding Crabtree and is injured on the play. First down 49ers at the GB28. After the timeout, Kaepernick fires a pretty TD pass to Davis, a back-shoulder pass down the seam between Burnett and A.J. Hawk in coverage. Not a clutch drive for the Packer defense there. 49ers 20, Packers 17

Bowman and Justin Smith stuff Lacy for no gain. Left tackle Bakhtiari took a shot to the head down on the goal line before the Packers' last TD and is being checked for a concussion. That may be a major injury because he had done a pretty good job on Aldon Smith. Marshall Newhouse is his replacement. Nelson fakes out Bowman after a 6-yard curl and gets 11 out to the 45. DROP by Lacy in the flat with what should have been 10 more, he was wide open. Draw to him for 5. 3rd-5, Rodgers escapes a collapsing pocket and shovel-flips to KUUUUUHN for 8. Lacy cuts back and runs through Justin Smith and Willis for 8, neither of which happens often. Rodgers ducks Cox on a blitz, gets about 5 more seconds in the pocket, and Cobb works with him beautifully, breaking a deep route out to the sideline and gaining 25 inside the 10. Packers use their first timeout with 6:12 left. As usual, poor play after the timeout; Bowman blows up a draw to Cobb for a loss. Nice protection on 2nd down but Rodgers has to roll and throw it away. Aldon Smith not only got held by Barclay on the play, Lang then absolutely clobbered him from behind. 49er coverage comes up clutch again on 3rd-and-goal, forcing Rodgers to scramble, only down to the 5. Holding on Sitton is declined, and Crosby chips us to a tie game with 5:06 left. 20-20

Kaepernick starts off from his 20. Crabtree gets 10 off a crossing route after making Perry miss. Play-action bomb for Davis is overthrown by at least 5 yards. Mmm-kay. Blanket coverage by Williams anyway. Hyde blows an INT on a quick out intended for Boldin. 3rd-10, Kaepernick steps up from the 4-man rush and hits Crabtree for 17. Crabtree lost Bush most likely because Kaepernick was on the run. Gore stuffed for 1 at the SF48. Play-action pass to Gore for 11 and another first down. Packer pass rush appears to have left the game early. Still 2:00 left, guys. 49ers at the GB40.

Trying to bleed off some clock, Harbaugh goes to a very heavy alignment and calls a handoff to Gore for a couple. Davis drops a tough pass at the 33 with 1:13 to go. Oh, for crying out loud, Gore picks up an idiot blitz on 3rd-and-8 and Kaepernick scrambles around left end and down the sideline for 10. 6 more for Gore puts Phil Dawson in chip shot range at the GB22. Packers start burning timeouts at 1:02. Gore bounces outside for 2. Green Bay spends their last timeout at 0:56. Out of that weird 3-back backfield, Gore weaves for 3 yards and an apparent first down. He got it, and it'll be down to Dawson.

Just beautiful, here comes my second freaking 0-for-3 game of the weekend. Yep, Dawson sticks it from 33 at the gun to send the 49ers to Carolina.

Final: 49ers 23, Packers 20

POSTGAME SHOW
Kaepernick gets the weekend's last POTG for his scrambling; the 49ers don't win the game without it. He had big scrambles, 42 and 23 yards, on each of their TD drives.

That'll be a war in Carolina next weekend. The Panthers made Kaepernick look awful with their blitzing when they met in the regular season, sacking him 6 times and holding him to 16 yards rushing. The 49ers will play better than that game, though. They didn't have Crabtree then and it was Aldon Smith's first game back from rehab. They sacked Cam Newton 4 times in that game and the Panthers got away with a couple of fumbles. And who do you want on your sideline, a Harbaugh brother on a road playoff run or the erstwhile Riverboat Ron? Ha, little did I expect the 49ers to be actually favored, by 1.5. Didn't think I'd be going chalk there. NFC West rules.

We'll just stop talking about RamView's fictional gambling record at this point. Suffice it to say you'd be smart to bet against these predictions: Seattle covers 8 over the Saints; Patriots beat the Colts but give Indy the 7; 49ers outright over Carolina; Broncos win but give San Diego the 10; over in all 4 games.

The Packers have some business to do this offseason. Bakhtiari looks like a keeper at LT but Barclay looked like a joke at RT. Rodgers got almost no receiving help from his TEs. Pass rush suffered badly without Clay Matthews. All things to work on in the offseason, probably pass rush first.

More long-winded recaps and terrible predictions next weekend!

-$-

AFC Wild Card Playoff: San Diego 27, Cincinnati 10


There's a silver lining for me in the cloud of the Rams not making the playoffs. Knowing the NFL, had the Rams made the playoffs, they would have been scheduled for today, and I'm sitting in about a foot of snow right now with a blizzard still raging. In other words, I'd have been home watching the playoffs on TV anyway.

The Saints overcame a long-running (road) playoff jinx yesterday, while the Chiefs were unable to end their long playoff victory drought. Where will the Bengals, with Marvin Lewis' 0-4 lifetime record fall? How much will the weather affect today's games? Did you know Philip Rivers is 9-2 lifetime in cold weather?

Nantz and Simms calling the action for CBS.

FIRST QUARTER
Really? It's a balmy 40 degrees in Cincinnati? Look out what's coming your way, then, whenever it comes. Bengals won the toss and deferred. Ryan Matthews up the middle for 8 behind great push by center Nick Hardwick. Philip Rivers hits Danny Woodhead out on the flank for a first down. Brandon Thompson trips up Matthews for a couple. Draw to Woodhead leaves 3rd-and-5. Corner blitz buries Rivers for a sack before he can even finish his drop. Don't know how Rivers couldn't see Chris Crocker coming before the snap.

Brandon Tate loses 3 trying to sweep right with the punt return, so Andy Dalton will start from his 17. To be known as The Law Firm from this point forward, BenJarvus Green-Ellis busts up the middle for 8 behind Andrew Whitworth. He motions up the middle for another 7 off strong blocks by Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler and center Kyle Cook. Dalton misses A.J. Green once but hits him for 9 on 2nd down. Law Firm up the middle for another 1st. Kendall Reyes deflects a screen intended for Green; I have no idea why Dalton thought he could get that ball over him. Impressive push up front by Corey Liuget helps the Chargers bury Giovani Bernard for a 3-yard loss. Good pressure by Cam Thomas, who split a double-team and was held with no call, still forces Dalton to throw quickly to Marvin Jones short of the 1st.

Fair catch will start San Diego at their 14. Matthews sweeps right and cuts back behind some good receiver blocks for 8. Ronnie Brown jukes Crocker and takes a screen for 9. Rivers gets all day to throw on 2nd down and hits Ladarius Green for 22 across midfield. Matthews runs through Ray Maualuga for 8. Hardwick stays down after the play. He took a blow to the head and that might be it for him today, a significant injury for San Diego. Unless Brown just runs for 11 behind his replacement Rich Ohrnberger anyway. 4 more for Matthews down to the CIN24. Woodhead dances up the middle for 5.998, as measured by OH OF COURSE JEFF TRIPLETTE IS WORKING A PLAYOFF GAME BECAUSE IT'S NOT LIKE HE REFEREES EVERY GAME POORLY OR ANYTHING. Christ, what is the requirement to referee a playoff game this year? You have both eyes? Matthews has to battle to even get a foot, but it's still a 1st down inside the 20. Carlos Dunlap absolutely punks D.J. Fluker with a bull rush but blows the sack, letting Rivers escape to throw a release route to Woodhead up the far sideline and down to the 7. Woodhead sprints up the middle on 2nd-and-goal for a 5-yard TD. 6-minute, 86-yard TD drive as the Curse of Marvin Lewis isn't going down without a fight. Chargers 7, Bengals 0

Tate swings all the way out to the 36 on the kick return with no blocking, and is a free agent after the season, Rams Park. Bernard grinds through Manti Te'o and others with a dumpoff for a first down near midfield as the quarter ends.

SECOND QUARTER
After blowing the snap on 1st down, now it's Andy Dalton running read option in the playoffs, and he gets out for 9. Poor pass for Bernard open in the flat, though, forces a punt. The Chargers blow a timeout fearing a fake.

Chargers called for holding during the punt and will have to start from their 5 this time. You know something you haven't seen a lot of in the playoffs so far? Special teams penalties, RAY RAY. The Rams are not going to any playoffs until they significantly clean up that garbage. San Diego 3-and-outs after Rivers overthrows Keenan Allen badly on a wide open slant on 3rd-and-2.

Bengals start at their 40 after the punt and Bernard goes up the middle for 7. Some Guy named Lawrence holds him to 2 on 2nd down. The Law Firm, though, then serves up a 7-yard run. Nice lead blocking by Cook and Andre Smith. Play-action to Jermaine Gresham in the flat for 8. Middle screen to Bernard breaks wide open all the way down to the 20. I wonder if the Rams could run that play with Tavon Austin in the backfield. It was pretty sweet. Bernard now busts up the middle for 9, and his line pretty much pushes him all the way down to the 4 to set up 1st-and-goal. Melvin Ingram steams around LT unblocked on 2nd-and-goal and hits Dalton, but he somehow gets the throw off to Gresham in the flat for a Bengal TD, beating Jarrett Johnson. 7-7

5:53 till halftime, Chargers at their 25. They start with Matthews getting 4 on a draw and Maualuga staying down after the play. Crocker holds Matthews to 3 on a dumpoff. Rivers has to dodge about 3 sacks on 3rd down, even though Cincinnati only rushed 3, and comes up just short on the scramble. Second straight 3-and-out.

From his 32, Dalton rolls and throws to Marvin Jones at the sideline, who the Chargers' coaching staff and I agree did not catch the ball. The ball squirts loose while he's sliding out of bounds. He didn't control it "throughout the process". Triplette says it's a catch. Really? It's a possession when the ball squirts more than halfway out of the receiver's hands and scrapes along the ground? Really? Chargers got screwed there, imho. And now here's Triplette immediately with the makeup call, holding on Gresham.

Quick correction from yesterday: Bill Vinovich refereed the Rams' loss at Arizona, not Seattle. Triplette worked the Seattle game. So NOW I can complain about a moron ref making holding calls today when Robert Quinn got held a thousand times last week without a flag.

At the 2:00 warning, on 2nd-and-19, Dalton bombs away down the far sideline and hits Jones, who burned Richard Marshall for 49. Not exactly clutch D there by the Chargers. Bengals now at the SD16. The Chargers, though, follow their non-clutch play with a super-clutch play. Bernard burns Donald Butler out of the backfield for a catch down to the 2, but Butler hacks it out from behind and Marshall recovers the loose ball and returns it to the 11. A VERY large bullet dodged there.

The Bengals are trying to argue Bernard didn't have possession, but he got it at the 8, took 2 steps and lost it at the 3 without bobbling it or anything. It's not like he was juggling the ball for 5 yards. Simms calls it a "bang-bang play" - the hit was five yards after the catch! It's more like bang...tick...tick...bang. It's a fumble, Triplette. Hey, he does get this one right after review. Chargers ball.

HEY! A GUY JUST ACCIDENTALLY BUMPED INTO TRIPLETTE'S ELBOW! THROW HIM OUT OF THE GAME!

No, holding on San Diego moves them back to the 8, and they're probably looking just to run out the half. Cincinnati doesn't let them, stuffing three runs and calling their timeouts to force a punt with 1:27 left.

Forget about Tate as a free agent, Rams Park. Idiot runs backwards TEN yards with the punt and loses six. This isn't high school, dummy. Bengals at their 31. Dalton gets killed on a second-straight blitz but hit Green for 12, then Mohammed Sanu for 16. Screen pass goes incomplete at 0:16. They're a completion out of FG range. Gresham makes a nice overhead catch at the sideline for 12, but the clock does not stop even though he went out of bounds. Apparently you can't stop the clock by running out of bounds backwards. The last seconds of the half are as confusing as Triplette can possibly make them. Gresham's catch is reviewed even though the Bengals ran a spike play. His catch looks like the Calvin Johnson Rule but isn't because his forward progress was stopped. After the review, the Bengals have to rush the FG attempt because the spike play never actually happened, but Mike Nugent nails it from 47. Phew. Bengals 10, Chargers 7

HALFTIME
Looks like I'm well on my way to going 0-3 on the over/under, btw. Neither team is stopping the run especially well, which means more in the box in the 2nd half, which means the better passing game wins. San Diego's blitz has come within a hair of getting Dalton several times and I'm guessing they'll bring it harder. The Chargers have to do a much better job getting the ball downfield. Antonio Gates and rookie sensation Keenan Allen have done nothing. With Matthews pulling more attention into the box, we may finally hear from the Charger receivers after halftime. Same for A.J. Green, who's almost been a non-factor. The passing game that steps it up in the 2nd half should advance.

THIRD QUARTER
The Law Firm bobs and weaves for 12 to open the half for Cincinnati. The Chargers hold from there. They rush only three on 3rd-and-4 but still flush Dalton and Liuget trips him up for a sack. Bengals wasted some good field position there and punt from midfield.


Chargers at their 20. Rivers looks deep but dumps off to Matthews for 9. Chargers also go no-huddle. Matthews gets one first down, Allen gets another on a crossing pattern at midfield on 3rd-and-1. Vontaze Burfict stays down after the play but comes back 2 plays later. Two Woodhead carries go nowhere but Rivers beats a blitz on 3rd down and hits Ladarius Green for 8. With Rivers getting forever to throw from the CIN 37, oh Lorde, it could be Royal. Dre Kirkpatrick blew his jam badly at the line and Eddie Royal burned them deep down the near sideline for 33. Green brilliantly catches a fade pass over Crocker for the TD. Chargers 14, Bengals 10

Another excellent drive by the Chargers, 80 yards in 5:40. Way to go Ken Whisenhunt for getting the downfield passing game going for San Diego, and way to go RamView for yet again nailing the halftime adjustments. As much as I ever will, anyway.

Tate out to the 30 again with the kick return. He has given the Bengals good field position all day. Sack by Jarrett Johnson on first down after Reyes flushes Dalton. Not the start Cincy needed. San Diego brings a big blitz on 2nd down and forces a throwaway. It's just a 3-man rush on 3rd down, smart on 3rd-and-14, but somebody called Thomas Keiser flushes Dalton anyway, and Dalton not only comes up way short trying to dive for the 1st down, he coughs up the ball and it bounces out to someone named Jahleel Addae at the CIN46. That's the Chargers ball, as Dalton makes a quick run to the Hall of Playoff Chokers.

End around to Royal for 9 with Allen throwing a big block. Woodhead busts up the middle for 9 with Burfict well out of position. The Bengals bring a blitz on 3rd-and-5 at the 25 but Rivers hangs in and hits Allen for 12 with a sweet sideline pass. Woodhead seems good for 5 on every carry; strong blocks by Ohrnberger and Jeromey Clary. Maualuga stops him on 2nd down, though, and Margus Hunt about pushes a double team back into Rivers to force a dangerous throwaway. That was a must-stop for Cincinnati. Nick Novak chips it in from 25. Chargers 17-10

Rain starts falling on the Bengals' next possession, and might be raining on their whole season, now, too. They stuff Bernard on 1st down. Te'o's blitz forces Dalton to throw it away on 2nd down. They blitz even harder on 3rd down and panic Dalton into a DREADFUL sideline underthrow picked off easily by Shareece Wright, who brings it back to the 6. Just a monumentally stupid throw by Dalton, who I doubt was even barely looking where he was throwing.

James Harrison rips Woodhead's helmet off, and Triplette catches him, to set San Diego up at the 3. Then a delay of game moves the ball back to the 8. Shotgun draw to Woodhead gets them down to the 1, where it'll be 3rd-and-goal to start the 4th.

FOURTH QUARTER
Major play by Maualuga to stuff a SLOW-developing run by Ronnie Brown for a big loss. Another chip shot by Novak will leave the Bengals looking for two scores. Chargers 20, Bengals 10

Holding on the kick return starts the Bengals at the 11. Butler stuffs Bernard for a loss as Cincy's run game continues to get nowhere in the 2nd half. Go back and read my halftime adjustments, dummies. A.J. Green gets away with a pushoff for a 12-yard sideline catch, but Jarrett Johnson buries Bernard on 1st down. Swing to Bernard beats a blitz for 12 more after Ingram blows an open-field tackle. Jones makes a sideline catch at midfield for 12, and Dalton shovels to Bernard wide open in the middle for 15 at the SD35. Just as I'm about to scold San Diego for dropping into prevent defense way too early, it's ANOTHER IDIOTIC FREAKING THROW by Dalton, picked off by Ingram and thrown well behind Tyler Eifert, who wasn't open even for a nanosecond. How did Cincinnati make the playoffs if this is all the brain Andy Dalton has? Start the bus, Marvin.

Chargers start working on the clock from midfield. Woodhead and Brown combine for 9 - did Ryan Matthews die and I missed it?  - but Wallace Gilberry swallows a handoff to the fullback to force 4th down. As Nantz puts it, the Chargers fail to "seduce them into jumping early" and punt.

Bengals at their 12, 8:06 left. Hearing footsteps now in my opinion, Dalton scrambles for 1 on 1st down, then hits Ram-for-a-day Andrew Hawkins for his first catch for 11. Jones at the sideline for 8. If CBS cared enough to show us who's covering A.J. Green today, I'd be able to consider the guy for POTG. Bernard bounces outside for 12, and then, here's Green, UNBELIEVABLY dropping a bomb right in his hands that would have been a TD. Good luck rebounding from that, Cincinnati. Bubble screen to Hawkins doesn't get much, but now that Dalton's discovered he's on the team, Dalton goes to him again on 3rd down and he draws a holding call. 1st down at midfield, a near-sack by Keiser forces a throwaway. Play-action throw for Green on 3rd-and-3 is way off, as he's blanketed by POTG candidate Wright. CURIOUS decision to go deep for Jones on 4th-and-3 comes up a cropper, not even close, as the Bengals are booed off the field by their own fans with 4:44 left. Marvin, Marvin, Marvin. What are we going to do with you?

Three handoffs and a punt chew up Cincinnati's timeouts with 4:29 left. That's a lot of time to score 10 points; Mike McCoy might have played it too close to the vest there.

Bengals at their 19 with 4:22 to go. Jones open in the prevent zone for 22. Short out to Gresham for 10. Jones gets 11 on a cross and gets out of bounds. The Chargers now blitz 2 DBs and one leaps in front of Dalton, forcing him to pull the ball down while Cam Thomas sacks him. 2nd down pass is nowhere close. Bernard DROPS a dumpoff on 3rd-13. Dalton gets a lot of time to throw on 4th down but can't hit Jones, and the Bengals want but don't get a penalty. I didn't really see anything. Also, did A.J. Green actually play today? Are he and Ryan Matthews off playing Parcheesi somewhere?

That more than likely does it for San Diego, especially when Ronnie Brown sticks a pitchfork in a Cincinnati defense that lost complete interest in tackling anyone for a 58-yard TD run.

POSTGAME SHOW

Surprise pick for POTG, because I've never known him to be all that good a player, is Chargers cornerback Shareece Wright. He had the big INT to set up the FG that put the Chargers up 20-10, and any time I looked for A.J. Green, Wright had him covered. That as much as anything just killed Dalton, who's lost without A.J. Andy and A.J. can share the Golden Goat Award at the Bengals' postseason dinner. Honorable POTG mentions to Melvin Ingram and to Rich Ohrnberger, who filled in well at center after Nick Hardwick went out with a neck stinger and kept the Charger offense humming.

I mistakenly thought the Colts were automatically going to Denver yesterday, so I have to quickly preview two playoff games now. The Colts unfortunately are the one team whose chances I don't like very much in Foxborough. Too many injuries in the secondary. The Chargers have already won in Denver this season, and John Fox is extremely difficult to trust as a playoff coach. They did a good job against the Bronco running game in both games, especially in Denver, holding Knowshown Moreno to 18 yards. I think I like them to at least cover what's probably going to be a pretty big pointspread.

RamView's gambling weekend is going about as dreadfully as expected, 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U, with my "upset" pick still waiting to stab me in the back. If you gamble on sports, kids, at least don't listen to me.

The Bengals aren't as far away as this game made them look. I said after last season's playoff loss that they needed to add more offensive speed. They added Bernard and Eifert, and as they mature, they might be enough to get Green some breathing space when he needs it in the clutch. A lot of Bengal fans are going to say what they really need is a QB, but what they have around Dalton isn't enough. Go get some more speed.

On to the Frozen Tundra.

-$-

Saturday, January 4, 2014

NFC Wild Card Playoff: New Orleans 26, Philadelphia 24

ESPN.com
Well, I don't know how you top that last game, but these two high-flying offenses have a chance. In an attempt to remain culturally relevant, I'll have to say to expect much more Daft Punk tempo tonight than Michael Buble tempo. Let's see which proves to be the stronger disadvantage between Chip Kelly's playoff inexperience and Sean Payton's road playoff woes.

SNF crew, Michaels, Collinsworth and Michelle Tafoya on the call for NBC.


FIRST QUARTER
Eagles win the toss and defer - really? Give Drew Brees the ball first? Kelly's first interesting call, and the game hasn't even started. Short, fittingly, kick to Darren Sproles returned to the 27. I thought the Saints would miss Pierre Thomas, but here's Mark I'm-Not-A-Draft-Bust! Ingram rounding right end for 17. Super job by Zach Strief to seal the edge, and for those nostalgic for Steve Spagnuolo, a terrible missed tackle on the edge by Bradley Fletcher. Swing to Sproles for 6 gets N.O. to midfield. Ingram bulls up the middle for a first down. Play action drag route to Ben Watson incomplete, covered well by Trent Cole dropping back in coverage. Brees catches Sproles beating Connor Barwin - yes, that's a defensive end - badly down the sideline but underthrows him. Ouch. That should have been a TD. Also, good luck with all these ridiculous zone blitzes, Eagles. Brees has to blow a timeout less than 2:00 into the game. The Saints get it back from the referee, though, because of "debris on the field", a long piece of tape Brees picked up and cleared away from his center's feet without any significant loss of time.

That referee, by the way, is Bill Vinovich, AND OH MY FREAKING GOD HOW DID THIS COMPLETE BUFFOON AND WASTE OF GENETIC MATERIAL QUALIFY TO WORK A PLAYOFF GAME? Vinovich called Rams' losses in Carolina and Seattle, two of the worst officiating butcher jobs I have ever seen. AND HE'S WORKING A PLAYOFF GAME? Something the f*ck is seriously wrong here.

On 3rd-and-10, Brees settles for a short crossing route to Kenny Stills that only gets 8. They'll go for it on 4th-and-2, but Brees dipped his knee trying to hard-count the Eagles and drew a false start. Would have been nice if Vinovich had known what a false start was in Carolina. Very short punt fielded by DeSean Jackson at the 16. Looked like the Saints were going to march right for a TD. Brees actually kind of hurt them, with the underthrow and the false start.

Eagles come out firing, but Nick Foles misses an open Jackson air-mailing one to the ball boy. Former Eagle Brodrick Bunkley trips up LeSean McCoy for 3. Plenty of time for Foles on 3rd down, though, and Zack Ertz is wide open over the middle for 18. McCoy off left tackle for 2. Rollout screen to Jason Avant only good for another 2. 3rd down this time is a mess, they set up a screen for McCoy but he's running something else and doesn't turn around. 49 yard punt by DONNIE JONES, rolled ten.

Saints at their 13. Somebody called Khiry Robinson goes off left tackle for 4. Hey, the Rams don't draft all the West Texas A&M players. The Eagles blow up a screen for Ingram, and Brees again settles for a short dumpoff, to Ingram, on 3rd-and-long. Poor punt only makes the Eagles' 47.

Two drives, and so far Jimmy Graham's only a rumor and the Saints are showing little ability to stretch the field. The Eagles watched tape of the Rams game!

Now we've got Foles running the read option, for 3 out to midfield. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette both come in UNBLOCKED to stuff McCoy for a big loss, though. A run play where no one blocks EITHER defensive end? McCoy's limited to 7 on a dumpoff and we're punting again. Jones' punt is brutally botched by the coverage unit inside the 3 - I think one of the idiots actually kicked it into the end zone - putting the Saints at their 20.

Um, where's all the offense in this game? Ingram plows for a first down on 2 carries. And now there's a downfield pass, and there's Graham in the seam, good for 22. Brees then goes deep and throws a TERRIBLE pass, fair caught by BRADLEY FLETCHER inside the 5. Intended receiver Stills didn't look open down the sideline at all, Brees' throw didn't even come down that near him, I have no idea what was going on. I do believe, though, that the Saints have a pretty poor record when Brees throws an INT.

Foles to Riley Cooper for 6. He gets tangled up with Illini rookie DE Glenn Foster the next play, but doesn't get sacked and gets off a throwaway. Avant over the middle for another 6. I don't watch the Eagles much, but don't they have the leading rusher in the NFL or something? There he is, up the middle for 5. Oh, is this next play sweet - play-action, fake screen pass, Foles hits Brent Celek down the seam for 24. Collinsworth is talking about the Saint defense being tired already as McCoy gets another 1st down at the NO22. Good thing there aren't ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS left or anything. Payton then does something football coaches never do - calls a timeout to give his defense a blow. Snicker. The blow stiffens the Saint D, snicker, and Corey White drops McCoy for a loss. Akiem Hicks down on the play, which the Eggle fans boo as a stalling tactic. Really? After they just had a timeout? Just kick your FG.

Collinsworth validates Hicks' injury, while Philly opts to go for it on 4th-and-1. McCoy surges off RT and nearly scores, gaining 5. Strong blocks there by Todd Herremans and others. Weird freaking throwback screen the next play loses a bunch, though. Minus-8. Foles rolled right, then threw back to the middle of the field. That's just a bizarre play, much more dangerous than it could be worth. He proves less than a master of field presence the next play, holding the ball six seconds before Jordan reaches him for a sack all the way back at the 36. I'll say this, the secondaries are faring better tonight than I thought they would.

3rd-and-30 as the quarter ends, and of course THIS is the game I picked for the over where two of the most dynamic offenses in the league can't even manage a freaking point after 15 minutes. You're welcome. Do not bet on sports, kids. Ever.

SECOND QUARTER
McCoy gains 7 to give Alex Henery a reasonable FG attempt, but he fades it barely wide left from 48. Serves Henery right for wearing any other number than 8. That's a Herman's Hermits reference, for anyone born after 1970.

As long as I'm doing lame 60s pop references, goo-goo-ga-joob Mr. Robinson for 7 to start the Saints from their 38, then he sweeps right for 2 more. Brees sneaks it across for the 1st and across midfield. Play-action dumpoff to Ingram beats a corner blitz for 12. Bennie Logan and others shut down a sweep for 1. Sproles gets wide open on an 6-yard comeback but falls down to leave it 3rd-and-3. He takes a pitch right and runs through a couple of tackles for 8. Next play is one of those things that mystify me about the Saints. Sproles runs a screen, the Eagles are all over it, but that was all Brees was ever going to throw, so he burns one into the ground. Wouldn't Mike Mayock be calling them an offense that doesn't "have any chunk plays"? Downfield coverage forces a 3-yard dumpoff to Ingram. On 3rd down, Brees steps up and finds Graham coming back to the middle, but he's stopped short by a fine tackle by Nate Allen and loses the ball trying to extend for the first down. Eagles ball!

These turnovers do not bode well for the Saints at all tonight, and this whole game certainly does not bode well for certain idiots who took the over. Thanks! Goofballs!

Looking at the replay, I say Graham's down.Vinovich reverses the call, giving the Saints 4th-and-inches at the 13. Brees sneaks it across, but apparently having learned what a false start is since the Rams-Carolina game, Vinovich calls one on Watson, forcing the Saints to settle for a 36-yard Shayne Graham FG. So, there's your first big points of the game. We're on a pace to score 10, I think. Saints 3, Eagles 0

The Eagles follow with a 3-and-out, with Roman Harper breaking up a 3rd-down pass for Celek and McCoy remaining pretty quiet. This has only been a back-and-forth game for the punters.

Saints at their 32. Marques Colston gets his first catch on a dumpoff for 10. Ingram cuts back for 4. Raise your hand if you thought the Saints would run better than the Eggles tonight. Eh, not so fast, PLANET EARTH. Brees comes up about a yard short on a scramble. Robinson runs through Mychal Kendricks' bad tackle for 6 and a 1st down. Brees kills that momentum, though, with another TERRIBLE interception, failing to see DeMeco Ryans swinging over in coverage on a throw intended for Lance Moore. Brees stinks worse than his wife's yoga pants tonight.

Foles to Cooper for 22 down to the Saint 22. Bunkley goes way past the hole and leaves McCoy a big lane for 8 down to the 11. Even though the 2:00 warning was right around the corner anyway, Philly fans boo Parys Haralson for staying down after the play. After Ertz botches a fade pass on 2nd-9, Foles gets a good 6 seconds in the pocket again and hits Cooper behind a falling Roman Harper in the end zone. That was pretty lucky; Harper breaks that up at a minimum if he doesn't trip over Cooper's foot. Eagles 7, Saints 3

Brees with 1:43 from his 25. Unbelievable sideline pass to Graham in a crowd for 17. Draw to Sproles across midfield for 13. Brandon Graham then beats Terron Armstead around the left edge for a sack, leading to a Saint timeout. Brees lobbies for and gets a holding penalty on Fletcher Cox for tackling Sproles trying to break out on a screen. The call is correct, but that is horrid refereeing. You buffoons can't let the players make the calls for you. Sliding sideline catch by Stills for 14. End zone pass for double-teamed Graham broken up by Nate Allen. Barwin bats the 2nd down pass and Trent Cole gets a sack on 3rd down when Brees tries to scramble. Another coverage sack. Somebody in one of the secondaries is getting tonight's game ball. Shayne Graham slips it in from 46 at the gun. Eagles 7, Saints 6 at halftime


PhiladelphiaEagles.com
HALFTIME


Well, RamView may have nailed the halftime adjustments for the first game, but don't expect anything like that here. I wouldn't say either defense needs to change anything. Collinsworth had already pointed out the Eagles' two main stars haven't shown up yet, and I have to agree. McCoy hasn't done much the too-few times he's carried the ball, and DeSean Jackson doesn't have a touch yet on offense to my knowledge. And here is where I just realized the Eagles' offensive coordinator is... Pat Shurmur, though I have no idea who actually calls the plays. I guess I'm not surprised they haven't found a way to get Jackson the ball on the move. Work on that #1, and #2, get some misdirection stuff going with McCoy, the Saints have really been overpursuing on the run.


The Saints, especially Brees, look almost as bad as they did in St. Louis. One of the problems is the good handle the Eggles have on Graham. Might want to use more motion or more trips and stack formations to make him harder to cover. This next bit is going to sound a little bonkers, but I'd like the Saints to lean a little more on their running game. It's been successful in the first half and it's their best chance to get the Eggle DBs sticking a little less well to their WRs. The Saints have had no downfield game at all, and they're probably going to need one before the night is through.

THIRD QUARTER
Remember my lame musical tempo reference at the start of this recap? This game has been more like a funeral dirge. I hope things pick up in the 2nd half. Not just because I have the over; I've already given up on that. Hey, I knew one game was going over today. The wrong one.


The offensive shootout continues with an dreadful 3-and-out by the Eagles. Curtis Lofton's blitz forces Foles into a grounding penalty on 2nd down and Jordan whips Lane Johnson but good for a hard sack on 3rd down. Feel the excitement. Really? THIS game is going to be the 7-6 game and the Chiefs were in the 45-44 game?

Good punt return by Sproles, across the NO45. I swear Collinsworth just stole from my halftime adjustments talking about the Saints needing to run more. After a first-down catch by Moore, Ingram surges off RT behind Jahri Evans' block for 18, down to the PHL22. The Vinovich crew makes an offensive holding call they ignored 1,000 times against Robert Quinn in the Seattle game. The penalty bothers Brees not at all. He hits Sproles running a comeback from out wide for 9, then rolls right and hits Moore at the 12, and Moore runs through an Eggle secondary that looks reluctant to tackle him and he charges in for a TD. Everybody be careful hitting that 5'9", 190 monster! Saints 13, Eagles 7

McCoy tries to cut back from his 24 but runs smack into Hicks and gains only 2. 4 more off LT. The Eagles then blow a time out on 3rd-and-4. They better make this here. Nope. Cooper DROPS a perfect ball while WIDE OPEN on a drag route. 4th down. That should have been 20 yards minimum. Another poor punt by Donnie Jones sets the Saints up nicely across their 30. This game is slipping out of the Eagles' talons.

After two Ingram carries, the Saints have to blow a timeout on 3rd-and-2. Vinovich calls Armstead for a hold; Seattle did worse to Robert Quinn about a hundred times week 17. Why only see holding now? While I was mistaking Roc Carmichael for Rock Cartwright, Brees takes advantage of the injury substitution in the Eagle secondary to hit Stills on the sideline for 14. Brees steps up again from the Philly rush and hits Ben Watson wide open down to the PHL27. Ingram crashes through a couple of missed tackles on the left edge for 10. Sproles makes a nifty grab on a swing pass and rolls down inside the 10. More poor Philadelphia tackling. Ingram rumbles for a 1st down inside the 5 and runs through Kendricks and Fletcher Cox at the goal line to blow open New Orleans' lead. The Eagles look done and dusted. Saints 20, Eagles 7

The Saints don't look so terrible on the road tonight. Best kickoff return of the day by Mizzou's Brad Smith is out to the 35. McCoy swings left and weaves for 11 after Harper dives at him and misses. Keenan Lewis knocks himself silly breaking up a swing pass to Avant, which looms as a turning point of the game. NBC's been showing us footage all night of Lewis shutting down DeSean Jackson that a good recap would have mentioned before now. Lewis, in fact, was on his way to being POTG. After drawing the Saints offside with a hard count, Foles rolls right and bombs away to Jackson for 40 yards down to the 10. Free of Lewis, who's still counting people's fingers on the sidelines, Jackson got position on White and beat him to a jump ball. McCoy makes a nifty cutback on 2nd-and-goal that sends David Hawthorne diving the wrong way like a fool, and strong blocking on the right side lets him breeze in for a short TD on 4th-and-goal. Lane Johnson and Herremans really crushed the Saints' edge but also went to the sideline limping. 20-14

FOURTH QUARTER
Huh, listening to Collinsworth talk, I kinda did nail the halftime adjustments. The Saints were moved back by Vinovich discovering another hold, so they've heard of the rule, which they DID NOT SHOW ANY CLUE of knowing last week in Seattle. Leads to a 3-and-out, and welcome back to the game, Eagles.

The Saints FOOLISHLY punt right to Jackson, who burns them with a 30-yard return up the far sideline. So the ball's already at the NO40. McCoy, not for the first time tonight, misses a fairly big cutback opportunity and stumbles into a crowd for 2. Sideline comeback to Cooper for a 1st down, working on Keenan Lewis' replacement Rod Sweeting. And Cooper beats Sweeting for another 14, almost the same play. Saints appear to be running the Tim Walton defense right now, complete with DBs 7 yards off the receivers. The Eagles can't follow that with another first down. An end zone pass is incomplete and Foles has to settle for a dumpoff to McCoy for 4 on 3rd-and-6. Henery hits from 31 after a false start penalty. 20-17

Brees goes to Sproles on an out route for 8 and a first down, then hits Robert Who? Meachem on an out-and-up for 40 yards down to the Eagle 23. Much too-tricky end-around to Stills for no gain. Robinson bounces out and cuts back for 6 as Kendricks misses again. He's missed as many tackles as he's made tonight. Saints try to throw out of an unusual 3-back formation on 3rd down but nothing's open and they settle for a 35-yard FG. Collinsworth points out how much good a late 6-point lead did the Chiefs in the first game. 23-17

Plenty of time for the Eagles, at their 23 with 8:00 to play. McCoy goes around left end for 5 then bounces one outside right for 7. I've been waiting for that all night. The fact that Foles can even target Jackson now tells us how impressive a job Keenan Lewis was doing. DeSean takes a drag route for 10. Foles is getting it out quick again, 8 to Cooper on a comeback across midfield, with McCoy then diving for another first down. Foles goes deep for Jackson down the near sideline and White interferes with him inside the 5 when Jackson tries to come back for the underthrown ball. Good grief, nobody in this league has a clue against a no-huddle offense. First-and-goal, WOW, is there any dumber place on the field to roll the QB out and throw a shovel pass back inside? Foles gets away with it with a no-gainer to McCoy.

Oh, you're kidding me. Two seconds after Collinsworth calls Ertz a major mismatch, it's a pass to him for the go-ahead TD. Simple enough play, he faked the down-block left, slanted back to the right, fooled David Hawthorne all the way. Collinsworth on top of his broadcasting game there, but he's already pointed out that Philadelphia might have scored too fast. Eagles 24, Saints 23

Kickoffs have been short all night, and Sproles burns the Eagles next, cutting back across the field for 35 and getting another 15 after Cary Williams horse-collars him. At midfield with 4:47 left, the Saints may score too fast now. Or not, as Kendricks and Brandon Graham stuff Sproles for a loss. Robinson, though, drives for 13 to put the Saints in long FG range behind a dominating block by center Brian de la Puente. Brees hits Colston on 2nd down to leave 3rd-1 at the PHL27. The Eagles use their 2nd timeout. 2:32 left.

And in what may anticlimactically have been the biggest play of the game, Brees sneaks it across for a first down, assisted by a major Bush Push from fullback Jed Collins. Pretty straightforward from there, as the Saints burn out the rest of the clock. Robinson for 5 off Ben Grubbs' pull block, and bounces outside for another 4.95 off a Watson block and an overpursuing safety. Another sneak by Brees makes it academic. New Orleans runs the clock down to :03 and Shayne Graham wins it for them from 32.

With their little-bite-at-a-time offense, the 50 was a perfect place for the Saints to start a time-consuming scoring drive.

Final score: New Orleans 26, Philadelphia 24

Postgame show
 
Boo to me for picking the kicker as the POTG, but it's going to Shayne Graham and his 4 FGs (36, 46, 31, 32). It would have been Keenan Lewis if he hadn't gotten hurt. Quietly strong game by Mark Ingram, too, 95 yards and a TD.

Actually, the MVP of this game was the St. Louis Rams. The Saints cut Garrett Hartley and signed Graham after losing to the Rams, who beat both teams that won today's games.


The win sends the Saints back to Seattle next week, where they got mauled 34-7 a month ago and have about as much chance next week. Seattle big. You need a better secondary than the Saints are going to be able to bring to have a chance up there. Serves the Saints right, anyway, for dealing me my first 0-for-3 of the postseason, making today a failure. 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U. Hoping to rally tomorrow.

In just one season, Chip Kelly's put together an intriguing team that appears to have a bright future. Their play in a lot of areas, including the secondary and offensive line, was easily good enough to win this game, too. A lot of teams have had difficulty pressuring Drew Brees, but as well as their secondary covered, the Eagles should have done better than the two sacks and mostly-light pressure that they got. I'd work on upgrading pass rush in the offseason.

Back tomorrow for Chargers/Bengals. In an hour, actually. I missed the end of the game originally and had  to go to NFL.com Game Rewind, which is a nice feature though I had to wait overnight for them to actually put up the game.

-$-



AFC Wild Card Playoff: Indianapolis 45, Kansas City 44

Wild card weekend is underway from Indianapolis, with a rematch from December 22nd the Colts surprisingly won rather handily in Kansas City. That was the last real game a lot of the Chiefs starters played; we'll see if Andy Reid's strategy to rest his guys last week works out. I think he's tempted fate, but he's the one who makes the big bucks.

Notre Dame game crew on the game for NBC, Dan Hicks and Mike Mayock. And hello Alex Flanagan.


FIRST QUARTER
Early loss in the field position battle as Quintin Demps only returns the opening kickoff to the KC17. Quick 10 yards for Jamaal Charles on an off-tackle right and an edge run left. Quick slant from Alex Smith to Dwayne Bowe for 12 more. Smith scrambles a couple of times, for 15 the second time to beat a blitz, to march the Chiefs out to the IND40. Charles off right tackle for another 7, and the Colt defense doesn't look like it has a clue right now. Charles stays down after the carry, possibly got his wind knocked out falling on the ball.

I'd expected to see Robert Mathis lined up on backup RT Donald Stephenson more, but so far he's been across from Branden Albert and hasn't gotten anywhere. Option toss to Knile Davis for 5. Charles is being treated for a concussion. Screen to Dexter McCluster for 5. Davis bounces outside and runs through Craig Toler for 5 more. This is how I feared the Colt defense would play after I picked them. Knew I shouldn't have trusted them. 7-yard flare to McCluster. Mathis nearly got there after a great spin move, but it's Alex Smith - the ball is coming out quick. Davis cuts back for a short gain to make it first-and-goal at the 6 with little resistance from the Colts thus far. After a couple of misses, Smith hits Dwayne Bowe on a slant on 3rd-and-goal to put the Chiefs on top. 7-minute TD drive pretty masterfully called by Doug Pederson and/or Reid. Took barely 15 minutes for my weekend picks to start sucking! Chiefs 7, Colts 0

Not David Reed, who was laughable against the Rams, but Lavon Brazill returning kicks for Indy, a nice run up the sideline for about 35 up to the IND27. (In fact, Reed was cut right after Thanksgiving.) Play-action slant from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton for 11, and we are in no-huddle mode. 5 more to Hilton, then another 24 on a drag route to beat a blitz. Brazill gets ripped down by his facemask on a screen pass without a call. Mayock states "it wasn't on the face mask" when it plainly was. Sideline jump ball to Coby Fleener down to the 15. 5 more to Brazill, then Hilton loses the DB with a step-fake at the line and scores on a little go route from the slot. Chiefs scored in 7 minutes, the Colts in 2:30. 7-7

Fast pace of the Colt defense kept the Chief pass rush from getting anywhere, so at least my preview go something right. Demps powers out to the 26 with the return, which he brought back from WAY deep. No kneeling today. Smith overthrows Bowe on 1st down, Vontae Davis resets things with an illegal contact. After Davis gains 4, Bowe runs through LAUGHABLE tackling by LaRon Landry and Toler and takes a 10-yard quick slant 62 yards, all the way to the 2. Smith has to throw away the first-and-goal pass, and HUGE stops at the goal line by LBs Kavell Connor and Kelvin Sheppard on Davis force a FG. I'd call that a potential turning point of the game if the Colts were showing any sign of stopping anything else. Chiefs 10, Colts 7

Also, Robert Mathis, any time you want to show up would be great. Yeah. Defensive player of the year, huh. Fearless Brazill nearly out to the 30 on the return. Donald Brown with the Colts' first run of the game for 4. Justin Houston hits Luck as he throws to force an incomplete. Indy cannot afford a 3-and-out here. Luck's nearly sacked by Ron Parker on a blitz and has his pass deflected by Allen Bailey.

SECOND QUARTER
Chiefs start at their 20 after the punt, and things are going close to perfectly for them so far. After two incompletions make you think the pass-happy Reid is trying to keep the Colts in the game, DONNIE AVERY burns Toler by 5 yards to score on a 79-yard TD bomb. Chiefs 17, Colts 7

On behalf of my picks, I would like to thank the freaking Colts for not even showing up today. I'd especially like to thank their defensive backs for running about as fast as grandfathers right after Thanksgiving dinner. Weekend's not even an hour old and I'm already well on my way to starting 0-3. This one's rapidly heading to screw-this mode. Also, Alex Smith can throw deep? Since when? Good for him.

Colts from their 20. Now the Chiefs are in trouble, here's Trent Richardson. And the worst trade in NFL history manifests itself in one play. Bottled up by Sean Smith for a loss, he tries to cut it back, tries to switch hands while Tamba Hali hacks at the ball and just puts it on the ground. Justin Houston with the recovery, I believe.

And hell, the Chiefs don't even need Charles to whip Indy's ass two weeks after losing to them at home by 16. Davis breaks down to the 4 to make it 1st-and-goal. On 2nd-and-goal, Smith throws a crazy backflip pass to fullback Anthony Sherman to put this game in total screw-this mode. Thanks a lot, Colts. Chiefs 24, Colts 7

Excuse me while I go forfeit my pick on Streak for the Cash. Colts looked headed for another 3-and-out but Luck danced away from the rush and hit somebody called Griff Whalen for 17. T.Y. Hilton down on the play. Hali collapses the pocket on 2nd-and-5 to force a bad pass. After scoring easily with the up-tempo offense on the opening possession, the Colts are now doing everything slowly. Eric Berry stops Fleener short of a first down on a route that was never run deep enough to force 4th down. The Chiefs go for it on 4th and inches, and Hali stuffs the useless Richardson about 2 yards behind the line. EXCEPT - it was a read option, Luck kept the ball and hopped around left end for 21 yards. What a brilliant fake! Hilton's back and bounces off a tough shot from Berry for 10 on a quick screen. 3 straight incompletions follow, though, with Houston deflecting the 3rd down pass. Colts settle for an Adam Vinatieri FG. Chiefs 24, Colts 10

Demps returns the kickoff from the stands and doesn't make the 20. 2 carries by Davis for a first down, then 3 straight by... Alex Smith for another. Charles has been ruled out of the rest of the game. The Chiefs don't need him! Then it's 3 straight screens, ending with a middle screen to Anthony Fasano for another 1st down across midfield. After a timeout, the Chiefs convert a 3rd-and-short with an 18-yard flare to McCluster down to the IND20. He got a completely illegal pick from Bowe to get open, but also a sweet pancake block downfield by... DONNIE AVERY, who returns to his old self a couple of plays later when he drops a pass over the middle. Smith, who has apparently turned into Colin Kaepernick, scrambles inside the 10 on 3rd-and-7 for another 1st down at the 2:00 warning.

Facemask penalty on useless Vontae Davis tees K.C. up at the 4, and Knile Davis surges in easily to make this a blowout by halftime. Chiefs 31, Colts 10

Luck hard-counts the Chiefs for one 1st down, hits Hilton on a corner route for 22. That doesn't last after Houston embarrasses Gosder Cherilus with an inside move for the first sack of the game. Luck then throws a TERRIBLE pass DIRECTLY TO Brandon Flowers, who Stevie Wonder would have seen. What the hell was that? The Chiefs nearly even score on the Hail Mary on the final play of the half.

HALFTIME 
Halftime adjustments? Pfft. This thing is over. The Colts are going to have to run the offense like they did their opening drive to stand a chance of even cutting the lead in half. Luck was 7-7 that drive, 5-14 and a pick afterward. In fact, it was Pep Hamilton's brilliant UN-adjustment away from the spectacularly-working no-huddle that's helped sink the Colts. So I'm not expecting any intelligent coaching move there.


The Colts don't stand a chance anyway. Mathis is too busy shining his Deacon Jones award to put much pass pressure on Alex Smith, and their secondary is far too suspect to risk blitzing to help their lame straight-up rush. They'll probably have to blitz, and maybe they'll strike gold with a Mathis strip/fumble, but more likely Smith burns them a couple more times. If he even has to throw, since K.C. will be looking to eat clock and Indy hasn't shown any sign of stopping the run.

Of course the Chiefs are beating a team on the road by 21, at halftime, who they just lost to by 16 at home. Of course this game has 41 points at halftime when the whole last game only had 30. Rest assured RamView is on the over for the rest of the playoffs, but the real lesson here, kids, is Don't. Gamble. On. Sports.

THIRD QUARTER
Luck opens the second half with ANOTHER TERRIBLE interception Husain Abdullah steps right in front of for a Chiefs INT, and what the HELL is wrong with Luck? He looks even worse than he did in the Rams game and the Chiefs aren't putting near as much pressure on him as the Rams did.


Congratulations to Chiefs Nation for ending their long drought without a playoff win. 3rd-and-2, Knile Davis leaks down the sideline almost unguarded, Smith scrambles away from late pressure by Mathis and finds him easily for yet another TD, sending RamView's playoff picks to an official 0-FOR-3 START. 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U, 38-10 Chiefs. Good news, Saints fans! I picked the Eagles!

The Colts may be one of the most embarrassing teams that has ever been in a playoff game. Da'Rick Rogers, though, beats Sean Smith and catches a bomb, almost a prayer, from Luck for 56. Donald Brown runs in the TD the next play off a good lead block by Cherilus and a pull block by Illini rookie Hugh Thornton. Chiefs 38, Colts 17 Noting here the Chiefs' near-complete inability to slow down an up-tempo offense. Also picking up my jaw off the floor that Pep Hamilton had the sense to go back to it. I think the dam's already broken and the water's flowed out, but we'll see.

WHY IS ANDY REID PASSING? Smith gets sacked to start the next drive. Aubrayo Franklin got it off a strong bull-rush by Ricky Jean-Francois on Jeff Allen, another Illini lineman. The bell then tolls for the Colts with a 17-yard pass to Hemingway. MORE PASSING, but Knile Davis is ALL ALONE in the flat for another 12 to midfield.

Following that, though, UH-OH! IT'S MY SACK/FUMBLE! Mathis', actually, as the Colts had the rare brains to rush him from left end instead of right, where he completely abused Allen and Fasano on the worst double-team ever and hacked it away from Smith trying to scramble again. Absolute shame on Andy Reid for the idiotic amount of passing he's doing this half with a big lead. You're up three TDs and passing four plays out of five? You contemptible idiot.

Hang on, Walt Anderson wants to review whether Kelvin Sheppard's recovery was in bounds. He did. Colts at the KC41. End zone bomb to Hilton incomplete, then a square out to him for 11. They connect for 8 more on a short cross. Seeing-eye pass to Brazill on a slant for 19 down to the 3. A screen to Brown, who lined up in the back of a quads-right formation, gets Indy in the end zone on 2nd-and-goal. Brandon Flowers injured on the play. Potential head/neck injury, he had an awkward collision with a teammate's leg trying to make the tackle. He walks off but heads straight for the locker room. Chiefs 38, Colts 24

That'll be enough to get me to stop working on the postgame show. And the bell tolls now for Hemingway himself, injured on the kickoff. Got his foot twisted pretty good. The Colts defense finally gets a stop with a 3-and-out. Conner stopped Davis on 1st down, Smith ran for a couple on an option play and JOSH GORDY broke up a 3rd-down slant to Bowe. Punt away, and the worm has really turned in this game.

Colts at their 28. And, so much for that worm. Abdullah pulls off his 2nd INT after Hilton biffs a pass in the flat. Husein Freaking Abdullah.

Indy gets another 3-and-out, stuffing Davis on 2nd down and blitzing Smith hard to force him to throw a screen pass away on 3rd down. Fans want a grounding penalty, but I think Davis was in the "general vicinity". Which in this case was probably Speedway. Colts have to blow a timeout to prevent a 12-men-on-the-field penalty but Ryan Succop hits from 42. Chiefs 41-24

Donald Brown sprints away with a middle dumpoff for 26 to the IND45. Luck hits Brazill for 30 more on a crazy play, rolling out, pulling up on Allen Bailey and finding Brazill behind coverage up the sideline. Draw to Brown for 13 more. Massive block by Mike McGlynn. Two plays later, it's Fleener getting behind the zone and in the back of the end zone. We may actually have a ball game again here. Chiefs 41, Colts 31

Yes, I know, the Colts have actually cut the halftime lead in half. Bowe starts off the drive with a 20-yard catch on a corner route, but Jerrell Freeman stuffs Davis on a screen. Smith keeps it for 13 on a read option across midfield. That had to be a forehead-smacker for Colts fans, as did the penalty on Gordy the net play for holding Fasano. The eagle-eyed officiating crew mistakes the "27" on Gordy's jersey for a "41" somehow. Which must mean we're about to start the 17th quarter.

FOURTH QUARTER
The Colts avert disaster to start the quarter when a missed assignment lets Cyrus Gray run free up the sideline. Smith, however, barely overthrows him. That probably would have been the ball game. Mathis flushes Smith on 3rd down to force a throwaway and a punt.

Colts try a draw from their 10 but Dontari Poe stuffs Davis on a draw. DROP by Brazill on 2nd down. Luck steps up from blitz pressure on 3rd down, though, and hits Hilton for 16 on the sideline. 14 more to Hilton, this time on the Colts' sideline. Brown drags Jaye Howard for a 7-yard gain up the middle. ANOTHER sideline route to Hilton for 13 at the KC40. Brown off left tackle for 6. Luck gets all day and scrambles for 12 down to the 22. Another first down. Slant to the Griffmeister down to the 10. First and goal. Brown lines up wide and takes a quick screen down to the 2 after breaking a bad tackle by Berry. Then, disaster. Berry blasts the ball away from Brown on a 2nd-and-goal run. The disaster is Kansas City's, though, after the ball bounces right back to Luck, who alertly scoops it, sees an opening and jumps over the line to score a TD. Chiefs 41, Colts 38

The Chiefs' poor play-calling choices in the 3rd quarter (too much passing!) and inability to do anything against Luck running the no-huddle have brought us to the doorstep of one of the biggest chokes in NFL history.

Slant to Hemingway, who finds a clean, well-lighted place at the KC30. Davis cuts back and grinds for 5. His injury history then kicks in, as he's down after the play clutching his knee or the back of his leg. Yikes. Cyrus Gray is next man up for the Chiefs at RB. Gray, btw, is a member of RamView's Never Draft A Kicker class from 2011. Most of whom would have been much worse picks than Greg Zuerlein. (I also had Alfred Morris, though.) Anyway, Erik Walden bats down the 2nd down pass, but Bowe makes a huge catch to beat Gordy on a slant for 5 and a first. Gray only gets a couple up the middle, then a far-too-fancy screen to Fasano is only good for 1. 3rd-and-7, I'm thinking look for McCluster. Andy Reid's thinking he wants a timeout. And a double bacon cheeseburger. I know, too easy.

Or, how about 49ers draft bust A.J. Jenkins? It's a shallow drag with blocks and/or legal-enough picks set up out front, and the speedy Jenkins runs crossfield behind it all and then up the near sideline for 27. As happens too often after long plays, though, the play clock runs down on the Chiefs and they have to blow ANOTHER timeout with 6:49 left. McCluster now lines up at tailback and gains 3 around right end. Reid then ingeniously LOSES FOUR with a far-too-tricky screen to Sherman. LaRon Landry stayed down after the play, appeared to take a shot to the head making the tackle. This game isn't going to be done in time for the start of the second game; will the NFL and NBC have the courtesy to delay it? Smith dumps off on 3rd-and-long, setting Succop up for a 43-yard FG that looks pretty meaningless. Chiefs 44, Colts 38

Over/under for the game was 46. RamView took the under. Succop just scored the game's EIGHTY-SECOND point. You're welcome.

5:36 left, and the Colts have a chance to take the lead of a game they had trailed by 28. INT, TD, TD, INT, TD, TD, is Luck due for another INT here? He scrambles for 5 on 2nd-10 and Fleener makes an excellent over-the-head catch on an out route for 11. Justin Houston down now for K.C. 4:44 left, if the Chiefs show blitz, Luck should look deep for Rickey Proehl.

YOU'RE WELCOME. YOU'RE FREAKING WELCOME. Luck's line gets him all night to pass and he hits Hilton behind double coverage for a 64-yard TD. Hilton came out of a trips alignment, those always confuse defenses, and easily got behind Kendrick Lewis. Hilton is over 200 yards receiving.

Holy cats. Colts 45, Chiefs 44

So, who else is recalling Succop's choke at the end of regulation in San Diego last week? Chiefs start at their 20. Bowe's wide open off a slant for 25 because the Colt defense thought there was a false start and they all stopped. Yes, the right guard did twitch. Another slant to Bowe for 13 and K.C.'s already across midfield. Are the Chiefs running down the clock now? Handoff to Gray for 3. Big play alert at the IND39, as the Chiefs appear to completely botch a screen, Mathis and Cory Redding come at Smith untouched and force him to throw a wild pass out of bounds that should be a grounding penalty, because he wasn't an inch outside the pocket. As usual, the grounding flag comes out a mile late. I'd say that's a costly penalty for the Chiefs, but a sack wouldn't have been a whole lot better. Shallow drag to McCluster only gets them to the Colt 43. They'll have to go for it on 4th down with only 1 timeout left. The 4th down play will come at the 2:00 warning.

4th-and-11 for the Chiefs' season. Even though we just had the freaking 2:00 warning, Reid coughs up the Chiefs' last timeout. You have got to be kidding me. I'm flinging deep, let's see what the Chiefs do. Smith does look for Bowe deep down the far sideline, but he can't stay in bounds with the throw, and the Colts have pulled off one of the stunning comebacks in NFL history. Luck kneels it out.

Final score: Colts 45, Chiefs 44

POSTGAME SHOW
First off, holy crap, was that a good game. Made me rewrite the postgame show, I'll say that. First RamView Player of the Game Award goes to T.Y. Hilton: 13 catches, 224 yards and 2 TDs. He was their whole offense at times. Golden Goat Award to Andy Reid. I KNEW not to trust Andy Reid! Philly fans remember that terrible time management well, and the Chiefs passed way too much while holding the big lead.


Colts-Broncos looms as a very interesting matchup. Peyton Manning won't be dodging rushes from Mathis the way Alex Smith was. And Mathis better get there next week, because the Colt secondary, with Vontae Davis running like Kevin James going up a flight of stairs and Greg Toler, who can't cover anybody when he's healthy, moving about as well as Morgan Freeman carrying a piano on his back, stands no chance of covering the Rocky Mountain Flying Circus. And there's the dome team outdoors in the playoffs factor (though we have yet to see how the Saints handle that). Denver by a lot.

Andy Reid did an admirable job rallying the Chiefs to the playoffs from 2-14 the year before, but in the playoffs, he turned into... Andy Reid. Ask all the fans of Marty Schottenheimer's or Norv Turner's teams how you improve enough to overcome that. No, losing their top 2 RBs did not help, but COME ON, you had a 4-TD lead. Similar situation 2 months ago, Jeff Fisher was banging out the clock with Benny Cunningham. KC's biggest offseason need to address definitely looked like the secondary today. Indy's basically a one-receiver team, you can't let that guy go nuts on you. We Rams fans know about that, trust me.

Oh, and for goodness' sake, RamView is 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U.

On (late, as usual) to game 2 in Philadelphia, definitely the one I would have guessed if you told me a game today was going to end 45-44.

-$-


So you know who to pick against...




I have never had less idea how to pick a weekend's football games. All four road teams could win this weekend, all four home teams could win. I'd be more surprised if all four favorites win than I would be if all four underdogs win. I'd be most surprised of all if all four teams I pick win. So here's one of the more clueless sets of picks for the first round of the playoffs:



Kansas City @ Indianapolis: Who to take, the team that didn't beat a winning team all year or the team that lost at home to the Rams by 30? Surprisingly, I like the Colts. That loss to the Rams in November was an out-of-whack game. Two of the Rams' TDs were not scored by the offense; two others were part of a historic game by Tavon Austin. The Chiefs don't have anyone in their receiving corps who can do close to what Austin did. Alex Smith hates throwing deep anyway. Indy can concentrate on Jamaal Charles, and note that they held Zac Stacy under 3 yards a carry. They'll also have league sack leader Robert Mathis going up against a backup. It was a miracle that Mathis didn't force two Kellen Clemens fumbles when the Rams were there. He should have a higher-impact game against K.C. All Indy has to do is stop the run early to get Andy Reid panicking into over-passing. Indy's offensive line does not impress me at all, and Tamba Hali should feast on Andrew Luck as much as Mathis on Smith, but Hali's not 100%, and Indy likes to run no-huddle, which will limit his impact. And the Chiefs didn't show any clue this year against Denver's no-huddle. Colts to win (favored by 1). I will take the under (46) but if this game goes over I'm officially over for the rest of the postseason.


New Orleans @ Philadelphia: A lot of history working against the Saints here. They've NEVER won a road playoff game and dome teams outdoors in the playoffs are historically awful. As much as I like Drew Brees, I think that trend sticks. Philly's got two all-pros and a rookie of the year candidate on their offensive line. The Rams' musical chairs line dominated the Saints and Stacy ran for 133; I'd expect no less from NFL rushing leader LeSean McCoy. I also think the Saints' lack of defensive speed gets exposed by the fast-paced Eggle offense. Offensively, I think the Saints are going to miss Pierre Thomas more than anybody would guess, especially as a receiver. Eagles to cover the 2.5 and the over (53.5).


San Diego @ Cincinnati: Like the other AFC game, two teams I really don't trust. The Chargers barely beat the Chiefs' second team with a playoff spot on the line. Marvin Lewis is still looking for his first playoff victory. If Pittsburgh was in this game (and they SHOULD have been), I'd have taken the Steelers. Cincinnati's defense has been too good, and they've played too well at home, where they're undefeated and scored over 40 in 4 of their last 5, to go against them vs. San Diego, especially in weather that's going to be reminiscent of the 1982 AFC Championship. I still don't trust them, though. Bengals to win; Chargers to cover (6.5), will stick with the over (46.5) until the weather makes me chicken out right before the game and then the game goes over anyway.

San Francisco @ Green Bay: The 49ers went there in September and won. They destroyed the Packers in last year's playoffs. There's little to suggest the 49ers won't move the ball at will on the Packer defense. The Packer o-line is bad and I don't see how they keep Aldon Smith from wreaking havoc. The myth of the Frozen Tundra Advantage has been shattered long ago. But in my desperate attempt to identify this year's team that gets hot at the right time and goes on an unexpected playoff run, I'm picking the Packers. When Aaron Rodgers is hot, nothing can stop him. They've got Randall Cobb back. Eddie Lacy's the best running balance they've had in years. I think they've hit the playoffs with a little momentum, I wouldn't have to face Rodgers at home in the playoffs, AND I FALL FOR THIS CRAP FROM GREEN BAY EVERY YEAR, DON'T I. Sigh. Packers (+2.5) for the outright upset and the over anyway.

0-12 here I come.

-$-

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

RamView year in review: QB

Fox News
Sam Bradford (159-262-1,687, 60.7%, 14 TD, 4 INT, PR 90.9): C+
No, I am not saying Kellen Clemens is a better QB than Sam Bradford, or that anybody else but (a healthy) Bradford should start for the Rams in 2014. But all the mixed feelings about Sam come together in this just-average grade. Sam raised his game in 2013. All those numbers were on track to be career bests and had the makings of a top-10 NFL QB. There had been a lot of complaints about Bradford's red zone performance his first three seasons, but he was dynamite down there this season. He continued to show the treasured ability to rally the team from behind. But, like the front office that drafted him, Bradford is a “safe” QB. He still takes too many checkdowns. Pass rush still gets in his head more than it should. He still gets far too many passes knocked down at the line. The Rams had to run his old college no-huddle at times to get anywhere. And this year was the second of four he couldn't come close to finishing due to injuries, a problem that has dogged him for a long time. Sam Bradford ultimately has yet to be a QB who elevates his team. Yes, some parts of the team need a whole lot of elevating. But Sam's a $50 million first draft pick overall. Four years in, he shouldn't have needed an offense stacked with all-Pros. Accordingly, the Rams went into the 2013 season planning to have Bradford carry the offensive load. That started badly and became outright uncompetitive during a 1-3 start that only got righted because Zac Stacy emerged to slug things out. Yes, the plan around Bradford was bad and the execution around him was even worse. Yet, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Nick Foles, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, all contemporaries of Bradford, are all in the playoffs with maybe three decent receivers between them (Vernon Davis, DeSean Jackson, A.J. Green). Bradford's a maturing QB getting close to being as good as he's ever going to be. He'll be running a well-balanced offense if he can get his knee rehabbed in time. 2014 has to be Sam Bradford's year. Time to take off the kid gloves.

Kellen Clemens (142-242-1,673, 58.7%, 8 TD, 7 INT, PR 78.8): B
Clemens' grade is mainly for exceeding expectations. Once Bradford went out for the season, the Rams looked like they were probably going to lose 8 of their final 9 games, and that was the rosy scenario. Instead, Clemens guided them to a 4-5 finish. Kellen is no match for Sam Bradford talentwise. He's nowhere near as accurate a passer and throws too many interceptions, many of which are the dumb forced kind a QB of his experience should have learned to avoid by now. But he showed he could come in off the bench and manage the Ram offense and keep it competitive. That's the most I expect from a backup QB and most of them fail at it. Clemens, rewardingly, can go back home knowing he had a better 2013 than noted preseason critic Bernie Kosar.

Austin Davis: F
A big disappointment, Davis landed his F in August when he failed to make the roster out of training camp. He only made the roster after Bradford's injury. Austin was all-but handed the QB2 job after the '12 season but by training camp was only platooning with Clemens and eventually lost that battle. He didn't throw accurately and it looked like he had trouble reading defenses. A disappointing turn for a young QB who appeared to have a ton of potential last preseason.

Brady Quinn: F-minus
Hello, 911? I'm calling to report a stolen paycheck. I think Quinn may have injured himself signing his deal to come in after Bradford's injury. I'm not sure he even threw a pass at Rams Park.
Looking ahead: Jeff Fisher has already declared Bradford his main man in 2014. Clemens is a free agent I'm happy to re-sign after his 2013 performance. In fact, I'd try to lock him up early for 2014; the free agent QB market is pretty brutal. The Rams also need to add a young QB who can be groomed to take over for Bradford down the road. I'd wait till day 3 of the draft. The Rams' handling of the QB position will be one of about a dozen big stories this offseason.
-$-

RamView year in review: RB

(First in a series as RamView offers player grades for 2013 by position. No rhyme or reason to the order the positions will come out, just whatever I happen to get done.)
Belleville (Ill.) News-Democrat
Zac Stacy (250-973 rush, 26-141 rec, 8 TD): B
No question, Stacy delivered big for the Rams his rookie season and was one of the steals of the draft. A worthy successor to Steven Jackson as a hard-nosed, no-quit, impossible-to-bring-down power runner. Decent at blitz pickup and grew as a receiver at the end of the season. The Rams could have made the playoffs with him in the lineup sooner. His grade's kept down by that and a lack of elite speed or acceleration. Hoping to see him bounce outside a little more next year.
Benny Cunningham (47-261 rush, 6-59 rec, 1 TD): C-
Benny came a long way in a short time and filled in well when Stacy needed to be spelled. Like his running style and speed. Must correct ball-security issues and is terrible at blitz pickup, may not have size to do it.

Daryl Richardson (69-215 rush, 14-121 rec, ZERO TD): F
One of the Rams' most disappointing players in 2013, dropping from 4.8 ypc his rookie season to 3.1. Demonstrated none of the elusive inside running he did as a rookie. Used his blockers poorly and frequently just ran up their backs. A bad-handed liability as a receiver, infamously muffing away a screen pass for a TD in Atlanta. Early-season foot injury a significant variable, but if he's competing for anything here next year, it'll be with Cunningham to be the 3rd-down back at best. He is better at blitz pickup.

Isaiah Pead (7 carries, 11 rec, 99 total yards): F
Former second-round pick unable to beat out a 7th-round pick, a 5th-round pick or a rookie free agent on the depth chart. Seems to have the physical tools and plays with good enough effort, but mental part of the game seems too much for him. Was also in and out of Jeff Fisher's doghouse. A reset with another team could help him.
Looking ahead: Stacy's obviously the incumbent starter. I would give Richardson the chance to compete with Cunningham. Cutting Pead would gain about a $half-million against the cap, and there's little reason to worry about going into the season with Chase Reynolds at RB4, as long as D-Rich rebounds. The Rams could give up on D-Rich and Pead right now and use the $million of cap room to sign a free agent RB, but that option seems doubtful.

-$-