So you know who to pick against...

I have never had less idea how to pick a weekend's football games. All four road teams could win this weekend, all four home teams could win. I'd be more surprised if all four favorites win than I would be if all four underdogs win. I'd be most surprised of all if all four teams I pick win. So here's one of the more clueless sets of picks for the first round of the playoffs:



Kansas City @ Indianapolis: Who to take, the team that didn't beat a winning team all year or the team that lost at home to the Rams by 30? Surprisingly, I like the Colts. That loss to the Rams in November was an out-of-whack game. Two of the Rams' TDs were not scored by the offense; two others were part of a historic game by Tavon Austin. The Chiefs don't have anyone in their receiving corps who can do close to what Austin did. Alex Smith hates throwing deep anyway. Indy can concentrate on Jamaal Charles, and note that they held Zac Stacy under 3 yards a carry. They'll also have league sack leader Robert Mathis going up against a backup. It was a miracle that Mathis didn't force two Kellen Clemens fumbles when the Rams were there. He should have a higher-impact game against K.C. All Indy has to do is stop the run early to get Andy Reid panicking into over-passing. Indy's offensive line does not impress me at all, and Tamba Hali should feast on Andrew Luck as much as Mathis on Smith, but Hali's not 100%, and Indy likes to run no-huddle, which will limit his impact. And the Chiefs didn't show any clue this year against Denver's no-huddle. Colts to win (favored by 1). I will take the under (46) but if this game goes over I'm officially over for the rest of the postseason.


New Orleans @ Philadelphia: A lot of history working against the Saints here. They've NEVER won a road playoff game and dome teams outdoors in the playoffs are historically awful. As much as I like Drew Brees, I think that trend sticks. Philly's got two all-pros and a rookie of the year candidate on their offensive line. The Rams' musical chairs line dominated the Saints and Stacy ran for 133; I'd expect no less from NFL rushing leader LeSean McCoy. I also think the Saints' lack of defensive speed gets exposed by the fast-paced Eggle offense. Offensively, I think the Saints are going to miss Pierre Thomas more than anybody would guess, especially as a receiver. Eagles to cover the 2.5 and the over (53.5).


San Diego @ Cincinnati: Like the other AFC game, two teams I really don't trust. The Chargers barely beat the Chiefs' second team with a playoff spot on the line. Marvin Lewis is still looking for his first playoff victory. If Pittsburgh was in this game (and they SHOULD have been), I'd have taken the Steelers. Cincinnati's defense has been too good, and they've played too well at home, where they're undefeated and scored over 40 in 4 of their last 5, to go against them vs. San Diego, especially in weather that's going to be reminiscent of the 1982 AFC Championship. I still don't trust them, though. Bengals to win; Chargers to cover (6.5), will stick with the over (46.5) until the weather makes me chicken out right before the game and then the game goes over anyway.

San Francisco @ Green Bay: The 49ers went there in September and won. They destroyed the Packers in last year's playoffs. There's little to suggest the 49ers won't move the ball at will on the Packer defense. The Packer o-line is bad and I don't see how they keep Aldon Smith from wreaking havoc. The myth of the Frozen Tundra Advantage has been shattered long ago. But in my desperate attempt to identify this year's team that gets hot at the right time and goes on an unexpected playoff run, I'm picking the Packers. When Aaron Rodgers is hot, nothing can stop him. They've got Randall Cobb back. Eddie Lacy's the best running balance they've had in years. I think they've hit the playoffs with a little momentum, I wouldn't have to face Rodgers at home in the playoffs, AND I FALL FOR THIS CRAP FROM GREEN BAY EVERY YEAR, DON'T I. Sigh. Packers (+2.5) for the outright upset and the over anyway.

0-12 here I come.

-$-