Notes from NFL Combine coverage of February 27th:
NFL Network was more of a hindrance this weekend than a help. The 40 times they initially reported for many players ended up significantly off from their official total to the point it became a real fiasco. The NFL holds releasing the official times until everyone has run at the position. I guess that nullifies a competitive advantage for names at the end of the alphabet. But surely they can get the official times to NFL Network without tipping off the players. And even if they do, I think that's much less of a problem than the NFL Net intern or whoever getting CJ Spiller's time wrong by a tenth of a second.
I believe all the times I will mention are the official times but I can't swear to them in court. Amazingly, the NFL's website isn't even listing players' Combine 40 times. That is decidedly unhelpful, people.
* Wide receivers.
- Golden Tate got a ton of buzz when NFL Net timed his 40 at 4.34. The real time, 4.42, ain't half bad, either. He as AWFUL in the gauntlet drill, though. Mike Mayock did describe him as the best run-after-catch WR in the draft. Little question the Rams need that factor. However, you have to catch the ball in order to run after the catch.
- Dez Bryant, who Michael Irvin mistakenly called “Antonio” at least once, did not participate in anything due to a hamstring problem. Yeah, that's not helping anybody figure out how good a guy who was suspended most of last season is.
- With their first pick in the NFL draft, the Oakland Raiders select Clemson WR Jacoby Ford, this year's fastest 40 runner at 4.28.
- Riley Cooper helped his stock, at least with me. His 40 time was 4.52 and in one of the upsets of the weekend, he caught everything I saw thrown to him.
- Regis Benn fell on his butt on one drill but caught well. He also ran well, with a 4.48.
- Antonio Brown ran in the 4.5's and caught well. Unofficially 4.50.
- Damian Williams had a couple of EASY drops in the first gauntlet run but was much better the second time through. Ran a 4.53.
- Mardy Gilyard caught well but may have hurt his stock with a 4.56 40.
- Jordan Shipley didn't look terribly coordinated, knocking cones over and falling down during drills. 4.57 40 didn't help him, either.
- Brandon LaFell's 40 was a disappointing 4.6.
- Chris Bell struggled in the deep route drill and had one of the few drops.
- Brandon Banks of K-State is an interesting prospect. He ran a 4.43 and caught everything in sight. Probably had one of the best sets of hands there. He weighed in at 149 POUNDS, though. I think I weighed that in 8th grade.
- I'm not sure why Dezmon Briscoe came to the Combine. His 4.61 40 and NINE bench presses weren't even good results for a punter.
- Some other sleepers, or guys I didn't know that much about before, at least:
- Nyan Boateng of Cal looked very smooth and caught everything. That performance flies in the face of his scouting report, though. I would think teams would take a second look at him, though.
- Blair White of Michigan State appeared to have good hands and good speed. Again, one of those players who just seemed to pop up all the time doing something good.
In the end, I don't think the Rams have a lot of help coming at WR in the draft based on today's performances. Tate has to show MUCH better hands than he did to merit the 2nd-round pick. Bryant's turned into the Sam Bradford of WRs in giving us little recent play to go on. It would? should? be inconceivable to draft him and Bradford.
Valuewise, the WR position can wait until at least the 3rd round, and possibly later.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Path to the Draft, 3/9/2010
Path to the Draft – Tuesday, March 9
Notes:
* Oklahoma pro day. Gerald McCoy had breakfast with Steve Spagnuolo. His workout went very well. So did Trent Williams'. He improved his 40 and 3-cone drill times noticeably.
Jermaine Gresham did not run the 40 but will at OU's 2nd workout day. Mike Mayock described him as a faster and better receiver than last year's first TE taken, Brandon Pettigrew, but not as good a blocker.
Since the start of the Combine, Mayock has nominated about 100 players to be drafted in the first two rounds; add CB Dominique Franks (no relation) to that list, despite an underwhelming endorsement. He looks small, needs to improve his ball skills, and doesn't trust what he sees on the field. Mmm-kay.
The Sooners could have three players go in the top 10 (McCoy, Williams, Bradford). Mayock moved Williams into the top 10 and ahead of Rutgers T Anthony Davis (this was before Davis didn't show up for his pro day). His outstanding Combine and even better Pro Day have supposedly shed him of his underachiever reputation. Again, more overemphasis by NFL Network on a glorified gym class. Williams is right there with Brian Bulaga of Iowa. Bulaga has no discernable weaknesses other than his arm length is right at the limit of being shorter than you'd like to have at the position.
Lindsay Soto interviewed McCoy later. He stressed his technique and mobility while saying he's still trying to improve his bench press. So you can see where he's trying to distinguish himself from Ndamukong Suh.
* If the Rams draft DT first, should they take McCoy or Suh?
Bucky Brooks pretty much gave a non-answer. Take McCoy if he fits your scheme. Charles Davis, the analyst who makes the most sense to me so far this year, pointed out Suh's overwhelming numbers.
In case I forget to bring this up during my overdue Combine review, I'm going to do it now. Mayock actually criticized Suh's numbers during the Combine as being overinflated by the Texas game. Texas' o-line isn't really any good; nobody on it is a threat to be drafted; Suh's 4.5 sacks in the Big 12 championship game are dismissable.
Mayock got away with this without anyone ever mentioning that Oklahoma played Texas, too. So what did McCoy do against that awful Longhorn offensive line?
3 tackles, 1 sack.
Shut up, Mayock.
* Colts at 31. The first bit of news was that the Colts released G Ryan Lilja and CB Marlin Jackson. Both have injury issues, so I will cut the Rams some slack for not going after either player. (The Eagles signed Jackson Wednesday; he's coming off a knee injury that cost him last season). Michael Lombardi then did an awful job projecting players the Colts would be after. He clearly didn't do his homework. He believes they'll go after a big lineman, but then named Bulaga, who the panel just said would be a top 10 player. He also named Jared Odrick while saying he wouldn't fall to 31, either. Thanks for your hard work, Lombardi, go pick up your paycheck. Brooks was more helpful in mentioning Florida guard Maurkice Pouncey and Florida State CB Patrick Robinson.
* DT talk. Tyson Alualu of Cal's been playing 3-4 DE but Mayock projects him as a 3-techique DT. Sure looked fast enough at the Senior Bowl to be a 4-3 DE to me. Brooks pushed Tennessee's Dan Williams as a big-time run stuffer. Davis pushed Arthur Jones of Syracuse, with Mayock jumping in to call him the 101st player that will be drafted in the first two rounds. Good pursuit DT but with medical (knee) issues. Cam Thomas of North Carolina was also brought up. For reasons I cannot explain and the panel did not explain, he was not productive in college but is now getting buzz as being an ideal DT. Huh? I really do not understand these guys sometimes.
44 days till the draft.
Notes:
* Oklahoma pro day. Gerald McCoy had breakfast with Steve Spagnuolo. His workout went very well. So did Trent Williams'. He improved his 40 and 3-cone drill times noticeably.
Jermaine Gresham did not run the 40 but will at OU's 2nd workout day. Mike Mayock described him as a faster and better receiver than last year's first TE taken, Brandon Pettigrew, but not as good a blocker.
Since the start of the Combine, Mayock has nominated about 100 players to be drafted in the first two rounds; add CB Dominique Franks (no relation) to that list, despite an underwhelming endorsement. He looks small, needs to improve his ball skills, and doesn't trust what he sees on the field. Mmm-kay.
The Sooners could have three players go in the top 10 (McCoy, Williams, Bradford). Mayock moved Williams into the top 10 and ahead of Rutgers T Anthony Davis (this was before Davis didn't show up for his pro day). His outstanding Combine and even better Pro Day have supposedly shed him of his underachiever reputation. Again, more overemphasis by NFL Network on a glorified gym class. Williams is right there with Brian Bulaga of Iowa. Bulaga has no discernable weaknesses other than his arm length is right at the limit of being shorter than you'd like to have at the position.
Lindsay Soto interviewed McCoy later. He stressed his technique and mobility while saying he's still trying to improve his bench press. So you can see where he's trying to distinguish himself from Ndamukong Suh.
* If the Rams draft DT first, should they take McCoy or Suh?
Bucky Brooks pretty much gave a non-answer. Take McCoy if he fits your scheme. Charles Davis, the analyst who makes the most sense to me so far this year, pointed out Suh's overwhelming numbers.
In case I forget to bring this up during my overdue Combine review, I'm going to do it now. Mayock actually criticized Suh's numbers during the Combine as being overinflated by the Texas game. Texas' o-line isn't really any good; nobody on it is a threat to be drafted; Suh's 4.5 sacks in the Big 12 championship game are dismissable.
Mayock got away with this without anyone ever mentioning that Oklahoma played Texas, too. So what did McCoy do against that awful Longhorn offensive line?
3 tackles, 1 sack.
Shut up, Mayock.
* Colts at 31. The first bit of news was that the Colts released G Ryan Lilja and CB Marlin Jackson. Both have injury issues, so I will cut the Rams some slack for not going after either player. (The Eagles signed Jackson Wednesday; he's coming off a knee injury that cost him last season). Michael Lombardi then did an awful job projecting players the Colts would be after. He clearly didn't do his homework. He believes they'll go after a big lineman, but then named Bulaga, who the panel just said would be a top 10 player. He also named Jared Odrick while saying he wouldn't fall to 31, either. Thanks for your hard work, Lombardi, go pick up your paycheck. Brooks was more helpful in mentioning Florida guard Maurkice Pouncey and Florida State CB Patrick Robinson.
* DT talk. Tyson Alualu of Cal's been playing 3-4 DE but Mayock projects him as a 3-techique DT. Sure looked fast enough at the Senior Bowl to be a 4-3 DE to me. Brooks pushed Tennessee's Dan Williams as a big-time run stuffer. Davis pushed Arthur Jones of Syracuse, with Mayock jumping in to call him the 101st player that will be drafted in the first two rounds. Good pursuit DT but with medical (knee) issues. Cam Thomas of North Carolina was also brought up. For reasons I cannot explain and the panel did not explain, he was not productive in college but is now getting buzz as being an ideal DT. Huh? I really do not understand these guys sometimes.
44 days till the draft.
Path to the Draft, 3/8/2010
Path to the Draft – Monday, March 8
Notes:
* Mike Mayock believes the new three-day format of the draft will help bad-drafting teams re-stack their boards.
* Nominations for most impressive player at the Combine:
- Charles Davis picked Eric Berry. The Tennessee safety has cornerback speed.
- Mayock picked Fresno State RB Ryan Matthews. Big back, athletically explosive, ran a 4.45.
Also named workout warrior/TE Clay Harbor, who he described as a potential 4th rounder.
- Bucky Brooks named Oklahoma T Trent Williams and Lamar Houston.
In general, these guys were focusing WAY too much on players' 40 times.
* Who hurt themselves the most at the Combine?
- Mayock: Joe Haden, for a slow 40 time, of course. Then Mayock turns around and says he plays faster than he runs and is still the #1 corner. How much did he hurt himself, then?
- Davis' pick, Brandon LaFell, made more sense. He did mention his 40 time was over 4.6, but he also emphasized the LaFell showed inconsistent hands.
- Brooks also made more sense in picking Jonathan Dwyer, who he said looked soft physically and didn't run or drill well.
* Should the Rams draft Sam Bradford? All three said yes, campus workout unseen.
- Brooks said you have to take a franchise QB when you can get one but offered little proof Bradford will be a franchise QB. Mentioned he interviewed very well. Now there's a great reason to spend tens of millions on a guy. He interviews well. Jerry Seinfeld interviews well, let's draft him!
- Mayock criticized the Rams for passing on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez without ever peeling himself off of Chris Long's jock. Mayock's losing a lot of stock with me these days. He at least mentioned that while Bradford's built like Matt Ryan, he didn't have to take the hits Ryan did at BC (or survive the ones he did take, I might add) or bring the team from behind as many times as Ryan did.
- Davis, short and sweet, made the most sense. Bradford is a big risk because he missed most of last year with the shoulder problem, but the Rams should take him IF he checks out medically. Called Bradford as accurate a thrower as Aaron Rodgers.
* Saints at 32. The Saints beat writer projects them to take a pass rusher or front seven playmaker. They could go for a tight end. Names thrown out included Carlos Dunlap, Ricky Sapp, Sean Weatherspoon, Darryl Washington, Everson Griffen and Taylor Mays. Mays came up because they discussed that the Saints aren't going to overpay for Darren Sharper.
* God forbid we get through a show without talking about Tim Tebow. Mayock believes Tebow's campus workout won't really matter that much. Teams either like him already or they don't.
* Stock report. Jacoby Ford down. He only has straight-line speed. Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty up. RB coaches around the league love them.
45 days till the draft!
Notes:
* Mike Mayock believes the new three-day format of the draft will help bad-drafting teams re-stack their boards.
* Nominations for most impressive player at the Combine:
- Charles Davis picked Eric Berry. The Tennessee safety has cornerback speed.
- Mayock picked Fresno State RB Ryan Matthews. Big back, athletically explosive, ran a 4.45.
Also named workout warrior/TE Clay Harbor, who he described as a potential 4th rounder.
- Bucky Brooks named Oklahoma T Trent Williams and Lamar Houston.
In general, these guys were focusing WAY too much on players' 40 times.
* Who hurt themselves the most at the Combine?
- Mayock: Joe Haden, for a slow 40 time, of course. Then Mayock turns around and says he plays faster than he runs and is still the #1 corner. How much did he hurt himself, then?
- Davis' pick, Brandon LaFell, made more sense. He did mention his 40 time was over 4.6, but he also emphasized the LaFell showed inconsistent hands.
- Brooks also made more sense in picking Jonathan Dwyer, who he said looked soft physically and didn't run or drill well.
* Should the Rams draft Sam Bradford? All three said yes, campus workout unseen.
- Brooks said you have to take a franchise QB when you can get one but offered little proof Bradford will be a franchise QB. Mentioned he interviewed very well. Now there's a great reason to spend tens of millions on a guy. He interviews well. Jerry Seinfeld interviews well, let's draft him!
- Mayock criticized the Rams for passing on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez without ever peeling himself off of Chris Long's jock. Mayock's losing a lot of stock with me these days. He at least mentioned that while Bradford's built like Matt Ryan, he didn't have to take the hits Ryan did at BC (or survive the ones he did take, I might add) or bring the team from behind as many times as Ryan did.
- Davis, short and sweet, made the most sense. Bradford is a big risk because he missed most of last year with the shoulder problem, but the Rams should take him IF he checks out medically. Called Bradford as accurate a thrower as Aaron Rodgers.
* Saints at 32. The Saints beat writer projects them to take a pass rusher or front seven playmaker. They could go for a tight end. Names thrown out included Carlos Dunlap, Ricky Sapp, Sean Weatherspoon, Darryl Washington, Everson Griffen and Taylor Mays. Mays came up because they discussed that the Saints aren't going to overpay for Darren Sharper.
* God forbid we get through a show without talking about Tim Tebow. Mayock believes Tebow's campus workout won't really matter that much. Teams either like him already or they don't.
* Stock report. Jacoby Ford down. He only has straight-line speed. Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty up. RB coaches around the league love them.
45 days till the draft!
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Why some teams are 1-15
Free agency has opened in the NFL with a pretty loud bang.
The Bears are signing Julius Peppers to a NINETY million dollar deal.
Badly in need of wide receivers, the Ravens have made a deal for Anquan Boldin.
The Jets also made a huge trade, acquiring Antonio Cromartie to complete what should be the NFL's best defensive backfield.
Karlos Dansby has signed with Miami for $22 million guaranteed.
After the Big Dead cut him, the Giants made Antrell Rolle the highest paid safety of all time.
The Lions quickly snapped up my top UFA WR, Nate Burleson, to a 5-year deal, and picked up a needed pass rusher in Kyle Vanden Bosch.
Other teams smartly signed their own guys. Indy keeps Gary Brackett and Cleveland makes Josh Cribbs happy after two years of complaining about his contract. The Patriots re-upped Vince Wilfork to a huge deal.
The Falcons are reportedly signing Dunta Robinson. The Seahawks are making a play for Brandon Marshall.
The Rams?
They signed A.J. Feeley, who is 32 and hasn't been a starter since 2004. And he only started then because Miami made an awful trade with the Eagles after Feeley's 4-1 run at the end of 2002 helped Philly get into the playoffs. His last start was a 4-INT game against Seattle. He didn't have a job last year before Carolina picked him up to replace an injured Josh McCown. Yes, the Rams have signed a QB who last year was seen fit, at best, to back up Jake Delhomme. For God's sake, is it possible for a team with Kyle Boller to get worse at a position?
PAT SHURMUR KNOWS HIM, THOUGH. Thrillsville. Aren't you supposed to use free agency to -improve- your team?
(The silver lining: between Athletica goaltender Hope Solo and Feeley's wife Heather Mitts, St. Louis can stake a claim as America's best-looking soccer city.)
The Rams did sign Craig Dahl, a backup safety, to a three-year deal. Dahl's a nice player, but that contract is surprisingly long. Then again, add that to the team's apparent determination to screw Oshiomogho Atogwe. They gamed this year's CBA by tendering him for $5 million less than he made last year. If they don't match an offer sheet for him, they don't even get compensation. Yeah, that's a great idea, drive off your only defensive playmaker. Atogwe's about the only guy on this defense who ever forces a turnover. But let's lowball him and get him pissed off at the team after he came to camp last year and practiced without a contract. Yeah, that's how you want to do business. But Steve Spagnuolo knows Craig Dahl, I guess. You'd think Spagnuolo would know him well enough, then, to know:
- Other than hitting, Dahl doesn't do anything as well as Atogwe does. Spags should have been able to see that even in only one season here.
- You'd especially think he knows Dahl's been injured most of his career. Torn both ACLs since 2007.
I hope I'm misreading what they're doing at safety, because if it's Dahl in and Atogwe out, there's another position at which they've gotten worse and less physically sound.
I'd better be misreading this whole thing. So far in free agency, a bunch of teams have taken off down the track, and the Rams are still in the starting gate.
Taking a dump.
The Bears are signing Julius Peppers to a NINETY million dollar deal.
Badly in need of wide receivers, the Ravens have made a deal for Anquan Boldin.
The Jets also made a huge trade, acquiring Antonio Cromartie to complete what should be the NFL's best defensive backfield.
Karlos Dansby has signed with Miami for $22 million guaranteed.
After the Big Dead cut him, the Giants made Antrell Rolle the highest paid safety of all time.
The Lions quickly snapped up my top UFA WR, Nate Burleson, to a 5-year deal, and picked up a needed pass rusher in Kyle Vanden Bosch.
Other teams smartly signed their own guys. Indy keeps Gary Brackett and Cleveland makes Josh Cribbs happy after two years of complaining about his contract. The Patriots re-upped Vince Wilfork to a huge deal.
The Falcons are reportedly signing Dunta Robinson. The Seahawks are making a play for Brandon Marshall.
The Rams?
They signed A.J. Feeley, who is 32 and hasn't been a starter since 2004. And he only started then because Miami made an awful trade with the Eagles after Feeley's 4-1 run at the end of 2002 helped Philly get into the playoffs. His last start was a 4-INT game against Seattle. He didn't have a job last year before Carolina picked him up to replace an injured Josh McCown. Yes, the Rams have signed a QB who last year was seen fit, at best, to back up Jake Delhomme. For God's sake, is it possible for a team with Kyle Boller to get worse at a position?
PAT SHURMUR KNOWS HIM, THOUGH. Thrillsville. Aren't you supposed to use free agency to -improve- your team?
(The silver lining: between Athletica goaltender Hope Solo and Feeley's wife Heather Mitts, St. Louis can stake a claim as America's best-looking soccer city.)
The Rams did sign Craig Dahl, a backup safety, to a three-year deal. Dahl's a nice player, but that contract is surprisingly long. Then again, add that to the team's apparent determination to screw Oshiomogho Atogwe. They gamed this year's CBA by tendering him for $5 million less than he made last year. If they don't match an offer sheet for him, they don't even get compensation. Yeah, that's a great idea, drive off your only defensive playmaker. Atogwe's about the only guy on this defense who ever forces a turnover. But let's lowball him and get him pissed off at the team after he came to camp last year and practiced without a contract. Yeah, that's how you want to do business. But Steve Spagnuolo knows Craig Dahl, I guess. You'd think Spagnuolo would know him well enough, then, to know:
- Other than hitting, Dahl doesn't do anything as well as Atogwe does. Spags should have been able to see that even in only one season here.
- You'd especially think he knows Dahl's been injured most of his career. Torn both ACLs since 2007.
I hope I'm misreading what they're doing at safety, because if it's Dahl in and Atogwe out, there's another position at which they've gotten worse and less physically sound.
I'd better be misreading this whole thing. So far in free agency, a bunch of teams have taken off down the track, and the Rams are still in the starting gate.
Taking a dump.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
FA preview: wrap-up
Quick updates to account for recent player moves that occurred after position recaps:
RB changed a lot: 1) Brian Westbrook 2) Darren Sproles 3) Thomas Jones 4) LaDainian Tomlinson 5) Willie Parker
Sadly, though he was recently cut by the Bears, I'm not sure Orlando Pace would crack my top 5 OTs available.
So what would I do if I were Rams GM?
1) On the d-line, I'm hoping to talk Leonard Little back for one last season, and it sounds like he's at least leaning toward playing vs. retiring. Might have to sweeten the pot to keep him from talking to Haslett, though. I'm checking out Fred Robbins for the DT rotation and definitely burning the phone lines to New York to see what they'd want for Osi Umenyiora, whom they're not trying very hard not to piss off these days. Aaron Kampman should be Plan B; nobody seems to think his last season-ending knee injury will be a big concern. Defensive line is the area of the team the Rams have to be the most active in this offseason, in free agency, and the draft, where I'm still selecting Ndamukong Suh with the first pick overall, a notion that once would have been called a no-brainer.
2) Offensive priority number one in free agency is tight end. I'd pretty much have the Rammobile parked outside Ben Watson's house with a trunkful of cash. Should that fail, hopefully Randy McMichael would act like nothing happened. He could actually be the 2nd-best FA TE available.
3) I'm still not enthralled with the LB situation, and yes, I'm looking to the Giants yet again (and I'm not even Spagnuolo!). I strongly expect the Rams to end up with Antonio Pierce if he's healthy, and I'd also take a look at Danny Clark. Bryan Scott would have starting potential here as well, as would a lot of mid-round draft picks. Got to improve on at least one of the starting OLB positions.
4) I'm probably drafting a QB in the second round. I highly doubt Mr. Khan is going to want to pay Marc Bulger $8.5 mil based on his recent output. David Carr's a high-character player who obviously has experience being a very-highly-drafted QB. I'd try to bring him in to mentor the new kid, wherever I draft one, and be the stopgap starter. He'd be a lot cheaper than Bulger. Sounds like Chad Pennington's willing to give Miami the hometown discount, and he's still very uncertain medically.
5) On the o-line, quit teasing me, Rams! They're trying to put Alex Barron on the market by only tendering him for a second-round pick. Quit giving us hope; we all know we're going to get stuck with him. At least bench him heading into camp and make him (try to) win the (RT) job from Goldberg. I would try to sneak Kevin Boothe away from the G-Men (again with the Giants?!?!) to boost the interior depth.
6) My WR strategy has fallen completely apart. The Giants backup receivers I was going to go after were NOT unrestricted free agents (thanx, Rotoworld), so my sleeper options are gone. Burleson and Chambers seem pretty determined to stay with their current teams. Kevin Walter's going to have a lot of teams bidding. Sounds like some #2-quality WRs are about to get overpaid, and I'm going to be stuck holding a bag full of mediocre Rams WRs, though I'd at least try to make Burleson a decent offer.
7) I'm not anticipating a big move in the secondary. As I have said, I am (perhaps irrationally) intrigued with Bryan Scott of the Bills and would be looking at him for safety and linebacker depth.
8) The Rams are going to have difficulty signing any RB who actually wants playing time. Fortunately, there's been a lot of shakeout at the position in free agency. I will not be surprised at all to see the Rams pick their #2 RB for 2010 off the waiver wire. No need to rush into anything here.
Valuable resources for this year's free agent preview capsules:
(a/k/a who I'm blaming when I get something badly wrong)
Rotoworld
SBNation
StLouisRams.com
KFFL
FootballsFuture.com
NFL.com
NFLLabor.com
Pro Football Reference
RB changed a lot: 1) Brian Westbrook 2) Darren Sproles 3) Thomas Jones 4) LaDainian Tomlinson 5) Willie Parker
Sadly, though he was recently cut by the Bears, I'm not sure Orlando Pace would crack my top 5 OTs available.
So what would I do if I were Rams GM?
1) On the d-line, I'm hoping to talk Leonard Little back for one last season, and it sounds like he's at least leaning toward playing vs. retiring. Might have to sweeten the pot to keep him from talking to Haslett, though. I'm checking out Fred Robbins for the DT rotation and definitely burning the phone lines to New York to see what they'd want for Osi Umenyiora, whom they're not trying very hard not to piss off these days. Aaron Kampman should be Plan B; nobody seems to think his last season-ending knee injury will be a big concern. Defensive line is the area of the team the Rams have to be the most active in this offseason, in free agency, and the draft, where I'm still selecting Ndamukong Suh with the first pick overall, a notion that once would have been called a no-brainer.
2) Offensive priority number one in free agency is tight end. I'd pretty much have the Rammobile parked outside Ben Watson's house with a trunkful of cash. Should that fail, hopefully Randy McMichael would act like nothing happened. He could actually be the 2nd-best FA TE available.
3) I'm still not enthralled with the LB situation, and yes, I'm looking to the Giants yet again (and I'm not even Spagnuolo!). I strongly expect the Rams to end up with Antonio Pierce if he's healthy, and I'd also take a look at Danny Clark. Bryan Scott would have starting potential here as well, as would a lot of mid-round draft picks. Got to improve on at least one of the starting OLB positions.
4) I'm probably drafting a QB in the second round. I highly doubt Mr. Khan is going to want to pay Marc Bulger $8.5 mil based on his recent output. David Carr's a high-character player who obviously has experience being a very-highly-drafted QB. I'd try to bring him in to mentor the new kid, wherever I draft one, and be the stopgap starter. He'd be a lot cheaper than Bulger. Sounds like Chad Pennington's willing to give Miami the hometown discount, and he's still very uncertain medically.
5) On the o-line, quit teasing me, Rams! They're trying to put Alex Barron on the market by only tendering him for a second-round pick. Quit giving us hope; we all know we're going to get stuck with him. At least bench him heading into camp and make him (try to) win the (RT) job from Goldberg. I would try to sneak Kevin Boothe away from the G-Men (again with the Giants?!?!) to boost the interior depth.
6) My WR strategy has fallen completely apart. The Giants backup receivers I was going to go after were NOT unrestricted free agents (thanx, Rotoworld), so my sleeper options are gone. Burleson and Chambers seem pretty determined to stay with their current teams. Kevin Walter's going to have a lot of teams bidding. Sounds like some #2-quality WRs are about to get overpaid, and I'm going to be stuck holding a bag full of mediocre Rams WRs, though I'd at least try to make Burleson a decent offer.
7) I'm not anticipating a big move in the secondary. As I have said, I am (perhaps irrationally) intrigued with Bryan Scott of the Bills and would be looking at him for safety and linebacker depth.
8) The Rams are going to have difficulty signing any RB who actually wants playing time. Fortunately, there's been a lot of shakeout at the position in free agency. I will not be surprised at all to see the Rams pick their #2 RB for 2010 off the waiver wire. No need to rush into anything here.
Valuable resources for this year's free agent preview capsules:
(a/k/a who I'm blaming when I get something badly wrong)
Rotoworld
SBNation
StLouisRams.com
KFFL
FootballsFuture.com
NFL.com
NFLLabor.com
Pro Football Reference
FA preview: defensive backs
Ah, youth, 'tis a blessing and a curse. Had yours truly had more of it, maybe these free agency capsules would have been out a lot quicker (and been a lot better). There was no lack of youth in the Ram secondary last season. Too often, though, there was a lack of pass coverage. And even with all their youth, the Ram DBs were still frequent victims of the injury bug. That mitigating factor makes it very likely that the Rams are going to be comfortable bringing back most of last year's contingent. A veteran free agent here would mostly get in the way of a young player, so I'm not looking for the Rams to make much of a move for one.
So the DB rundown should go pretty quick.
Defensive backs
Rams current depth chart:
Corner: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quincy Butler, Danny Gorrer, Jonathan Wade, Cord Parks, Marcus Brown
Safety: Free: Oshiomogho Atogwe, Craig Dahl, David Roach, Classy Eric Bassey
Strong: James Butler, Clinton Hart
Notes: The current CBA reverts Atogwe to restricted free agent status for 2010.
Bassey, Dahl and Wade are all standard RFAs. Hart is unrestricted.
Analysis: Bartell signed a long-term contract with the Rams after turning down a chance to join the Saints, and both sides of the transaction regretted their 2009 ROI. Bartell was one of the season's biggest disappointments. Some weeks it looked like he couldn't cover anybody at all. He got beaten deep far too often and kept Fakhir Brown's legacy alive with failures to turn his head to find the ball in the air. Heck, even Torry Holt had his way with Bartell last year. Since he was said to be playing most of the season with injuries, while still breaking up a fair share of passes, I'll give Bartell a mulligan, if a multi-million dollar one, for 2009. He sure played much better in 2008. Rookie Fletcher had taken over as the #2 CB by midseason, and was flashing some shutdown form until the Dome FieldTurf attempted to turn his knee into pop art during the Colts game. Let's hope his rehab stays ahead of schedule and he comes back 100%. As a virtual rookie, King made plenty of youthful mistakes, and his play could use a stronger physical edge, but he seems to be rounding into nice form at nickel. Quincy Butler at times showed nice range, big-play ability and willingness in run support. If he strengthens his physical play some more, the Rams could have quite a foursome. Wade spent 2009 in the new coaching staff's doghouse for reasons no one still can determine, and the Rams unsurprisingly let it out this morning that they're not bringing him back. And I'll stay puzzled. Wade's young, has speed, is a willing tackler; he should have been worth something around here. It was ridiculous that Gorrer spent any time ahead of Wade on the depth chart last year. He makes Tye Hill look like Aeneas Williams. It's embarrassing, and frankly, a bit disturbing, to still see him on the current Rams roster. It's highly embarrassing and deeply disturbing that Rams cornerbacks combined for ZERO interceptions last year. That's one less than Johnny Jolly, the Packers' 325-lb backup nose tackle! Pick off some passes next season, people!
Injuries plagued the whole Ram secondary. Oshiomogho Atogwe was back to his old tricks, forcing 5 turnovers through 11 games, but missed the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. James Butler led the team with 3 INTs, but I make little secret of my opinion that he was awful and another big disappointment of the season, just ok in run support, bad in tackling, bad in coverage. I feel pretty sure he played more banged-up all season than anyone really let on, though, so here's another multi-million dollar mulligan. Dahl was fine in a backup role. Hart's a former Charger starter and might not be a bad bringback if he's not too expensive. Roach vs. Bassey could be a good training camp battle. Bassey's rebounding from a knee injury and Roach made some special teams plays.
Free agency
Top 5 UFA CBs: 1) Leigh Bodden 2) Dunta Robinson 3) Nick Harper 4) Brian Williams 5) Will James
Top 5 UFA safeties: 1) Darren Sharper 2) Ryan Clark 3) Bryan Scott 4) Mike Brown 5) John Wendling
Sleepers: Bryan Scott, Walt Harris, Rod Hood, Nathan Jones
Thanks, we'll get back to you: Ralph Brown, Tyrone Carter, Nick Ferguson, Vernon Fox, Corey Ivy, Todd Johnson, Sean Jones, Kevin Kaesviharn, Ty Law, Ken Lucas, Marquand Manuel, Hank Poteat, Pierson Prioleau, Mark Roman, Brian Russell, Benny Sapp, Deshea Townsend, Matt Ware, Dante Wesley
Gawd no: Dre Bly, Anthony Henry, Frank Walker, Jermaine Phillips, Roy Williams
Viewing the field: At corner, Bodden's phone should be ringing a lot come March 5th. He had five INTs and played 80% of the snaps in New England. He has great size and is just 28. I'm not sure Robinson's ever lived up to his rookie hype. (I blame his parents for not knowing how to spell "Dante".) He's got youth on his side at 27, though, and being all the way back from a torn ACL back in 2008, he should improve on his no-pick season last year. Age and injuries are catching up to Harper, who I think would help a secondary more as a steadying veteran influence. You wouldn't want to expose him to a lot of man-to-man. Williams has been very steady everywhere he's played and can step up as a #1 corner when a team needs him to. James flashed some big-play ability last season and has the Giants/Eagles pedigree that would make him attractive to the Rams' current leadership.
Sharper was the league's defensive MVP last season. Even at 34, it's surprising the Saints didn't franchise him. FS Clark had 3 INTs and 110 tackles in Pittsburgh last year and is the kind of hitter many secondaries need. Wendling made it in mostly for being only 26 and being one of the best players on Buffalo's excellent special teams units, and DO NOT get me started on who their coach was. 32-year-old Brown had a respectable 3 INTs and nearly 100 tackles in K.C. last year, and has actually survived two straight seasons now without a catastrophic injury. Betting on a third might be risky.
My interest in Scott, another former Bill, comes from him converting from safety to linebacker in midseason and coming away with 81 tackles, 2 sacks and an INT in only 9 games. At 28, he seems like a versatile player who would help a team's defensive depth. Harris is 35 and missed 2009 because of an ACL injury. Would be a shame if that ends his career, because few were playing better at the time when he was injured. The Rams flirted last offseason with the idea of signing Hood, who ended up playing only 4 games last year in Tennessee. He had three INTs and a TD return in those games, though, as a sub for Harper. Jones is another good special teamer, and he beat former first-round pick Jason Allen out in Miami at nickel, before getting beat out there by a couple of rookies himself.
You want your young players to learn from the veterans. In Dre Bly's case, I don't want our players learning how to get stripped from behind while showboating like an idiot 5 yards into an interception return and giving the ball back. Maybe it's bad luck, I don't know, but Henry and Walker have never looked remotely good in any game of theirs I have ever watched. I'm talking Danny Gorrer-bad. Jermaine Phillips was arrested in January on the oddly-specific charge of "domestic battery by strangulation". Not accused, arrested. And thanks to Roy Williams for inventing the horse-collar penalty. You can retire now. What, he's just 29?
RamView's move: I'm intrigued by Scott and think he'd be helpful here as linebacker and safety depth. I'd also make sure to keep Dahl for depth. I would have given Wade an honest shot at nickel in training camp. Hopefully the current players will change their play a lot instead of the front office having to change a lot of the players. They're close to being good in a lot of ways.
Prediction: If I had posted this last night, I could have bragged that I correctly predicted the Rams wouldn't even bother to make Wade a RFA offer. I think I see Jim Haslett in D.C. waving at Jonathan right now. Something I should have mentioned by now was how little help the secondary got last year from the pass rush. Optimistically, that will get better and help the DBs out. They'll improve by playing healthy, and that'll improve them by letting them play together as a unit. And by Gorrer going back to the Home Depot and never again setting foot on an NFL field. All the improvement coming without the front office really making a move.
Fingers crossed.
So the DB rundown should go pretty quick.
Defensive backs
Rams current depth chart:
Corner: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quincy Butler, Danny Gorrer, Jonathan Wade, Cord Parks, Marcus Brown
Safety: Free: Oshiomogho Atogwe, Craig Dahl, David Roach, Classy Eric Bassey
Strong: James Butler, Clinton Hart
Notes: The current CBA reverts Atogwe to restricted free agent status for 2010.
Bassey, Dahl and Wade are all standard RFAs. Hart is unrestricted.
Analysis: Bartell signed a long-term contract with the Rams after turning down a chance to join the Saints, and both sides of the transaction regretted their 2009 ROI. Bartell was one of the season's biggest disappointments. Some weeks it looked like he couldn't cover anybody at all. He got beaten deep far too often and kept Fakhir Brown's legacy alive with failures to turn his head to find the ball in the air. Heck, even Torry Holt had his way with Bartell last year. Since he was said to be playing most of the season with injuries, while still breaking up a fair share of passes, I'll give Bartell a mulligan, if a multi-million dollar one, for 2009. He sure played much better in 2008. Rookie Fletcher had taken over as the #2 CB by midseason, and was flashing some shutdown form until the Dome FieldTurf attempted to turn his knee into pop art during the Colts game. Let's hope his rehab stays ahead of schedule and he comes back 100%. As a virtual rookie, King made plenty of youthful mistakes, and his play could use a stronger physical edge, but he seems to be rounding into nice form at nickel. Quincy Butler at times showed nice range, big-play ability and willingness in run support. If he strengthens his physical play some more, the Rams could have quite a foursome. Wade spent 2009 in the new coaching staff's doghouse for reasons no one still can determine, and the Rams unsurprisingly let it out this morning that they're not bringing him back. And I'll stay puzzled. Wade's young, has speed, is a willing tackler; he should have been worth something around here. It was ridiculous that Gorrer spent any time ahead of Wade on the depth chart last year. He makes Tye Hill look like Aeneas Williams. It's embarrassing, and frankly, a bit disturbing, to still see him on the current Rams roster. It's highly embarrassing and deeply disturbing that Rams cornerbacks combined for ZERO interceptions last year. That's one less than Johnny Jolly, the Packers' 325-lb backup nose tackle! Pick off some passes next season, people!
Injuries plagued the whole Ram secondary. Oshiomogho Atogwe was back to his old tricks, forcing 5 turnovers through 11 games, but missed the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. James Butler led the team with 3 INTs, but I make little secret of my opinion that he was awful and another big disappointment of the season, just ok in run support, bad in tackling, bad in coverage. I feel pretty sure he played more banged-up all season than anyone really let on, though, so here's another multi-million dollar mulligan. Dahl was fine in a backup role. Hart's a former Charger starter and might not be a bad bringback if he's not too expensive. Roach vs. Bassey could be a good training camp battle. Bassey's rebounding from a knee injury and Roach made some special teams plays.
Free agency
Top 5 UFA CBs: 1) Leigh Bodden 2) Dunta Robinson 3) Nick Harper 4) Brian Williams 5) Will James
Top 5 UFA safeties: 1) Darren Sharper 2) Ryan Clark 3) Bryan Scott 4) Mike Brown 5) John Wendling
Sleepers: Bryan Scott, Walt Harris, Rod Hood, Nathan Jones
Thanks, we'll get back to you: Ralph Brown, Tyrone Carter, Nick Ferguson, Vernon Fox, Corey Ivy, Todd Johnson, Sean Jones, Kevin Kaesviharn, Ty Law, Ken Lucas, Marquand Manuel, Hank Poteat, Pierson Prioleau, Mark Roman, Brian Russell, Benny Sapp, Deshea Townsend, Matt Ware, Dante Wesley
Gawd no: Dre Bly, Anthony Henry, Frank Walker, Jermaine Phillips, Roy Williams
Viewing the field: At corner, Bodden's phone should be ringing a lot come March 5th. He had five INTs and played 80% of the snaps in New England. He has great size and is just 28. I'm not sure Robinson's ever lived up to his rookie hype. (I blame his parents for not knowing how to spell "Dante".) He's got youth on his side at 27, though, and being all the way back from a torn ACL back in 2008, he should improve on his no-pick season last year. Age and injuries are catching up to Harper, who I think would help a secondary more as a steadying veteran influence. You wouldn't want to expose him to a lot of man-to-man. Williams has been very steady everywhere he's played and can step up as a #1 corner when a team needs him to. James flashed some big-play ability last season and has the Giants/Eagles pedigree that would make him attractive to the Rams' current leadership.
Sharper was the league's defensive MVP last season. Even at 34, it's surprising the Saints didn't franchise him. FS Clark had 3 INTs and 110 tackles in Pittsburgh last year and is the kind of hitter many secondaries need. Wendling made it in mostly for being only 26 and being one of the best players on Buffalo's excellent special teams units, and DO NOT get me started on who their coach was. 32-year-old Brown had a respectable 3 INTs and nearly 100 tackles in K.C. last year, and has actually survived two straight seasons now without a catastrophic injury. Betting on a third might be risky.
My interest in Scott, another former Bill, comes from him converting from safety to linebacker in midseason and coming away with 81 tackles, 2 sacks and an INT in only 9 games. At 28, he seems like a versatile player who would help a team's defensive depth. Harris is 35 and missed 2009 because of an ACL injury. Would be a shame if that ends his career, because few were playing better at the time when he was injured. The Rams flirted last offseason with the idea of signing Hood, who ended up playing only 4 games last year in Tennessee. He had three INTs and a TD return in those games, though, as a sub for Harper. Jones is another good special teamer, and he beat former first-round pick Jason Allen out in Miami at nickel, before getting beat out there by a couple of rookies himself.
You want your young players to learn from the veterans. In Dre Bly's case, I don't want our players learning how to get stripped from behind while showboating like an idiot 5 yards into an interception return and giving the ball back. Maybe it's bad luck, I don't know, but Henry and Walker have never looked remotely good in any game of theirs I have ever watched. I'm talking Danny Gorrer-bad. Jermaine Phillips was arrested in January on the oddly-specific charge of "domestic battery by strangulation". Not accused, arrested. And thanks to Roy Williams for inventing the horse-collar penalty. You can retire now. What, he's just 29?
RamView's move: I'm intrigued by Scott and think he'd be helpful here as linebacker and safety depth. I'd also make sure to keep Dahl for depth. I would have given Wade an honest shot at nickel in training camp. Hopefully the current players will change their play a lot instead of the front office having to change a lot of the players. They're close to being good in a lot of ways.
Prediction: If I had posted this last night, I could have bragged that I correctly predicted the Rams wouldn't even bother to make Wade a RFA offer. I think I see Jim Haslett in D.C. waving at Jonathan right now. Something I should have mentioned by now was how little help the secondary got last year from the pass rush. Optimistically, that will get better and help the DBs out. They'll improve by playing healthy, and that'll improve them by letting them play together as a unit. And by Gorrer going back to the Home Depot and never again setting foot on an NFL field. All the improvement coming without the front office really making a move.
Fingers crossed.
Monday, March 1, 2010
FA preview: linebackers
Everybody knows a dollar doesn't buy what it used to, and it's easily demonstrated at the linebacker position in the NFL. Dick Butkus' first contract, in 1965, was for 5 years and $204,000. Total. He's in the Hall of Fame and went to 8 Pro Bowls. Lawrence Taylor's rookie contract in 1981 paid him $250,000 a year. In 1990, he held out for $2 million a year. He's in the Hall of Fame, went to 10 Pro Bowls and has 2 Super Bowl rings. Karlos Dansby, who would have cost the Big Dead $16 million to franchise for this season, is said to be after $30 million guaranteed in his next contract. No Pro Bowls, no championships.
Well, maybe Dansby's a lot like LT or Butkus and you're just paying inflation? No. Here's the list of players whose careers Pro Football Reference says are most like Dansby's to this point: Derrick O. Johnson, Kirk Morrison, Darren Hambrick, LeRoy Hill, David Griggs, Michael Boley, Stan Blinka, Jim Files, Channing Crowder, D.J. Williams. Granted, this is inexact science, but how many of those would you pay $30 million for if you were a GM?
I should probably be quiet about my "spidey-sense," but Dansby makes it tingle. My guess is either Dansby or Adewale Ogunleye, who's going to get paid for producing mainly against bad teams, will be the bust of 2010's free agent class.
Linebacker
Rams current depth chart:
MLB: James Laurinaitis, Dominic Douglas
WLB: Paris Lenon, Chris Chamberlain
SLB: David Vobora, Larry Grant, K.C. Asiodu
Notes: Lenon is an unrestricted free agent.
Analysis:
Laurinaitis was the easy winner for Rams Rookie of the Year, registering 120 tackles and looking a lot of the time like the man who'll anchor this defense for the next decade. He's not a complete linebacker yet - he'll have to take a good leap in pass coverage skills to get there, and also not chomp on play-fakes so much - but it's taken him little time at all to become one of the stars and leaders of the team, and it looks like he has a high ceiling. The Rams traded Will Witherspoon to Philadelphia for Brandon Gibson before the season barely got started, and abruptly dumped now-34-year-old Chris Draft before the season actually did start. They ended up with Lions refugee Lenon, no youngster himself at 32, manning the weakside. I actually liked Lenon as a free agent last year. He totaled 42 tackles in 13 games in '09 and forced 3 fumbles, more than any Ram besides Oshiomogho Atogwe. I think he's a guy you could go with into a season as a starter but still don't see him as an upgrade over Draft or Witherspoon. And whatever the plan was at strongside LB, it didn't work. Let's face it, what did they expect? The competition for starter was between two 2008 seventh-round draft picks: Mr. Irrelevant Vobora and 49ers practice squadder Grant. Vobora made some plays, but got blocked out of many, many, more, and never really seized the job thanks to injuries and a 4-week PED suspension. Grant seemed to be out of position a lot of the time and didn't play anywhere close to the promise he showed in preseason. Similarly 7th-rounders and rookie free agents, Chamberlain, Asiodu and Douglas were mainly special teams players, where Chamberlain shows some promise; not as much, though, when he's been called upon to take the field with the defense. Lenon aside, the Ram linebacker corps is hurting badly for experience (maybe if they didn't get rid of all they had!), speed, hitting, physical presence, and any ability whatsoever to cover tight ends. Other than that, they're fine!
Free agency
Top 5 UFA MLBs: 1) Gary Brackett 2) Karlos Dansby 3) Larry Foote 4) Antonio Pierce (INJ) 5) Matt Wilhelm
Top 5 UFA OLBs: 1) Tully Banta-Cain 2) Scott Fujita 3) Keith Bulluck (INJ) 4) Danny Clark 5) Chris Draft
Sleepers: Rocky Boiman
Thanks, we'll get back to you: Cato June, Ryan Fowler, Matt Wilhelm, Monty Beisel, Larry To The Izzo, Senior Seau, Tony Gilbert, Jeremiah Trotter, Josh Stamer, Darrell McClover, Vinny Ciurciu, Sam Williams, Tracy White, D.D. Lewis, Khary Campbell, Justin Rogers, Mike Vrabel
The doctor will see you now: Keith Bulluck, Antonio Pierce, Angelo Crowell, Chaun Thompson, Nick Greisen, and, of course, Pisa Tinoisamoa
Gawd no: Odell Thurman, last with, naturally, the Bengals, is under indefinite suspension by the league for substance abuse violations. (I wonder if indefinite suspension is anything like double-secret probation.) His defensive coordinator for the UFL's Orlando Tuskers, though, says he played "lights-out" there. Wait a minute, wasn't mass-marijuana consumer Claude Wroten also on that Tuskers team? Who's the genius who put those two guys together? Bless you, Jim Haslett.
Viewing the field: A pass-rushing linebacker for Bill Belichick, Banta-Cain is one of those guys who always manages to make a lot of plays. And with 9.5 sacks last year, he trailed only Julius Peppers among 2010 free agents. That's impressive enough to make me wonder how he'd look in a 4-3, anyway. Fujita's been a reliable 80-90 tackle guy for the Saints and has been an underrated playmaker his whole career. Bulluck is a tackling machine and has anchored the Titan defense for a decade, but you'd be getting him this year off a torn ACL. Clark was the Giants' best LB against the run last year. Hmm, Giants, Spagnuolo... Draft racked up 59 tackles in Buffalo after his rude dismissal here right before the season opener. He was the smart, leader-type and "pillar" you'd have thought Spagnuolo would have wanted to keep around. That bridge, though, is probably burned. Boiman was one of my sleeper players last year, then played only 6 games in Pittsburgh and had just 6 tackles. I don't have an explanation for that, but I'll double down on Rocky anyway. He had 166 tackles the previous two seasons. He's got a good nose for the ball. He's a good special-teams player. He's just 29. What's the deal, NFL?
Brackett was the vastly-overlooked key to the Colt defense last year, especially their running game. Over 700 tackles the last five years. Good grief. The Big Dead can't afford to franchise Dansby again, but few other teams are going to be able to afford what he thinks he's worth. It may be especially tough to pay Dansby big money when he had one sack last season. You could sign Larry Foote, just a year older, considerably more cheaply and get most of Dansby's production. If he can pass the physical, Pierce knows and lives and breathes Spagnuolo's system and could hit the ground here running, and would have the football IQ, speed and range to adjust to an outside role. Don't ask me about anybody after Pierce. The linebacker free agent market is so filled with aging veterans and guys who mainly play special teams, I nearly rated Bobby Boucher 5th.
RamView's move: I hate to use a draft pick on LB when the Rams have so many other prominent position needs. Put another way, the Rams are too broken to fix with only one year of drafting and free agency. The pass rush is too weak not to at least consider Banta-Cain as a specialist, but he won't come cheap and I don't believe would really be a good fit in Steve Spagnuolo's system. Clark has experience and is a run-stopper, two things the Rams need a lot. They need to bring in veterans who can play and can step in right away. They may have to get creative, but the Rams need to make significant moves here, and I suspect free agency would be the best way.
Prediction: It's very easy to see the Rams drafting a linebacker in the second or third round, especially if they don't make a significant move in free agency (which they won't) or draft a QB first overall (which they may). That could really put someone like Mizzou's Sean Weatherspoon in play. The draft pick will eventually beat out Lenon for one of the starters flanking Laurinaitis, with FOSS Pierce manning the other flank.
Well, maybe Dansby's a lot like LT or Butkus and you're just paying inflation? No. Here's the list of players whose careers Pro Football Reference says are most like Dansby's to this point: Derrick O. Johnson, Kirk Morrison, Darren Hambrick, LeRoy Hill, David Griggs, Michael Boley, Stan Blinka, Jim Files, Channing Crowder, D.J. Williams. Granted, this is inexact science, but how many of those would you pay $30 million for if you were a GM?
I should probably be quiet about my "spidey-sense," but Dansby makes it tingle. My guess is either Dansby or Adewale Ogunleye, who's going to get paid for producing mainly against bad teams, will be the bust of 2010's free agent class.
Linebacker
Rams current depth chart:
MLB: James Laurinaitis, Dominic Douglas
WLB: Paris Lenon, Chris Chamberlain
SLB: David Vobora, Larry Grant, K.C. Asiodu
Notes: Lenon is an unrestricted free agent.
Analysis:
Laurinaitis was the easy winner for Rams Rookie of the Year, registering 120 tackles and looking a lot of the time like the man who'll anchor this defense for the next decade. He's not a complete linebacker yet - he'll have to take a good leap in pass coverage skills to get there, and also not chomp on play-fakes so much - but it's taken him little time at all to become one of the stars and leaders of the team, and it looks like he has a high ceiling. The Rams traded Will Witherspoon to Philadelphia for Brandon Gibson before the season barely got started, and abruptly dumped now-34-year-old Chris Draft before the season actually did start. They ended up with Lions refugee Lenon, no youngster himself at 32, manning the weakside. I actually liked Lenon as a free agent last year. He totaled 42 tackles in 13 games in '09 and forced 3 fumbles, more than any Ram besides Oshiomogho Atogwe. I think he's a guy you could go with into a season as a starter but still don't see him as an upgrade over Draft or Witherspoon. And whatever the plan was at strongside LB, it didn't work. Let's face it, what did they expect? The competition for starter was between two 2008 seventh-round draft picks: Mr. Irrelevant Vobora and 49ers practice squadder Grant. Vobora made some plays, but got blocked out of many, many, more, and never really seized the job thanks to injuries and a 4-week PED suspension. Grant seemed to be out of position a lot of the time and didn't play anywhere close to the promise he showed in preseason. Similarly 7th-rounders and rookie free agents, Chamberlain, Asiodu and Douglas were mainly special teams players, where Chamberlain shows some promise; not as much, though, when he's been called upon to take the field with the defense. Lenon aside, the Ram linebacker corps is hurting badly for experience (maybe if they didn't get rid of all they had!), speed, hitting, physical presence, and any ability whatsoever to cover tight ends. Other than that, they're fine!
Free agency
Top 5 UFA MLBs: 1) Gary Brackett 2) Karlos Dansby 3) Larry Foote 4) Antonio Pierce (INJ) 5) Matt Wilhelm
Top 5 UFA OLBs: 1) Tully Banta-Cain 2) Scott Fujita 3) Keith Bulluck (INJ) 4) Danny Clark 5) Chris Draft
Sleepers: Rocky Boiman
Thanks, we'll get back to you: Cato June, Ryan Fowler, Matt Wilhelm, Monty Beisel, Larry To The Izzo, Senior Seau, Tony Gilbert, Jeremiah Trotter, Josh Stamer, Darrell McClover, Vinny Ciurciu, Sam Williams, Tracy White, D.D. Lewis, Khary Campbell, Justin Rogers, Mike Vrabel
The doctor will see you now: Keith Bulluck, Antonio Pierce, Angelo Crowell, Chaun Thompson, Nick Greisen, and, of course, Pisa Tinoisamoa
Gawd no: Odell Thurman, last with, naturally, the Bengals, is under indefinite suspension by the league for substance abuse violations. (I wonder if indefinite suspension is anything like double-secret probation.) His defensive coordinator for the UFL's Orlando Tuskers, though, says he played "lights-out" there. Wait a minute, wasn't mass-marijuana consumer Claude Wroten also on that Tuskers team? Who's the genius who put those two guys together? Bless you, Jim Haslett.
Viewing the field: A pass-rushing linebacker for Bill Belichick, Banta-Cain is one of those guys who always manages to make a lot of plays. And with 9.5 sacks last year, he trailed only Julius Peppers among 2010 free agents. That's impressive enough to make me wonder how he'd look in a 4-3, anyway. Fujita's been a reliable 80-90 tackle guy for the Saints and has been an underrated playmaker his whole career. Bulluck is a tackling machine and has anchored the Titan defense for a decade, but you'd be getting him this year off a torn ACL. Clark was the Giants' best LB against the run last year. Hmm, Giants, Spagnuolo... Draft racked up 59 tackles in Buffalo after his rude dismissal here right before the season opener. He was the smart, leader-type and "pillar" you'd have thought Spagnuolo would have wanted to keep around. That bridge, though, is probably burned. Boiman was one of my sleeper players last year, then played only 6 games in Pittsburgh and had just 6 tackles. I don't have an explanation for that, but I'll double down on Rocky anyway. He had 166 tackles the previous two seasons. He's got a good nose for the ball. He's a good special-teams player. He's just 29. What's the deal, NFL?
Brackett was the vastly-overlooked key to the Colt defense last year, especially their running game. Over 700 tackles the last five years. Good grief. The Big Dead can't afford to franchise Dansby again, but few other teams are going to be able to afford what he thinks he's worth. It may be especially tough to pay Dansby big money when he had one sack last season. You could sign Larry Foote, just a year older, considerably more cheaply and get most of Dansby's production. If he can pass the physical, Pierce knows and lives and breathes Spagnuolo's system and could hit the ground here running, and would have the football IQ, speed and range to adjust to an outside role. Don't ask me about anybody after Pierce. The linebacker free agent market is so filled with aging veterans and guys who mainly play special teams, I nearly rated Bobby Boucher 5th.
RamView's move: I hate to use a draft pick on LB when the Rams have so many other prominent position needs. Put another way, the Rams are too broken to fix with only one year of drafting and free agency. The pass rush is too weak not to at least consider Banta-Cain as a specialist, but he won't come cheap and I don't believe would really be a good fit in Steve Spagnuolo's system. Clark has experience and is a run-stopper, two things the Rams need a lot. They need to bring in veterans who can play and can step in right away. They may have to get creative, but the Rams need to make significant moves here, and I suspect free agency would be the best way.
Prediction: It's very easy to see the Rams drafting a linebacker in the second or third round, especially if they don't make a significant move in free agency (which they won't) or draft a QB first overall (which they may). That could really put someone like Mizzou's Sean Weatherspoon in play. The draft pick will eventually beat out Lenon for one of the starters flanking Laurinaitis, with FOSS Pierce manning the other flank.
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