FA preview: linebackers

Everybody knows a dollar doesn't buy what it used to, and it's easily demonstrated at the linebacker position in the NFL. Dick Butkus' first contract, in 1965, was for 5 years and $204,000. Total. He's in the Hall of Fame and went to 8 Pro Bowls. Lawrence Taylor's rookie contract in 1981 paid him $250,000 a year. In 1990, he held out for $2 million a year. He's in the Hall of Fame, went to 10 Pro Bowls and has 2 Super Bowl rings. Karlos Dansby, who would have cost the Big Dead $16 million to franchise for this season, is said to be after $30 million guaranteed in his next contract. No Pro Bowls, no championships.

Well, maybe Dansby's a lot like LT or Butkus and you're just paying inflation? No. Here's the list of players whose careers Pro Football Reference says are most like Dansby's to this point: Derrick O. Johnson, Kirk Morrison, Darren Hambrick, LeRoy Hill, David Griggs, Michael Boley, Stan Blinka, Jim Files, Channing Crowder, D.J. Williams. Granted, this is inexact science, but how many of those would you pay $30 million for if you were a GM?

I should probably be quiet about my "spidey-sense," but Dansby makes it tingle. My guess is either Dansby or Adewale Ogunleye, who's going to get paid for producing mainly against bad teams, will be the bust of 2010's free agent class.

Linebacker

Rams current depth chart:
MLB: James Laurinaitis, Dominic Douglas

WLB: Paris Lenon, Chris Chamberlain

SLB: David Vobora, Larry Grant, K.C. Asiodu

Notes: Lenon is an unrestricted free agent.

Analysis:
Laurinaitis was the easy winner for Rams Rookie of the Year, registering 120 tackles and looking a lot of the time like the man who'll anchor this defense for the next decade. He's not a complete linebacker yet - he'll have to take a good leap in pass coverage skills to get there, and also not chomp on play-fakes so much - but it's taken him little time at all to become one of the stars and leaders of the team, and it looks like he has a high ceiling. The Rams traded Will Witherspoon to Philadelphia for Brandon Gibson before the season barely got started, and abruptly dumped now-34-year-old Chris Draft before the season actually did start. They ended up with Lions refugee Lenon, no youngster himself at 32, manning the weakside. I actually liked Lenon as a free agent last year. He totaled 42 tackles in 13 games in '09 and forced 3 fumbles, more than any Ram besides Oshiomogho Atogwe. I think he's a guy you could go with into a season as a starter but still don't see him as an upgrade over Draft or Witherspoon. And whatever the plan was at strongside LB, it didn't work. Let's face it, what did they expect? The competition for starter was between two 2008 seventh-round draft picks: Mr. Irrelevant Vobora and 49ers practice squadder Grant. Vobora made some plays, but got blocked out of many, many, more, and never really seized the job thanks to injuries and a 4-week PED suspension. Grant seemed to be out of position a lot of the time and didn't play anywhere close to the promise he showed in preseason. Similarly 7th-rounders and rookie free agents, Chamberlain, Asiodu and Douglas were mainly special teams players, where Chamberlain shows some promise; not as much, though, when he's been called upon to take the field with the defense. Lenon aside, the Ram linebacker corps is hurting badly for experience (maybe if they didn't get rid of all they had!), speed, hitting, physical presence, and any ability whatsoever to cover tight ends. Other than that, they're fine!

Free agency

Top 5 UFA MLBs: 1) Gary Brackett 2) Karlos Dansby 3) Larry Foote 4) Antonio Pierce (INJ) 5) Matt Wilhelm

Top 5 UFA OLBs: 1) Tully Banta-Cain 2) Scott Fujita 3) Keith Bulluck (INJ) 4) Danny Clark 5) Chris Draft

Sleepers: Rocky Boiman

Thanks, we'll get back to you: Cato June, Ryan Fowler, Matt Wilhelm, Monty Beisel, Larry To The Izzo, Senior Seau, Tony Gilbert, Jeremiah Trotter, Josh Stamer, Darrell McClover, Vinny Ciurciu, Sam Williams, Tracy White, D.D. Lewis, Khary Campbell, Justin Rogers, Mike Vrabel

The doctor will see you now: Keith Bulluck, Antonio Pierce, Angelo Crowell, Chaun Thompson, Nick Greisen, and, of course, Pisa Tinoisamoa

Gawd no: Odell Thurman, last with, naturally, the Bengals, is under indefinite suspension by the league for substance abuse violations. (I wonder if indefinite suspension is anything like double-secret probation.) His defensive coordinator for the UFL's Orlando Tuskers, though, says he played "lights-out" there. Wait a minute, wasn't mass-marijuana consumer Claude Wroten also on that Tuskers team? Who's the genius who put those two guys together? Bless you, Jim Haslett.

Viewing the field: A pass-rushing linebacker for Bill Belichick, Banta-Cain is one of those guys who always manages to make a lot of plays. And with 9.5 sacks last year, he trailed only Julius Peppers among 2010 free agents. That's impressive enough to make me wonder how he'd look in a 4-3, anyway. Fujita's been a reliable 80-90 tackle guy for the Saints and has been an underrated playmaker his whole career. Bulluck is a tackling machine and has anchored the Titan defense for a decade, but you'd be getting him this year off a torn ACL. Clark was the Giants' best LB against the run last year. Hmm, Giants, Spagnuolo... Draft racked up 59 tackles in Buffalo after his rude dismissal here right before the season opener. He was the smart, leader-type and "pillar" you'd have thought Spagnuolo would have wanted to keep around. That bridge, though, is probably burned. Boiman was one of my sleeper players last year, then played only 6 games in Pittsburgh and had just 6 tackles. I don't have an explanation for that, but I'll double down on Rocky anyway. He had 166 tackles the previous two seasons. He's got a good nose for the ball. He's a good special-teams player. He's just 29. What's the deal, NFL?

Brackett was the vastly-overlooked key to the Colt defense last year, especially their running game. Over 700 tackles the last five years. Good grief. The Big Dead can't afford to franchise Dansby again, but few other teams are going to be able to afford what he thinks he's worth. It may be especially tough to pay Dansby big money when he had one sack last season. You could sign Larry Foote, just a year older, considerably more cheaply and get most of Dansby's production. If he can pass the physical, Pierce knows and lives and breathes Spagnuolo's system and could hit the ground here running, and would have the football IQ, speed and range to adjust to an outside role. Don't ask me about anybody after Pierce. The linebacker free agent market is so filled with aging veterans and guys who mainly play special teams, I nearly rated Bobby Boucher 5th.

RamView's move: I hate to use a draft pick on LB when the Rams have so many other prominent position needs. Put another way, the Rams are too broken to fix with only one year of drafting and free agency. The pass rush is too weak not to at least consider Banta-Cain as a specialist, but he won't come cheap and I don't believe would really be a good fit in Steve Spagnuolo's system. Clark has experience and is a run-stopper, two things the Rams need a lot. They need to bring in veterans who can play and can step in right away. They may have to get creative, but the Rams need to make significant moves here, and I suspect free agency would be the best way.

Prediction: It's very easy to see the Rams drafting a linebacker in the second or third round, especially if they don't make a significant move in free agency (which they won't) or draft a QB first overall (which they may). That could really put someone like Mizzou's Sean Weatherspoon in play. The draft pick will eventually beat out Lenon for one of the starters flanking Laurinaitis, with FOSS Pierce manning the other flank.