Just got a copy of Mel Kiper's latest mock draft:
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long, OT Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long, DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
4 Oakland Raiders *Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs *Branden Albert, OT/G Virginia
6 New York Jets *Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio St.
7 New England Patriots (from SF) *Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
8 Baltimore Ravens Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
9 Cincinnati Bengals Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
10 New Orleans Saints Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee St.
11 Buffalo Bills *Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
12 Denver Broncos Keith Rivers, LB USC
13 Carolina Panthers *Ryan Clady, OT Boise St.
14 Chicago Bears Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
15 Detroit Lions *Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
16 Arizona Cardinals Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
17 Minnesota Vikings *Phillip Merling, DE Clemson
18 Houston Texans *Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
19 Philadelphia Eagles Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
21 Washington Redskins *Devin Thomas, WR Michigan St.
22 Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) *Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
23 Pittsburgh Steelers Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina
24 Tennessee Titans *DeSean Jackson, WR California
25 Seattle Seahawks Dustin Keller, TE Purdue
26 Jacksonville Jaguars Lawrence Jackson, DE USC
27 San Diego Chargers Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College
28 Dallas Cowboys *Justin King, CB Penn St.
29 San Francisco 49ers (from IND) *Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee
30 Green Bay Packers *Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech
31 New England Patriots Forfeited pick
32 New York Giants Tyrell Johnson, S Arkansas St.
The notable thing about Kiper's mock is that he has just two WR's going in the first round - Devin Thomas and DeSean Jackson - giving the Rams pretty much whoever they want in round 2. Quentin Groves would be a logical pick for Miami at 33, but he could also be on the board, as would Sam Baker and Antoine Cason.
RamView's selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Limas Sweed
That's a helluva start if things go the way Kiper sees them.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Mock draft crunching, 4/2
At nfl.com, Pat Kirwan has Vernon Gholston going #1 overall and Chris Long to the Rams. The way his first round shakes out, I'd be between Sam Baker and Antoine Cason in the 2nd round. Thomas, Hardy and Sweed are his first round WRs, leaving me not really big right now on the remaining WR prospects in the 2nd round.
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Sam Baker, though I'm waffling
Vic Carucci goes with Chris Long to Miami, Jake Long to the Rams. Gholston goes sixth. Carucci's mock is fairly, well, let's say different, with a bizarre seven DBs going in the first round and a first round nod for Calais Campbell. Really? James Hardy's available in this scenario; unfortunately for him, he has dropped off RamView's board thanks to the knowledge that he's a woman-beater. Taking Jake Long first does work great in this mock, though, because the Rams would likely be able to choose between Philip Merling and Quentin Groves in the second round. Baker and Cason would also be available, as would a curve ball in RB Jonathan Stewart. But even if I took Long or Gholston for the Rams at #2, if the board is still that well-stacked in the second round, I'm going DE again, or trading down for a bushel of picks.
RamView selections: 1 - Vernon Gholston 2 - Philip Merling. Pass. Rush.
Scott Wright hasn't updated the mock at nfldraftcountdown since St. Patrick's Day. It's still Jake Long first, with the Rams taking Chris Long in the 1st and Mario Manningham in the 2nd.
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Baker or Cason, still waffling
draftdaddy hasn't updated its mock since 3/20. They still go with Chris Long first, Vernon Gholston to the Rams. I'll update my scenario, though:
RamView selections: 1 - Gholston 2 - Devin Thomas
Walterfootball's five-round mock as of 3/27:
1 - Gholston 2 - Anthony Collins 3 - Manningham 4 - Steve Justice 5 - Ali Highsmith
RamView selections: I'm still right on board with this draft. I haven't seen Collins quite this high before. He's probably worth it, or Baker could go there instead. I'm fine with Manningham as a third-rounder. And I'm big on drafting a center. In the 5th, I'd prefer Bruce Davis or Marcus Griffin, with Lavelle Hawkins and Steve Slaton temptingly, and surprisingly, available.
Closing with the big drafttek seven-round draft: (drafttek pretty much updates its mock daily)
1 - Chris Long 2 - Early Doucet 3 - Cliff Avril 4 - Andre Woodson 5 - Patrick Lee
6a - Caleb Campbell 6b - Fernando Velasco 7a - Spencer Larsen Mr. Irrelevant - Jerome Felton
RamView selections:
1 - Chris Long
2 - Sam Baker unless I become a big Doucet fan
3 - Earl Bennett, though I like how drafttek's going after pass rushers for the Rams.
4 - Josh Barrett (WTF, drafttek? ANDRE WOODSON?)
5 - I'd sure take Lee if he's still there; he's a 2nd or 3rd-rounder in most mocks.
6a - Tommy Blake. I've got two sixth-rounders; I'll gamble with one.
6b - Terrence Wheatley for value
7a - Malik Jackson
7b - Shannon Boatman
Hard to see the DBs shaking out like this. I also didn't get my center.
3 1/2 weeks to go!
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Sam Baker, though I'm waffling
Vic Carucci goes with Chris Long to Miami, Jake Long to the Rams. Gholston goes sixth. Carucci's mock is fairly, well, let's say different, with a bizarre seven DBs going in the first round and a first round nod for Calais Campbell. Really? James Hardy's available in this scenario; unfortunately for him, he has dropped off RamView's board thanks to the knowledge that he's a woman-beater. Taking Jake Long first does work great in this mock, though, because the Rams would likely be able to choose between Philip Merling and Quentin Groves in the second round. Baker and Cason would also be available, as would a curve ball in RB Jonathan Stewart. But even if I took Long or Gholston for the Rams at #2, if the board is still that well-stacked in the second round, I'm going DE again, or trading down for a bushel of picks.
RamView selections: 1 - Vernon Gholston 2 - Philip Merling. Pass. Rush.
Scott Wright hasn't updated the mock at nfldraftcountdown since St. Patrick's Day. It's still Jake Long first, with the Rams taking Chris Long in the 1st and Mario Manningham in the 2nd.
RamView selections: 1 - Chris Long 2 - Baker or Cason, still waffling
draftdaddy hasn't updated its mock since 3/20. They still go with Chris Long first, Vernon Gholston to the Rams. I'll update my scenario, though:
RamView selections: 1 - Gholston 2 - Devin Thomas
Walterfootball's five-round mock as of 3/27:
1 - Gholston 2 - Anthony Collins 3 - Manningham 4 - Steve Justice 5 - Ali Highsmith
RamView selections: I'm still right on board with this draft. I haven't seen Collins quite this high before. He's probably worth it, or Baker could go there instead. I'm fine with Manningham as a third-rounder. And I'm big on drafting a center. In the 5th, I'd prefer Bruce Davis or Marcus Griffin, with Lavelle Hawkins and Steve Slaton temptingly, and surprisingly, available.
Closing with the big drafttek seven-round draft: (drafttek pretty much updates its mock daily)
1 - Chris Long 2 - Early Doucet 3 - Cliff Avril 4 - Andre Woodson 5 - Patrick Lee
6a - Caleb Campbell 6b - Fernando Velasco 7a - Spencer Larsen Mr. Irrelevant - Jerome Felton
RamView selections:
1 - Chris Long
2 - Sam Baker unless I become a big Doucet fan
3 - Earl Bennett, though I like how drafttek's going after pass rushers for the Rams.
4 - Josh Barrett (WTF, drafttek? ANDRE WOODSON?)
5 - I'd sure take Lee if he's still there; he's a 2nd or 3rd-rounder in most mocks.
6a - Tommy Blake. I've got two sixth-rounders; I'll gamble with one.
6b - Terrence Wheatley for value
7a - Malik Jackson
7b - Shannon Boatman
Hard to see the DBs shaking out like this. I also didn't get my center.
3 1/2 weeks to go!
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
The draft guides are here! The draft guides are here!
Monday was a particularly big day in the land of RamView, as the mail brought both the annual Pro Football Weekly Draft Guide and the scout.com draft guide. I've used both extensively in past draft analysis. A couple of quick observations on both, before I get myself to the business of devouring these things and stacking RamView's board:
The scout.com guide is quite disappointing this year. Instead of the comprehensive guide they've put together in the past, this year they're only breaking down the top 15 players at each position. Given the publishing time lag, this guide is worth less now than the Sporting News issue that'll come out right before the draft and will probably list more players.
Another interesting item is that scout.com ranked Vernon Gholston #THIRTY-SIX overall, and ranked him fifth-best at DE, behind Quentin Groves and Philip Merling. Yet their mock still had him going #2 overall to the Rams, with the Dolphins taking Chris Long. Their top players are Darren McFadden and Glenn Dorsey.
PFW bizarrely has the Dolphins taking Matt Ryan, followed by the Rams taking... Jake Long. I just cannot see the Rams leaving Chris Long AND Vernon Gholston on the board after they pick. Interestingly, PFW has Ryan ranked as THE top player in the draft, with a 7.00 ranking (9 = top rating = "once-in-a-lifetime player"), matching Jake Long and Dorsey. That's the first suggestion I've seen anywhere that Ryan is the best player. I don't even think Ryan's mother's mock draft has him going higher than 3. They also agree with Scott Wright that Jeff Otah's going 5th. Huh. Those 7's seem awful low as the high ratings compared to past drafts, but I'll have to go back and research that.
The scout.com guide is quite disappointing this year. Instead of the comprehensive guide they've put together in the past, this year they're only breaking down the top 15 players at each position. Given the publishing time lag, this guide is worth less now than the Sporting News issue that'll come out right before the draft and will probably list more players.
Another interesting item is that scout.com ranked Vernon Gholston #THIRTY-SIX overall, and ranked him fifth-best at DE, behind Quentin Groves and Philip Merling. Yet their mock still had him going #2 overall to the Rams, with the Dolphins taking Chris Long. Their top players are Darren McFadden and Glenn Dorsey.
PFW bizarrely has the Dolphins taking Matt Ryan, followed by the Rams taking... Jake Long. I just cannot see the Rams leaving Chris Long AND Vernon Gholston on the board after they pick. Interestingly, PFW has Ryan ranked as THE top player in the draft, with a 7.00 ranking (9 = top rating = "once-in-a-lifetime player"), matching Jake Long and Dorsey. That's the first suggestion I've seen anywhere that Ryan is the best player. I don't even think Ryan's mother's mock draft has him going higher than 3. They also agree with Scott Wright that Jeff Otah's going 5th. Huh. Those 7's seem awful low as the high ratings compared to past drafts, but I'll have to go back and research that.
Mr. Irrelevant will be a Ram
The NFL awarded supplementary draft picks yesterday. Four picks were added to the end of the third round, so it'll be that much harder for the Rams to land a player they want early in the 4th round. They were awarded a pick in the 7th - the very last pick of the draft, in fact. The lucky player drafted with that pick will become "Mr. Irrelevant" and have a parade thrown in his honor in some hick California town. No, I'm not making that up.
What the Rams should do is put together a list of high-character players worth honoring with a parade, whether or not they're position needs or even capable of making the Rams' roster, and take the best one at #252.
Why not? Why not use the opportunity to honor a student for heroism or community service? I doubt Mr. Irrelevants have a great track record of making their teams anyway - why not treat that pick like you're looking for the best person to give an honor to, and if he can actually play, it's all the better?
What the Rams should do is put together a list of high-character players worth honoring with a parade, whether or not they're position needs or even capable of making the Rams' roster, and take the best one at #252.
Why not? Why not use the opportunity to honor a student for heroism or community service? I doubt Mr. Irrelevants have a great track record of making their teams anyway - why not treat that pick like you're looking for the best person to give an honor to, and if he can actually play, it's all the better?
Training for success
I don't get to say Scott Linehan is doing something right very often, but after reading the Post-Dispatch's recent article on the changes the Rams are making in their training routine, there may still be reason to believe the coach still gets it.
Some of the team's new training techniques include bringing in a special speed trainer and a hand-to-hand combat trainer. First off, I thought most teams already had these trainers, so it's smart (and overdue) for the Rams to follow suit. See if these moves don't pay off in an improved pass rush next season.
They're also adding some special exercises to prevent injuries, which were epidemic last year on a team you'd have to argue was pretty poorly trained. They've added exercises designed to cut down on labrum and rotator cuff injuries, a must insurance policy for an offense that's relying heavily on Orlando Pace to bounce back from a couple of injury-filled seasons. (Ironically, now that he shows up for training camp on time, he's hurt frequently in the regular season.) And trying to cut down on high ankle sprains, they're adding a sand pit for running drills to strengthen ankles.
Excellent preventative, toughening, strengthening and technique-improving measures. Major credit to Linehan for innovating in the training program and using it to attack where the team has weaknesses. Linehan also deserves major credit for listening to his players, because the sand pit idea came from Brett Romberg, who ran in one at The U.
I'm not a fan of the impending training camp move, but Linehan is taking positive steps toward putting a fitter and more focused team on the field in 2008.
Some of the team's new training techniques include bringing in a special speed trainer and a hand-to-hand combat trainer. First off, I thought most teams already had these trainers, so it's smart (and overdue) for the Rams to follow suit. See if these moves don't pay off in an improved pass rush next season.
They're also adding some special exercises to prevent injuries, which were epidemic last year on a team you'd have to argue was pretty poorly trained. They've added exercises designed to cut down on labrum and rotator cuff injuries, a must insurance policy for an offense that's relying heavily on Orlando Pace to bounce back from a couple of injury-filled seasons. (Ironically, now that he shows up for training camp on time, he's hurt frequently in the regular season.) And trying to cut down on high ankle sprains, they're adding a sand pit for running drills to strengthen ankles.
Excellent preventative, toughening, strengthening and technique-improving measures. Major credit to Linehan for innovating in the training program and using it to attack where the team has weaknesses. Linehan also deserves major credit for listening to his players, because the sand pit idea came from Brett Romberg, who ran in one at The U.
I'm not a fan of the impending training camp move, but Linehan is taking positive steps toward putting a fitter and more focused team on the field in 2008.
Recent history of the #2 pick
I went over to drafthistory.com and put together this list, the second player taken in the first three rounds for the last 20 years.
2007 Calvin Johnson, Paul Posluszny, Usama Young
2006 Reggie Bush, D'Qwell Jackson, Eric Winston
2005 Ronnie Brown, Brodney Pool, OJ Atogwe
2004 Robert Gallery, Chris Snee, Nate Kaeding
2003 Charles Rogers, Boss Bailey, Corey Redding
2002 Julius Peppers, DeShaun Foster, Matt Schobel
2001 Leonard Davis, Quincy Morgan, Adrian Wilson
2000 LaVar Arrington, Darren Howard, Lloyd Harrison
1999 Donovan McNabb, Charles Fisher, Doug Brzezinski
1998 Ryan Leaf, Jerome Pathon, Jon Ritchie
1997 Darrell Russell, Nathan Davis, Troy Davis
1996 Kevin Hardy, Leeland McElroy, Aaron Beasley
1995 Tony Boselli, Terrance Shaw, William Henderson
1994 Marshall Faulk, Tre Johnson, Jason Mathews
1993 Rick Mirer, Chris Slade, Billy Joe Hobert
1992 Quentin Coryatt, Steve Israel, Clayton Holmes
1991 Eric Turner, Ed King, James Jones
1990 Blair Thomas, Darian Conner, Oliver Barnett
1989 Tony Mandarich, John Ford, Matt Brock
1988 Neil Smith, Chris Spielman, Kevin Walker
What can we take away from this? There are a TON of busts taken #2 overall. QB is a bust position, with McNabb overwhelmed by Leaf and Mirer. At tackle, Boselli is badly outnumbered by Mandarich, Gallery and Davis, who busted with the Big Dead but has become a force at OG in Dallas. LB is a major bust with Hardy and Coryatt washing out Arrington.
On the plus side, RB is pretty safe. Faulk may be the only Hall of Famer in this bunch; he, Brown and Bush more than make up for Blair Thomas. The safest position is -ahem- defensive end. They may not be HoFers, but Julius Peppers and Neil Smith have both been dominating DEs, and Russell was an almost immediate Pro Bowler on a great career path until drugs took him down.
It's eye-opening how few impact players are selected with the second pick in the second round. WRs Morgan and Pathon aren't really distinguished. The offensive line contingent of King, Johnson and Snee is decent, though hardly world-beating. The best positions seem to be LB and DE, though they don't come without their share of busts. Darren Howard's probably the best player taken in that slot the last 20 years, though Jackson is quickly on his way up.
Usama Young, Atogwe, Wilson and Beasley all make very good cases for grabbing a DB in the third round, especially when the 2nd round CBs are pretty bust-y. Outside of d-backs, and bizarrely, fullbacks and kickers, the slot's a total crapshoot, with emphasis on the first syllable.
The best position to draft at #2 in the 4th round is arguably guard (John Welbourne, Hunter Goodwin, Max Jean-Gilles), though Derrick Mason was drafted in that slot in 1997. DB and DT would be the positions to tend to avoid.
If we're to use the history of the #2 pick as a guide, the Rams would be better served to draft a DE in the first round, an o-lineman, LB or DE in the 2nd and a DB in the third.
I swear the eerie similarities between this analysis and my thoughts on who the Rams should draft in 2008 are coincidental.
2007 Calvin Johnson, Paul Posluszny, Usama Young
2006 Reggie Bush, D'Qwell Jackson, Eric Winston
2005 Ronnie Brown, Brodney Pool, OJ Atogwe
2004 Robert Gallery, Chris Snee, Nate Kaeding
2003 Charles Rogers, Boss Bailey, Corey Redding
2002 Julius Peppers, DeShaun Foster, Matt Schobel
2001 Leonard Davis, Quincy Morgan, Adrian Wilson
2000 LaVar Arrington, Darren Howard, Lloyd Harrison
1999 Donovan McNabb, Charles Fisher, Doug Brzezinski
1998 Ryan Leaf, Jerome Pathon, Jon Ritchie
1997 Darrell Russell, Nathan Davis, Troy Davis
1996 Kevin Hardy, Leeland McElroy, Aaron Beasley
1995 Tony Boselli, Terrance Shaw, William Henderson
1994 Marshall Faulk, Tre Johnson, Jason Mathews
1993 Rick Mirer, Chris Slade, Billy Joe Hobert
1992 Quentin Coryatt, Steve Israel, Clayton Holmes
1991 Eric Turner, Ed King, James Jones
1990 Blair Thomas, Darian Conner, Oliver Barnett
1989 Tony Mandarich, John Ford, Matt Brock
1988 Neil Smith, Chris Spielman, Kevin Walker
What can we take away from this? There are a TON of busts taken #2 overall. QB is a bust position, with McNabb overwhelmed by Leaf and Mirer. At tackle, Boselli is badly outnumbered by Mandarich, Gallery and Davis, who busted with the Big Dead but has become a force at OG in Dallas. LB is a major bust with Hardy and Coryatt washing out Arrington.
On the plus side, RB is pretty safe. Faulk may be the only Hall of Famer in this bunch; he, Brown and Bush more than make up for Blair Thomas. The safest position is -ahem- defensive end. They may not be HoFers, but Julius Peppers and Neil Smith have both been dominating DEs, and Russell was an almost immediate Pro Bowler on a great career path until drugs took him down.
It's eye-opening how few impact players are selected with the second pick in the second round. WRs Morgan and Pathon aren't really distinguished. The offensive line contingent of King, Johnson and Snee is decent, though hardly world-beating. The best positions seem to be LB and DE, though they don't come without their share of busts. Darren Howard's probably the best player taken in that slot the last 20 years, though Jackson is quickly on his way up.
Usama Young, Atogwe, Wilson and Beasley all make very good cases for grabbing a DB in the third round, especially when the 2nd round CBs are pretty bust-y. Outside of d-backs, and bizarrely, fullbacks and kickers, the slot's a total crapshoot, with emphasis on the first syllable.
The best position to draft at #2 in the 4th round is arguably guard (John Welbourne, Hunter Goodwin, Max Jean-Gilles), though Derrick Mason was drafted in that slot in 1997. DB and DT would be the positions to tend to avoid.
If we're to use the history of the #2 pick as a guide, the Rams would be better served to draft a DE in the first round, an o-lineman, LB or DE in the 2nd and a DB in the third.
I swear the eerie similarities between this analysis and my thoughts on who the Rams should draft in 2008 are coincidental.
Reche Caldwell signed
Clearing out a couple of items from last week:
The DC pipeline is flowing freely with the arrival of Al Saunders from the Redskins. Following Al and David Macklin to Rams Park is WR Reche Caldwell. He's ostensibly the replacement for Isaac Bruce, though he's had one season of more catches (61) than Isaac had last year (55). And that 61-catch 2006 season happened because he dumb-lucked his way into the #1 receiver role in New England's offense. The Patriots loved him so much, they acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kelley Washington after the 2006 season and cut Caldwell loose.
Apparently a Friend of Al, Caldwell's here after a big 15-catch half-season in Washington as the Redskins' #3 WR. At Washington, the #3 WR was more of a sixth or seventh option in a passing game that likes to throw to the backs and where TE Chris Cooley was the leading receiver.
Caldwell's in the same boat as other veterans just signed like Macklin and James Hall. The more any of these guys play, the worse off the Rams will be, because they shouldn't be anything more than depth, if they even make the roster. I'd rather draft Reche's brother Andre and have him make the team than sign Reche.
The Rams have signed veterans at WR, DE and CB the last couple of weeks while managing not to relieve their need to draft at any of the three positions.
The DC pipeline is flowing freely with the arrival of Al Saunders from the Redskins. Following Al and David Macklin to Rams Park is WR Reche Caldwell. He's ostensibly the replacement for Isaac Bruce, though he's had one season of more catches (61) than Isaac had last year (55). And that 61-catch 2006 season happened because he dumb-lucked his way into the #1 receiver role in New England's offense. The Patriots loved him so much, they acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kelley Washington after the 2006 season and cut Caldwell loose.
Apparently a Friend of Al, Caldwell's here after a big 15-catch half-season in Washington as the Redskins' #3 WR. At Washington, the #3 WR was more of a sixth or seventh option in a passing game that likes to throw to the backs and where TE Chris Cooley was the leading receiver.
Caldwell's in the same boat as other veterans just signed like Macklin and James Hall. The more any of these guys play, the worse off the Rams will be, because they shouldn't be anything more than depth, if they even make the roster. I'd rather draft Reche's brother Andre and have him make the team than sign Reche.
The Rams have signed veterans at WR, DE and CB the last couple of weeks while managing not to relieve their need to draft at any of the three positions.
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