Monday, July 11, 2011

Free agency preview: defensive backs

Top 5 UFA cornerbacks: 1 - Nnamdi Asomugha 2 - Johnathan Joseph 3 - Antonio Cromartie 4 - Josh Wilson 5 - Ike Taylor

Asomugha, one of the top two corners in the league, is the top player available at any position in free agency this year, if you've got about $20 million to spend. Joseph's play slipped a little last year, but he's still a top-10-quality corner, with excellent speed and 9 INTs over the last two seasons to go with it. Cromartie's shutdown-quality size and speed are borne out by his numbers - only 44% of passes at him were completions in 2010, 5th-best in the league. He's going to want a ton of money, though, most of which he'll need for child-support payments. Wilson ranked as Pro Football Focus' 5th-best corner overall last year and was Baltimore's best corner by the end of the season, with 3 picks in 9 starts. He's only 5'9" and is a little injury-prone, but he also has track-star speed, can help a team on returns and has four career pick-sixes. At 31, Taylor's an older version of Ron Bartell. Quality back, good tackler, terrible hands.

Top 5 UFA safeties: 1 - Quintin Mikell (SS) 2 - Danieal Manning (SS) 3 - Eric Weddle (FS) 4 - Dashon Goldson (FS) 5 - Abram Elam (SS)

Mikell rates first here even though he's 30. PFF graded him as the top cover safety in the league, he's one of the best run-support safeties in the league, and he played at a high level last season. Manning was PFF's fifth-best overall safety last season, would anybody have guessed that? More on him in a bit. Weddle is good in deep coverage, good against the run and reportedly already has 10 teams interested in him. Also just 26, Goldson called the Whiners' defensive signals last year and was their best DB while playing hurt much of the season. Forced 7 turnovers in 2009. Elam's not terribly fast but is a good playmaker, blitzer, run defender and tackler.

Sleepers: Chris Carr had a career season in Baltimore and was their best cover back until they acquired Josh Wilson. He doesn't intercept a lot of passes, so he'd fit right in here in St. Louis. Drew Coleman would give the Rams a playmaker at nickelback - he forced five fumbles last season - and, faint praise, wouldn't be a downgrade in coverage. He's a strong special teams player, as is Chinedum Ndukwe, who's just 26 and is progressing rapidly. A smart, physical safety with good ball skills.

Out of the running: Oshiomogho Atogwe (signed by Washington); Champ Bailey (re-signed by Denver); Ronde Barber (re-signed by Tampa Bay); Stanford Routt (re-signed by Oakland); Bob Sanders (signed with San Diego); Deshea Townsend (retired); Nathan Vasher (re-signed by Detroit); George Wilson (re-signed by Buffalo); Charlie Peprah (re-signed by Green Bay); Hiram Eugene (re-signed by Oakland)

Voting present:
CB: Carlos Rogers, Richard Marshall, Chris Houston, Brian Williams, Phillip Buchanon, William Gay, Kelly Jennings, Fabian Washington, Brandon McDonald, Michael Adams, Leigh Torrence, Lito Sheppard, Ashton Youboty, Drayton Florence, Dimitri Patterson, Eric Wright, Fred Bennett, Frank Walker, Karl Paymah, Will James, Anthony Madison, Corey Graham, Trumaine McBride, C.J. Wilson, Dante Hughes, Travis Daniels, Joey Thomas, Michael Coe, Marvin White

Safety: Roman Harper, Dawan Landry, Eric Smith, Brodney Pool, Reed Doughty, Gerald Sensabaugh, Bernard Pollard, Melvin Bullitt, Jordan Babineaux, *John Wendling, *Eric Frampton, *Pat Watkins, Darren Sharper, Atari Bigby, Donte Whitner, Jarrad Page, James Ihedigbo, Usama Young, Deon Grant, Jon McGraw, Pierson Prioleau, Brandon McGowan, Paul Oliver, Josh Bullocks, Nick (SUNSHINE) Sorenson, Gerald Alexander, *Chris Reis, Matt Ware, *Sean Considine, Marcus Hudson, Donnie Nickey, Ken Hamlin, Aaron Rouse, Anthony Smith, C.C. Brown

* Asterisked players could be worthwhile signings as special teams specialists.

The doctor will see you now: Al Harris, Maurice Leggett, Josh Bell, Roderick Hood, Ellis Hobbs, Will Blackmon, Gibril Wilson, Daniel Bullocks, Antoine Harris

Gawd no: Michael Huff's going to want a lot of money but I doubt he'll ever be worth it. His effort, heart and coverage skills have all come under serious question. People around the league figure the main reason he had a decent 2010 season was that it was his contract year. Oakland tried harder before the lockout to keep Stanford Routt (who's actually pretty good) and Hiram Eugene. Just say no.

Same for Eugene Wilson. Don't fall for name recognition here. He didn't force a single turnover last season, and Pro Football Focus ranked him the third-worst safety in the league last year. They ranked Alan Ball 2nd-worst, so say no to him, too. (The "winner"? Antrel Rolle.)

A name that comes up quite a bit, naturally, because he used to play for Steve Spagnuolo in New York, is Michael Johnson. No. He missed most of last season due to a herniated disc, and sources here in St. Louis say he has "personal issues" and "isn't very bright". He'd be a box safety at best anyway, because his coverage skills are questionable.

More just-say-nos: the awful Sabby Piscitelli, the aged Lawyer Milloy and the jilted Roy Williams. And on the hopefully-ex-Ram-but-I-wish-I-could-be-sure side, Kevin Dockery and Michael Lewis. Their major screwups at the beginning and end of the game helped cost the Rams a playoff berth when the Rams lost in overtime in San Francisco. Those should be cuttable offenses.

RamView's move: The dumbest thing I did with this year's FA previews was to do the DB position last, because the Rams' biggest need at any position is at safety with Atogwe gone. The Rams CANNOT, I repeat, CANNOT, go into the 2011 season with Craig Dahl and James Butler as their starting safeties. Dahl has terrible trouble with speed, and Butler can't cover me, and I'm 45 and run a 15-second 40. They can get by with Dahl at one of the safeties (though his injury history suggests Darian Stewart better keep warm on the bench) because he can hit and make some plays, but putting Butler back in the starting lineup would be a) a recipe for disaster and b) inexplicable. Fifth-round draft pick Jermale Hines at first take would be an in-the-box safety at best. Seventh-rounder Jonathan Nelson is a potential answer here, but a) he's been hurt a lot and b) there's a reason he was a seventh-rounder, right? The Rams HAVE to make a move and pick up a safety who can cover anybody.

At corner, the Rams have got an up-and-comer in Bradley Fletcher, and, at his best, a solid-but-unspectacular Ron Bartell. It looks like Jerome Murphy's set up to be the nickel, a daunting prospect since he may have struggled worse than any Rams defensive player last year besides Butler. He was a rookie, though, and the Rams' staff turned Fletcher into a NFL-quality starter pretty quickly; maybe he'll make a big leap. Behind him, the oft-injured Justin King will take one last run at a starting spot. Seventh-round pick Mikail Baker is listed as a corner, but with a year of college experience there, I can't imagine him as more than a sixth or seventh option. RamView wishes Kevin Dockery the best in his future endeavors. The Rams are going to have to improve at nickel back from within - once you get past the top 4-5 free agents who are going to command $8 million or more a year, quality drops pretty rapidly.

Danieal Manning may be one of the most underrated defensive backs in the league, and he's who I'd target for the Rams as free agent option #1. His passer-rating-against last year was under 60. He was only one of 5 safeties in the league not to give up a TD completion. Pro Football Focus scored him as having missed three tackles ALL SEASON LONG. (Some past Rams safeties have done that in one play.) He has 4.4 or better speed and excellent range and could help the Rams as a return man. And the Bears don't even want to keep him! They're going to start Major Wright. Manning's got a ton of skills the Ram secondary badly needs, and I don't think a team will have to come even close to breaking the bank to sign him. If I'm the Rams GM, he's the first call I make when the Great Free Agent Rush of 2011 opens.

Shoot the moon: Think outside the box: sign a top corner such as Wilson and move Bartell to safety. Well, you'd have three pretty good cover backs on the field every down, anyway.

Prediction: Letting Atogwe go doesn't mean the Rams aren't willing to spend money at the safety position. It just meant they didn't want to pay Atogwe's $8 million roster bonus. His quick move to Washington might have surprised Rams Park as much as it surprised Rams Nation. I do expect the Rams to be aggressive and go after Mikell, who we know was previously coached by Steve Spagnuolo. You don't have to sign him to a long contract, and he can be the bridge while Nelson or possibly Murphy develops into a starting quality safety on his own. At nickel, I expect any move would be low-cost and for depth, with the expectation that Murphy and King will fight it out for the position in training camp. For all his flaws, Dockery could get to hang around in that scenario.

Up next: a review of the reviews!

Photo: The Daily Press (Hampton Roads, VA)

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