One practice today at 3:50.
Just about all the Rams news I'm getting comes from stltoday's Rams page, Bill Coats' blog on stltoday, and Nick Wagoner's blog on stlouisrams.com. Coverage of training camp continues to be good and thorough.
* Jackson holdout day 7. Jackson will be up to $105,000 in potential fines if he doesn't report today. According to Information Week, that's what the average business technology manager makes in a year. That's also the price of a top-of-the-line 2009 Corvette.
* Linehan rips into team. Practices have been getting progressively sloppier the last couple of days, but got better again yesterday after a midfield tirade. Considering his shaky job status, Linehan had better show assertiveness managing his team. I think he's running camp the right way; there's no indication it's anything like a country club up there. My big issue is that Linehan better work Jackson like a dog once he ever shows up.
* Standout players: Leonard Little, Derek Stanley, Dan Kreider.
Little appears to be his old self again after a toe injury basically grounded him last season. If he could come back and have an eight-plus sack season, it would be huge for the Ram pass rush and the whole defense.
Stanley seems to make a highlight-reel play or two every day. It's boiling down to him and Dane Looker for the sixth WR slot, assuming they keep only six.
Kreider is also doing well in practice. If he makes the team, I believe he will improve the team by at least one win. The offense's incompetence in 3rd- and 4th-down short-yardage situations proved very costly last season, which was highly frustrating, because it could have been corrected by having a fullback on the roster who has any idea what he's doing. Kreider, I feel, can be that guy.
* Injuries.
Mark Setterstrom's out a couple of days due to a strained leg muscle. John Greco, another rookie having a very good camp by all accounts, has moved up to 1st-string RG in Setterstrom's absence. There are a lot of minor injuries all over the roster, including - surprise! Drew Bennett, who has a sore knee, and - surprise! Tye Hill, who has a bruised thigh. Blame for the rash of injuries seems to be going to Field Turf, which I always thought was supposed to be so great for reducing injuries. This is the first time the Rams have done all of their training camp practicing on the fake stuff, and it seems to be creating faster wear-and-tear on the players.
Huh. Rams Park has grass and is 600 miles CLOSER. Thanks for moving camp again, Coach.
* Ticket bundling plan won't work.
I was enthusiastic about the Rams' single-game ticket sale strategy yesterday, which attempts to make Cowboys and Bears fans buy tickets to a second game in order to get a ticket to see their favorites. It shouldn't have taken a day for me to figure out it wouldn't work, but it did. (Also, single-game tickets don't go on sale until tomorrow.)
The Rams' plan has no effect on PSL owners selling their seats. As we saw last year, Steeler and Packer fans filled the all-PSL lower bowl and flooded the whole upper tier of the Dome, also PSL country. The Rams' ticket office can only affect the four little corners of the Dome used for general admission.
The Rams' mindset is in the right place, but in reality, there's no reason to expect Cowboy Nation won't be well-represented in the Dome October 19, and there's little chance of preventing the Bears from having a home game in the Dome on November 23.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Traning camp headlines 7/30
Morning and afternoon practices today.
* Steven Jackson holdout day 6. Jackson's total potential fine for unexcused absence is now $90,000, enough to pay for two years' tuition and room and board at Harvard. Meanwhile, St. Louis' sports media overwhelmingly, from what I've heard, is on the Rams' side in negotiations, that Jackson ought to have signed the $7 million a year offer already and gotten into camp.
But just as overwhelmingly, they're ignoring Jackson's receiving statistics. They're ignoring the growth of the salary cap when comparing old contracts. They're downgrading Jackson for having fewer total rushing yards and ignoring that he has much fewer carries. It's a little lazy, I think, that they're just all piling on the fans' side because we're mad that a rich football player under contract can get away with violating that contract.
To recap other long posts I've made: yards-per-carry and durability are definitely fair issues to downgrade Jackson for compared to other RBs. I would not say to pay him as much as LaDainian Tomlinson. Except, LT's contract from 2004 is worth a lot more in today's dollars, more like $11 million a year than the $7.5 million he signed for.
Is Steven Jackson 80% the player LaDainian Tomlinson is? I think so. Maybe his market value is more like $9 million a year then.
And I'm sticking to that. I think the Rams are lowballing him.
* Donnie Avery to return kicks, but not for a while now.
Avery is the Rams' first option to return kickoffs right now. This is a good move. Avery's probably the fastest player the Rams have put back there in the St. Louis era. And unlike Chris Johnson, MARTZ, Avery actually has experience at the task, averaging over 28 yards a return his senior year, with a TD return. He has the speed to be very dangerous back there, certainly more than anybody the Rams have put back there recently.
Unfortunately, Avery is now going to be down for a couple of weeks due to what's described as a crack in his pelvic bone. Hard as it may be to believe from its description, this isn't considered a serious injury.
Let's hope Avery heals up nicely. I really like the idea of asking him to return kickoffs.
* Other injuries.
Mark Setterstrom missed time yesterday due to numbness in his left leg. Josh Thompson's torn plantar fascia ended his Ram career with an injury settlement. He has been replaced by 6'3", 315-lb defensive tackle Henry Smith, a rookie free agent from Texas A&M let go by New England last month. Either Smith has grown an inch since draft day, or somebody's lying about his height, which had been listed at 6'2". Chris Draft has been out the last couple of days with a sore lower back
* The under-the-radar injury.
OJ Atogwe hasn't worked much at all in camp due to his hamstrings. Then again, Brian Burwell reported seeing him with a bag of ice on his left knee. What's going on here? It's starting to become worrisome, since Atogwe's one of their best defensive players.
* Single game tickets on sale today.
Come on, Rams Nation; let's try to get a couple of home games on local TV.
The Rams have started using a policy with single-game tickets I totally approve: the Chicago game has been bundled with the Giants game, and the Dallas game has been bundled with the Buffalo game. You have to buy both. Other teams, for sure the Chargers and Big Dead, have employed this policy to keep their stadiums from being overrun by the visiting team's fans, which we all know has been a big problem in the Dome the last couple of years. A determined-enough Bears or Cowboys fan will always be able to find their way in, but I'm glad to see the Rams trying out ways to help us fans of the home team.
* Steven Jackson holdout day 6. Jackson's total potential fine for unexcused absence is now $90,000, enough to pay for two years' tuition and room and board at Harvard. Meanwhile, St. Louis' sports media overwhelmingly, from what I've heard, is on the Rams' side in negotiations, that Jackson ought to have signed the $7 million a year offer already and gotten into camp.
But just as overwhelmingly, they're ignoring Jackson's receiving statistics. They're ignoring the growth of the salary cap when comparing old contracts. They're downgrading Jackson for having fewer total rushing yards and ignoring that he has much fewer carries. It's a little lazy, I think, that they're just all piling on the fans' side because we're mad that a rich football player under contract can get away with violating that contract.
To recap other long posts I've made: yards-per-carry and durability are definitely fair issues to downgrade Jackson for compared to other RBs. I would not say to pay him as much as LaDainian Tomlinson. Except, LT's contract from 2004 is worth a lot more in today's dollars, more like $11 million a year than the $7.5 million he signed for.
Is Steven Jackson 80% the player LaDainian Tomlinson is? I think so. Maybe his market value is more like $9 million a year then.
And I'm sticking to that. I think the Rams are lowballing him.
* Donnie Avery to return kicks, but not for a while now.
Avery is the Rams' first option to return kickoffs right now. This is a good move. Avery's probably the fastest player the Rams have put back there in the St. Louis era. And unlike Chris Johnson, MARTZ, Avery actually has experience at the task, averaging over 28 yards a return his senior year, with a TD return. He has the speed to be very dangerous back there, certainly more than anybody the Rams have put back there recently.
Unfortunately, Avery is now going to be down for a couple of weeks due to what's described as a crack in his pelvic bone. Hard as it may be to believe from its description, this isn't considered a serious injury.
Let's hope Avery heals up nicely. I really like the idea of asking him to return kickoffs.
* Other injuries.
Mark Setterstrom missed time yesterday due to numbness in his left leg. Josh Thompson's torn plantar fascia ended his Ram career with an injury settlement. He has been replaced by 6'3", 315-lb defensive tackle Henry Smith, a rookie free agent from Texas A&M let go by New England last month. Either Smith has grown an inch since draft day, or somebody's lying about his height, which had been listed at 6'2". Chris Draft has been out the last couple of days with a sore lower back
* The under-the-radar injury.
OJ Atogwe hasn't worked much at all in camp due to his hamstrings. Then again, Brian Burwell reported seeing him with a bag of ice on his left knee. What's going on here? It's starting to become worrisome, since Atogwe's one of their best defensive players.
* Single game tickets on sale today.
Come on, Rams Nation; let's try to get a couple of home games on local TV.
The Rams have started using a policy with single-game tickets I totally approve: the Chicago game has been bundled with the Giants game, and the Dallas game has been bundled with the Buffalo game. You have to buy both. Other teams, for sure the Chargers and Big Dead, have employed this policy to keep their stadiums from being overrun by the visiting team's fans, which we all know has been a big problem in the Dome the last couple of years. A determined-enough Bears or Cowboys fan will always be able to find their way in, but I'm glad to see the Rams trying out ways to help us fans of the home team.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Traning camp headlines 7/29
One practice today at 3:50.
* Steven Jackson holdout day 5. Nothing brewing. Jackson's potential fine total is now up to $75,000, which would pretty much get you a top-of-the-line 2008 Corvette. Jim Thomas has a thorough article up this morning even though Jackson's agent Eugene Parker won't return his calls. Jackson has to report to camp by August 8th or he will lose a year toward becoming eligible for free agency. Thomas explains it all.
So let's see if Jackson holds out till that bitter end, by which point he'd tally up a total fine of $210,000. There have been no talks between Parker and Jay Zygmunt since Zygmunt demanded Jackson report to camp.
* Jackson offer $7M a year?
Thomas' article today also reveals the Rams have offered Jackson $7 million a season. Supposedly that places him among the top 4 backs in the NFL. Supposedly it would put Jackson behind only Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson, though that's not what I got out of my lengthy post on the subject yesterday.
A couple of things. Even I could figure out yesterday that $7M is less than the average of Reggie Bush's or Darren McFadden's contract, and Adrian Peterson is just under that mark. And as I said yesterday, when I suggested Jackson is probably worth $9 million a year (his numbers are as good as Johnson's, and it's laughable to pay him less than Portis, who averages just over $7M), it's dishonest not to include Shaun Alexander's contract when assessing the RB market. Not only is $7 mil not top-four money from Jackson's standpoint; how big a deal is $7 million when the current franchise tag is $6.5 million? Ooh, the Rams think Jackson is $half-a-million better than the sixth-best back in the league!
I also completely disagree with Thomas' contention that the offer "exceeds Jackson's production thus far in his NFL career". Thomas leaves out Jackson's receiving statistics, for one thing, and just suggests that Jackson's TD total is comparably low without accounting that the RBs he's being compared to have tended to be their team's only goal line weapons, or close to it. (Though trust me, as his FFL GM a couple of times, I can say Portis does NOT fit in that category.)
Get ready for whiplash here, because I'm on the verge of switching sides in this dispute.
Yes, Steven Jackson should get his ass in camp.
But yes, the Rams are lowballing him, even at $7M a year. If he signs a deal for that, the city ought to throw a parade for him, and he ought to fire his agent.
* Jackson offer four years?
Unless it's some kind of Freudian slip, Brian Burwell today seems to be suggesting that Jackson is after a - 4-year deal?
"You have to wonder why in the face of last year's 3-13 madness, management would do anything willingly that would pile on additional chaos to an otherwise upbeat offseason. Why not get the deal done now, lock him up for four years and be done with it?"
Really? Just four years? For Jackson, that's about the worst contract length I can think of. Jackson's negotiating leverage for the next contract, in 2012 when he's 29, is much worse than even 2011 when he's 28. The closer you are to 30, the worse your leverage is going to be. Over 30, forget it. I'd figure he'd look for a contract that would carry him into his lower 30's.
If they're going after a four-year deal, then this deal right here is going to be the biggest of Steven Jackson's career. No way do you do that in this market for $7M a year. If I'm Eugene Parker, and the Rams are offering a 4-year deal, I'm not even picking up the phone until the total deal gets up to $8M a year.
* Victor Adeyanju out with broken finger.
He has returned to St. Louis to have pins inserted into his broken middle finger. He's expected to be ready to go for the regular season with one of those cool big clubs on his hand. A broken middle finger, though, is really going to impact his ability to drive in the St. Louis area.
* Personnel moves.
The Rams have added 5'9" 170-lb CB Cortney Grixby - oh, great, another smurf - and 6'4", 327-lb OT Julius Wilson. Grixby helps pick up the slack with Fakhir Brown out injured, while Wilson, though he was cut by the Dolphins, who don't exactly have an offensive line feared around the league, is apparently so great the Rams actually sent the Turk out to the practice field to cut rookie FA Stephen Sene on the spot. Dude, that is harsh.
So we'll see what the Julius Wilson Era has in store.
* Steven Jackson holdout day 5. Nothing brewing. Jackson's potential fine total is now up to $75,000, which would pretty much get you a top-of-the-line 2008 Corvette. Jim Thomas has a thorough article up this morning even though Jackson's agent Eugene Parker won't return his calls. Jackson has to report to camp by August 8th or he will lose a year toward becoming eligible for free agency. Thomas explains it all.
So let's see if Jackson holds out till that bitter end, by which point he'd tally up a total fine of $210,000. There have been no talks between Parker and Jay Zygmunt since Zygmunt demanded Jackson report to camp.
* Jackson offer $7M a year?
Thomas' article today also reveals the Rams have offered Jackson $7 million a season. Supposedly that places him among the top 4 backs in the NFL. Supposedly it would put Jackson behind only Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson, though that's not what I got out of my lengthy post on the subject yesterday.
A couple of things. Even I could figure out yesterday that $7M is less than the average of Reggie Bush's or Darren McFadden's contract, and Adrian Peterson is just under that mark. And as I said yesterday, when I suggested Jackson is probably worth $9 million a year (his numbers are as good as Johnson's, and it's laughable to pay him less than Portis, who averages just over $7M), it's dishonest not to include Shaun Alexander's contract when assessing the RB market. Not only is $7 mil not top-four money from Jackson's standpoint; how big a deal is $7 million when the current franchise tag is $6.5 million? Ooh, the Rams think Jackson is $half-a-million better than the sixth-best back in the league!
I also completely disagree with Thomas' contention that the offer "exceeds Jackson's production thus far in his NFL career". Thomas leaves out Jackson's receiving statistics, for one thing, and just suggests that Jackson's TD total is comparably low without accounting that the RBs he's being compared to have tended to be their team's only goal line weapons, or close to it. (Though trust me, as his FFL GM a couple of times, I can say Portis does NOT fit in that category.)
Get ready for whiplash here, because I'm on the verge of switching sides in this dispute.
Yes, Steven Jackson should get his ass in camp.
But yes, the Rams are lowballing him, even at $7M a year. If he signs a deal for that, the city ought to throw a parade for him, and he ought to fire his agent.
* Jackson offer four years?
Unless it's some kind of Freudian slip, Brian Burwell today seems to be suggesting that Jackson is after a - 4-year deal?
"You have to wonder why in the face of last year's 3-13 madness, management would do anything willingly that would pile on additional chaos to an otherwise upbeat offseason. Why not get the deal done now, lock him up for four years and be done with it?"
Really? Just four years? For Jackson, that's about the worst contract length I can think of. Jackson's negotiating leverage for the next contract, in 2012 when he's 29, is much worse than even 2011 when he's 28. The closer you are to 30, the worse your leverage is going to be. Over 30, forget it. I'd figure he'd look for a contract that would carry him into his lower 30's.
If they're going after a four-year deal, then this deal right here is going to be the biggest of Steven Jackson's career. No way do you do that in this market for $7M a year. If I'm Eugene Parker, and the Rams are offering a 4-year deal, I'm not even picking up the phone until the total deal gets up to $8M a year.
* Victor Adeyanju out with broken finger.
He has returned to St. Louis to have pins inserted into his broken middle finger. He's expected to be ready to go for the regular season with one of those cool big clubs on his hand. A broken middle finger, though, is really going to impact his ability to drive in the St. Louis area.
* Personnel moves.
The Rams have added 5'9" 170-lb CB Cortney Grixby - oh, great, another smurf - and 6'4", 327-lb OT Julius Wilson. Grixby helps pick up the slack with Fakhir Brown out injured, while Wilson, though he was cut by the Dolphins, who don't exactly have an offensive line feared around the league, is apparently so great the Rams actually sent the Turk out to the practice field to cut rookie FA Stephen Sene on the spot. Dude, that is harsh.
So we'll see what the Julius Wilson Era has in store.
Monday, July 28, 2008
What's a fair deal for Steven Jackson?
I have been crunching a lot of numbers trying to figure out what a fair deal for Steven Jackson would amount to. One thing I understand for sure is that it takes a long time to figure out a fair deal.
Jackson no doubt wants to be paid at least in line with his NFL running back peers.
Some of the big RB contracts of recent years:
LaDainian Tomlinson (2004): 8 years, $60 million. He'll be 33 when it runs out.
Larry Johnson (2007): 6 years, $45 million. Also 33 at end of contract.
Reggie Bush (2006): 6 years, $62 million. Rookie contract.
Adrian Peterson (2007): 6 years, $40.5 million. Rookie contract.
Darren McFadden (2008): 6 years, $60 million. Rookie contract.
Shaun Alexander (2006): 8 years, $62 million. Contract would have gone on until he was 37, but he was cut.
Let's mention here that Jackson has been a terrific bargain so far in NFL terms. The contract he's not honoring right now was for $7 million -total- over 5 years. I read that this weekend and thought it was a misprint. You mean it wasn't, like, $27 million? The Rams have gotten excellent productivity out of their investment in Jackson so far.
Now, you or I or Jay Zygmunt could offer Jackson $8 million a year, call him one of the NFL's highest-paid RBs, and leave it at that. That wouldn't be completely honest, though, because the salary cap has gone up a lot since LT got his megadeal. So let's real quickly pro-rate those peer contracts:
Tomlinson: $87M for 8 ($11M a year)
Johnson: $48M for 6 ($8M)
Bush: $71M for 6 ($12M)
Peterson: $43M for 6 ($7M)
McFadden: $60M for 6 ($10M)
Alexander: $71M for 8 ($9M)
For argument's sake, I'm throwing out the rookie contracts at this point, while taking care not to blame Jackson for asking why he shouldn't get paid more than Reggie Bush. The veterans are more valid comparisons.
Let's see where they all stood statistically prior to signing their current contracts, compared to where Jackson is now (numbers approximate):
Jackson 2006-8: 43 games, 3576 yards, 4.27 a carry, 26 TDs rushing, 837 carries
171 rec, 1397 yards, 8.2 a catch, 6 TDs receiving + 1 passing TD
LT 2001-2003: 48 games, 4564 yards, 4.46 a carry, 37 TDs rushing, 1020 carries
238 rec, 1581 yards, 6.64 a catch, 5 TDs receiving + 1 passing TD
LJ 2005-2006: 32 games, 3539 yards, 4.83 a carry, 37 TDs rushing, 752 carries
74 rec, 753 yards, 10.2 a catch, 3 TDs receiving
SA 2003-2005: 48 games, 5011 yards, 4.78 a carry, 57 TDs rushing, 1050 carries
80 rec, 545 yards, 6.8 a catch, 7 TDs receiving
Except in the very glaring deficit in TDs, Jackson compares well to all three of these superstar RBs. I have him at 4.93 yards a touch. LT's at 4.88. Johnson's at 5.2, Alexander 4.9.
There are some things to note. Johnson in two years was pretty equal to what Jackson's done the last three. Alexander had FIVE excellent seasons prior to his megadeal, with no missed games. Tomlinson signed his deal very early in his career; he's been ringing up numbers like this, or, as in 2006, outrageously better, for seven years.
But it's also worth noting that except for 2006, Jackson's never really been the centerpiece of his offense the way the other three have. And in 2006, he had one of the best combined-yardage seasons in NFL history. He's hardly ever been the focus of a run-oriented offense in his career, especially near the goal line, where you could argue Tomlinson, Alexander and Johnson were their team's only scoring weapons.
If you're Steven Jackson, you're going to say you're at least as good as LaDainian Tomlinson, and that's how you should be paid. I'd say that's wrong. LaDainian's more durable, faster, a better runner, a better receiver, a better scorer. He's a more proven commodity. He's an automatic Pro Bowler. Jackson hasn't been.
I feel Jackson compares very well to Alexander and Johnson, though. He's a more versatile receiver, has produced as well even though he hasn't gotten to play in a run-oriented offense as much, and isn't basically his team's only scoring weapon.
I'd actually call $9 million a fair deal for Jackson on an annual basis, though his relative youth merits more, and I'd be willing to pay a little more a year now to get a shorter contract. I wouldn't doubt that Jackson would be after as much as eight years; that's what Tomlinson and Alexander got. Jackson is 25 now; such a contract would run out when he's 33, same deal Tomlinson and Johnson got. Of course, we saw what happened to Johnson and Alexander right after they got their big contracts, and Jackson's already shown durability issues in his career so far. An eight-year offer to Jackson would be a crazy one, even in the beyond-the-looking-glass world of sports, though 8 years for $70-75 mil would probably qualify as a coup for the Rams.
7 years, $65-66 million sounds like solid middle ground, and I'm considering that the fair offer when determining who the "bad guy" is in the Jackson negotiations. The Rams don't "have" to pay that. They can always franchise Jackson for about $7 mil and draft a rookie. Right now, that's sounding like the McFadden plan for the 2008 draft suggested, and Jackson's making that idea look good with his holdout.
There's no question that Jackson is the "bad guy" in negotiations right now because of that holdout, so I'd urge him once again to get his ass in camp.
Jackson no doubt wants to be paid at least in line with his NFL running back peers.
Some of the big RB contracts of recent years:
LaDainian Tomlinson (2004): 8 years, $60 million. He'll be 33 when it runs out.
Larry Johnson (2007): 6 years, $45 million. Also 33 at end of contract.
Reggie Bush (2006): 6 years, $62 million. Rookie contract.
Adrian Peterson (2007): 6 years, $40.5 million. Rookie contract.
Darren McFadden (2008): 6 years, $60 million. Rookie contract.
Shaun Alexander (2006): 8 years, $62 million. Contract would have gone on until he was 37, but he was cut.
Let's mention here that Jackson has been a terrific bargain so far in NFL terms. The contract he's not honoring right now was for $7 million -total- over 5 years. I read that this weekend and thought it was a misprint. You mean it wasn't, like, $27 million? The Rams have gotten excellent productivity out of their investment in Jackson so far.
Now, you or I or Jay Zygmunt could offer Jackson $8 million a year, call him one of the NFL's highest-paid RBs, and leave it at that. That wouldn't be completely honest, though, because the salary cap has gone up a lot since LT got his megadeal. So let's real quickly pro-rate those peer contracts:
Tomlinson: $87M for 8 ($11M a year)
Johnson: $48M for 6 ($8M)
Bush: $71M for 6 ($12M)
Peterson: $43M for 6 ($7M)
McFadden: $60M for 6 ($10M)
Alexander: $71M for 8 ($9M)
For argument's sake, I'm throwing out the rookie contracts at this point, while taking care not to blame Jackson for asking why he shouldn't get paid more than Reggie Bush. The veterans are more valid comparisons.
Let's see where they all stood statistically prior to signing their current contracts, compared to where Jackson is now (numbers approximate):
Jackson 2006-8: 43 games, 3576 yards, 4.27 a carry, 26 TDs rushing, 837 carries
171 rec, 1397 yards, 8.2 a catch, 6 TDs receiving + 1 passing TD
LT 2001-2003: 48 games, 4564 yards, 4.46 a carry, 37 TDs rushing, 1020 carries
238 rec, 1581 yards, 6.64 a catch, 5 TDs receiving + 1 passing TD
LJ 2005-2006: 32 games, 3539 yards, 4.83 a carry, 37 TDs rushing, 752 carries
74 rec, 753 yards, 10.2 a catch, 3 TDs receiving
SA 2003-2005: 48 games, 5011 yards, 4.78 a carry, 57 TDs rushing, 1050 carries
80 rec, 545 yards, 6.8 a catch, 7 TDs receiving
Except in the very glaring deficit in TDs, Jackson compares well to all three of these superstar RBs. I have him at 4.93 yards a touch. LT's at 4.88. Johnson's at 5.2, Alexander 4.9.
There are some things to note. Johnson in two years was pretty equal to what Jackson's done the last three. Alexander had FIVE excellent seasons prior to his megadeal, with no missed games. Tomlinson signed his deal very early in his career; he's been ringing up numbers like this, or, as in 2006, outrageously better, for seven years.
But it's also worth noting that except for 2006, Jackson's never really been the centerpiece of his offense the way the other three have. And in 2006, he had one of the best combined-yardage seasons in NFL history. He's hardly ever been the focus of a run-oriented offense in his career, especially near the goal line, where you could argue Tomlinson, Alexander and Johnson were their team's only scoring weapons.
If you're Steven Jackson, you're going to say you're at least as good as LaDainian Tomlinson, and that's how you should be paid. I'd say that's wrong. LaDainian's more durable, faster, a better runner, a better receiver, a better scorer. He's a more proven commodity. He's an automatic Pro Bowler. Jackson hasn't been.
I feel Jackson compares very well to Alexander and Johnson, though. He's a more versatile receiver, has produced as well even though he hasn't gotten to play in a run-oriented offense as much, and isn't basically his team's only scoring weapon.
I'd actually call $9 million a fair deal for Jackson on an annual basis, though his relative youth merits more, and I'd be willing to pay a little more a year now to get a shorter contract. I wouldn't doubt that Jackson would be after as much as eight years; that's what Tomlinson and Alexander got. Jackson is 25 now; such a contract would run out when he's 33, same deal Tomlinson and Johnson got. Of course, we saw what happened to Johnson and Alexander right after they got their big contracts, and Jackson's already shown durability issues in his career so far. An eight-year offer to Jackson would be a crazy one, even in the beyond-the-looking-glass world of sports, though 8 years for $70-75 mil would probably qualify as a coup for the Rams.
7 years, $65-66 million sounds like solid middle ground, and I'm considering that the fair offer when determining who the "bad guy" is in the Jackson negotiations. The Rams don't "have" to pay that. They can always franchise Jackson for about $7 mil and draft a rookie. Right now, that's sounding like the McFadden plan for the 2008 draft suggested, and Jackson's making that idea look good with his holdout.
There's no question that Jackson is the "bad guy" in negotiations right now because of that holdout, so I'd urge him once again to get his ass in camp.
Training camp headlines 7/28
Morning and afternoon practices today.
Most of the reactions to yesterday's session made possible by Nick Wagoner's stlouisrams.com blog (which I can actually link to today).
* The Rams have just lost Victor Adeyanju for 2-4 weeks due to a broken finger. Better put out a casting call for defensive linemen, especially tackles, pronto. Can we thank Claude Wroten enough for being such a stupid fuck-up, btw?
* Jackson holdout, day 4. No new news. Bill Coats is humorously keeping a running total of Jackson's promised fine for failing to honor his contract, which today should go up to $60,000. According to the Census Bureau, the median household income in the United States in 2006 was $48,201. Just for perspective.
* The unqualified star of camp so far is Randy McMichael. He is being used a ton in the Saunders offense and they are getting him the ball downfield for big plays. This sounds like great news, after Linehan completely wasted McMichael last season. My impression, though, is that Rams TEs have always seemed to get the ball in practice a lot more than they do in reality. It's also worth noting the Ram defense has rarely excelled at covering the TE. I know it's something they struggled at early in last year's training camp.
At the same time, though, it looks like the "Saunders effect" is really being felt here and that McMichael will be a valuable contributor to the offense this year, as well as a nice sleeper pick among FFL TEs.
* Culberson makes a move on first string LB.
Quinton Culberson has moved up to the first unit in practice, though Scott Linehan emphasizes Chris Draft is still the starter. Sounds like everything is still on track, though, for Culberson to become the starter, with the versatile Draft backing up all three LB positions (likely playing a lot of WLB after Pisa Tinoisamoa inevitably gets hurt). We all know Culberson makes lots of plays, so here's hoping he capitalizes on his big chance here.
* James Hall continues to tear it up. Yeah, it's funny how your team using the #2 pick in the draft at your position lights a fire under your butt. Wagoner's enthusiasm that the Rams are suddenly deep at DE seems misplaced here. Hall has never been more than, in Mike Claiborne's immortal words, "just a guy". Maybe he will be more effective in a lesser role as part of a DE rotation, but he's also a guy who's having a career season if he tops 5 sacks, and I think he's played on one team with a winning record in 8 seasons. He's not a difference-maker.
* David Vobora and Chris Chamberlain continue to play impressively at LB.
Chamberlain already has two interceptions - I think that's more than I saw in three different days of practice last season. The Rams wouldn't dare hit on both seventh-round draft picks, would they? These two players' stories will be very interesting to watch.
* Bruce Gradkowski, otoh...
Gradkowski's signing seemed to be a good correction to what I thought was a big draft day mistake by the Rams in failing to pick up a QB to replace Brock Berlin. Well, maybe not so much. Gradkowski's inaccurate passing so far is keeping Berlin in the race.
Do you know how awful a QB has to be to have difficulty beating Brock Berlin out for a job? Linehan preferred having NO third-string QB last year to having Berlin! Berlin more than justified that assessment with his completely-overwhelmed performance in Cincinnati last December.
I haven't heard how some of the later-drafted rookie QBs are faring so far in this year's camps, but keep an eye out for a fiasco in the making here at third-string QB. Again.
How hard can it be to get this position right? Is Jamie Martin available?
* Sporting News Today plug.
I thought it was worth an update to give a full recommendation to Sporting News' online magazine, Sporting News Today. SNT has a lot of what I miss in the print magazine. Baseball box scores are back! Transactions are back! Reporting on minor sports is back! This may make up somewhat for the decision to grossly cut back the print mag to a biweekly publication; we'll see. Right now it looks like the magazine's online and offline presences will work very well together.
Use IE to access Sporting News Today, though; I only get error pages trying to access it in Firefox.
Most of the reactions to yesterday's session made possible by Nick Wagoner's stlouisrams.com blog (which I can actually link to today).
* The Rams have just lost Victor Adeyanju for 2-4 weeks due to a broken finger. Better put out a casting call for defensive linemen, especially tackles, pronto. Can we thank Claude Wroten enough for being such a stupid fuck-up, btw?
* Jackson holdout, day 4. No new news. Bill Coats is humorously keeping a running total of Jackson's promised fine for failing to honor his contract, which today should go up to $60,000. According to the Census Bureau, the median household income in the United States in 2006 was $48,201. Just for perspective.
* The unqualified star of camp so far is Randy McMichael. He is being used a ton in the Saunders offense and they are getting him the ball downfield for big plays. This sounds like great news, after Linehan completely wasted McMichael last season. My impression, though, is that Rams TEs have always seemed to get the ball in practice a lot more than they do in reality. It's also worth noting the Ram defense has rarely excelled at covering the TE. I know it's something they struggled at early in last year's training camp.
At the same time, though, it looks like the "Saunders effect" is really being felt here and that McMichael will be a valuable contributor to the offense this year, as well as a nice sleeper pick among FFL TEs.
* Culberson makes a move on first string LB.
Quinton Culberson has moved up to the first unit in practice, though Scott Linehan emphasizes Chris Draft is still the starter. Sounds like everything is still on track, though, for Culberson to become the starter, with the versatile Draft backing up all three LB positions (likely playing a lot of WLB after Pisa Tinoisamoa inevitably gets hurt). We all know Culberson makes lots of plays, so here's hoping he capitalizes on his big chance here.
* James Hall continues to tear it up. Yeah, it's funny how your team using the #2 pick in the draft at your position lights a fire under your butt. Wagoner's enthusiasm that the Rams are suddenly deep at DE seems misplaced here. Hall has never been more than, in Mike Claiborne's immortal words, "just a guy". Maybe he will be more effective in a lesser role as part of a DE rotation, but he's also a guy who's having a career season if he tops 5 sacks, and I think he's played on one team with a winning record in 8 seasons. He's not a difference-maker.
* David Vobora and Chris Chamberlain continue to play impressively at LB.
Chamberlain already has two interceptions - I think that's more than I saw in three different days of practice last season. The Rams wouldn't dare hit on both seventh-round draft picks, would they? These two players' stories will be very interesting to watch.
* Bruce Gradkowski, otoh...
Gradkowski's signing seemed to be a good correction to what I thought was a big draft day mistake by the Rams in failing to pick up a QB to replace Brock Berlin. Well, maybe not so much. Gradkowski's inaccurate passing so far is keeping Berlin in the race.
Do you know how awful a QB has to be to have difficulty beating Brock Berlin out for a job? Linehan preferred having NO third-string QB last year to having Berlin! Berlin more than justified that assessment with his completely-overwhelmed performance in Cincinnati last December.
I haven't heard how some of the later-drafted rookie QBs are faring so far in this year's camps, but keep an eye out for a fiasco in the making here at third-string QB. Again.
How hard can it be to get this position right? Is Jamie Martin available?
* Sporting News Today plug.
I thought it was worth an update to give a full recommendation to Sporting News' online magazine, Sporting News Today. SNT has a lot of what I miss in the print magazine. Baseball box scores are back! Transactions are back! Reporting on minor sports is back! This may make up somewhat for the decision to grossly cut back the print mag to a biweekly publication; we'll see. Right now it looks like the magazine's online and offline presences will work very well together.
Use IE to access Sporting News Today, though; I only get error pages trying to access it in Firefox.
Between the lines, 7/28
Again, see also Nick Wagoner's stlouisrams.com blog.
* Position battle at center heating up.
Richie Incognito has reportedly settled down after a bad first day of camp, and coaches are ready to rotate him and Brett Romberg at the center position now. In Incognito's defense, he has flipped from guard to center a lot in his career, which certainly will account for a slow start this year. If he's dialed in now, there should be a super competition at center.
* Defensive line depth takes another whack as Josh Thompson suffered the second significant injury of camp. He's out up to a month after tearing a plantar fascia. For Thompson's sake, let's hope he's not an injury settlement footnote in NFL history, because it seems like he has a little game. The Rams are beyond thin on the d-line right now, though, and had better hit the waiver wire.
* Position battle at center heating up.
Richie Incognito has reportedly settled down after a bad first day of camp, and coaches are ready to rotate him and Brett Romberg at the center position now. In Incognito's defense, he has flipped from guard to center a lot in his career, which certainly will account for a slow start this year. If he's dialed in now, there should be a super competition at center.
* Defensive line depth takes another whack as Josh Thompson suffered the second significant injury of camp. He's out up to a month after tearing a plantar fascia. For Thompson's sake, let's hope he's not an injury settlement footnote in NFL history, because it seems like he has a little game. The Rams are beyond thin on the d-line right now, though, and had better hit the waiver wire.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Traning camp headlines 7/27
One practice this afternoon.
* Jackson holdout, day 3. No new news. I do have to say I disagree with the people who say it'll be no big deal if Jackson misses a couple of weeks in camp, because he'll be worked very lightly and will barely be used in the first couple of preseason games, which Bill Coats suggested at the start of camp.
I disagree COMPLETELY with this approach. Jackson, like many of the Rams' starters, needs to be working his ass off in training camp, and needs plenty of live snaps in preseason games. Scott Linehan tried the strategy of leaving Jackson in the garage last preseason. Come the regular season, it failed spectacularly. Jackson lost the Carolina game with two fumbles, something he rarely does and something that showed he was still knocking off a sizable amount of rust even though the games were counting now. He needs the contact, he needs the live action in preseason, to be ready for the regular season.
And how much did resting Jackson last preseason help save him from injury? None, he was already out of the lineup BY WEEK FOUR! Who knows, maybe preseason contact can actually toughen a player up for the regular season?
That's the most distressing thing to me about this holdout. Well, that and the lack of integrity in honoring a legal contract. Jackson needs to have his ass in camp, where he needs to be working it off, to be ready for the regular season. Otherwise, the only history we have on him says he's going to be rusty week 1 in Philadelphia. Nobody wants that.
* Fakhir Brown out 2-3 weeks with a slightly-torn rotator cuff. Eh, I wonder how much the Rams' brass is counting on him not to pull a Wroten anyway. Big opportunity here for Ron Bartell to shine, maybe his last chance considering the young CBs stacked up behind him.
* Early stars of camp: Keenan Burton and Chris Chamberlain. Donnie Avery also looked good once he finally showed up for practice. Good to see the very early returns to at least know the Rams haven't picked up a bunch of stiffs. Though as I noted in another post, Burton, who was frequently injured last year, has already developed tendinitis.
* Attendance: 400 yesterday morning, 600 yesterday afternoon. One-third or one-fourth of what they would have had in St. Louis. So if Scott Linehan's goal in moving training camp 600 miles away was to kill fan participation, congratulations, coach, you've done it.
* Jackson holdout, day 3. No new news. I do have to say I disagree with the people who say it'll be no big deal if Jackson misses a couple of weeks in camp, because he'll be worked very lightly and will barely be used in the first couple of preseason games, which Bill Coats suggested at the start of camp.
I disagree COMPLETELY with this approach. Jackson, like many of the Rams' starters, needs to be working his ass off in training camp, and needs plenty of live snaps in preseason games. Scott Linehan tried the strategy of leaving Jackson in the garage last preseason. Come the regular season, it failed spectacularly. Jackson lost the Carolina game with two fumbles, something he rarely does and something that showed he was still knocking off a sizable amount of rust even though the games were counting now. He needs the contact, he needs the live action in preseason, to be ready for the regular season.
And how much did resting Jackson last preseason help save him from injury? None, he was already out of the lineup BY WEEK FOUR! Who knows, maybe preseason contact can actually toughen a player up for the regular season?
That's the most distressing thing to me about this holdout. Well, that and the lack of integrity in honoring a legal contract. Jackson needs to have his ass in camp, where he needs to be working it off, to be ready for the regular season. Otherwise, the only history we have on him says he's going to be rusty week 1 in Philadelphia. Nobody wants that.
* Fakhir Brown out 2-3 weeks with a slightly-torn rotator cuff. Eh, I wonder how much the Rams' brass is counting on him not to pull a Wroten anyway. Big opportunity here for Ron Bartell to shine, maybe his last chance considering the young CBs stacked up behind him.
* Early stars of camp: Keenan Burton and Chris Chamberlain. Donnie Avery also looked good once he finally showed up for practice. Good to see the very early returns to at least know the Rams haven't picked up a bunch of stiffs. Though as I noted in another post, Burton, who was frequently injured last year, has already developed tendinitis.
* Attendance: 400 yesterday morning, 600 yesterday afternoon. One-third or one-fourth of what they would have had in St. Louis. So if Scott Linehan's goal in moving training camp 600 miles away was to kill fan participation, congratulations, coach, you've done it.
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