Path to the Draft, 3/20

The 3/19 show was postponed for NFL Network coverage of Peyton Manning's signing with the Broncos. Well, who wouldn't rather start their week on a Tuesday anyway?

Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Jamie Dukes, Charlie Casserly, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, Bucky Brooks

Team news:
Denver: Now that they have Manning, Denver's first temptation may be to draft offensive weapons for him, but what they really need to do is upgrade their secondary, which is really aging and got sliced to ribbons by Tom Brady in the playoffs. Their defense is already designed to get after the passer; fixing the secondary, plus Peyton's ability to put points on the board, is going to put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses.

Cleveland: Talk's increasing about Ryan Tannehill going as high as #4, but no one on the panel recommends it. Dukes liked Trent Richardson; Casserly thinks he would go with Justin Blackmon.




Player news:
Lots of QB talk on this show, Luck, Griffin, Manning, Tebow, Alex Smith re-signing with the 49ers. Amount of interest here? Little to none.

Casserly says he likes Tannehill better than Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman (!) OR Joe Flacco coming out. But still wouldn't use a top-10 pick on him. Davis also says he'd have a problem justifying Tannehill at #4 to Cleveland, or even at #8 to Miami.

Casserly does not see Baylor WR Kendall Wright as a first-round player, thinks he's just a slot receiver. Gets good separation on breaks but struggles to separate on deep routes as an outside receiver. You'd think that would make him pretty useless to the Rams, then, unless Jeff Fisher decides he needs a seventh slot receiver. Wright's hands are inconsistent, too. Casserly liked Santonio Holmes and Percy Harvin far better when they came out.

Coby Fleener: big, tall, knows how to run routes, gets in and out of breaks well, uses his body well to shield defenders from the pass. Average blocker, positions himself well. Should be a nice pass-catcher in the NFL but there aren't any tight ends who grade in the first round this year. At least there weren't before Stanford's pro day.

Jonathan Martin: Casserly believes Martin's a top-10 player who will get drafted in the 20s, the #3 tackle this year. Will be a good pass protector. He slides well and has quick hands. Would like to see him play with more intensity, and more consistency as a run-blocker.

David DeCastro: excellent movement skills, good pull-blocker, good trap-blocker. Picks his target while pull-blocking without hesitating and usually gets to the second level. Physical power run blocker and aggressive pass protector. Could go as high as 12 to Seattle.

Pro days:
North Carolina: Quinton Coples had a strong workout per UNC alumnus Brooks (Does anyone ever have a bad workout? Maybe Da'Quan Bowers last year). Brooks says Coples is more like Mario Williams than Julius Peppers (to whom he's usually compared). Fluid, nimble, explosive first step, excellent movement. Expects him to be a dominant, 8-10 sacks-per-season LDE. Questions continue to be his motor and consistency. Pro day left little doubt about his physical tools. Casserly says Robert Quinn was better coming out. Sees many flaws in Coples' play. Plays high, doesn't always play hard,  slow to shed blocks. Says Coples is that scary kind of player that coaches think they're going to motivate and coach up and get the best out of but never do. Like RamView, Casserly wouldn't take Coples with a top ten pick, even as it occurs to me that Casserly may only have six guys in his top ten.

Zach Brown also had, guess what, an impressive workout. Explosive athlete, timed at the 40 in the mid 4.4s. Looked good in drills. Brooks vaguely said "he still has some work to do" but should be drafted in the Mayock Zone.

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My laptop doesn't want to read my DVD of the 3/16 show, I may have to run it back through my burner and try again tomorrow.

Rams sign OLB Jo-Lonn Dunbar

Linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar has signed a two-year deal with the Rams. Still a young player at 26, Dunbar spent his first four seasons with the Saints after being signed as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Boston College in 2008.

Though considered undersized at 6'1" 233, Dunbar was arguably the Saints' best linebacker last season, registering 80 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, a sack and 6 passes defensed. Though likely to start here on the strongside, he can play all three LB positions and is also a mainstay on special teams. He's a quick, agile, high-energy player with excellent speed, strength and technique. He's a good run-stopper who's quick to the hole and is a punishing tackler. And he already knows the defensive system he'll be playing in here.

Scouts Inc. rates Dunbar an average starter. He can get pushed around, can have trouble getting good pass drops, and isn't considered an elite talent or difference-maker. He plays soft at times and isn't going to help a team a lot as a pass-rusher. Pro Football Focus rated Dunbar the worst Saints LB last season. There's also the question of how caught up he may be in the Saints' bounty scandal.

If he's free and clear of that, though, the Rams have made a good signing here. Dunbar should be an upgrade over any outside backer the Rams had last year and should fortify the run defense. And the Rams are getting a young player on the rise. Thumbs up.

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Rams sign linebacker, backup QB

The Rams have made what looks like a very solid defensive move today by signing linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar away from the Saints (Dunbar announced on Twitter). Dunbar's coming off a career season in New Orleans last year. One assumes he checks out clean in the bounty scandal?

The Rams have also re-signed backup quarterback Tom Brandstater.

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Path to the Draft, 3/15

Appearing: Paul Burmeister, Charles Davis, Michael Lombardi, Brian Baldinger, Matt Hayes (Sporting News)

* Team news:

Buffalo at 10: Dropping $50 million guaranteed on Mario Williams frees the Bills up to go after offensive line here. Riley Reiff appears to be their likeliest pick now. The main question about him is whether he'll be limited to right tackle.

Hayes says Buffalo should try to trade up now for Ryan Tannehill. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws too many interceptions, Tannehill would start there right away. Wow, didn't Buffalo  just spend megadollars extending Fitzpatrick?

Vikings at 3: Could be bluster, but just want to note that the Vikings seem more willing to trade down than I ever thought they'd be. They can't be expecting Matt Kalil to last past #6, can they?

Colts at 34: Nose tackle is on Indy's list after Andrew Luck because they're converting to a 3-4. They're also looking to draft wide receivers, and cornerbacks, where they had a ton of injuries last year.

Texans at 26: The loss of Mario Williams in free agency takes their first-round focus off of WRs and onto pass rushers like Nick Perry or Whitney Mercilus. The depth of this year's WR class should leave them a good player there later.

Jagwires at 7: If the Rams pass on Justin Blackmon, the Jags won't. They need pass rush help, too, but aren't sure if Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples are worth the #7 pick. They also need to strengthen their offensive line if they're seriously committed to running the ball. Reiff or a defensive player will be much likelier here than a reach for Michael Floyd.

* Player news:
More on Tannehill: Hayes has no concern about Tannehill having only 19 college starts, even though Mark Sanchez is on the verge of bombing with the Jets with about that many. Mike Sherman, according to Hayes, says Tannehill knows the game, has a high football IQ, and will be a ten-year player wherever he goes. Davis said Tannehill is a better athlete than Andy Dalton.

In his mock draft, Hayes called Trent Richardson the most NFL-ready player in the draft, projecting him to Cleveland at #4.

Justin Blackmon projected to the Rams at #6. Hayes called him a less dynamic but more durable version of Dez Bryant. Davis called Hakeem Nicks a fairer comparison; Blackmon should be a lot more dependable than Bryant.

Hayes slotted Dontari Poe to the Seahawks at #12, but isn't a fan. Only 30 tackles, 8 tackles for loss and one sack his senior year should be major red flags. Playing for one of the worst teams in the country, in one of the worst conferences, he should have dominated, if he was trying hard enough. He didn't make the most of the physical skills he showed off at the Combine. Davis wasn't sure where Seattle would play Poe if they did take him (probably right over center). Baldinger repeats criticism that Poe ends up on the ground too often. He also doesn't find the ball well, or make a lot happen on the field, even against teams like Arkansas-Pine Bluff that should be ripe for the picking. Also doesn't see Poe's athletic explosiveness on the field.

Lombardi counterargues that if you trust Poe's talent, toughness, commitment and his ability to learn a system, you take him. Brandon Graham got drafted ahead of Jason Pierre-Paul because he played better on tape. How's that pick working out? Lombardi mentioned several other defensive linemen, like Eric Swann, whose tape was no indicator at all that he'd play as well as he did on the field.

Personally, I loved Lombardi's argument because I'm sensing there's a lot of "tape snobs" out there this year. Regular folks like us have so much access to so much about players now, the "insiders" are all suddenly pounding on the supreme importance of game tape vs. it being one of several valuable evaluation tools.

However, I'd countercounterargue to Lombardi that if Poe's really a slacker on the field, I don't know why I'd expect him to work any harder with the playbook.

Still, Mike Mayock's #1 defensive tackle? Poe, followed by Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers, Jerel Worthy and Kendall Reyes.

Getting away from the Poe show, consensus on Melvin Ingram continues to be that he's a player teams will be able to move all over the place defensively. In fact, you'll have to, or he'll get worn down going against a tackle all the time. Lombardi believes his best position will be as a stand-up pass rusher out of an inside position in the 3-4. Let him use his size and speed against guards.

Davis closed with negative reports on LaMichael James. Added 15 lbs. in college to get to 195, but is just a straight-line runner who doesn't pack enough punch inside. Scouts say Jacquizz Rogers was a better prospect coming out, and he had little impact for the Falcons in 2011.

Looks like I might want to re-think where to go in the third round of my mock draft.

-$-

Path to the draft, 3/9

* Pro days.

Oklahoma State: Justin Blackmon came in at 6'1”, 215. He put eight pounds back on since the Combine. Ran the 40 twice, consensus was he was in the 4.48 – 4.51 range both times. 35” vertical. Wasn't as good in the shuttle or the three-cone, but bigger WRs aren't expected to do well there. Had two drops in drills. Mayock didn't see anything to downgrade Blackmon as either the top WR in the draft or a top ten pick. Strong, fast, physical, compares to Terrell Owens or Anquan Boldin, according to Bucky Brooks. Will win at the line of scrimmage with his strength vs. his speed. Should be an instant-impact player in the NFL. Also comes across favorably in interviews.

Brandon Weeden ran a 4.9 40 and looked more athletic than expected in the rest of the non-position drills. Made every throw he'd be expected to make in the pros. Showed he can really drive the ball downfield. Took almost all of his snaps from under center. Main concern, of course, is that he's 28.

Safety Markelle Martin did not work out due to a knee injury that also kept him out of the Combine. Will have to work out in another 3-4 weeks.

Georgia Tech. Huge crowd to see Stephen Hill. Didn't hurt his stock at all. Great feet for his 6'4” 215 size. Works hard. Mayock doesn't see him slipping out of the first round. P.S. If Hill is available at 33 and the Rams already have Blackmon, I'm still taking Hill.

Wisconsin. Russell Wilson had an average-at-best pro day. Mayock still endorses him as a mid- to late-round pick despite that, and his 5'11” height, because he's a winner.

* Team news.

Browns at 4. Cleveland needs playmakers, needs a face of the franchise. Absent the possibility of getting Robert Griffin III, Bucky Brooks sets up a scenario where they take Trent Richardson 4^th and a wide receiver (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright) 22^nd. Or a less likely scenario, Justin Blackmon 4^th and Lamar Miller or David Wilson 22^nd. First time I've heard either of those names anywhere close to that point of the draft. Heath Evans advises to take Blackmon at 4 and use that #22 to trade up for Ryan Tannehill. (The panel's primary advise was to trade up for Griffin. Have I mentioned I'm way behind on these recaps?)

Chiefs at 11. Need help at a number of positions. Tackle was biggest weakness (before they signed Eric Winston.) Need to get better on the right side, and they could lose Brendan Albert after this season.

Chargers at 18. They've been trying for a while to get a pass rusher but haven't been getting it right, so it's still a top need. They like Courtney Upshaw and Nick Perry.

Broncos at 25. They talked about Peyton Manning instead of the team's draft needs. Thanks. I think the prevailing wisdom is that they'll look to get Peyton weapons, i.e. receivers.

* Player news. Michael Lombardi's mock draft got the Rams-Redskins trade right before it ever happened, but he went pretty cuckoo after that. With Justin Blackmon going to Cleveland, he had Tampa taking Dontari Poe and the Rams taking....... Melvin Ingram. He dropped Morris Claiborne to #9, and Trent Richardson wasn't in the top ten. Lombardi claims Jeff Fisher loves offensive and defensive linemen and builds his teams around the lines. (We've certainly seen that borne out in free agency. The Rams have signed five linemen and a corner.) Ingram is a versatile player who will be effective on the edges and his speed will be a good match to the Rams' artificial turf. Heath Evans follows by saying he loves the idea of Ingram at #6, compares him to John Randle. Same active feet and hands, quick burst, tenacity, will to finish, though Ingram is well short of Randle weight-wise right now. Finishes every drill, does everything the right way. Lombardi also called Richardson as good a RB as he's seen in a long time and figures he will really be drafted in the top ten.

Orson Charles was arrested in Athens, Georgia for DUI charges. His pro day was average at best. Lotsa luck getting drafted before the third day now. Dummy.

Whitney Mercilus and Andre Branch are both liked by teams whether or not they run 3-4 or 4-3 schemes. Mercilus is thought to be big enough to hold up well at DE, but is also thought to be quick enough to account for himself well dropping back in coverage. Mayock projects Mercilus to be drafted in the 20s and Branch to go in the Mayock Zone.

The main criticism of Quinton Coples is that he takes plays off. He blames that perception on double-teams and triple-teams. He blames his senior year dropoff on switching from left side to right side. I didn't see that elite a player from Senior Bowl or Combine coverage. Bucky Brooks calls him a solid base DE but not an elite pass rusher. That's not the kind of player he is. Well, the elite pass rushers are supposed to be the DEs who go high in the draft, gang. RamView heartily does not endorse drafting Quinton Coples at #6. Expectations have been he'll go to Buffalo at 10, but that was before they signed Mario Williams.

Brooks sees Janoris Jenkins being drafted in the 15-22 range. Compared him favorably to Assante Samuel and says his Combine interviews improved his status with teams concerned about his off-field issues (marijuana, multiple children out of wedlock).

I missed the March 12-14 PTTD's while on vacation, and because somehow it benefits NFL Network to lie about when exactly they're going to air the program, so I'll jump to the 15th when I pick this back up.

-$-

Path to the Draft, 3/8

Did anybody notice that NFL Network has taken Sam Bradford out of the intro of Path to the Draft? Yet Mark Sanchez is still in there?

* Team news.

Vikings at 3: um, Matt Kalil? And though they need a corner badly, their radio announcer made a good argument for not trying to fix everything in one year and focus on building an offense around Christian Ponder.

Bears at 19: had their eyes on wideouts, but this was before they traded for Brandon Marshall. Peter Konz or Jonathan Martin appear to be on their radar now, their offensive line is still bad off. Also looking for a DE to complement Julius Peppers.

Lions at 23: biggest needs are defensive back and offensive line. Looking at Janoris Jenkins and bigger backs like Dre Kirkpatrick and Stephon Gilmore. Cordy Glenn has the size they like at o-line. Even with these needs, don't rule out a straight best player available pick like Nick Fairley last year.

Packers at 28: defense, defense, defense. They're coming off a season where they gave up the most passing yards in league history. They're blaming lack of pass rush and will look at pass-rushing OLBs like Nick Perry of USC.

Michael Lombardi correctly predicted Washington making the move up for Griffin, with the bonus prediction that the Browns will be interested in Ryan Tannehill. Nice work.

* Player news.

Show opened with a stupid, pointless, I could care less even when the Rams had the #2 pick overall, Luck vs. Griffin III debate. Next!

During the Vikings' preview, Bucky Brooks made a strong case for Morris Claiborne, who definitely figures into the Rams' picture at #6. Lockdown corner with great feet and great ball skills. Can press, play off, play zone. Will be a bonafide star in the league. Jamie Dukes calls him out – apparently “lockdown” corner is a step down from “shutdown” corner. Brooks thinks Claiborne will be perfect for a Tampa-2 system, I assume Tampa's Tampa-2 system at that. More technically sound than Patrick Peterson last year.

I won't run down Brooks' mock draft since it's from before the Rams-Redskins trade. The interesting moment was when he compared Justin Blackmon to Terrell Owens as a runner after the catch. (Despite that, he said at the end of the show that Michael Floyd will prove to be the best receiver in the class in a few years.) Also had Dontari Poe going to Carolina at #9, and Trent Richardson not in the top 10 at all.

Dukes says that people who criticize that Poe looks bad on tape need to account more for all the spread offenses he faced that don't give him a chance to shine at his position. He did acknowledge, though, that Poe does seem to take plays off and end up on the ground more than he should.

* Pro days.

Clemson: Andre Branch looked good enough in 3-4 linebacker drills to be considered scheme-diverse. He's ideally a 4-3 RDE but 3-4 teams will be comfortable with his ability to drop into coverage. Mike Mayock projects him for the Mayock Zone. Brandon Thompson got gassed by the end of his defensive line workout but ran a 5.16 40 with a 1.77 10-yard split that should confirm his second-round status. Dwayne Allen, very questionably, did not run a 40, standing on his awful Combine 4.9. Looks quicker than that, though, and ran good routes and caught the ball well. Shouldn't be relied on for blocking. Didn't hurt or help his second-round grade. Dings on Coty Sensabaugh are that he started just one year and is light at 189, but the corner looks like a 3rd-4^th round pick to Mayock. Rennie Moore is an undersized, one-gap DT, but he gets upfield very well, and ran a 4.94 today. As quick as Dwayne Allen, in other words.

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Path to the Draft, 3/7

Yeah, I know, nothing like three-week-old draft dish. Well, as far behind as I am, I've gotta start somewhere...

* Player news.

Mike Mayock's top five outside linebackers:

Melvin Ingram, Whitney Mercilus, Andre Branch, Ronnell Lewis, Shea McClellin.

Mayock believes any or all of them could be converted to 3-4 OLB. Mayock believes Ingram will be all right in coverage from watching him on tape. Teams could be concerned about his short arms. Mayock believes Ingram is a player defensive coordinators are going to want to move around a lot.

Top five ILBs:

Luke Kuechly, Dont'a Hightower, Mychal Kendricks, Keenan Robinson, Sean Spence.

Kuechly is intelligent, packs a wallop, can find the football and cover the whole field. Moves well between the tackles, can cover sideline to sideline, moves well in coverage. Charles Davis compares him to Jerrod Mayo, actually says he'll be better.

Bad year to need a safety. Several teams franchised safeties because the draft class is so weak. (Good thing the Rams are fairly set here.)

* Pro days.

Alabama (first pro day): Dre Kirkpatrick and Dont'a Hightower worked out. Mike Mayock says Hightower looked like an “ascending first-round pick.” Looked great in position drills for his size. Great feet and fluid movement. Can rush the passer or drop into coverage. When asked if he's a three-down linebacker, Hightower replied, “I'm a four-down linebacker, I can play special teams, too.” Davis, who showered praise on Luke Kuechly earlier in the show, called Hightower a bigger version.

Kirkpatrick had a good workout. Didn't run again even though he ran 4.51 at Combine. Press-coverage teams will like him for his “length.” RamView would like to remind everyone that a person doesn't have “length” unless they are lying down. Doesn't appear to have played a lot of man coverage, but that's not likely to hurt him. Good chance he goes in top 15, according to Casserly and Davis.

De'Quan Menzie improved his 4.74 Combine 40 time by at least a tenth of a second. Known for loving slow safeties with poor skills, Mayock projects him as a late-round “steal.”

Mayock still having difficulty using a top ten pick on any running back. Trent Richardson is a top ten talent, but Mayock says he won't go there. Speculates that he'll be around in the teens. WRONG

Mark Barron very physical, used more like a linebacker at 'Bama. Compared to Eric Berry or Earl Thomas, has less range and man-to-man cover ability. Excellent (top 20) prospect nonetheless. Will not work out until later in the month.

* USC

Outstanding workout for Matt Kalil, showed excellent all-around athleticism. Looked great in run-blocking drills, got out quickly as a lead blocker, gets to the second level well. Continues to affirm his status as draft's top left tackle and a top-five overall prospect. Got the day off after about twenty minutes of position drills, so teams are obviously satisfied with what they see out of him. Charlie Casserly considers Kalil more of a top-ten prospect than a top-five, but a safe pick he fully expects to go at #3. Rates him somewhere between Joe Thomas and Trent Richardson in recent drafts.

Nick Perry, seen by most teams as a 4-3 DE, did linebacker drills as well. Bucky Brooks questioned his ability to change direction and play in space, especially if teams are looking at him as a 3-4 OLB. Has a great motor and should be a productive pass-rusher as a 4-3 DE, though. NFL Network analysts rank him in the Mayock Zone, that area at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round where every draft analyst seems to believe a hundred players are going to be drafted.

* Illinois

Whitney Mercilus had an excellent pro day by all accounts. Athletic and “long”, (did Mayock get hold of a lot of tape of Jay Bilas in the offseason?) similar to Andre Branch, should be drafted in the Mayock Zone. Excellent movement skills could move him up in the draft, concerns he only produced one year in college could move him down.

* Clemson (preview): Clemson's pro day will be major for Dwayne Allen because you can't be a finesse tight end and run a 4.9 like he did at the Combine. Has to have an excellent pro day. Also critical for Andre Branch, who's going to have to show he can do the outside linebacker skills to go along with his natural pass-rush skills. Coty Sensabaugh has intrigued scouts because of his good 40 time at the Combine. Mike Mayock is eager to see how well he moves at his pro day. (I can already tell you it'll be good from watching him during Combine coverage.)

Paul Burmeister ends the show by referring to Iowa WR "Marvin McNuts". McNuts will be considered a solid midround-candidate by teams hoping to increase jersey sales to 11-year-olds.

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