Draft buzz, week 1

Mock drafts are so all over the place this year, I’m now pretty sure the first pick overall is going to be a guy from VCU and the second pick is going to be from Butler. Don’t watch NFL Network if you’re looking for any mock draft clarity. Cam Newton is going 1st, 3rd, 5th, or not in the top 10. Blaine Gabbert is going 1st, 3rd, 5th, or 7th. DaQuan Bowers is going 1st, 3rd, 6th or not in the top 10. Yeah, lotsa luck figuring who’s going to be around when the Rams pick at 14.

In a project I was SUPPOSED to start three weeks ago, I’m going to try to boil a week’s worth of draft scoop, especially related to the Rams, into one item, and do so weekly up until the draft. So as usual, I’ve got a lot of catching up to do. Here’s week 1…

* Workout visits. I’ve only seen two players mentioned at this point that are going to visit Rams Park for workouts: Baylor offensive lineman Danny Watkins and Temple safety Jaiquawn Jarrett. Experts are fairly high on Watkins even though he’s already 26 years old. He’s occasionally projected at the end of the first round. He was Baylor’s left tackle last year but has played all over the line. He’s projected as a guard in the pros, and played well there Senior Bowl week. Jarrett’s ranked as more of a late-round pick at this point. If Pro Football Weekly would care to send me my annual draft guide sometime BEFORE THIS YEAR’S DRAFT ACTUALLY HAPPENS, I’d have been happy to add a nugget or two.

* Wide receiver market. Most mock drafts are now pushing Julio Jones into the top ten, though some still have him around at 14. Jones is an intriguing prospect. Obviously his explosive Combine numbers propelled him to the top of the draft, but how much of that is “workout wonder”? Critics assert he wasn’t a feared deep threat. His workout explosiveness isn’t evident on the field. He plays slower than he runs and it’s certainly fair to question the consistency of his hands. As for his broken foot, should that make his Combine performance all the more amazing, or should it be another of the durability concerns surrounding Jones? Sure, the Rams can’t afford to pass up a stud receiver, but they can’t afford to pick up yet another injured receiver, either. Despite Mike Mayock name-dropping Larry Fitzgerald and predicting Jones will be an immediate star in the league, the jury is still comparing notes on the Alabama WR, I think.

Where do the Rams turn if they don’t draft Jones, and A.J. Green doesn’t take a shocking fall? Leonard Hankerson of Miami was the best WR at the Senior Bowl, and he ran in the 4.4s at the Combine, but reports from Jim Thomas say the Rams aren’t that big on the big Hurricane wideout. He did drop some balls at the Combine, and that’s thought to be his fatal flaw. He’ll lose concentration on you and drop balls that are right in his hands.

Jernell Jernigan (Troy) has been getting more and more favorable reviews, but there are questions about his knee, and he’s basically Danny Amendola with possibly more elusiveness. The Rams would seem to have plenty of this receiver already (Amendola, Donnie Avery, Mark Clayton, Mardy Gilyard), and that goes likewise for Jeremy Kerley (TCU) and Greg Salas (Hawaii). I don’t doubt these rookies can play in the pros; I’d just have a hard time getting the point of the Rams in particular picking any of them up.

Greg Little (North Carolina) impressed me at first look at the Combine. Then you find out he’s a converted 231-pound RB who was suspended this season. (Did North Carolina actually field a team this year, or did they just suspend the whole roster?) I don’t know how that adds up to a player that can help a WR-deficient team like the Rams very quickly.

I’m getting worried about getting to like so many Nebraska players. But Niles Paul’s a wideout who’ll win physical battles and beat double teams, a prototype West Coast receiver who can also return kicks. Looked like he could get the job done deep at the Senior Bowl, too. I’ll keep Austin Pettis on the watch list, too. Tough player, great hands, “quicker than fast”, will give you favorable size mismatches out of the slot. I won’t, however, worry about developmental players such as Ricardo Lockette. Again, drafted WRs need to help this team quickly, MARDY GILYARD.

* Defensive line. Let’s start with the one player the Rams aren’t going to draft: J.J. Watt, who appears to have an agent working at NFL Network. A day doesn’t go by where somebody doesn’t say what a fantastic athlete he is and how he’s climbing draft boards. And true, a 290-lb man who can move as quickly as much smaller players has definite pro appeal. But not in St. Louis. You’ll hear Mayock claim Watt’s a multi-position player, but he’s been mostly a 3-4 DE. Great for Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but I don’t see how that skillset fits into a Spagnuolo scheme unless they do something goofy like convert him to a 4-3 DT. And we saw how well that worked with Adam Carriker. Until I EVER get my PFW Draft Guide, I’m concerned about the Carriker factor with Cameron Jordan of Cal, too, even though he’s had a fantastic run-up to the draft. Should be a great NFL player, but I doubt it would happen here.

Ryan Kerrigan, however, is a 4-3 DE, and he’s typically ranked to be selected in the late teens / early 20s. He stood on his Combine times at Purdue’s pro day. Mayock describes him as an “animal” with a “great motor”. Guess which race Ryan is, and brace yourself for future comparisons to Chris Long, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Grant Wistrom and Justin Smith.

DaQuan Bowers’ knee, and rumors that he told teams he’d be able to work out at the Combine and then couldn’t there or at pro day, have his stock dropping to the point that he’s got to be on the fringe of the Rams’ first-round radar. He was flagged by at least one physician at the Combine, and the knee issue is now opening up critics to question if he isn’t a one-year wonder, his senior year being by far his most productive.

At the top of the draft, Marcus Dareus appears to have the edge over Nick Fairley as top-ranked DT, and he’s more than likely going in the top 2. Excellent workout, excellent footwork, can play in 3- or 4-man front. Fairley looked Ndamukong Suh-like in the 2011 “national championship” but should go later in the top 10. Limited to 4-3, plays too high at times, needs to improve consistency/effort.

* Back seven. Rams need lots of help here but aren’t getting much. It looks like players like Houston and Ayers are going to be gone by the time their 2nd-round pick comes up. Bruce Carter has I’d say a yellow flag for a knee issue. I’ve had the hunch that Billy Devaney’s super sleeper defensive back pick for the 2nd round is Ras-I Dowling (Virginia). But he missed half this past season due to an ankle injury, then pulled a hamstring running the 40 at the Combine (though I’d admit it was a good 40). Michigan State LB Greg Jones looked good at Senior Bowl workouts, but questions arise about his size, hitting and foot speed. Oh, is that all? Mike Mayock gave Marcus Gilchrest a thumbs up after Clemson’s pro day but DeAndre McDaniel a thumbs down. He thinks Gilchrest should play safety in the pros, not corner, but likes his good instincts and ability to cover man-to-man on the inside. McDaniel’s a converted LB who didn’t look good in drills and is going to be difficult to trust on the back end.

* RB. And the Mark Ingram quandary begins. He’ll no doubt be on the board when the Rams pick. He gets compared constantly to Emmitt Smith. Mayock insists he’ll be a 3-down back when he had only 14 carries a game at Alabama this past year. Quick burst, great after contact, won’t run away from anybody. Huh, sounds familiar. Do the Rams take him? Do you pass up Mark Ingram to take an Aldon Smith or a Corey Liuget? Like I said, a quandary, for me, at least.

Ingram’s about the only RB NFL Network has focused much on. Mayock called Delone Carter, Anthony Allen, Alex Green and Darren Evans good values for big RBs, and Jordan Todman, Derrick Locke, Graig Cooper and Jacquizz Rogers good values for small RBs. I just wish he’d quit raving about Alex Green’s great hands; I think he fumbled everything he touched at the Shrine Game. And Locke may have a red flag for a previous spinal injury. There’s also Jamie Harper of Clemson, who ran in the 4.4s at 233 pounds at Clemson’s pro day on the 10th.

The super sleeper, and an interesting one, is Taiwan Jones of East Washington, who’s expected to run Chris Johnson-like times at his pro day.

* Offensive line. The Rams are looking for just depth and possibly guards, but the fun imbroglio so far has been Brian Baldinger and Mike Mayock fighting over Anthony Costanzo. Baldinger really hates Costanzo for some reason, already calling him out twice on NFL Network. Says he won’t be strong enough to handle power rushers. Had an awful Senior Bowl. Has poor feet and struggles with speed, gets overextended. Mayock, a Boston College grad like Costanzo, on the other hand has him the #11 player this year and a player who’ll start at LT for ten years. (Disclosure: I have Costanzo as the #1 lineman, thought he especially stood out at the Combine, and I’m probably projecting him #9 to Dallas if I ever do a mock draft.) Baldinger appears to hate Costanzo, and apparently Mayock, enough to flat-out accuse Mayock of blind homerism on national TV. Say what you will about either Baldinger or Mayock, but at least “Path To The Draft” finally did something interesting enough to get me to do a double-take.

My theory is that Baldinger is actually Gabe Carimi’s agent. While most of the NFL-N analysts are calling Carimi a solid RT, he’s got him going in the top 10 overall as a LT. Note, from Dan Pompei, that Carimi has knee problems that will likely require him to wear a brace in the pros.

* Tight ends. If the Rams are doing any looking at the TE position, they probably ought to look north, where Wisconsin churns out a pro TE just about every year. Lance Kendricks had an excellent pro day in Madison and won’t last past day two. D.J. Williams had a good Combine and pro day at Arkansas. Nice route runner with really good hands, but I’d be shocked if he’s the kind of TE the Rams are looking for, given that he’s about the smallest guy at the position in this year’s draft. Kyle Rudolph’s supposed to be able to participate in Notre Dame’s April 7 pro day after having missed all or most of this past season, and the Combine, due to a hamstring injury.

* QB. Yes, I know the Rams don’t need a QB. But the position has a broad effect on how the draft will go, so it should get at least a quick rundown. Basically, Blaine Gabbert’s emerging as the top guy, though good luck guessing who’s going to take him. And he’s not considered as pro-ready as recent #1 QBs Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford were. Cam Newton’s probably 2nd, even though you have guys like Charlie Casserly saying he’s not even fit to be drafted IN THE FIRST ROUND. His pro day was at least a lot better than his Combine, though his footwork still clearly needs to improve. I’d have to rank Ryan Mallett 3rd. He can’t run, but he can wing it. Experts are unafraid to call him a top 10 talent, the most pro-ready QB this year or a QB like Drew Bledsoe. His biggest issues: off-field drug rumors and poor decision-making under pressure. Hey, you never know, a desperate enough team could want to trade up to #14 for him. Jake Locker’s probably also going in the 1st, though for once in my life, I agree with Michael Lombardi on a couple of things: Jake Locker’s not a first-round QB, and I’d take Christian Ponder ahead of him.

* Around the league. NFL Network previewed draft needs for the Packers, Jets and Bears at the bottom of round one, inexplicably leaving off the Steelers.

Green Bay beat writer Pete Dougherty puts them after an OLB if the value’s there. And since he named Justin Houston as a candidate, I’d say it is. They’ll go after a tackle first if the position isn’t too picked over, or a big WR like Jonathan Baldwin. Whatever position they draft, they’re looking for size and speed over need to a large extent.

Playing the role of Pittsburgh’s correspondent, I will note that most analysts have them looking for offensive line depth, guard in particular. If Watkins is still on the board at #31, I’d expect the Steelers to take him if they think he can start right away. He’d be perfect for them, or they could try to re-unite the Pouncey brothers.

Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News picked UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers for what he expects to be a heavily defensive draft for Rex Ryan. Ayers is supposed to be Ryan’s kind of player in that he can be used many different ways, and is a natural edge rusher, but at the same time, there are questions whether or not he can handle a complicated defensive scheme. And his 40 time at the Combine was rotten. Santonio Holmes is the Jets’ #1 re-signing priority, and it sounds like Antonio Cromartie is #2, which could have Braylon Edwards moving up Rams Nation’s free agency radar once there ever is free agency.

Speaking of free agency, da Bears cut Tommie Harris, and I’m not sure right now why the Rams wouldn’t be interested in him. It certainly sounds like a better move than Mel Kiper’s idea of drafting Corey Liuget. We’ll see. Sun-Times correspondent Neal Hayes definitely has the Bears looking for an offensive lineman at #29, preferably a mauler.

* Various nonsense. When rating his top 32 prospects regardless of position/need, Mayock has Cam Newton 21st and JAKE LOCKER 20th. Crissakes, put away the torch, Mayock. Marcus Dareus was his #1 player overall, followed by Von Miller.

I’ve said before the longer you watch these shows, you realize that Mayock thinks about 200 guys are going in the first two rounds. On the other hand, I think Michael Lombardi thinks about 12 guys are getting picked in the first round. Hell, he was trying to push Mark Ingram off as a second-rounder. I’m just guessing Lombardi traded away a lot of picks as a former GM.

Finally, congratulations to James Laurinaitis’ dad John for making the WWE Hall of Fame. The Road Warriors will be inducted this weekend.

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The hole at free safety

Time for an overdue post mortem of the deal that OJ Atogwe got from the Redskins: he got a 5-year, $26 million contract. He gets about $1 million in salary in 2011 and a $7 million roster bonus. He averages around $4.5 million in salary and bonuses for the remaining four years, at least some of which he's never likely to see, as he'll be 35 by the end of the deal.

As Jim Thomas pointed out, the $8 million Atogwe will get from Washington in 2011 is the same amount as the roster bonus he was due from the Rams in February that led them to cut him in the first place. The Rams didn't get scooped, or outbargained here, nor did they screw up. They were never going to offer Atogwe as much as Washington did. So, strictly in terms of losing the 30-year-old Atogwe, I won't accuse the Rams front office of making a blunder. Atogwe wanted to be somewhere he'd make more money, have more job security and be a better fit in the defense. It's a free country, and RamView wishes him all the best in 15 of next year's games, while noting he's moved to a worse team, with a worse, overrated, defensive coordinator. : )

But even if they didn't blunder in failing to keep Atogwe, the Rams still may blunder the situation if they don't have an adequate replacement. Which gives reason for pause, because in an interview earlier this week, Steve Spagnuolo expressed the thought that JAMES BUTLER could still do the job. Forget his dismal, injury-filled 2010; Butler was awful when he was healthy the year before! Chrissakes, why not just bring back Jason Sehorn?

Hopefully Billy Devaney will weigh in better. Darian Stewart played well in flashes in 2010, but with Craig Dahl already in the backfield, the Rams' safety corps is quite weak in pass coverage already, and that's before you consider Dahl's injury-riddled career and Stewart's rawness.

Whether it's converting a Jerome Murphy to safety, adding a veteran free agent or finding a steal in a draft that't not really strong at the position, the 2011 Rams are going to need a real infusion of talent at safety, or the end result of the Atogwe deal will be lots of long opposition TD passes, each one a painful shot in the foot from the Rams' own gun.

Kick. It. Deep!

The Rams special teams will have less excuse than ever for giving up big plays on kickoffs, with the NFL passing a rule earlier this week that moves the spot for kickoffs back up to the 35-yard line. The time-honored strategy that almost no NFL team follows - Kick It Deep! - now becomes by far the best way to play defense on kickoffs. Very few NFL teams don't have a kicker with enough leg to put every kickoff into the back of the end zone from the 35. Rams kicker Josh Brown certainly can.

The rule was passed with an eye toward improving player safety, but probably does so at the expense of an epidemic of touchbacks. The kicking team all have to line up within 5 yards of the ball before it is kicked, which is supposed to be a concession to the disadvantage the returning team gets from the rule, but I don't see those guys taking that much longer to get up to full speed. Could be something to keep an eye on. And it will certainly matter little with guys like David Buehler and Sebastian Janikowski plowing every kickoff into the stands anyway.

Even a little rule change like this will likely affect the way many teams structure their rosters. Older kickers weak on kickoffs but accurate on FGs just gained 5 yards on all their kickoffs and gain value vs. kickers whose best trait is booming kickoffs out of the end zone. I just mentioned Buehler, but he's been such an adventure on FGs, with the new rule, Dallas might be better off with, I don't know, Morten Andersen or someone. And the few teams that keep kickoff specialists on their rosters certainly don't need to any more, and will replace those guys with real players.

And punt returners just got a lot more valuable than kickoff returners, the latter of whom may be expected to watch balls sail over their heads much of next season. The Rams have struggled ever since Tony Horne left to find a decent kickoff returner. Now, with the new rule and a league full of deep kickers, they don't really need one. A ton of possessions are going to start at the 20 from now on.

Josh Brown's job won't be affected by the new rule, but in St. Louis, one person whose job should be a lot easier is Tom McMahon, the Rams' special teams coach. There's more reason than ever to keep special teams strategy simple, very simple, indeed.

Kick it deep!

Add "free safety" to the Rams' needs list

O.J. Atogwe just signed a 5-year deal with the Redskins.

The Rams head into the impending player lockout clear losers in free agency. The defense just took a significant hit.

Will be very interested to hear what the terms of Atogwe's contract are. Could be very possible Dan Snyder's paying silly money to another player. Going to have to know more to figure out how badly or not the Rams screwed this up.

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Reading the Rams' RFA tenders

Before the current labor agreement expires tonight, NFL teams have been franchising unrestricted free agents and tendering restricted free agents as if the same rules as last year's apply. The Rams didn't franchise any player but have tendered a few as RFAs.

Daniel Fells, Gary Gibson and Renardo Foster were tendered at the right of first refusal level. The Rams would have the right to match any outside offer. None of the three were drafted, so there is no draft pick compensation due to the Rams if they do not match. Fells and Gibson would normally be scheduled to be UFAs, but going by last year's rules, they get caught in the same situation Oshiomogho Atogwe got caught in last year. RamView's ambivalent about Fells, but these look like wise moves on the surface.

Chris Chamberlain (7th), John Greco (3rd), Justin King (4th), Laurent Robinson (3rd) and David Vobora (7th) were tendered at the right of original draft position level. The Rams can match any outside offer and are due draft pick compensation if they don't. The first two moves are good, and I kind of guessed they'd make the King move. Chamberlain's really come on. It looks like they believe Greco's earned a shot, though I have no idea why he didn't get said shot down the stretch last season. The Vobora move's fine; they need to have enough bodies at LB.

That leaves Robinson, whose tendering I take as a sign partially that the Rams still like him, and partially that they don't think the draft will provide enough help at wide receiver. Otherwise, why bother with a receiver who has poor hands and can't get open? He did become the best-blocking receiver on the team last year, and there's value in that, but the most sense this move makes to me is if they think he's still going to bounce back from his broken leg in 2009. He looked good until then; I guess we'll see.

C.J. Ah You, Danny Amendola, and Larry Grant were tendered as exclusive rights free agents. Marquis Johnson would have had that status but was previously signed.

Quincy Butler, Kenneth Darby and Chris Johnson were NOT tendered at all. Darby's the name to key on here. They could have tendered him with 7th-round compensation, and they could always turn around and re-sign him, but I'm inclined to think they're not too concerned about losing him to another team. Maybe the Rams are FINALLY serious about pairing Steven Jackson with a decent change-of-pace back.

I'm not sure if Cliff Ryan wasn't eligible for a RFA tag, or the Rams just declined that option. He and Robinson were both drafted in 2007. In any event, it looks like his instinct that he wouldn't be back with the team was right.

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