Saturday, April 30, 2011

Rams' fifth-round pick (#158 overall): Jermale Hines, SS/OLB, Ohio State

Jermale Hines 6'1" 219
SS-OLB, Ohio State

Rankings:
Pro Football Weekly: Not ranked in top 150 players. #9 strong safety, ranked behind four also available. Grade: 5.23, has a better-than-average chance to make an NFL roster.
NFLDraftScout.com: #174 player overall, #6 strong safety. Fifth- to sixth-round grade.
DraftCountdown.com: Not ranked in top 254 players. #21 safety. Late round-free agent grade.

Biography/Honors:
2010: First-team all-Big Ten or 11 or 12. Started 12 of 13 games at free safety. 66 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 1 INT, 2 tackles for loss, 1/2-sack.

2009: Started 11 of 13 games. 57 tackles, 1 pass breakup, 2 INTs, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack. Returned an INT for a 32-yard TD.

2008: 6 starts in 11 games, two at free safety, four as part of a three-safety formation. 31 tackles, 3 pass breakups and 2 tackles for loss. Returned a fumble for a 48-yard TD.

2007: Limited action in 7 games, missing 4 waiting for eligibility clearance from the NCAA. 3 tackles.

Uncle Joseph played on Penn State's 1983 national championship team.

Academics: Majored in African-American studies.

Injuries:

2009: Did not start two games due to a hyperextended right elbow and played with the injury the second half of the season.

2008: Missed two games due to hamstring injury.

NFL Combine Stats:
4.68 40-yard dash (barely beats Robert Quinn!)
31.0 vertical
(DNP) broad jump
6.90 3-cone drill
4.30 20-yard shuttle
19 bench press reps at 225 lbs
Wonderlic score (unconfirmed): 17


Positives
Is like having an extra coach on the field. Lays out receivers over the middle but also wraps up well. Long arms and good closing speed let him break up passes from behind without interfering. Agile and fast enough to stay with receivers on out routes. Forces fumbles with powerful hits and strong hands. Good hand-eye coordination and mental toughness. Prototypical strong safety build, with room to add bulk to his frame. Good movement skills. Reacts well to the run. Sheds blocks well with his quickmess and hands. Plays fast moving forward and is effective near the line. Very strong attacking run defense and coverage plays in front of him. Could develop into an outside linebacker.

Negatives
Has been charged for driving without a license three times. A bit overweight. Below-average timed speed with average suddenness. Inconsistent and does not make enough impact plays. Limited cover skills and range. Cannot stick with receivers outside a short area and will be outquicked by small receivers in close. Runs around blocks too often. Loses discipline at times and will get caught overplaying misdirection. Fish out of water on the deep side. Does not have coverage or ball skills teams hope for.

Compares to: Darnell Bing.

Fun Facts:
Jermale Hines' high school coach, at Glenville High in east Cleveland, was Ted Ginn, Sr. He calls Ted Ginn, Jr. one of his athletic heroes. Should probably shoot higher there. GHS's teams are known as the "Tarblooders". Jermale is already a star player. That's because Ohio State calls its fifth defensive back position the "star".

RamView:
The Rams have had pretty good success with a tweener in Chris Chamberlain, which earns them a little benefit of the doubt with Hines. The Buckeye hitter and defensive leader may have been drafted just for his special teams ability. Will have a way to go as an NFL safety, and doesn't seem to fill the Rams' need at FS, but he's not without tools to work with, as they say. Thumbs to the side.

Sources: Pro Football Weekly, NFLDraftScout.com, DraftCountdown.com (Scott Wright), Ohio State Athletics, OhioStatevsMichiganFootball.com, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Wikipedia

Rams' fourth-round pick (#112 overall): Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii

Greg Salas 6'1" 210
WR, Hawaii

Biography/Honors:
2010: Led nation in receiving yards. 119 receptions for 1,889 yards (15.9 ypc) and 14 TDs. First-team all-WAC. Third-team All-America. Biletnikoff Award semifinalist. Led WAC (again) in receptions and set school records for receptions and yards. School career receiving yardage leader, too. 214-yard, 2-TD bowl game performance against Tulsa. TEN 100-yard games, 6 over 150, 3 over 190. Team captain and three-year starter.

2009: Third in the nation in receiving yards. First-team all-WAC. 106 receptions for 1,590 yards (15.0 ypc) and 8 TDs. Led WAC in receptions. 11.4 yard average on 5 punt returns. 16-catch, 196-yard game against New Mexico State. Six 100-yard games; three of them over 180.

2008: Started all 14 games. 57 receptions for 831 yards (14.6 ypc) and 3 TDs.

2007: Played in 8 games, 3 catches for 35 yards (11.7 ypc) and a TD.


Academics: Majored in sociology.

Rankings:
Pro Football Weekly: #99 player overall, #15 wide receiver. 3rd-highest-ranked left. Grade: 5.38, better-than-average chance to make an NFL roster. Fourth- to fifth-round pick.

NFLDraftScout.com: #103 player overall, #10 wide receiver. Third- to fourth-round grade.

DraftCountdown.com: #81 player overall, #11 wide receiver. "Mid-rounder" grade.

Not in Rick Gosselin's top 100.

Injuries:

2009: Did not start one game due to a sprained right ankle.

NFL Combine Stats:
4.56 40-yard dash
37.0 vertical
10'0" broad jump
6.65 3-cone drill (top ten time for wide receivers)
4.10 20-yard shuttle (top ten time for wide receivers)
15 bench press reps at 225 lbs
Wonderlic score (unconfirmed): 21


Positives
Outstanding production. Played in a prolific spread passing attack. Made a killing running speed outs, underneath routes and seam routes. Savvy zone beater. Thickly built with good size. Tall with long arms. Confident hands catcher who attacks the ball in the air. Reacts and adjusts to throws well. Looks ball into his hands. Good balance and body control to catch balls outside his frame or passes into a crowd. Catches well one-handed. Catches in stride and gets upfield quickly. Strong and nimble-footed after the catch. Has a nice second gear, sees the whole field and uses his blocks well. Willing to stick his nose in there and block. Smart, tough, durable, loves the game. June Jones product.

Negatives
Just ordinary speed and can't separate vertically. Played only from the slot. Struggles to separate from press coverage, which he didn't face a lot of. Not explosive off the line or quick to accelerate. Has to tidy up his footwork because he telegraphs his routes. Hawaii's system used a limited route tree. Pro system won't let him improvise as much as he did in college.

Compares to: PFW modestly says Jason Avant. I see a bigger version of Wes Welker; I feel Josh McDaniels will use him similarly. Successful with a lot of the routes Welker's successful with out of the slot, but has added size.

Fun Facts:
Greg's father Mark is a lifelong Rams fan, but isn't the Mark Salas who came up as a catcher with the Cardinals in the 80s. (That Mark is the White Sox bullpen coach.) Greg models his play after Charles Woodson.

RamView:
The Rams had the weakest receiving corps in the league last year, and are upgrading it with gusto this weekend. They're adding size, they're adding good hands, they're adding red zone weapons. What better way to beef up your passing game than by adding a tall receiver with about a million catches? Plus, it looks like he killed at a lot of the routes Wes Welker ran well for the Patriots for Josh McDaniels! I love this pick. Thumbs way up.


Sources: Pro Football Weekly, NFLDraftScout.com, DraftCountdown.com (Scott Wright), University of Hawaii Athletics, Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Friday, April 29, 2011

Rams' third-round pick (#78 overall): Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State

Austin Pettis 6'2.5" 209
WR, Boise State

Biography/Honors:
2010: Holds school record for career receiving TDs (39) and receptions (229). 11 starts in 13 games at flanker. 71 receptions for 951 yards (13.4 ypc) and 10 TDs. Also threw two TD passes.

2009: Started all 13 games at flanker. 63 receptions for 855 yards (13.6 ypc) and a school-record 14 TDs.

2008: Two starts in 13 games played. 49 receptions for 567 yards (11.6 ypc) and 9 TDs.

2007: 7 starts in 13 games at flanker as true freshman. 46 receptions for 465 yards (10.1 ypc) and 6 TDs.

Good hands clearly run in the family; uncle is former major leaguer and Gold Glove outfielder Gary Pettis.


Academics: Majored in communications.

Rankings:
Pro Football Weekly: #76 player overall, #13 wide receiver, #6 available WR. Grade: 5.42, has a good chance to become a quality NFL player and contribute readily. Third- to fourth-round pick.

NFLDraftScout.com: #155 player overall, #16 wide receiver. Fifth-round grade.

Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News): Not in top 100, which listed at least 9 WRs.

DraftCountdown.com: #112 player overall, #15 wide receiver. "Mid-round" grade.


Injuries:

2009: Missed final game of season due to broken ankle and was limited in Boise State's bowl game.

NFL Combine Stats:
4.61 40-yard dash
35.0 vertical
10'0" broad jump
6.68 3-cone drill
3.88 20-yard shuttle (best by a WR)
14 bench press reps at 225 lbs
Wonderlic score (unconfirmed): 22
Shuttle time was the fastest at the Combine in recent years.


Positives
Reliable big possession receiver and red-zone weapon. Very good size. Big, strong hands, among the best in this year's class. Plays faster than his timed speed. Superb ball skills; has huge catching radius and catches balls outside his frame with ease. Attacks the ball. Tracks the ball well and will go all-out to make the catch. Has timing, great concentration and body control to consistently win in traffic. Shields the ball from defenders with his body. Deft route-runner who knows how to set up defenders and create separation. Good body control and balance. Good head-fake. Looked like one of the better route-runners at the Senior Bowl. Knows how to find the soft spots in zone coverage. Has strength to break tackles after the catch. Willing, long-armed blocker. Tough, confident, vocal leader.

Negatives
Slow timed speed. Slow acceleration. No second gear or burst in and out of his cuts. Not a threat to stretch the field. Gets caught from behind. Little suddenness or explosion. Can be jammed at the line and isn't strong or quick enough to beat it. Drifts in his routes. Just average after the catch and could be more physical as a blocker.

Compares to: Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly casts Pettis in the same mold as Marques Colston of the Saints.

Fun Facts:
Austin's uncle, Gary, was a major-league centerfielder who won five Gold Gloves, with the Angels, Tigers and Rangers. And he's not the only of Austin's uncles to appear on a baseball card. In 1985, the picture on the front of Gary's card was actually that of his younger brother, Stacey, who Topps' photographer mistook for Gary.

RamView:
For a team that has struggled in the end zone FOREVER, what could be better than a deadly red-zone weapon like Austin Pettis? None of the Ram receivers have shown they can be that guy that Sam Bradford can just put one up for down close. It's frequently said the Rams need to add a TD a game. Pettis caught nearly a TD a game in college! He and Bradford should probably start practicing fade routes right now. A pretty good fit, and a pretty more-polished WR than a lot of the others left at the time. Thumbs up.


Sources: Pro Football Weekly, NFLDraftScout.com, DraftCountdown.com (Scott Wright), ESPN, Wikipedia, Idaho Statesman, baseball-reference.com

Rams' second-round pick (#47 overall): Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin


Lance Kendricks 6'3" 243
TE, Wisconsin

Biography/Honors:
2010: First team All-American. First team All-Big Ten or 11 or 12. Team captain. Full-time starter with 11 official starts in 13 games. 43 receptions for 665 yards (15.4 ypc) and 3 TD. Led team in receiving.

2009: Started 9 of 13 games. 29 receptions for 356 yards (12.3 ypc) and 3 TDs. Also had 7 rushes for 102 yards (14.6 ypc).

2008: Six receptions for 141 yards (23.5 ypc) and no TDs in seven games. Was behind two tight ends currently in the NFL on the depth chart.


Academics: Majored in economics. Has already graduated and is working on a second degree.

Rankings:
Pro Football Weekly: #29 player overall, #2 tight end. Grade: 5.95, has a good chance to become a quality NFL player and contribute readily. Top-50 pick.

NFLDraftScout.com: #82 player overall, #2 tight end. Third-round grade.

Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News): #53 player overall, #2 tight end.

DraftCountdown.com: #59 player overall, #2 tight end. Second- to third-round grade.


Injuries:

2010: Missed part of one game due to an internal injury after landing hard on the football after a touchdown catch.

2008: Missed about half the season due to a broken fibula.

NFL Combine Stats:
4.75 40-yard dash
34.5 vertical
10'2" broad jump (2nd-best by a TE at the Combine)
6.94 3-cone drill
4.15 20-yard shuttle (2nd-best by a TE)
25 bench press reps at 225 lbs (tied for 3rd-best TE)
Wonderlic score (unconfirmed): 21


Positives
Sure-handed catcher. Attacks the ball and highpoints it in the air. Great spring in his legs and great body control. Outstanding athleticism and movement. Versatile; can line up anywhere,on the line, flexed, split wide, in the wing, fullback, and more. Can stretch the seam and escape LBs covering man-to-man. Linebackers can't stay with him. Has good field awareness and can run routes all over the field. Gets off the line in a hurry. Legitimate deep threat down the seam. Has good moves to free himself at the line of scrimmage. Has the hands of a wide receiver. Originally played WR at Wisconsin. Has enough speed and elusiveness to be used on reverses. Impressive weight-room strength translates to the field. Willing blocker who can create movement in the run game and connect on the second level. Finishes his blocks and decleats defenders when he has an angle. Very productive. Has a frame to grow into and upside to become a mismatch piece.

Negatives
Arrested in 2008 after driving a MOPED with a blood-alcohol level of .19. Underage drinking charge against him was dropped. Less than a month after that, was cited AGAIN for underage drinking while riding in the car of a suspected drunk driver. Lacks ideal bulk to handle defensive ends in the pros. Could stand to get stronger, especially in the lower body. Can be muscled at the point of attack. Smaller defenders knock his hands away and get around him. Crosses his feet blocking at times and will struggle to recover from that in the pros. Can sharpen his route-running. Not a creative runner after the catch.

Compares to: I'm going with Dustin Keller, or a slightly-smaller Jermaine Gresham. Kendricks is right there in terms of size, speed, running ability and ball skills.

Fun Facts:
Lance is an award-winning artist who won a regional award in Milwaukee for one of his drawings. This is the best link I have to any of his work.

RamView:
This pick has Josh McDaniels all over it and is not a bad pick at all at the tight end position. It looks like Kendricks will be a piece McDaniels can move all over the place in the passing game and get big-time mismatches. They must have REALLY wanted to make sure to get a tight end, because they deferred bigger needs (WR, RB, DT) with enticing players to get him. In McDaniels I trust, but I NEVER would have drafted a tight end this high. Thumbs to the side.


Sources: Pro Football Weekly, NFLDraftScout.com, DraftCountdown.com (Scott Wright), NFL.com, Rotowire.com

Projecting pick #47

In USA Today's second-round mock draft posted this morning, Nate Davis has the Rams taking North Carolina WR Greg Little. So yes, that's TWO Tar Heels suspended all of last season for the Rams.

Little's got outstanding hands and size and would make a lot of sense there. I also get the vibe of a hot dog player and significant diva. And as I just mentioned, the Rams already have a player suspended from UNC last season (Yes, I KNOW the other player is Marvin Austin. I don't have to worry about him in this scenario; he's projected to Denver at 36.) I'd rather settle the Rams' major need at safety, in the highly unlikely event Aaron Williams slips to 50 as Davis projects.

Todd McShay's mock second round on ESPN.com gives the Rams GAAH! Torrey Smith. I'd sooner plunge needles into my eyes. In his scenario, Williams is gone; I'd take Mikel Leshoure, who McShay has going 57th, or Little (62), or almost any other receiver EXCEPT Torrey Smith.

Mel Kiper shows he hasn't done quite enough research by projecting Leonard Hankerson to the Rams at 47. The Rams don't like Hankerson. In his scenario, the Rams also have Little, and Leshoure to pick from. Also Ras-I Dowling, and the Rams NEVER pass up on a big corner, and, yes, Marvin Austin.

Every mock second round I've seen to date has Torrey Smith available at 47, so it looks like I'll be sweating out the second round tonight. Little's about the only receiver left I'd take at 47, and I don't even like him that much. But he'd be a far cry better than Darrius Heyward-Avery.

The Rams should either use their second-round pick on Leshoure, or get their safety situation squared away. Dark horse, Mason Foster for the hole at Will.

-$-

Update: Don Banks of Sports Illustrated is now projecting Torrey Smith to the Rams, with at least a half-dozen players on the board I would much rather have. Titus Young, Marcus Gilchrist, Mikel Leshoure, Greg Little, Randall Cobb, Ryan Williams, heck, even Leonard Hankerson.

It seems I am left with little choice. The only way to keep the Rams from drafting Torrey Smith is to prepare a draft page for him.

-$$-

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Rams first-round pick (#14 overall): Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Robert Quinn 6'4" 265
DE, North Carolina

Rankings:
Pro Football Weekly: #8 player overall, #2 defensive end after Da'Quan Bowers. Grade: 6.45, should become a quality NFL player, near-Pro Bowl caliber.
NFLDraftScout.com: #5 player overall, #1 defensive end. First-round grade.
Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News): #9 player overall, #1 defensive end.

DraftCountdown.com: #5 player overall, #1 defensive end. First-round grade.


Biography/Honors:
2010: Did not play. Ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA for dealing with an agent.

2009: First-team all-ACC. Second team All-America. 13 starts at right end. 52 tackles, 19 for loss (2nd in ACC), 11 sacks (led ACC).

2008: As true freshman, started 12 times at right end in 13 games. 34 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass batted down and two forced fumbles. Won ACC Brian Piccolo Award for most courageous player.


Academics: Major undecided.

Injuries:

2007: Required brain surgery his senior year of high school because a tumor blocked his spinal cavity and caused swelling in his brain. When surgery was performed, the tumor was determined to be benign, and Robert still has it. Reportedly Quinn was not cleared by doctors of three teams drafting in the top ten.


NFL Combine Stats:
4.70 40-yard dash (top ten for defensive linemen)
1.63 10-yard split time (unofficial, .03 off the fastest reported time)
34.0 vertical (top ten for defensive linemen)
9'8" broad jump
7.13 3-cone drill
4.43 20-yard shuttle
22 bench press reps at 225 lbs
Wonderlic score (unconfirmed): 26

Positives:
Three-time state wrestling champion, should understand leverage. Athletic build with long arms. Has frame to add another 10-15 pounds. Speed, agility and movement skills of a linebacker. Good tackling strength and balance. Forced eight fumbles in only two seasons. Dominant, explosive first step. Has good rip move and jab-step. Can explode off snap and fly by offensive tackles. Can dip and bend the corner with speed and has terrific finishing burst. Gave Anthony Costanzo fits in '09 game. Moves well laterally. Quick hands and feet. Can spin off blocks. Drops into zone with ease; Spagnuolo will love that. High upside and terrific work ethic. Stayed in top shape despite being suspended last year. Says he hasn't had a headache since his brain surgery in 2007 and gets an MRI every six months. Enticing athleticism and potential. Quality person and teammate.

Negatives:
Didn't play last year. Brain tumor is always going to be a concern. Plays too tall in run defense and is too light and weak at the point of attack. Slices inside too much against the run and loses gap integrity. Will sometimes miss tackles going for the strip. Not physical, getting by right now on instincts and awareness. Shows surprisingly little technique. Not a great finisher. Inconsistent off the snap. Is often the last man off the ball. Relies too much on speed and quickness. Needs to develop more moves. Doesn't sense pressure well or understand blocking schemes. Sack numbers inflated because he was unblocked, against an overmatched tight end or just inferior competition. Comes across as a bit of a hoosier. Bust factor is significant given his lack of polish and physicality against the run. That lack of physicality may limit him to being only a pass rush specialist.

Compares to: Leonard Little is a very tempting comparison. Very similar in size and I see a lot of Leonard in Quinn's scouting reports. Quinn and #7 pick Aldon Smith are very similar physically, but Quinn shows better burst, and bested Smith in most of the Combine activities.

Fun Facts:
Robert is a three-time South Carolina wrestling champion and says he'd like to guest star in the WWE someday. He'll probably go with his nickname "El Roy" as his ring name, though I'd recommend "Mighty Quinn." You'll not see nothing like the Mighty Quinn.


RamView:
Once considered a top-three player, Robert Quinn could be one of the steals of the draft. Bringing him to the Rams could be an ideal marriage of Quinn's raw ability and Steve Spagnuolo's ability to develop defensive ends. He should contribute in the pass rush rotation right away and eventually replace James Hall, and as a natural RDE, won't force Chris Long out of his favored left side. He clearly has rough edges to polish, but he can get bigger and stronger against the run and should fit what the Rams like to do on defense. Will keep our fingers crossed that his brain tumor remains relatively harmless - it hasn't bothered him since his operation - and give this pick a firm thumbs-up.


Sources: Pro Football Weekly, NFLDraftScout.com, DraftCountdown.com (Scott Wright), Cleveland Plain Dealer, ESPN (Adam Schefter)

More mock madness

At ESPN, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have joined Mike Mayock in projecting Illinois defensive tackle Corey Liuget to the Rams.

Aldon Smith, Cameron Jordan, Robert Quinn, and the WRs all off Kiper's board at 14, but Prince Amukamara was still there. Hard to believe the Rams wouldn't consider Prince a better BPA than a doughy d-lineman. But it's the second time today a highly-reputable draft guru has dropped him to pick #20 or beyond; is something up? Prince is almost an insta-pick to me otherwise.

Make that three; McShay also has Prince falling to Tampa at 20. He has the Rams taking Liuget over Prince and Cameron Jordan, among others, while having Aldon Smith go FIFTH to the Big Dead.

So, what's up with Prince Amukamara? Would the Rams consider him seriously at #14?

McShay's 7-round Rams mock:
1 - Corey Liuget. RamView has to seriously consider Amukamara here.
2 - Jon Baldwin. Tough to argue given the Rams' WR needs. Have to also consider Greg Little and Titus Young. Rams lose out on Mason Foster, Jaiquawn Jarrett and Marcus Gilchrist by the 3rd round. And Mikel Leshoure, who McShay ridiculously has going 58th.
3 - Johnny White, RB, North Carolina. I'm sorry, WHO? Problem here, is if you took Liuget first, the best 3rd-round values are DTs, like Jurrell Casey and Terrell McClain. I'd say the Rams would really reach a little for a CB like Brandon Burton in McShay's scenario.
4 - Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic. YUCK. Do NOT draft a tight end this year, Rams, not from this crappy a class. I'd far prefer McShay's very next pick, OG David Arkin. But with the Rams lacking a safety or an OLB at this point, I'd have to go with Shiloh Keo of Idaho or Lawrence Wilson of UConn.
5 - K.J. Wright, OLB, Mississippi State. Not a terrible move. But Delone Carter, Alex Green, Stevan Ridley and RamView favorite Roy Helu are all still on the board, among others.
7a - Deunta Williams, S, North Carolina. OK enough if they don't have a safety yet.
7b - Ricky Moore, OG, Nebraska. Let's take Tennessee WR Denarius Moore instead.

Off to the Draft Cave!

-$-

Odds of Rams trading down

Just checking the transcript of a Jim Thomas chat from Tuesday, and he puts the odds of the Rams trading down from the #14 pick at...

70 percent.

15% they trade up, 15% they stay where they are.

Thinking about this a second time, I wonder if he misspoke/mistyped, and
meant 15% trade up, 15% trade down, 70% stay at 14. That seems much more likely.

They should still be able to get Corey Liuget, or possibly Ryan Kerrigan, or (gulp) Mark Ingram, on a reasonable trade down. OR...

Mar-vin Aus-tin clap clap clap clap clap...
Mar-vin Aus-tin clap clap clap clap clap...

Just another bit of intrigue for tonight's festivities.

I have four player bios prepped and ready to go: Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Corey Liuget and Cameron Jordan. Watch it be none of those. Maybe I'd better get to work on Kerrigan or Ingram. Oddly enough, I haven't done one on Austin, either.

-$-

Mock draft madness

Just saw Rick Gosselin's mock draft. The Dallas Morning News sportswriter has been one of the most accurate mock drafters for many, many years.

And Rick Gosselin hates me. Just in case my head isn't spinning enough after he has FIVE quarterbacks drafted in the first TWELVE picks, he has the Rams, who have insisted all offseason that they're not looking for a successor to Steven Jackson this year, drafting MARK INGRAM, with Corey Liuget, Cameron Jordan, and Prince Amukamara (who goes to Seattle at 25) still on the board.

Anybody got a Tylenol? My head hurts.

-$-

Draft buzz: T-minus-one

* Bad omens. It’s only 9 a.m., eight hours before the draft, and already NFL.com is performing like crap. It’s OK, guys, I’m sure nobody’s going to be hitting your website tonight or anything. Also, reverse congratulations to Peyton Hillis, who, of all people, has been voted to be this year’s Madden Football cover boy, and therefore, Madden Jinx recipient. Hillis getting the Madden Jinx has to kill Pat Shurmur, whose offense is likely going to rely on slamming him straight up the middle into stacked defenses 25 times a game.

* The big reveal. I believe it was the great Roddy Piper who said, “Just when you think know the answers, I change the questions.” Mike Mayock, I believe the first person ever to have a 30-minute televised special devoted to his mock draft, did that to yours truly on NFL Network last night, mock-drafting Corey Liuget to the Rams with Cameron Jordan still on the board. (Aldon Smith, and of course the top two WRs, were already off.)

Mayock said he loves Liuget, a prototype 3-technique, who gets up the field, has discipline to stop the run, and is a winner. The Rams have a “huge” defensive line need because Fred Robbins just turned 34. I’m fine with the Rams picking Liuget, but I thought Jordan was this all-world lineman who could play anywhere and fit in any system, and I know he’s a better athlete than most of the first-round DE prospects. No, when Mayock projected Jordan to New England, he called him the best 3-4 5-technique in the draft and gave no hint the guy even could play in a 4-3. So now I’m as confused as ever. Liuget? Jordan? Jordan? Liuget? Bueller? Anybody?

Other interesting entries in the Mayock mock:

Arizona by-passing Blaine Gabbert at 5 to take Patrick Peterson (Gabbert goes to the Whiners at 7), which in Mayock’s eyes makes the Big Dead THE FAVORITES in the NFC West, assuming they pick up a free agent QB.

Prince Amukamara to Washington at 10 with all kinds of defensive linemen on the board. Mayock says their secondary's getting old.

Robert Quinn, who sounds like a terrible 3-4 OLB prospect, to Houston at 11 instead of Aldon Smith, who went 12th.

Mayock’s boy Anthony Costanzo to Detroit at 13. That explosion you heard was the TV in Brian Baldinger’s dressing room.

JAKE LOCKER OF COURSE being drafted in the first round, at 28, and Andy Dalton going 32nd, ahead of Christian Ponder. (Both on projected trades, but not projected teams.)

And NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Marvin Austin to Seattle NOOOOOOOOOOO

* Labor pains. I really need "NFL Lockout for Dummies”. Here’s what I think happened yesterday. Judge Nelson refused to grant the owners their requested stay of her order to lift the lockout, saying the owners haven’t proven they would be irreparably harmed. So it’s supposed to be business as usual while the two sides try to work out a new agreement. Nelson kicked the can back to the league as far as deciding what business as usual really means, making a cutesy remark that league business can resume whenever the owners decide, as long as they don't violate antitrust law. That’s as confusing as a David Lynch movie; I thought the NFL was exempt from antitrust law.

The owners will appeal Nelson’s decision – hey! – right here in St. Louis, in the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. The way NFL Network’s legal correspondent (there’s a sign of the apocalypse right there, the NFL Network needs legal correspondents) put it, if the 8th Circuit rules against the owners, the league year HAS to start, meaning free agency, trades, etc. are all in play, at least until the time the league has its case for reinstating the lockout heard. There therefore could be a 6-7 week “league year” while the case is waiting to be heard. The players have requested the owners file a BILLION dollar bond to stay the order, btw.

Like Charlie Casserly said, chaos.

* Team rumors. Path to the Draft discovered a couple of other teams in the league besides Dallas and New England, but not many.

Carolina – Still on course to take Cam Newton at #1. Mayock points out that Newton’s scrambling ability should help the Panther running game, as he’ll force weakside defenders to stay home.

Denver – Really, really, really likes Von Miller at #2. The lovely reporter reporting on “Broncos Cam” even indicated Miller can play all FOUR downs. What, he punts? Jamie Dukes argued that Miller would be a poor fit for Denver’s new system and that they need the big man, Marcel Dareus.

Buffalo – Go Fitz! QB’s not likely in the cards at #3. Dareus would be an insta-pick. Their next preferences are Miller, then Peterson, though the LSU CB is making a move. Dukes then steals from my mock draft, saying Buffalo would be unwise to pass on Gabbert for the same reason I thought they should take A.J. Green. They need to inject some excitement into their franchise.

Cincinnati – likely still looking at A.J. Green, then Dalton or Ponder in the 2nd round, though good luck getting either to fall that far with the air filled with the scent of panic from teams that don’t have a decent QB.

I say this will go either one of two ways. Either there will be no flurry of QBs at all and Cincy gets Ryan Mallett, or they’ll make make Colin Kaepernick the SEVENTH QB off the board at #35.

Arizona – HC Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t come across as being very enthusiastic about the possibility of drafting Gabbert, saying there’s not as much tape on him as there was of Sam Bradford. HUH? Sounds like they’re homing in on Patrick Peterson. Mike Lombardi’s scoop is that they want to trade down if they can’t get Von Miller or- A.J. Green? Who’s supposed to be throwing for the Big Dead next year?

You guessed it… Lombardi says, MARC BULGER.

And in disturbing news, I don’t know how it happened, but Randy Moss has turned into an old white guy. At least that explains why his career declined so rapidly the last two years.

Tennessee – still believed to have serious interest in Jake Locker at #8. Casserly now says he’ll be shocked if Locker lasts past #12, a notion he called “an Inspector Gadget reach” JUST LAST NIGHT. A second after that, he joked that his predictions are as accurate as Locker’s arm. Hoo boy.

Of course this show can’t go five minutes without talking about Dallas – HC Jason Garrett says he doesn’t want to be pigeonholed by needs, and wants to draft on talent. Oh, shut up, you’re going to take whoever Jerry wants to jam up your ass. More telegraphing from the Cowboys about trading down because they don’t have to be at #9 to get a decent OT or 5-technique.

Washington – ton of options for Shanahan, the latest rumor being a trade up to #2 to take Gabbert. Shanahan is staying very tight-lipped. Casserly thinks Washington may be the team that takes Cameron Jordan, who’d be a perfect fit there.

Miami – still believed to have serious interest in Ryan Mallett. Dukes adds to the speculation that somebody’s going to trade into the top ten to take him.

* Player rumors.

Late risers – Rob Housler, Florida Atlantic. 4.5 40, vertical threat at TE whose workout went so well it jumped him from about the 5th round to the late 2nd-early 3rd.

Brooks Reed – Clay Matthews-lite pass rusher with a Caucasian motor, still expected to go somewhere in the Mayock Zone.

Late fallers – Marcus Cannon, who was just diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but has an 80-90% chance for a full recovery; Da’Quan Bowers and Mark Ingram for their infamous knee problems. The declining importance of RBs in a pass-first league is also holding Ingram down. Adrian Clayborn, a former top-15 prospect, has fallen into the early 2nd round. Casserly teased for an upcoming show that Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn could fall out of the top ten, but left it at that.

* Playing the percentages. Casserly calls this year’s draft one of the weakest he has EVER seen. These are the historical success rates for drafting starters by round:

1st – 75%
2nd – 50%. Casserly says he’ll be shocked if this year’s 2nd round does this well.
3rd – 30%
4th – 25%
5th – 25%
6th-7th – 9%

Casserly uses these low success rates to make the case for trading picks away. The success rates in rounds 3-5 may also shoot a hole in the theory that teams can pick up starting RBs in those rounds this year. Most starters are first rounders.

So after eight weeks of draft coverage, NFL Network tells us most draft picks are essentially useless.

Think I’ll watch tonight anyway.

-$-

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Overdue website update

Just finished giving ramview.com a good scrubbing. The main page is all prepped for this weekend's draft, and I actually have this year's schedule up instead of last year's (I know, wow). All the game summaries from 2010 have been archived off the front page (but are still readily accessible).

Well overdue cleanup, and not a minute too soon. I hope it looks and works as well as I think it does.

-$-

Draft buzz, T-minus-2

* As the QB turns. Although it’s arguable that two at best are deserving of first-round status, the biggest intrigue about the first round of the draft tomorrow night continues to center on quarterbacks, with NFL Network believing as many as SIX could be drafted in the first round.

Though they claim they’re STILL undecided less than 48 hours before they go on the clock, the rest of the world still claims that Carolina’s taking Cam Newton first. Signs are that they’re at least going QB. HC Ron Rivera spoke to the press yesterday and seemed to be dropping hints. He wants to “upgrade” at QB while “tempering expectations” for the QB they bring in. Sounds like a draft pick to me, and a high one.

Talk is increasing that Tennessee is going to take Jake Locker at #8. Yes, the guy RamView called the next Brodie Croyle. On Path to the Draft, Jamie Dukes called that idea “a reach.” Mike Lombardi called it “an incredible reach.” Charley Casserly awesomely called it “an Inspector Gadget reach,” a turn of phrase I am certain to steal sometime this weekend. Longtime NFL scout Dave Razzano, though, calls Locker the next Brett Favre. Well, gulp.

Speculation on Tennessee taking Locker then fueled speculation that Miami could feel pressure to trade up to #9 for Ryan Mallett. There are going to be more busts in this year’s top ten than there are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame at this rate. Feeling left out of the wild-draft-a-QB-rumor business, ESPN.com’s bloggers’ mock draft has Minnesota taking Andy Dalton at #12.

Tempering this talk somewhat, Dallas Morning News writer and long-time draft expert Rick Gosselin, who should have appeared on Path to the Draft LONG before now, says Blaine Gabbert shouldn’t even be a top 10 pick because there are so many defensive players who are better picks. He did call Gabbert a potential franchise QB. Locker is his #3 QB, Mallett only #5, though more for mobility concerns than off-field concerns.

Torry Holt (!) appeared on the panel to argue that Christian Ponder is more pro-ready than Gabbert OR Newton, and that Kurt Warner is more than enough proof that you don’t HAVE to use a high pick on a QB.

* Team rumors. Path to the Draft talked mostly about the same damn four teams they did last night. What league are the Rams playing in next year? Because from this show, I’d swear the only teams in the NFL are the Panthers, Broncos, the freaking Cowboys and the freaking Patriots. TALK ABOUT SOMEBODY ELSE!

Dukes thinks Carolina should trade out of the first pick overall for extra picks, since they STUPIDLY traded their 2nd-rounder to New England for the great Armanti Edwards and don’t have a pick between 1 and 65. Not the dumbest idea in the world, but Panthers GM Marty Hurney continues to contend his phone isn’t exactly ringing off the hook with trade offers.

As good a pick as Marcel Dareus may be for them, NFL Network’s advice for Denver is to take Patrick Peterson or Von Miller at #2 and get their DT in the 2nd round, where they have picks #36 and #46. Again, not the dumbest idea in the world.

Mike Mayock’s advice to Buffalo is to take one of Peterson, Miller, Dareus or A.J. Green, unless they’re convinced Gabbert is a franchise QB. You know, I don’t think I’ve heard Mayock say if HE thinks Gabbert is a franchise QB. I think he does. RamView does, that is, he’s as much of a franchise QB as Mark Sanchez. Maybe Mayock will clear things up for me when he releases his mock draft tonight.

And, of course, there’s Dallas, apparently the most important team ever to draft at #9. Jerry Jones claims he’s not reluctant to draft an offensive tackle in the first round even though he never has. He also claims to be looking at 5-techniques. Dallas is rumored to have four players in mind at #9 and are telegraphing to the entire world that they want to trade down. Rick Gosselin’s prediction for the pick is a coin flip between Tyron Smith and J.J. Watt.

* Player rumors. Gosselin’s 2nd-round sleepers were Ryan Williams, who he really likes for his elusiveness and pass-catching skills. He called Akeem Ayers a potential steal in the 2nd round, which probably says a little for where his stock’s been going these days.

I would love to see Mayock actually run a team someday. Everyone in the league would beat Mayock’s team all season long with deep passes, thanks to his unrequited love for short, slow defensive backs. (Mayock himself was a tall, slow defensive back.) He pushed Kendrick Burney (4.75 40) as a 4th-round prospect who will be a starter (!) because he tackles, competes and was one of the best players at the Senior Bowl. A prototypical Tampa-2 corner. And, of course, his possible love child Ahmad Black (4.78 40), of whom he says for the millionth time to throw out the measurables (4.78 40) and buy into his production. Says he can play safety, drop into the slots, and play special teams. RamView says, though, that if you put him on your punt coverage team, your punts had better have six seconds of hang time. Mayock also continues to “bang the table” for Marcus Gilchrist, who he thinks should be a second round pick, every bit as good a safety as #1 safety prospect Rahim Moore.

Mike Lombardi did a partial second-round mock that again stopped well before the Rams’ pick at #47. Bruce Carter, Aaron Williams and Greg Little do not make it past 42, but Jonathan Baldwin did, as he did in Casserly’s last week. Just somebody to think about.

* Lockout chaos. The NFL’s lockout of the players remains lifted, and will for today, with Roger Goodell saying on the owners’ behalf that the two sides need to resume negotiations. We may get some clarity at the end of today on the effect of Monday's ruling on free agency and the draft. Players were not allowed to work out at team facilities yesterday, despite the lifting of the lockout. Jim Thomas reported one Rams player attempted to get into Rams Park for a workout yesterday.

Of course it was James Laurinaitis.

-$-

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Updated order of preference at #14

Hey, I don't get anywhere near the amount of time the Mike Mayocks of the world have to pore through materials on players in the draft, so of course I'm allowed to change my mind. Hell, I may be changing my mind Thursday night while the Lions are picking at #13. But this is how I'd like the Rams' first round to go, in order of preference. As of Wednesday morning...

1. Julio Jones / AJ Green. Hardly likely.
2. Cameron Jordan.
3. Trade down and take Marvin Austin.
4. Aldon Smith or Robert Quinn.
5. Corey Liuget.

If Da'Quan Bowers falls to 14, the Rams had better also pass him up. They'd show little sense exposing Bowers' knee to Dome FieldTurf eight games a year.

If the Rams don't trade up for Julio Jones, I think they're looking at one of three defensive players: Jordan, A.Smith and Liuget. And as I'm preparing player pages for the three, Jordan just gets more and more impressive. I see why he's thought more of as a top ten player these days. He's the intelligent kind of player the Rams love to draft, and he's head-and-shoulders a better athlete than Smith or Liuget. My worry's been that he'll have trouble adjusting to a 4-3 defense, but a) did I mention he's smart? and b) what do they run at the Senior Bowl? The 4-3, and he was dominant there.

It's going to be hard to get Jordan past the Vikings; they need defensive line, and Cameron's father was a tight end for Minnesota for 13 years. Hopefully they're so busy reaching for Ryan Mallett that they forget one of the draft's best defensive players.

Though it pains me as the president of the Marvin Austin fan club, as a citizen of Rams Nation, I heartily endorse Cameron Jordan as the first defensive option for the Rams' pick Thursday night.

-$-

Draft buzz: T-minus-3

* Winning. The big news of the night was the players winning their legal action against the owners, with an injunction being granted to lift the lockout. The owners immediately filed for a stay of the order, but (apparently) since the judge who lifted the lockout didn’t also grant the stay, NFL stands for National Football Limbo right now. Does the league calendar re-start? Can players be traded at the draft this weekend as well as picks? Is free agency now underway? Fans, as usual, are left with a lot more questions than answers, at least as I write this morning.

Echoing that sentiment, Charley Casserly said on NFL Network Monday night that there’ll be “chaos” if the league doesn’t get an immediate stay. On ESPN, Chris Mortensen raised the possibility that free agency could open the day of the draft. Talk about insane. I’m confident that the Rams would be ready for that scenario, but RamView sure as hell isn’t.

Mortensen also humorously tweeted that today might be a good day for Sam Bradford to sneak over to Josh McDaniels' office and grab a playbook.

* QB drama picks up. Three days before the draft, nobody’s really tipped their hand. Prevailing opinion says the Panthers are still taking Cam Newton. One guy who doesn’t buy that is Denver HC John Fox, who should know the Panthers organization, having just ended a nine-year run there. He thinks Carolina is leaning toward taking Marcel Dareus. Steve Wyche indicated on NFL Network that Newton’s the only QB the Panthers are considering, with Dareus and Patrick Peterson also in the picture. The book on Newton hasn’t changed much on NFL Net; it’s said he’s done and said all the right things, and is in phenomenal shape; the doubts are about his attitude and work ethic.

What does that do to Blaine Gabbert? Contacted six miles below ground in the NFL Network DraftCave, Mike Mayock says he shouldn’t fall past the top five, with Tennessee at 8 the worst-case scenario. Buffalo and Cincinnati seem set to address other needs in the first round and try to pick up a QB in the 2nd.

Gabbert may not even outlast Ryan Mallett by that much, as talk intensifies that the Redskins are planning to take Mallett at #10. NFL Network’s millionth scouting report of Mallett this month now says he’s not as immobile as the other 999,999 scouting reports make him out to be. Mayock praised Mallett’s football IQ and ability and suspects he will be drafted somewhere in the 20s.

Somehow, Jake Locker is still considered a first rounder among all this mess. #1 I-Heart-Jake-Locker fan Mayock says he’ll go in the top 16. Somebody will take him because they feel they won’t be able to get him later. Great worker with a big arm, but a 1-2 year project who’s going to have to be very protected at first.

That’s FOUR QBs in the first round; now here come two more, as Path to the Draft mounted speculation that one or more teams are bound to get antsy that they don’t have their QB yet, setting the stage for a trade up into the tail end of the round to go after Christian Ponder and/or Andy Dalton. The Steelers, Packers and Patriots could be well-positioned for a feeding frenzy at picks 31-33.

* Team rumors. 2. Denver – Broncos appear set to take the top defensive player available. Talk is that they’re leaning toward Von Miller.

4. Cincinnati – It's impossible to believe anything coming from the Bengals' camp right now. On one hand, it's said they're taking a QB in the 2nd round; on the other, HC Marvin Lewis claims quarterback is still very much in play at #4. Jamie Dukes says that Cincinnati or Buffalo should take Gabbert if he falls, and that the Bengals will take Newton if he falls to their pick.

9. Dallas – Tackle is the Cowboys’ primary interest. They want either Tyron Smith, Anthony Costanzo or even Nate Solder, and all of those are players they could pick up after a trade down. News like that seems to keep the Rams’ chances of trading up to #9 in play, should Julio Jones last that long.

13. Detroit – Dukes describes cornerback as the Lions’ overwhelming lead and that they should do all they can to get a top candidate.

17/28/33. New England – Path to the Draft spent FAR too much time yakking about the Patriots. There are 31 other teams, you know. Belichick’s priorities would appear to be offensive line – 1, defensive line – 2, but they have all kinds of options with their multiple high picks, including acquiring picks for next year; they currently have only five picks in 2012. Casserly thinks they should trade up high and add an impact receiver or pass rusher. Barring that, look at Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt or Cameron Heyward at 17, Allen Watkins and other o-line depth at 28. Yes, that’s a reversal of the priorities just listed. Dukes lobbied for Mark Ingram as a running game upgrade at 17 and said there’s plenty of tough, mean offensive interior linemen in rounds 2-4.

31. Pittsburgh – There’s little talk of the Steelers using their first pick on a DE, but that could actually be the position they address. They have scouted a lot of DEs closely.

* Player rumors. Robert Quinn’s draft stock may be suffering a late hit for a couple of reasons: long-term concern about his benign brain tumor, and on the field, he doesn’t appear to have value to 3-4 teams as an OLB.

Casserly said he won’t be surprised now if Da’Quan Bowers falls completely out of the first round due to the condition of his knee.

Casserly also made a case for practically every team in the top 10 to take Julio Jones. The Rams have no chance of getting Jones at #14.

One last speculation from Casserly: Mikel Leshoure to the Patriots or Packers in the first round.

Mike Lombardi speculated that Kyle Rudolph will be the first TE selected; that’s no surprise, but Lombardi believes Rudolph will go off the board before the third WR is chosen.

* Mock horror. In the ESPN.com bloggers’ mock draft, Mike Sando had the Rams take J.J. Watt, possibly the worst projection I’ve heard so far for the Rams. Corey Liuget, Cameron Jordan and Da’Quan Bowers were all still on the board, along with Mike Pouncey. (RamView’s hero Marvin Austin wasn’t even drafted in the first round.) In any event, Watt is one of the worst possible fits for the Ram defense, and I’m stumped why someone who follows the team as closely as Sando would recommend that pick.

-$-

Monday, April 25, 2011

Draft buzz, week 7

* Rams mock madness. Life’s getting a lot more complicated for Rams Nation these days in mock drafts. In a local correspondents’ mock draft organized by the Los Angeles Times this past week, Howard Balzer selected Cameron Jordan for the Rams, with Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers and Corey Liuget still on the board. Quinn falling that far, and being passed by the Rams’ correspondent, is an eye-opener to me, and leads me to think teams are more concerned about Quinn’s benign brain tumor than anyone’s letting on. I’d have to agree on passing on Bowers but would still take Liuget, a natural 4-3 3-technique, over a player who would be a conversion project for the Rams in my eyes. But Howard’s judgment is far better than mine, and at the least, tells me the Rams are less worried about Jordan becoming the next Adam Carriker as a Ram than I am.

On NFL Network’s Path to the Draft, Brian Baldinger mocked the middle of the first round and projected Aldon Smith to Houston at #11, followed by Jordan to Minnesota at #12. After Detroit STEALS Prince Amukamara at 13, Baldy had the Rams take RYAN KERRIGAN at 14, once again over Corey Liuget. That’s an eye-opener; not only is it the first time Kerrigan has been slotted to the Rams, it’s the highest I’ve seen him slotted anywhere. Then again, Adrian Clayborn, Phil Taylor and Cam Heyward all appeared in Baldinger’s top 20, so let the mock buyer mock beware. Baldinger also became the third different person on NFL Net to recommend the Rams look at Mike Pouncey.

Charles Davis’ NFL Network mock has Jordan going in the top 10, only on Mike Mayock’s say-so-by-proxy, as the network’s lead draft analyst continues to be holed up in Dick Cheney’s bunker or something. No mock draft anywhere has Jordan in the top 10 and we don’t know what team he’d be going to there. Dallas? Davis slots Liuget to Minnesota but saves Aldon Smith for the Rams.

NFL Network, which has never shown a full first-round mock, then proceeds to do a SECOND-round mock, taking for granted that all of Mayock’s top 32 prospects will be drafted in the first round. So Jake Locker’s a first rounder, then. Ha. Charley Casserly has Mikel Leshoure, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Little, Titus Young and Ras-I Dowling all off the board by 42, but STOPS there, never getting close to the Rams at 47. I’d be crossing my fingers really hard for Jon Baldwin at that point, with my 2nd-round board getting ravaged.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated agrees with RamView (and most of Rams Nation)that the first-round pick will be Liuget, though he still had Aldon Smith on the board, which would have changed my predicted pick. Though I think I may have mentioned I might just take Marvin Austin if I were the Rams’ GM. Have I said that?

Position by position:

* Defensive line. Mike Lombardi reminds the teams that only you can prevent bust picks at defensive line. Gerard Warren went 3 picks before Richard Seymour in 2001. Ryan Sims 5 picks before Dwight Freeney the next year. Johnathan Sullivan 3 picks (or so) before Kevin Williams the year after that (nice work, Haslett!). Don’t reach for potential with these picks. Look for work habits, desire, character and commitment before athleticism. Look for players who can rush the passer all three downs, and these days, their pass rush skills are more important than their run defense.

Lombardi’s top 4 DTs:
Marcel Dareus
Despite supposed character flags, MARVIN AUSTIN
Cameron Jordan – more consistent and versatile than Fairley and plays with better pad level
Nick Fairley

Da’Quan Bowers’ knee injury still makes him the riskiest of the high draft prospects on the d-line.

Baldinger had good reviews for Pitt DE Jabaal Sheard, a pure 4-3 end with great pass rush ability and a good motor, who Paul Burmeister confesses is being mentioned on Path to the Draft for the very first time. A little undersized at 6’3”, but a three-year starter with a good rip move and a good bull rush. Plays with a hand in the dirt. Was double-teamed a lot last season. His elbow injury is a situation that has cleared up, as is his character “red flag” (a fight at an art museum where police or security had to pepper-spray him). Could be drafted in the Mayock Zone. He also compared Adrian Clayborn to the Saints’ Will Smith, said he would have been a top ten pick had he come out in 2010. He also recommended people cool their heels on Combine bench press champ Steven Paea. Though he was Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, he’s a project, not a first-round pick. He’s talented but didn’t even play football until junior college.

During a lengthy interview, North Carolina head coach Butch Davis compared Robert Quinn favorably to Michael Strahan this week. Apparently there are a lot of Michael Strahans out there. As this interview was mostly about Davis’ own players, RamView refuses to put a lot of stock in it.

In another interview, Nick Fairley objected to criticisms about his work ethic, identifying that as the most unfair criticism about him. He says his maturation is what allowed him to have a 2010 season that was far better than his 2009 season. Always pressing for the important news, Casserly did get Fairley to admit he has sleep apnea and that he sleeps with the air mask-thingy. This has been mutated into rumors that Fairley falls asleep during meetings. I’ll bet he did, before he was diagnosed.

Ryan Kerrigan – passionate, very talented, always at top gear. Great energy and motor. In other words, Caucasian. Can play inside and outside (though I think that’s OLB/DE, not DE/DT). Great character. Got stronger as the year went on. Teams had to game-plan for him. Gets these good reviews from opposing head coaches at Wisconsin and Notre Dame.

In a wild bit of draft scouting via mind-reading, Baldinger thinks that Houston DC Wade Philips believes that Aldon Smith is the next Demarcus Ware, which will lead Smith to be picked 11th overall by the Texans.

* Wide receiver. OK, I lied about not listening to college coaches talk about their own players. Alabama HC Nick Saban said Julio Jones reminded him of Irving Fryar, a former #1 pick overall. Great size, strong hands, very physical. Has a different disposition than your average WR: more toughness, more physical a player. Has great long speed, too.

Davis tries to soften RamView’s stand on Torrey Smith as Darrius Heyward-Bey II. He says Smith’s a football player; DHB was more of a track guy who happened to play football. RamView still says Maryland runs a simplistic offense and that Smith only had to be skilled at running deep patterns.

In a studio interview, humble North Carolina WR Greg Little compared himself to Andre Johnson, at least in size and athletic ability. He also compared himself to Anquan Boldin as a pass-catcher and inside receiver. Claims he can separate from defenders and that his strength (strongest WR at the Combine) shows up in his run after the catch. Davis doesn’t exactly keep Little’s head small by comparing him to Brandon Marshall. Well, if cocky = talent, the Rams should happily take Little in the 2nd round if he’s there.

Another candidate is Pitt WR Jonathan Baldwin, who Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly calls the best player he coached against from this year’s draft. People questioned if Baldwin came to play every week, but Kelly never saw that as an opposing coach at Notre Dame or Cincinnati. Baldwin has great range, can go up and get the football, and is a matchup nightmare.

* Running backs. Mark Ingram says his knee is 100% and doesn’t know where the reports are coming from that say the knee is arthritic. His stock’s taking a tumble because of the reports, also because the RB class is deep this year and the success of RBs like Arian Foster and LaGarrette Blount means teams don’t have to spring for a RB early.

Mikel Leshoure, for instance, is freely considered to be moving ahead of Ingram these days. He’s a big, physical back, a downhill runner who can lower his shoulder and move the pile. He doesn’t have great outside speed, but he makes subtle moves at the 2nd level. Perhaps most importantly, Leshoure DID NOT FUMBLE IN HIS COLLEGE CAREER. That's a statistic I'd like to have heard from this show sooner than a week before the draft.

Stevan Ridley’s considered a 4th-round pick or later, but Casserly called him a 3rd-round steal, a 225-pound, 1-cut, downhill, physical runner. Perfect for a zone-rushing system. You can see why the Rams invited him for a pre-draft visit, too: he was also an offensive captain at LSU.

* Linebackers. Bruce Carter has been cleared for pre-draft workouts by the famous Dr. James Andrews. Baldinger suggested Akeem Ayers may be falling out of the first round, as his toughness and speed turning the corner are being questioned.

Tough week if your team needs linebackers, defensive backs or tight ends, sucks to be you. Signed, Path to the Draft

* Offensive line. Mike Pouncey’s become such a hot name in recent weeks, Casserly now says he’ll be a better player than his brother Maurkice. I eagerly await the next time Mayock comments on the eerie similarity of the play of the two brothers. It’s almost like they’re identical twins or something! Pouncey’s considered a good pick anywhere in the teens.

Tyron Smith, though, is picking up a bit of a risk rating. To be the frequent top-10 candidate as he’s listed, Baldinger asks, shouldn’t he at least be able to play LT? Not according to Casserly, who rates him the 2nd-best tackle prospect of the last two years, behind only Russell Okung, and ahead of Rodger Saffold, who he places fifth. That’s patently ridiculous when we don’t know if Smith can even play LT. We know Saffold can, and well. Also, it’s Nate SOLDER, not “Soldier”. Notre Dame HC Brian Kelly says Anthony Castonzo was the best o-linemen the Irish faced last season but called Smith a physical specimen and praised his athleticism.

* Quarterback. NFL legend Jerry Rice gave an interview in which he clearly opposed Warren Moon’s view of evaluations of Cam Newton. Rice said the negative reviews aren’t racism; the guy just isn’t accurate. He was all over the place at the Combine. Charles Davis later claimed Cincinnati would NOT be in the market for Newton if he does happen to slip past Carolina and Buffalo. Well, there goes my mock draft. If Newton gets past Cincinnati, it would be anybody’s guess how far he’d fall, likely to Minnesota at 12 or Miami at 15. Casserly says Newton can’t read coverages, doesn’t find open receivers, and can only hit WRs who are wide, wide open.

Some random dude from “universaldraft.com” came on Path to the Draft to defend Ryan Mallett, claiming the Arkansas QB’s getting a bum rap. They've dug up a lot of positives about Mallett which are being underplayed and says that since it’s lying season in the NFL, Mallett’s negatives are getting overblown and occasionally fabricated. (Universal Draft’s very thoroughly-researched, very pro-Mallett article here.) Paul Burmeister counters that teams have examples of “documented drug use” by Mallett. The two-minute-at-best segment did little but leave you dubious about both sides.

More importantly, if NFL Network is just taking random dudes who have blogs and putting them on TV, where the hell’s MY on-air appearance? I am the epitome of random dude!

Maybe I shouldn’t have asked for a dressing room next to Lindsay Soto’s?

Addressing a hot rumor, Casserly says Mallett would be a terrible pick for Washington, he has no mobility and he’d be heavily scrutinized by the D.C. media. Baldinger thinks teams like Washington are better off reaching for QB this year than waiting to pick one. How panicky do you have to be about free agency to take Ryan Mallett TENTH?

Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema praised TCU QB Andy Dalton: big kid, makes all the right decisions, makes every throw right on the money.

* Around the league. Panthers GM Marty Hurney claims he’s still undecided on who to take first overall, and that his phone isn’t ringing, either. He did compliment Cam Newton’s competitiveness.

To their credit, Path to the Draft is coming back around this week and doing draft profiles for the teams they inexplicably skipped earlier in the month. To their discredit, it’s mostly being done by NFL Net people, not local reporters, so there was little reason to skip anyone IN THE FIRST PLACE.

We do start with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Gerry Dulac, who says the Steelers’ weakest position is corner, which they need even if they can re-sign free agent Ike Taylor. Dulac’s pick is Aaron Williams. They also need d-line, where Cam Heyward would be an excellent addition. Adrian Clayborn’s also mentioned, as is STEVEN PAEA, as an eventual replacement for an aging Casey Hampton. Davis brings up Danny Watkins to salvage my mock draft.

The Ravens need offensive linemen, but Davis points out that they have FIVE WRs over the age of 30, then steals his Titus Young idea off of MY mock draft. Names kicked around: Carimi, Sherrod, Torrey Smith, Jonathan Baldwin or pass rushers like Akeem Ayers or Brooks Reed. Becoming a draft analyst from out of nowhere, Paul Burmeister picks Jimmy Smith. Not a bad pick, maybe.

Steve Wyche says the Seahawks like Ryan Mallett and Christian Ponder and would take either at #25 even if Jake Locker were still on the board. RamView thinks Pete Carroll would have some ‘splainin to do in that event. Danny Watkins or Gabe Carimi would certainly help their offensive line, and with Brandon Mebane a pending free agent, they could easily go after (as Baldinger pronounces it) Corey LiJEET, or (NOOOOOO!) Marvin Austin. Gulp.

Wyche also previews the Colts, first saying that offensive line needs should trump any QB-of-the-future needs, then steals RamView’s analysis last month and says they’d take Carimi, though they’ve worked out Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, maybe with an eye toward the second round. Burmeister intones it’s hard to imagine Dalton will be available in the second round. WHAAA? OK, you can give your Junior Draft Analyst Club ring back now. Pouncey would be great if the Colts could get him, and they’ll look for a DB like Marcus Gilchrist in the middle rounds.

Baldinger says the Eagles will take Carimi, but make him their RG. Interestingly, Andy Reid has used ONE first-round pick on an o-lineman since taking over in 1999. Other names tossed in: Jimmy Smith (Davis stealing from RamView again), Aaron Williams, Greg Little (oh really?), and… Marvin Austin, who Casserly says the Eagles like as an inside pass rusher. Well, they didn’t go real wrong taking Brodrick Bunkley in 2006, the guy I wanted the Rams to take instead of trading down for Tye Hill.

The Bills are dropping hints that they want to pick Christian Ponder in the second round. Andre Reed, honorary announcer of the Bills’ 2nd-round pick Friday, reportedly tweeted Ponder to say he’s looking forward to calling his name on draft day, and the Bills’ brass likes his style. Unsurprisingly, that tweet has since been deleted.

The Redskins are reportedly considering Ryan Mallett AT NUMBER TEN.

HC Mike Munchak assures Tennessee that Vince Young is as good as gone.

The WHINERS have the most picks in this year’s draft:12. Philadelphia comes in second with 10.

* Notable workouts:

Whiners – Patrick Peterson, Taiwan Jones
Redskins – Julio Jones. Stay away, Shanahan!
Patriots – Mark Ingram, RYAN MALLETT?, JAKE LOCKER?!?!? Is Belichick putting on shows to bait teams into trading with him, something I suggested the Rams do (and didn’t)?
Broncos – Blaine Gabbert
Falcons – Cameron Jordan, Adrian Clayborn
Saints – Cameron Jordan
Bengals – Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton
Steelers – Aaron Williams
Dolphins and Raiders – Taiwan Jones. SHOCKER! The Raiders want to take a closer look at a speed guy. Guess who their first pick’s going to be?

* Wisdom of NFL Network. Baldinger said that this year more than ever, teams need to come away with starters in round 1 AND round 2. You know, I’m starting to believe the effect the lockout’s suspension of free agency will have on the draft is being significantly overrated. It’s not like the teams haven’t scouted the veteran free agents they might want to pick up yet. It’s not like there’s going to be a 12-hour-only free agent feeding frenzy the day before training camp. Free agency will be phased in sensibly as part of any labor agreement that is struck between, or thrust upon, the two sides. It won’t be chaos, and teams shouldn’t prepare for this year’s draft like survivalists preparing for nuclear war.

Mayock’s mysterious disappearance from TV did not prevent his player rankings from being updated. To wit:

Phil Taylor and Aaron Williams now in the top 32; Derek Sherrod and Kyle Rudolph out.
Tyron Smith jumped from 13 to 10, bumping Cameron Jordan to 11.
Cam Newton up to 14 from 16.
Sudden downgrade for Anthony Costanzo, from 11 to 16.

Those last two tell me these aren’t Mayock’s ratings at all, and that Baldinger has kidnapped him. Notify your local authorities.

* Movin’ on up. Casserly tried to project some plausible trade-up scenarios, and mostly came up with teams that need to trade ahead of Washington:

Detroit, if Prince Amukamara slides.
San Diego, if they’re specifically after Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt or Cameron Heyward.
Obviously, the Rams if they’re after Julio Jones.
Casserly also said the Rams could have a shot at trading down with Tampa, who might want to get ahead of Jacksonville for a specific defensive player.
Multiple teams will covet New England’s first pick in the second round in pursuit of one of the second-tier QBs.

RamView's likeliest scenario was San Diego trading up with the Rams to secure Jordan or Ryan Kerrigan.

* Highlights. Sometimes you can learn things from game tape that you don’t even realize. On a clip of a long Mark Ingram TD against Mississippi State, he runs away from LB Chris White like he was standing still. If Ingram’s slow, what’s that supposed to make White?

All of Greg Little’s highlights show a play where he pulls down a ball in a crowd in the end zone for the TD, then punts the ball into the stands, then appears to mock the referee for throwing the well-earned excessive celebration flag on him with a flag-throwing motion of his own. Yeah, not really an element I’m looking to add to the Rams at this point.

* On that bombshell… One of Path to the Draft’s “social network questions of the day” was to predict a draft bombshell for the first round. Davis’ ideas were four QBs being drafted in the first round, or Mike Pouncey going off the board as the first offensive lineman.

You know RamView’s draft bombshell: Marvin Austin goes in the top 14.

Or, just as unlikely a bombshell, RamView has caught up with NFL Network’s Path to the Draft coverage! I’m shooting for shorter, daily reports the rest of the week.

The Panthers are on the clock!

-$-

Draft buzz, week 6

* The instability at pick #14 of the first round continues. First, Julio Jones sailed well out of the Rams' draft range at the Combine. That switched Rams Nation’s focus to Missouri DE Aldon Smith. But as Da’Quan Bowers’ stock has sunk like Enron’s, and 3-4 teams have pricked up their ears and gotten interested in (I believe misusing) Smith as an OLB, it’s looking harder and harder to see Smith getting past Houston and Minnesota. That switched focus, certainly RamView’s, to Illinois DT Corey Liuget. But with Nick Fairley’s stock wavering due to attitude and “one-year wonder” doubts, Liuget’s starting to climb boards, and a fair share of mock drafts now have him going to Minnesota. Chances are strengthening, then, that Rams Nation is going to find its three favorite prospects off the board if the Rams stay at #14.

Say, have y’all met Marvin Austin?

* Wisdom of Mike Mayock. The day Mike Lombardi said teams have now gone into “liar mode,” NFL Network’s lead draft analyst Mike Mayock went into idiot mode. He says something like this every year…

“I would rather draft Dante Moch in the 3rd round than Justin Houston or Akeem Ayers in the 1st.”

“I would rather draft Marcus Gilchrist in the 3rd-4th round than Rahim Moore in the 1st-2nd (Mayock Zone).”

“I would rather draft Danny Watkins in (the Mayock Zone) than Gabe Carimi or Nate Solder or Derek Sherrod earlier.”

Mayock drives me nuts with this nonsense. Why don’t you have the players you would “rather” draft RANKED HIGHER THAN THE OTHER PLAYERS THEN? Is Moch that underrated? Are Houston and Ayers overrated? What?

Mayock disappeared from the air shortly after this, so I would like to make it clear here that I had nothing to do with his disappearance. That I would admit to in court.

Position by position:

* Wide receiver. As mentioned in this spot earlier, Kenny Britt’s arrest in New Jersey – he apparently tried to evade police trying to pull him over for speeding – now adds Tennessee to the list of teams in the top ten that will be interested in Julio Jones. Oh well, the #8 jersey is taken here anyway. Jones won’t be able to practice full-speed until summer; medical re-check revealed his foot fracture was worse than Michael Crabtree’s last year. Among current players, Jones compares to Dwayne Bowe on the good side, Legedu Naanee on the bad side.

Mike Lombardi floated a theory that Carolina would draft A.J. Green first overall because he’s (supposedly) a can’t-miss player, which they want to make sure they get, but that theory sank faster than a Cam Newton 12-yard sideline pass, 5 rows into the seats. Charley Casserly called Green the 3rd-best WR prospect this decade, behind only Andre and Calvin Johnson. Then again, he ranked Dez Bryant AHEAD of Larry Fitzgerald. Note to self: do not trust Casserly’s judgment on wide receivers.

More prospects:

Randall Cobb – Strong inside receiver and fearless over the middle. Mayock upgraded him to a top five prospect. Can return kicks. Needs to improve route-running.

Jernell Jurnigan – Troy WR had a huge game against Ohio State, so he can perform on the big stage. All-conference receiver and returner. Handled a lot of bubble screens. Threat to score every time he gets the ball.

* Defensive line. Da’Quan Bowers’ medical re-check revealed his surgically-repaired knee swelled up after his workout and that he has arthritis in his knee that could necessitate future surgery. He has an old man’s knee in a young man’s body. His practice time may need to be carefully managed, and he could have just a 2-to-5 year career. Casserly says that drops Bowers completely out of the FIRST ROUND on some teams’ boards, certainly his. Questions about Bowers’ effort are starting to crop up, too.

Buffalo HC Chan Gailey loves him some Von Miller, calling him an extremely talented player with a knack for rushing the passer, with amazing speed, explosion and quickness.

Aldon Smith – one of the quickest pass rushers off the ball in this draft; could be a dominating RDE if he puts on another 15 pounds. As mentioned at the top, 3-4 teams really getting interested in him as an OLB.

Robert Quinn may not have that problem. 3-4 teams might see him as a rush LB, but he hasn’t looked comfortable there. He’s an ideal 4-3 end with natural pass rush ability and elite ability to get to the QB. Don’t mess with what’s working, people. Quinn’s quicker off the ball than Bowers and definitely ahead of him on draft boards now.

Allen Bailey – 6’3” 285 with a great physique, and can play inside and out. His problems are that he gets stuck on blocks and doesn’t have great instincts.

Bowers isn’t alone with injury issues on the defensive line. Steven Paea had knee issues from college resurface at the Senior Bowl that have dropped his stock. His practice schedule may have to be limited. Jabaal Sheard’s coming off elbow surgery. His Pitt teammate Greg Romeus tore his Achilles last season; teams will have to wait A YEAR on him.

NFL Net’s love for Cameron Heyward really started showing this week. The Ohio State 5-tech dominated Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl and should end up with a 3-4 team drafting in the Mayock Zone. They like Adrian Clayborn, too, a lot more than RamView does. Heyward’s draft status is not affected in their eyes by off-season Tommy John surgery, nor is Clayborn’s by the birth defect that crippled his right shoulder. Caucasians Ryan Kerrigan and Brooks Reed continue to be described as “underrated athletes” with “great motors,” players with “passion” and “effort.” Mayock did compare Kerrigan to Ray Edwards at one point, but they fixed that by comparing him to Mike Vrabel later. Reed was compared to, of course, Clay Matthews.

* Running backs. Mikel Leshoure’s stock continues to soar. Big, physical back with first-round ability who can knock people backwards. Had a number of long runs despite lack of great outside speed. Natural comparison: Steven Jackson.

Mark Ingram’s stock, not so much, with rumors of knee problems similar to Bowers’ making the rounds. “Arthritic changes” within his knee have reportedly knocked him off some teams’ first rounds. Hell, Mayock’s not sure he’s a first-round pick fully healthy, though I don’t know where that slam came from. Deep left field, that’s for sure. He says he’s not a special back defenses have to devote extra attention to, while simultaneously saying he could rack up 1,500 yards in an offensive system like Denver’s. WHICH IS IT?!?!?!?

Demarco Murray is the leading all-purpose yardage gainer in Oklahoma’s history, and, hint, hint, Rams, is currently working out with SAM BRADFORD. Models his game after LaDainian Tomlinson and describes himself as a big game player.

Delone Carter – highly productive when healthy. Better feet than expected for his size. Big back with small-back skills.

Casserly calls Jacquizz Rodgers the next Warrick Dunn. Cal’s defense couldn’t catch him. He can play Wildcat, is a good receiver, and as a runner, can make people miss and finishes his runs. Pac-10 Player of the Year as a freshman.

Path to the Draft teased Taiwan Jones’ workout for weeks, then can only report his official 40 time as being in the “4.35-4.45 range.” Oh, come on. Jones, like his non-relative Julio, ran that 40 with an unhealed fracture in his foot. He may also need elbow surgery. Jones is fast and plays fast, a darter who can find the seam, deadly weapon on draw plays. Has to be broken of habit to want to bounce every play outside. Catches well but has a long way to go on pass protection. Grades as a third-rounder.

* Linebacker. Bruce Carter won’t be able to work out before the draft and likely won’t be able to play to start the season; he could well miss the upcoming season completely. A shame, because had he not blown the ACL, the Rams would be considering him seriously at #14 right now. Natural 4-3 Will backer with special ability if you let him run to the football.

* Secondary. Aaron Williams doesn’t seem to hate the safety tag like most cornerback prospects do. His size and speed are better fits for safety, and his cornerback skills will benefit him at the safety position. He moves best in nickel, covering the slot, and has great range for covering the middle of the field. He can blitz, support the run, and make plays on the ball. A lot of versatility. Compares to Malcolm Jenkins.

Mayock says Jimmy Smith is clearly one of the top 3 corners in the draft, and a top TEN talent, but suggests Four Pillars teams won’t be able to take him. Teams are worried he’ll implode off the field, and the team that drafts him ought to be one with a veteran locker room and should manage him carefully. That sounds like Philadelphia to me. Smith’s reported personal motto, btw: “Live fast, die young.” Niiiiice.

Buster Skrine, Josh Thomas and Justin Rogers got brief mentions as sleeper picks at corner, mostly because they run fast.

* Tight end. The gap at tight end after Kyle Rudolph is huge because he’s about the only guy this year who can catch AND block. Some prospects behind him:

Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin – Receiving TE; catches well, less of a blocker. Good effort blocker with balance. Not a big guy, converted from WR at Wisconsin. Lacks good separation.

Rob Housler, Florida Atlantic – Runs good routes, can get downfield, catches well. Had big TD play against Texas. Needs a lot of work on blocking, as does Virgil Green of Nevada.

* Offensive line. Not much o-line talk this week. The NFL medical re-check revealed back, knee and foot “issues” for Anthony Costanzo, though nothing apparently serious. Tyron Smith is also flagged, for swelling in his surgically-repaired knee, but apparently nothing as serious as Bowers’ problems. This has still raised the question of whether or not he can participate in a full practice schedule. Rodney Hudson was praised again, for his quick hands – “gets his hands on you and it’s over” – and was compared favorably to Ryan Kalil.

* Quarterback. I don’t know when or how Path to the Draft decided that Christian Ponder vs. Andy Dalton was THE burning question of this year’s draft, but they sure can’t stop comparing the two in depth. I’ll spare a non-caring Rams Nation a ton of analysis and just say they rate Ponder as a 2nd-rounder, Dalton as a 3rd-rounder, although there appears to be little doubt Dalton actually won’t last past the Mayock Zone. Ponder gets the edge for experience in a pro-style offense. They both (wisely) get the edge over Jake Locker.

Charles Davis continues to beat the drum for Ryan Mallett going 12 to the Vikings or 15 to the Dolphins. For his part, Mallett says his (drug) record at Arkansas is clean, and he’s past talking about it. Kind of like Mark McGwire.

* More mockery. Not content to simply butcher the top ten in their mock drafts, the NFL Net analysts are now branching out into picks 11-20. Charley Casserly has Corey Liuget going to Minnesota at 12, but has Aldon Smith lasting to the Rams at 14. He dumps Bowers out of the top 20 due to the knee report but leaves Mark Ingram at 15. More to come next post.

* Around the league. Path to the Draft gets the top 5 on the clock, starting with the Big Dead and their website contributor Darren Urban. Urban believes Arizona would pass on Blaine Gabbert at #5 and take a defensive player, and mentions the answer to their QB situation would be… MARC BULGER. He’d take Von Miller if he falls to 5. RamView thinks the Big Dead, who managed to rank 18th in sacks last season while being one of the worst quarterbacked teams ever, would be nuts to pass on Gabbert at that spot.

Solomon Wilcots says Bengals GM Mike Brown will not trade Carson Palmer, not wanting to set a precedent of letting players dictate their own free agency with the retirement gambit. Then again, Palmer has earned some $75-odd million from the Bengals and could easily be ready to quit, and Wilcots takes him seriously, too. Marvin Lewis claims to like Cam Newton a lot, but Wilcots smells smoke there and has the Bengals going after one of the top defensive linemen. Lombardi thinks Cincy will go WR first, then QB early in the 2nd round.

Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com says they’re very confident that RYAN FITZPATRICK can lead them to the playoffs. Cam Newton has leadership ability, Blaine Gabbert would learn the offense quickly, but he has Buffalo's preferences as Marcel Dareus one, Von Miller two, and get a quarterback in the 2nd round.

I am telling you, the Rams’ first round pick is getting more and more valuable with all these teams thinking they’re going to get a QB in the 30s.

Brian Billick pops up out of nowhere to analyze the Broncos’ needs at #2. He earns a paycheck by saying they could use Miller or Dareus or Patrick Peterson, seemingly with an edge toward Miller, surprisingly. They have four picks in the top 100 and should use them all on defense.

Finally, it’s Carolina on the clock, and again we get a NFL Net guy for analysis instead of someone who covers the team closely. Steve Wyche calls for Cam Newton, a “dynamic” player with “sizzle” and “it” factor, unlike anybody the franchise has ever had at QB, someone who can put a face on the franchise. Blaine Gabbert would seem to be denied any of these traits due to his Caucasian-ness. In RamView’s opinion, Carolina can draft all the “sizzle” they like, but in Cam Newton, they’re more likely getting chopped liver than steak. Wyche also suggests the Panthers could get a SECOND round pick for Steve Smith. That weird sound you all might have heard several counties away was me scoffing. I’d give you a FIFTH rounder for Steve Smith, tops. The Panthers are also planning to move on without DeAngelo Williams. And, it would appear, a QB who can throw with any accuracy.

Off the clock:

Dallas is reportedly interested in Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith or Mike Pouncey in the 1st.

If the Jets trade up to draft a player, get that guy on your fantasy team pronto. They’ve gotten Darrell Revis, Mark Sanchez, David Harris, Dustin Keller and Shonn Greene all on trade-ups, a pretty damn impressive track record. OK, Greene sucked fantasy ass last year. Could be targeting Phil Taylor, Akeem Ayers or Allen Watkins this year.

New England will look for linemen, offensive or defensive, if they keep their picks.

It’s been four years since Philadelphia stayed put at their first-round pick. A trade up or down seems almost inevitable from them. Jimmy Smith could be a first-round target but they’re also looking at interior o-linemen. Mike Kafka will keep them from missing Kevin Kolb too much, as will the first-rounder in 2012 they’ll likely get for him.

Buzz is increasing that the Colts could indeed shock the world and take a QB in the first round as Peyton Manning’s heir. They’d bring him up slowly like Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit could try to trade up for a corner, targeting Prince Amukamara. They’re also not as pegged to taking a tackle in the first round as most mock drafts say they are/should be.

The Bears are looking for offensive line and 3-technique DT. Charles Davis says Marvin Austin would be perfect for them (Shhh!). Casserly says if they drafted Titus Young, he’d be the most talented WR they have.

The Packers will look for a LT, WR, bookend LB or DE. Names tossed out included Cameron Heyward, Mark Ingram and Derek Sherrod. The show started covering draft needs by division with the NFC North teams, but in classic Path to the Draft fashion, never followed up from there.

Where the lockout is concerned, teams won’t be able to negotiate with their draft picks until there is an agreement. About all they can do is bring them to town for their introductory press conference. Teams won’t be able to talk to any undrafted free agents, either, and anybody who gets caught recruiting UFAs to their team is supposedly going to get fired for it. (Guess that’s worse than public urination, then.)

* Notable workouts:

Whiners – Von Miller and Daniel Thomas
Browns – Von Miller, 2 days, Da’Quan Bowers, 2 days, A.J. Green, Jimmy Smith, and… Cam Newton?
Redskins – Mark Ingram, Cam Newton, Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith, Nate Solder, Tyron Smith
Dolphins – Ryan Mallett, 2 days, and Daniel Thomas
Saints – Jimmy Smith
Raiders – Jimmy Smith, Marcus Gilchrist
Bucs – Mark Ingram, Tyron Smith
Bengals – Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas
Broncos – Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Daniel Thomas
Titans – Von Miller, Jake Locker
Cowboys – Von Miller
Jets – Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith, Tyron Smith
Chargers – Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith
Falcons – Kyle Rudolph (really?) and Marcus Gilchrist
Vikings – Jake Locker.
Eagles – Daniel Thomas and JAKE LOCKER?!?!?!?
Patriots – Tyron Smith

* Wisdom of RamView. It’s getting clearer and clearer to the truly delusional person writing this that the NFL Network guys are taking cues from RamView. Mayock has dumped Torrey Smith to #5 in his WR rankings and bumped up Titus Young and Jonathan Baldwin. RamView makes little secret of not liking Smith’s prospects. Asked to name a surprise pick in the first round, Casserly says, Chicago drafting defense. Huh, RamView has Chicago drafting defense! RamView was well ahead of Path to the Draft on the Marvin Austin and Rodney Hudson bandwagons, and in calling Julio Jones a T.O. clone.

Call me, Stacey Dales!

* Bust factor. Path to the Draft did an unusually informative and insightful analysis of why wide receivers and defensive backs bust. WRs who bust tend to be the ones who can’t separate, haven’t been able to get open against tight coverage. Young receivers’ biggest struggle is beating consistent bump-and-run coverage, and having size can work against them there, because they’re a bigger target to hit and re-route.

A DB will struggle early until he realizes he’s going to get beaten in the pros a lot more often than he did in college, and he’ll struggle until he falls back on good technique. New DBs have to learn veteran WRs’ moves, and use good technique against them. Receivers will use a DB’s athleticism against him otherwise and get him moving in the wrong direction.

Good stuff from this show, for a change.

* Crystal football. Casserly revived Johnny Carson’s old “Carnak the Magnificent” bit and predicted what past pro certain draft prospects will be the most like in 5 years. His choices:

Cam Newton: Vince Young. (RamView sticks with Daunte Culpepper)
Ryan Mallett: Jeff George. (RamView: Scott Mitchell)
Jake Locker: Kyle Boller. (RamView: Nice pick, Charnak. I’ll have to settle for Brodie Croyle)

This was good stuff, too, btw. Free “Charnak!”

Casserly also predicted in a separate segment that Mikel Leshoure would be drafted before Mark Ingram.

Mayock predicted the “big surprise” of the first round would be that the Eagles stay put at #23. Once again, I had nothing to do with his disappearance.

RamView thinks we’ll all be surprised how high Marvin Austin is drafted.

How about #14?

-$-

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Draft buzz, week 5

* I apologize for sounding like Jon Lovitz’s Tonto during parts of the last draft buzz post. The typos have been corrected.

On to week 5.

* Revolution number nine. Rumors, though possibly manufactured at ESPN by Todd McShay, are aboil that the Rams are trying to trade up with the Cowboys for the #9 pick overall. This would be a ploy to get ahead of the Redskins before they take the second wide receiver off the board, likely Julio Jones. Although I will admit I don’t know why Washington would spend a high pick on a wide receiver, lacking as they are a professional-quality quarterback to throw to him.

Another problem with that idea, if RamView’s annual Accu-Draft forecast is right: Jones and A.J. Green are likely gone in the first six picks, not ten. Even if I’m high (happy 4/20!) about Buffalo taking Green, he and Jones are very strong prospects to go to Cincinnati, and certainly Cleveland. Trading up to 9 doesn’t even account for Tennessee, who have never been that good at WR and are likely to be tiring of Kenny Britt’s off-the-field act, as he was just in a police chase in New Jersey and was arrested.

The Rams can’t realistically get ahead of Tennessee; the 49ers won’t be feeling real helpful at #7. They can’t get ahead of Cleveland, either, not with the Big Dead at 5. At 4, Cincinnati rarely if ever trades out of their draft spot, and last time they did, it didn’t go very well. For them. Yes, Steven Jackson has worked out just a little better than Chris Perry. I can’t see any of the top 3 giving up their spot without a king’s ransom and doubt they’d even discuss the possibility.

The Rams might as well stay put at 14 because I just don’t see any way they will end up with Julio Jones.

* Wisdom of Mike Mayock. With what I’m sure was amazing reluctance, NFL Network’s lead draft analyst and president of the I-Heart-Jake-Locker Club has demoted his Husky hero to the #3 QB available, now behind Cam Newton. Mayock may have broken up with Locker because he’s fallen for Andy Dalton hard enough to say he’d take him in the 2nd round before Christian Ponder. (NO WAY.) Mayock kicked Da'Quan Bowers out of the top 10 prospects for his lackluster workout and replaced him with Cameron Jordan. He joined the RamView bandwagon, late, by moving Marvin Austin up into the first-round prospect list. And he made Florida OT Marcus Gilbert and Texas DB Aaron Williams the 501st and 502nd players this year he has proclaimed as late first – early second rounders, the area of the draft now known as the Mayock Zone, where just about every god damn player in the draft resides. Mayock also became the second NFL Net analyst in recent days to tie the Rams to Mike Pouncey. Really?

Path to the Draft appeared to forget a couple of major positions this week, but here are some players they did discuss:

* Defensive line. Charlie Casserly’s top 4 4-3 DEs: Da’Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan. 3-4: J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Allen Bailey.

Corey Liuget, Illinois – though some teams are looking at him as a 5-tech, Liuget’s a classic 3-tech, 4-3 DT. An eye-popping player on tape, disruptive, quick and tough.

Nick Fairley, Auburn – some GMs may prefer Liuget because he has a higher floor, but Fairley has a higher ceiling, and all kinds of ability, though with real potential to be a bust. He has Ndamukong Suh-like nastiness and is a heck of a football player. (He also looks like a real smartazz in interviews.)

(If Fairley falls past Tennessee at #8, btw, it’s probably best for the Rams to let him keep falling if he makes it to 14. Tracy Rocker was Fairley’s line coach at Auburn last year; he’s now on the Titans staff. What kind of statement would it be if Fairley’s own college coach doesn’t want him or trust him for his pro team? Be very, very wary of a slipping Nick Fairley.)

Marcel Dareus, Alabama – rates over Fairley for #1 DT because he’s 25 lbs. bigger, and brings a warrior’s attitude. He plays every snap hard and has played through injuries. Capable of playing nose tackle, 5-tech or 3-tech.

Cameron Jordan, California – a top-ten prospect because of his motor and scheme versatility. All the 3-4 teams really like him, and many 4-3 teams are starting to look at him as a hybrid base end and nickel 3-tech. Natural pass rusher over the offensive guard but was shut out by Tyron Smith in the regular season.

Cameron Heyward, Ohio State – still seen as a first-rounder at NFL Net. Team leader, captain, 4-year starter. Ideal 5-tech who can play with another 20 lbs. on him and can kick inside. Brian Baldinger claims the Ravens will not pass him up at #27 overall.

* Running backs. Mikel Leshoure is moving up on Mark Ingram for top RB honors. He’s bigger than Ingram, stronger, more physical, and better at making moves on the 2nd level. He can move the pile and draws comparisons to Steven Jackson. Illinois pedigree of successful NFL backs like Pierre Thomas and Rashard Mendenhall also not hurting.

Some more RB scouting reports, all for RBs expected to go 3rd round or later:

Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State – a smaller version of Ray Rice. “Quicker than fast,” catches well, makes people miss. Had over 900 touches in 3 years, always answered the bell.

Shane Vereen, California – 210-lb one-cut zone runner who can push the pile.

Delone Carter, Syracuse – thick 222-pounder with heavy thighs but quick feet. Runs well and can pass-protect.

Dion Lewis, UConn – FIVE FOOT SIX. “Quicker than fast”, catches well, can really fool people in open field.

Taiwan Jones, Eastern Washington – may be fastest player in draft. Mayock said he’ll be electrifying on kickoffs; really? Downing balls constantly in the back of the end zone or watching them fly over your head is going to be electrifying?

* Secondary. Sleeper at safety: John Dempsey, Villanova. 211-pounder had a workout worthy of the top 20% of safeties who were at the Combine and is an impressive tackler on special teams.

Ras-I Dowling, Virginia – Ran in low 4.4s at his workout, excellent for his size. Only dropped one ball during a full workout. Tall, explosive and a natural ball hawk. Versatile back who can play on the edge and looks like a good cover-2 back. Looked a little tight in the hips, but that’s expected for a taller-than-average defensive back. As gifted as Chris Cook last year, and similarly, can expect to be drafted in the Mayock Zone.

Other than those two, Path to the Draft didn’t talk about defensive backs much. They did mention that Darren Walls ran a 4.39 at Notre Dame’s pro day. Mayock predicted that backs like Johnny Patrick, Shareece Wright, Davon House, Brandon Burton, Curtis Brown and Rashad Carmichael are all going to get drafted ahead of where they should, likely before the end of the 3rd round, because the depth of the position falls well short of the demand for the position this year.

* Tight end. A week after saying Kyle Rudolph had to run a 4.7 at Notre Dame’s pro day to cement a draft spot in the Mayock Zone, Rudolph ran in the low 4.8s, and Mayock pronounced him a first-rounder anyway. Credit to Rudolph for running that well just three weeks after being physically cleared. He showed quick feet, good blocking technique and excellent receiving skills, especially catching balls away from his body. Not the greatest athlete in the world; definitely needs to get stronger, and has a knack for getting injured. The usual pro comparison is to Rod Gronkowski since both men are obviously white.

* Offensive line. Besides trying to link Mike Pouncey to the Rams again, Mayock also said he prefers him at guard in the pros because he had a lot of bad shotgun snaps at center. As for people to put around him (2nd round or later):

Marcus Gilbert, Florida – 6’6”, 330 with long, strong arms. Bit of a finesse player. Played well at Senior Bowl.

James Carpenter, Alabama – 6’4.5”, 321. Durable player who competed well at the Senior Bowl. Finesse left tackle.

Orlando Franklin, Miami – 6’5.5”, 316. The most physical of the second tier of offensive tackles. Gave Da’Quan Bowers all he could handle in regular-season meeting.

James Brewer, Indiana – Developmental tackle with great feet. Just a two-year stater.

Jah Reid, Central Florida – Looks better in games than he does in practice. At the East-West Shrine game, he played well in team drills and looked like NFL starter quality. Looked horrible in 1-on-1 drills, though. Projects as a right tackle only.

Ben Ijalana, Villanova – looked great in positional drills at pro day and should be a 2nd-3rd round pick. 6’3.5” with 35-inch arms. 1.76 10-yard split, 25.5” vertical leap, 8’9” broad jump.

* Like to know more about available wide receivers? Or linebackers? Both huge need positions for the Rams? So would I. Path to the Draft basically ignored those positions this week.

* Quarterback. Path to the Draft talked a LOT more about quarterbacks this week, making the week all-but-useless to Rams fans and fans of other teams already set at QB.

First, it’s pretty clear that Brian Baldinger is after Mayock’s job. He came on this week to slam Mayock for daring to rank Cam Newton only 16th-best player overall and to say Ryan Mallett’s not all that talented, will struggle in the NFL, and isn’t the first-round talent Mayock says he is. Baldinger called Newton the most dominant SEC player since Bo Jackson, and says he trusts his attitude and work ethic. Mallett, though, is a statue in the pocket, and possibly has the worst mobility ever for a quarterback (and that’s a position Marc Bulger plays). Mayock repeated his mantra about Mallett’s cannon arm, but to my ears, the Arkansas QB sounds more and more like Ryan Leaf by the day.

Charlie Casserly feels Carolina can compete right away if they draft Blaine Gabbert and break him in like the Ravens did Joe Flacco. He then earned a ton of RamView cred by rating Sam Bradford as the best top QB pick of recent drafts, ahead of Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Gabbert and Mark Sanchez, in that order.

Quick notes on other QBs the Rams won’t draft:

Christian Ponder, Florida State – 6’2”, good, not great arm, good feet. Has played under center and understands the play-action game. Can start in WCO system but has limited upside.

Andy Dalton, TCU – also 6’2”, good arm, not great. Spread QB with a ¾ delivery (hmm, just like Sam Bradford). Great leader, loves the game. Drives the ball with accuracy when throwing intermediate routes.

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada – Lower-body throwing mechanics are messed up, but he’s a better athlete than TIM TEBOW, runs better, has a stronger arm. 2nd-round grade.

Ricky Stanzi, Iowa – Decent arm, has a chance to start eventually. Didn’t play smart at the end of close games. 3rd-round grade. Meh.

* Around the league. Starting this week with Larry Weisman of Redskins.com, who doesn’t expect Donovan McNabb or Albert Haynesworth to be back in Washington next season. In equally shocking D.C. news, the national debt is kind of high. Because he thinks the top 2 QBs will be gone, and, making an interesting point, thinks bust rate for highly-drafted wide receivers is too high, Weisman believes the Redskins should opt for Robert Quinn at #10. Their defense was terrible and needs another pass rusher. RamView thinks they could use another coordinator, too, but that’s another story. Washington’s still a definite threat to take a WR, hence all the rumors about the Rams trying to trade up to 9. They’re also a good trade-down candidate because their second-round pick, #41 overall, might come too late for them to get a very decent QB.

Covering Dallas at #9, the Path to the Draft cast decides to cover the Cowboys’ draft needs by themselves. Because it’s not like there’s anybody else out there covering the COWBOYS. Not much news here. Dallas needs a corner and a tackle, and won’t pass up Prince Amukamara if he’s available. They’ll draft corner/tackle over tackle/corner with their first two picks if they can because the tackle market is deeper than the corner market. A 5-tech’s a remote possibility.

A sobered-up Solomon Wilcots covered Tennessee at #8. QB is first priority, but with Gabbert and Newton almost certainly gone, Nick Fairley should be next on their list. He fits their scheme, is explosive and quick, and can tie up double-teams. They’ll have to get a QB with one of their first two picks, though, and may luck out and get Locker or Mallett in the 2nd. Charlie Casserly thinks the Titans will consider Mallett and Locker with their FIRST round pick. Mayock threw in a curveball with Amukamara, because the Titans have no size in their secondary.

Short and sweet for the Whiners at #7. Casserly and I agree that Alex Smith needs a fresh start somewhere else, but there’s little chance San Francisco is going to find a QB of the future, or Von Miller, available with their first pick. Amukamara would be a sound pick that fills a need in their secondary.

Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a complicated picture to sort out with the Browns. Signs point to them taking a blue-chip WR, but it would be a tough call for them if Patrick Peterson is on the board. And, as they’re switching to a 4-3 while lacking any decent 4-3 defensive ends, they’d have to go with Bowers if they feel he’s healthy enough, or go with Robert Quinn. Their needs may have DE on the top of their board. Not an easy situation to puzzle out, so Cleveland may be the linchpin for the rest of the 1st round. I’d expect a franchise that just hired Pat Shurmur as a head coach and Dick Jauron as a defensive coordinator to just go with the most BORING player available, but that’s just me.

* Notable workouts:

Seattle: Jake Locker. SHOCKER!!!! They also had Ryan Mallett in, for TWO days.

Whiners: Mallett and Ricky Stanzi. Jim Harbaugh must not be so sold on Alex Smith after all.

Carolina: two days with Cam Newton. Also worked out A.J. Green.

Denver: Von Miller.

Buffalo: Da’Quan Bowers, for two days, also Robert Quinn and Cameron Jordan.

Tennessee: Cam Newton, Da’Quan Bowers (two days again), and Marcel Dareus.

Indianapolis: Colin Kaepernick. Wait a minute, the Colts need a QUARTERBACK?!?!

New Orleans: Mark Ingram.

* Taking some shots: NFL Net posed a question this week I hardly expected they’d ask: Who’s the most overrated first-round prospect? Mayock doesn’t appear to see that much difference between Mark Ingram and TOBY GERHART. Casserly doesn’t see that much between Ingram and Stevan Ridley, who you can probably get in the 5th. Guess my initial instincts about Ingram after the Combine weren’t all that wrong, then.

Muhammed Wilkerson also came up. He’s a size/speed guy only. He plays soft and indecisively, doesn’t make plays he should make. Not that productive. Underachiever with inconsistent effort.

Charles Davis said he’d avoid taking Akeem Ayers in the first round, then Mayock dropped a bomb and said he’d avoid NICK FAIRLEY, ending the show leaving that just kind of hanging out there.

I believe it was Casserly who said, not in a good way, that Cam Newton isn’t like any QB drafted in the first round the last 10 years. Watching at home, I got the name “Daunte Culpepper” out of my mouth the same time Mike Lombardi said it. Lombardi and I also definitely agree that the most overrated player projected as a first-rounder this year was JAKE LOCKER.

Another question posed was, Who helped themselves, or hurt themselves, the most at their pro day? Marvin Austin and Tyron Smith emerged as the big winners, Da’Quan Bowers as the loser. Smith missed the Combine but made up for it by moving well and doing well in drills while bulking up 10 pounds. Akeem Ayers and Ryan Williams got good marks for improving on their Combine 40 times.

* Draft coverage notes: Carolina HC Ron Rivera has reportedly told Warren Moon that he thinks Cam Newton is worth the first pick overall. Though it's possible Rivera actually thinks otherwise and just doesn't want to be called a racist. Carolina is being lashed tighter and tighter to Newton in the gridosphere.

NFL Net is doing something I recommended in a recent post to improve their draft coverage: they have crews following 14 draft prospects around in a feature they’re going to call “Everything To Prove.” Only problem: “Everything To Prove” isn’t going to be part of Path to the Draft. Watching the sneak peek shown featuring Blaine Gabbert, this is something that should have been a daily part of Path to the Draft from the beginning.

Now that the mock draft’s done, I’ve still got about two weeks of Path to the Draft to catch up on, along with defensive back workouts at the Combine. And yes, the second half of the Senior Bowl. This weekend will be my deadline to review those materials so I can hunker down for the draft next Thursday. Stay tuned.

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